Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Azad]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I have been following this thread for a long time. Recently, I decided to participate. I've noticed that nobody has yet (unless I missed it) discussed this research paper by the Caucasus Institute. It is a little dated as it was first published in 2011, but it is still worth a read. It was written by R. Giragosian (which many of you aren't fond of) and Alexander Iskandaryan. It provides an in depth analysis of warfare between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It discusses tactics, balance of power, status quo, military capabilities, and asymmetrical warfare, and a lot of other useful stuff.

http://c-i.am/wp-content/uploads/CI-RP3_eng.pdf

No one takes R. Giragosian seriously. His objective is to turn Armenia to Georgia's image.
I started reading you link it is ironic ..

"In terms of formal logic, this conflict can be analyzed by applying the asymmetry concept, alongside conflicts in Kosovo, Transdniestria, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia. The conflict’s asymmetry is manifested through the unequal statuses of the principal parties in conflict, whereby Azerbaijan is an internationally recognized sovereign state, while Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) is an unrecognized state entity which in the past was a part of Soviet Azerbaijan. "

The question why they mentioned all the "self-governing" entities in the Russian sphere and not some of the Western sphere of influence let say the Falkland Islands? It is garbage in my personal view.

[Mher]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Richard Giragosian lost his right to even reside in the Republic of Armenia when he published an article last year saying Turkey's invitation of Serzh Sarkisyan to Galipolli on April 24th was an act of good faith, and Armenia was wrong to turning it down.

I know people who have interned for him, though they weren't very knowledgeable on the issues, but they claim his heart is in the right place, and he isn't the davajan he comes off to be.

However, the evidence speaks otherwise

Also what Federate said: In 2011 the dynamics of the situation were completely different in many ways: economics, politics, and military. In 2011 Armenia was essentially still under martial law. Azerbaijan wasn't the North Korea it is today. Armenia's economy looked like it might collapse. Azerbaijan's economy looked like it might grow forever. Azerbaijan's army was buying toys like a kid at a candy shop, and its military budget was increasing by a ridiculous percentage every year. Oil was at an all time high, and not the wackiest expert on wall street would have guessed oil would be at $35 today.

[AbuSindi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

No one takes R. Giragosian seriously. His objective is to turn Armenia to Georgia's image.
I started reading you link it is ironic ..

"In terms of formal logic, this conflict can be analyzed by applying the asymmetry concept, alongside conflicts in Kosovo, Transdniestria, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia. The conflict’s asymmetry is manifested through the unequal statuses of the principal parties in conflict, whereby Azerbaijan is an internationally recognized sovereign state, while Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) is an unrecognized state entity which in the past was a part of Soviet Azerbaijan. "

The question why they mentioned all the "self-governing" entities in the Russian sphere and not some of the Western sphere of influence let say the Falkland Islands? It is garbage in my personal view.

I do not support anything Richard Giragosian advocates, however I do find certain pieces of this research paper both valid and informative. Start from Page 35 ...

[Azad]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I do not support anything Richard Giragosian advocates, however I do find certain pieces of this research paper both valid and informative.

I will go over his RAND corporation propaganda.

"An interdisciplinary scientific journal, Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict, has been published in the US since 2008. The editors defined the subject matter of their journal as seeking “to contribute to understanding and ameliorating conflict between states and non-state challengers,” which is the “predominant form of conflict in the world today, and will be the predominant source of violent conflict in the twenty-first century.” The concept of asymmetric conflict is actively used for the purposes of military-strategic analysis in the US, Israel, UK, Australia, and Canada. "
Is there a time frame when a "self-governing" entity becomes a state like Israel why not Artsakh?

"Approaches to negotiations also had to be adjusted. Attitudes to the status aspect of negotiations had to become more flexible: it is easier for parties to sit down at the negotiation table on the basis of formal equality."
Negotiation is required form the weak. We would like to "negotiate" Western Armenia. Maybe he can convince turkey.

"On the whole, the military phase of the 1992-1994 conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh complies with the theory and logic of asymmetric conflicts; there were, however, specific factors that contributed to victory. One of these can be defined as inverse asymmetry in the quality of the military training of personnel. In 2010, the Rand Corporation published a monograph “Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Sources of Success in Counterinsurgency”17 plus an additional volume with detailed results of the study, including a brief characterization of thirty anti-insurgent operations.18 Using case studies and comparative and qualitative methods, US experts examined the most significant asymmetric conflicts from 1978 to 2008. The analysts expressed the opinion that the Karabakh conflict had its own quite specific attributes and features.

Unlike many other local conflicts of recent time, the Nagorno- Karabakh Republic (NKR) – the formally “weak party” in the Karabakh conflict (numerical strength- and status-wise) – has demonstrated during combat clashes its superiority over the “strong party” (Azerbaijan) in the preparation and operational capability of its troops. Experts from the US RAND Corporation pointed out that, “the case of Nagorno-Karabakh is interesting because the insurgents were the more professional, better- trained and better-equipped force while the COIN forces were more of a rag-tag group of fighters.” The authors also remarked that one possible explanation of this situation may lie in the fact that “in terms of skills, the scales were tipped from the beginning. Because of discrimination against Muslims in the Soviet army, Azerbaijanis were likely to have held positions as builders or cooks. Conversely, there were thousands of Armenians in the officer corps and with frontline training.”19 "

Are Armenians Rand Corporation guinea pigs? With their analysis how could the "rag-tag group of fighters" win?


"Israeli-manufactured unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)49, which can create problems for the Armenian defense due to increased capacity to reveal the positions of anti-aircraft missile launchers and greater number of real and false air targets in Karabakh’s sky."

One thing they predicted right. The Armenian military will modify and adapt.

[AbuSindi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

One thing they predicted right. The Armenian military will modify and adapt.

"An analysis of hypothetical military and political developments
around Nagorno-Karabakh suggests that realistically, the following three
scenarios, with some variations, can be expected to occur:

1. Restoration of Azerbaijan’s control over Nagorno-Karabakh. The
necessary condition for this scenario is an exceptionally rapid
war – a Blitzkrieg – and lightning-fast capture of the territory of
Karabakh, resulting in the exodus of the local Armenian population.
This scenario can be compared with the “Lightning” and “Storm”
operations of the Croatian Army in May-August 1995, which wiped
out the unrecognized Republic of Serbian Krajina and restored
Zagreb’s control over these territories (it is worth noting that the
success of these operations did not only depend on the Croats’
military superiority but also on the support of Western countries
and the non-participation of Serbia, in exchange for a promise to
abolish economic sanctions against it).

2. War for independence and international recognition of the NKR. This
scenario is possible in the event that Azerbaijan loses its “blitzkrieg”
and that the Armenian parties sustain a successful defensive during
protracted trench warfare. A version of this scenario may include the
direct involvement of Russia and CSTO on the side of Armenia; this
may change the entire military and political situation in the region.

3. Protracted low-intensity conflict. This scenario is possible in the
event of rapid de-escalation of the conflict and failed offensive/
counteroffensive actions, or of the approximate equality of the
opposing armies’ potentials. The fighting may transform into trench
warfare along the current configuration of the boundaries, or slightly
altered in one way or another, and then into protracted low-intensity
conflict resembling the current situation on the front line. A similar
situation may also arise in the event that Azerbaijan unfreezes the
conflict but for some reason decides against further escalation and
large-scale war."

The recent events that unfolded directly apply to his "hypothetical analysis."

[Vrej1915]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

06.04.2016 07:04
«Վստահ եմ, որ հրադադարը չի պահպանվի». Հրանտ Մելիք–Շահնազարյան

Հրանտ Մելիք-Շահնազարյան

Չեմ ուզում հոռետես երևալ, կամ ավելորդ լարվածություն առաջացնել, բայց շատերն են հարցնում, դրա համար չեմ կարող չասել, որ.
֊ Վստահ եմ, որ հրադադարը չի պահպանվի;
֊ Ադրբեջանն այս դադարը օգտագործում է ուժերը վերախմբավորելու, հնարավոր է նաև նոր ուժեր ներգրավելու համար;
֊ Արտաքին ոչ մի կողմ չի կարող և չի էլ փորձելու զսպել Ադրբեջանի իշխանություններին;
֊ Հայկական կողմը դատապարտված է համոզիչ հաղթանակ տանելու;
֊ Լոխ լյավ ա ինյական։

ԴՈՒԽՈՎ

[Azad]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The recent events that unfolded directly apply to his "hypothetical analysis."

It is all BS. The objective is to sustain and retain the territories. With time things will change as it did in turkey and Israel.
Father of Sindi are you Armenian?

[Vrej1915]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[AbuSindi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Father of Sindi are you Armenian?

Of course I am, and in spite of my username, I am not Sindi's father lol. I was born in Yerevan.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan