Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

That will make them think twice next they breach ceasefire.

This will teach 'em! God bless our young troops

I doubt it. These monkeys just can't learn. This was a good lesson but they need much more buttslaps to stop their skirmishes and sniper fires.

[bayhye]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Seems like we've lost a lot of kids this week... RIP heroes.

Vardan Vardanyan Arturovich (b 1994)
Garik Avanesyan (b 1991)
Eric Grigorian (b 1995)

Azeri's claim they've lost 3 this week too, which means they've lost a lot more as they never state their losses accurately.

All these people dying because Azerbaijan cannot accept they lost this war over an autonomous piece of land, and agreed to a ceasefire, decades ago. Shameful and sad.

[haydavid]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

It's either Voskanapat or Arshak Zakaryan releasing them. Both have ties to the military and serve as unofficial conduits of information the military wants to "leak" but that they won't do it directly for reasons that may include what you stated.

Okay now everything is clear. Thanks!

[AstalaVist]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I have a question.

What do you guys think about hiding our military losses? They basically want to demoralize our people. Their goal is creat a panic in the country, make young kids afraid to go to the army and by that they eventually want to weaken our army.

It might sound not too "democratic" but do not announcing loses will totally ruin their plan. I am aware that is not the right role model for our country but in my opinion at midterm it will save many lives of our soldiers. Which is way more important.

[bayhye]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I see what you are saying, but this is what the Azeri's do-- they don't allow a free press, and suppress this information. The Armenian press is much more open, there's lots of Westerners trafficking in and out of Artsakh, and Artsakh's population is tiny- 150K people. Therefore, it's not easy for the government to hide losses, and if they try to hide numbers and the truth is exposed, the government will lose trust. In any case, the front line units are the ones that take these losses, and I cannot imagine that the soldier's themselves don't know exactly what's going on and who is being lost.

I have a question.
What do you guys think about hiding our military loses? They basically want to demoralize our people. Their goal is creat a panic in the country, make young kids afraid to go to the army and by that they eventually want to weaken our army.

It might sound not too "democratic" but do not announcing loses will totally ruin their plan. I am aware that is not the right role model for our country but in my opinion at midterm it will save many lives of our soldiers. Which is way more important.

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I see what you are saying, but this is what the Azeri's do-- they don't allow a free press, and suppress this information. The Armenian press is much more open, there's lots of Westerners trafficking in and out of Artsakh, and Artsakh's population is tiny- 150K people. Therefore, it's not easy for the government to hide losses, and if they try to hide numbers and the truth is exposed, the government will lose trust. In any case, the front line units are the ones that take these losses, and I cannot imagine that the soldier's themselves don't know exactly what's going on and who is being lost.

Agree. The Azeri strategy is to hurt Armenian morale and inflict "death by a thousand paper cuts"- it is all they can do at this stage. They cannot risk a large scale offensive for many reasons: economic, strategic, logistical, and political stability which will all be exposed and hit hard- remember, all the Armenians have to do is absorb an offensive and should Armenians forces launch a counteroffensive (which they certainly would), well, that's it for Azerbaijan. It is also official/announced Azeri policy as of 2013 to stop the dissemination of losses by Armenian countermeasures, as it was hurting Azeri morale and already heightened sensitivities. So, they want to hinder Armenian morale, provoke an Armenian countermeasure on their own terms, make Armenians look like the aggressors, etc. The only way to fight this and the best way is to keep building up defensive capacity in terms of positions, equipment, etc, be more vigilant (expect attacks 24-7) which means rotating fresh troops on and offline more often ad fight fire with fire- snipe back harder and inflict more casualties. I have no reason to believe the Armenians are not already doing this though there are still inadequacies in terms of some leadership, night vision equipment, early warning, etc.

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Armenian Special Forces(Reconnaissance Units)

[Spetsnaz]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Հակառակորդի դիպուկահարի գնդակից զոհվել է ՊԲ զինծառայող

Դեկտեմբեր 12, 2015

Դեկտեմբերի 11-ին՝ ժամը 20:40-ի սահմաններում, Արցախի արևելյան ուղղությամբ տեղակայված զորամասերից մեկի մարտական հենակետում հակառակորդի դիպուկահարի կրակից զոհվել է ՊԲ զինծառայող, 1995 թ. ծնված Կարեն Արմենի Գրիգորյանը: Այս մասին հայտնում է Պաշտպանության բանակի մամուլի ծառայությունը՝ հավելելով, որ դեպքի մանրամասները պարզելու համար կատարվում է քննություն:

Հաղորդագրությունում նաև նշվում է, որ թշնամին շարունակում է զենիթային կայանքներից և ականանետերից հրետակոծել ՊԲ մարտական դիրքերը: Ընդհանուր առմամբ, դեկտեմբերի 11-ին և լույս 12-ի գիշերը հայ-ադրբեջանական շփման գծի արցախյան հատվածում թշնամին կրակել է ավելի քան 120 անգամ, որի ընթացքում, տարբեր տրամաչափի հրաձգային զինատեսակներով, ինչպես նաև 60 մմ (11 արկ), 82 մմ (66 արկ), 120 մմ (14 արկ) ականանետերով և ԱԳՍ-17 (16 արկ) տիպի նռնականետով հայ դիրքապահների ուղղությամբ արձակվել է շուրջ 1100 կրակոց: Հակառակորդը կիրառել է նաև ԶՈւ-23-2 տիպի զենիթային կայանք (35 կրակոց):

Պաշտպանության բանակը կիսում է կորստյան ծանր վիշտը և իր զորակցությունը հայտնում զոհված զինծառայողի ընտանիքի անդամներին, հարազատներին և ծառայակիցներին, ինչպես նաև հայտարարում, որ հակառակորդի գործողությունները անպատիժ չեն մնալու:

http://razm.info/77986

[Spetsnaz]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Damaged Turkish-Russian relations may negatively affect Ankara’s ties beyond Moscow
December 12, 2015

Turkey's downing of a Russian jet last month at the Syrian border without a warning shot over airspace violation may not only affect Turkish-Russian relations negatively, but it may damage Ankara's interests in international platforms as well as hurt relations with countries that have close ties with Russia.
The current crisis between Ankara and Moscow is not expected to escalate into a military conflict, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin calling the incident a “stab in the back.” Apart from the economic sanctions Moscow has announced, it appears Turkey may stumble upon problems at international organizations that may push it on its foreign policy issues, such as finding a solution to the Cyprus problem. Judging by the actions of Russia and the statements from countries aligned with Russia, it seems Turkey may also experience problems beyond Moscow in its bilateral relations, including most of the former Soviet republics, which have traditionally had good ties with Ankara. Even some Central Asian countries, with their ethnic ties to Turkey, may have to readjust their relations out of fear of Russia's wrath.
“Moscow would be playing with fire if it urged its Armenian ally to restart the Nagorno-Karabakh war with Turkey's ally Azerbaijan,” a report by the US-based Washington Institute for Near East Policy issued on Dec. 9 said. The report, titled “How will the Turkey-Russia Crisis Affect Ankara's NATO Ties?” written by former US Ambassador to Turkey James Jeffrey and the institute's Turkish research program director Soner Çağaptay. Russia's recent beefing up of its Armenian base, with attack and transport helicopters, indicates otherwise. According to the Russian RIA news agency, a total of seven MI-24 and Mi-8 helicopters have been deployed at the base near Yerevan, and one more batch would be delivered before the end of 2015, the Russian Defense Ministry was quoted as saying. Russia also has a military base in Gyumri, in northwestern Armenia close to the Armenian-Turkish border.
Nagorno-Karabakh is mostly populated by ethnic Armenians. Diplomatic efforts to find a lasting solution to the conflict have failed over the past 20 years, after Armenia occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijani territory in the early 1990s, including Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in solidarity with Azerbaijan.
In the meantime, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry said last week an Azerbaijani soldier was shot dead in a military clash with Armenian soldiers. Following a shelling by mortar fire from Armenia, the ministry also said Azerbaijan had to respond with mortar fire as well.
Zaman daily columnist Mehmet Çetingüleç posed a question in a column this week, saying “What are we going to do, if Russia pressures Azerbaijan?” Çetingüleç pointed out that Azerbaijan's Şahdeniz natural gas reserves will be an alternative to Russian natural gas if Russia cuts Turkish supply lines as part of new measures, but it will be not easy for Azerbaijan to get out of Moscow's influence area. Getting gas from Iran, Israel and Egypt will be problematic as well, Çetingüleç said. “The number of countries that we are fighting with is increasing. What a foreign policy to pursue.” he added.
After the downing of the Russian jet, another Central Asian country, the former Soviet republic Kyrgyzstan, started to discuss canceling their visa-free agreement with Turkey. According to a story from the private Cihan news agency, Kyrgyzstan Tourism Agency Vice President Mikhael Kim said last week his country would review the visa-free regime with Turkey due to a large number of people who are members of radical terrorist groups who live in Turkey. “For us, our citizens' safety and security is a priority,” Kim said. There are more that 600 Kyrgyz citizens fighting in Syria along with the terrorist Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), according to the Kyrgyzstan National Security Committee, Cihan reported.
Despite having diametrically opposing views on a number of foreign policy issues, particularly Syria, Turkey and Russia managed to maintain a reasonable relationship until the recent incident. The downing of the jet may have resulted in the beginning of a significant, comprehensive Russian policy shift toward Turkey, and it is likely that the estrangement between the two countries will continue even if the tension over the jet is eased.
This was the first incident of a NATO ally shooting down a Russian jet since the 1950s. Although NATO expressed solidarity with Turkey, NATO countries called on Turkey and Russia to find ways to reduce the tension. A recent poll by the Pew Research Center indicates Turkey was unique among NATO members because a majority of Turks don't have a positive view of NATO. According to the Jeffrey-Çağaptay report, “The confrontation with Russia will help change this fact.”
The Jerusalem Post reported a story on Dec. 10, saying “Turkish-Russian tension is not paving a road to Israeli reconciliation with Ankara,” according to Israeli diplomats.
“Israeli diplomatic officials on Wednesday downplayed speculation that Jerusalem intended to use the current tension in Russian-Turkish ties to move forward some kind of reconciliation with Ankara,” the daily said.
Israeli diplomatic officials say the Israeli administration is not proposing a reconciliation with Turkey, especially at a time when a “strategic relationship” is blossoming between Israel and the two of “Turkey's historic foes: Greece and Cyprus,” The Jerusalem Post reported. The daily was referring to the southern side of the island by using “Cyprus,” which is recognized by the international community but not by Turkey. Turkey recognizes the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) where Turkish Cypriots live in the north.
Greece, Egypt and Greek Cyprus -- all three at odds with Turkey, agreed on Wednesday to speed up talks to demarcate sea boundaries in the eastern Mediterranean as part of efforts to turn the region into an offshore natural gas hub. In a third meeting this year, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Anastasiades met in Athens to discuss how they could take advantage of gas reserves, especially after Egypt this year discovered the largest known gas field in the Mediterranean. The leaders set up a joint committee to work on tourism, investment and energy projects. They will explore the potential for new pipelines in the region depending on the level of gas reserves found in the eastern Mediterranean, Tsipras said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to meet with the leaders of Greece and Greek Cyprus next month, The Jerusalem Post reported. Diplomatic ties between Turkey and Israel took a downward turn in May 2010, after Israeli commandos killed eight Turkish citizens and an American of Turkish origin aboard the Mavi Marmara in international waters. Officials from the Turkish and Israeli foreign ministries had a secret meeting in Rome this summer for reaching a reconciliation agreement between the two countries.
In the meantime, Greek Cyprus and Russia are finalizing a deal that would allow Russian military jets to use Greek Cypriot airports in case of emergency, according to a statement made by Greek Cypriot Foreign Minister Ioannis Kasoulides on Tuesday, the Neweurope.eu news portal reported. Greek Cyprus will allow Russia to use its airports to evacuate Russian nationals from neighboring countries if necessary.

http://mobile.todayszaman.com/diplomacy_damaged-turkish-russian-relations-may-negatively-affect-ankaras-ties-beyond-moscow_406659.html

[Spetsnaz]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

World View: Russia and Turkey Try to ‘Blackmail’ Armenia into Their Conflict

Commemorations Are Held To Mark The Centenary Of The Armenian GenocideBrendan Hoffman/Getty Images
by JOHN J. XENAKIS
12 Dec 2015

This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Russia and Turkey try to ‘blackmail’ Armenia into their conflict
The mirror images: Donald Trump and Barack Obama
Russia and Turkey try to ‘blackmail’ Armenia into their conflict
Russian Mi24 helicopters
Russian Mi24 helicopters

With the dispute between Russia and Turkey showing no signs of ending, Russia’s Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has called Turkey’s downing of a Russian warplane a “casus belli” (justification for war), although he added that full-scale war is not planned. ( “25-Nov-15 World View — Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars”)

Russia already has soldiers stationed in a Russian military base in Armenia, near the border with Turkey, and those Russian troops have been put on high alert. Seven Russian Mi-24P attack helicopters and some Mi-8 transport helicopters have been delivered to another Russian military base in Armenia.

Even before the downing of the Russian plane, plans had already been announced for a unified air defense system, where Russia would extend its air defense system to Armenian airspace in order to contain Turkey in particular, and Nato more generally.

To add to the tensions, the day after the plane was downed, Russia’s Parliament introduced a bill that any individual who denies that Turkey committed genocide against the Armenians in 1915 is to be fined 500,000 rubles (more than $7,500). The Armenian genocide accusations have been infuriating Turks for decades.

Armenia is a long-time ally of Russia, but Armenia is concerned that it is going to be dragged into the Russia-Turkey against its will. According to Manvel Sargsyan head of the Armenian Center for National and International Studies, Armenia’s close relationship with Russia has gone on for many years, but:

Now, it causes big problems. At this point we can not abandon that policy; instead, the desire to create a unified air defense system will further those relations. Armenia has allowed Russia to use its air defense units. … Of course, the new situation in the region, and will deepen these processes, which contains many dangers.

Even worse, Armenia is being blackmailed into becoming a pawn in the conflict, because Turkey will encourage its ally Azerbaijan to provoke Armenia via the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. (See “7-Dec-15 World View — Azerbaijan faces rising radical Shia Islamist insurgency”)

According to Sargsyan:

One thing is clear. The conflict that arose between Russia and Turkey… makes use of the various factors involved. And if Russia so demonstrably raises the issue of the [Armenian] Genocide, it is natural that Turkey should remember the [Nagorno-]Karabakh issue to the parties involved in the conflict. Firstly, this is blackmail, but it would have meant that both sides are trying to involve Armenia in the conflict. And it creates a difficult situation for Armenia, taking into account Armenia’s and Russia’s strategic relationships, attachment to each other.

Sargsyan added that Turkey had hoped that Nato would defend Turkey’s claim that the Russian plane had entered Turkey’s airspace before being shot down. According to Sargsyan, Nato’s member states were opposed to defending Turkey, and so it was left to Nato’s Secretary General to make a statement defending Turkey. Thus, Turkey has created problems for Nato.

Now, according to Sargsyan, Turkey “is doing everything in order to be able to come out of this hole,” and so it’s involving other countries, including Armenia. Jamestown and Deutsche Welle and Armenia Now (26-Nov) and First News (Armenia, 1-Dec) (Trans)

http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2015/12/12/world-view-russia-turkey-try-blackmail-armenia-conflict/