Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Mher]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Russian lawyer: Artsakh resistance is a challenge for post-modern world order

Russian lawyer, member of the Civic Chamber of Russia, Executive Director of the For the Openness of Justice Public Committee Denis Dvornikov has made the following comment on his facebook page, against which Azerbaijan has launched a massive military assault these days.
“Artsakh resistance is becoming not only a strong military power but also a completely unexpected ideological challenge for the post-modern world order, in which a nation is not a nation and a state is not a state, where the ideal man in peaceful times is the Consumer and in harsh times the one who flees – the Refugee.
It is exactly for this reason that the world is in a shock and can’t believe its eyes when watching how men with a smile on their faces go to the front to fight for their brothers, for their land, for that boy who has been shot by an assh#le artilleryman in the schoolyard...
If the Karabakh Armenians had fled, they too would have probably been given a couple of German villages, their feet too would have been washed in St. Peter’s square in Rome, their crying men would have been shown on CNN and BBC too. But they didn’t run! To the contrary – an Armenian millionaire is taking his son out of comfortable Oxford and sending him to the front, and not to some elite unit but to the very frontline, under Russian “Солнцепек”s; because for him it is more important to have a son who is a real man rather than a son who is a leading economist.
I am very worried for Artsakh. I am very envious of Artsakh, where in that mountainous air such thick meaning of life is concentrated that you can already eat it with a spoon, like the hot Armenian Spas.”]
God bless the heroic, indigenous, Orthodox Christian Armenian people of Artsakh/NKR.
May 1,000s and 1,000s of invadonomad, Islamist, Turkic hordes meet their virgins in whatever ‘paradise’ the savages end up in.

what else can you say?

karabakh armenians single handedly shed the slave mentality of our entire race of crying for recognition and begging for help, of desperately trying to find someone to take care of us. If you could send back a few thousand karabakh Armenians a hundred years ago you could be sure there wouldn't have been a genocide. maybe 500,000 people would have died fighting, but we would still be in Sasoun and Zeytun.

[Haykakan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Heh Vrej really shows so many flaws in his arguments it is sad. So azeris cant get arms from others besides Russia because the others wont sell to it. I am curious, does anyone else actually believe this crap? Does vrej believe this crap? Of course not. So why does he keep posting crap like this? He keeps posting for inexperienced people who are easy to manipulate like our little shantik here. The facts remain facts and they do not change regardless how much cursing, crying, lying...you or anyone else does. Fact is we are and have been for a long time in a bad position. Fact is without Russia we are dead. Fact is we need Russia more then she needs us. Fact is countries including Armenia and Russia will try to do what is in their favor. Facts do not change because you do not like them, they only change if you do things to change the situation. Russia and Armenia need each other but are in no way equals in anything. Some people have an issue with accepting facts. If you do not like the facts then you should do something to change them but lying, cussing, crying, blaming others, lying is not going to do it. You actually have to do constructive things to see results. Building our nation is our only hope. Nagotiating a settlement may not be the worst thing in the world if it brings peace and prosperity to our people. We need to take advantage of our opportunities when they present themselves and that is all we can do. Talking out of your arse will get your arse into trouble, we should have learned this from the genocide years as the stupids like dashnaks started xxxx they could not finish. O we were mislead, o we were lied to, o the Europeans said one thing and did another...o that is because you were stupid and believed them!!!! If we as a people are dumb enough to make the same mistakes yet again, then we deserve to go extinct.

[Haykakan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Center for Research on Globalization, Canada
April 8 2016


Armenian-Azeri Tensions: Washington’s “Reverse Brzezinski” Strategy
against Russia and China

Part 2

By Andrew Korybko

The Reverse Brzezinski Unleashed

The Stratagem:

The author published an analytical research paper in June 2014 whereby
he expounded upon the geostrategic concept of the “Reverse
Brzezinski”, which is basically the return to the US’ 1980s
Afghan-style strategy of engineering debilitating quagmires for Russia
but which can also be applied against other Great Powers such as
China. The American perspective is that certain geopolitical
destabilization scenarios can be whipped up around the post-Soviet rim
which could take a tempting conventional Russian military intervention
to quell, although this in turn would actually be a predetermined trap
set by the US in order to tie Russia down in a needless war which
would then bleed it of its physical, material, economic, and strategic
capital. The three most likely Reverse Brzezinski battlefields are
Donbass, Nagorno-Karabakh, and the Fergana Valley, and it’s no
surprise that all three of them have seen a pitched uptick in violence
over the past week. Not counting the obvious and discussed-about
situation surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh, the self-proclaimed Donetsk
People’s Republic warned last week that a significant deterioration
was occurring along the Line of Contact with the Kievan forces, and
Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan just pulled back from the brink of a border
standoff that threatened to quickly grow into a larger conflict. These
three examples of post-Soviet peripheral destabilizations and their
near-simultaneous outbreak cannot be seen as incidental, but instead
are part of what the author had initially forecasted almost two years
ago about the US’ ultimate Reverse Brzezinski scenario against Russia.

Identifying The Culprit:

Nagorno-Karabakh map

Out of the three ‘probes’ that the US had launched in gauging the
viability of the next Reverse Brzezinski battlefield, the one in
Nagorno-Karabakh quickly became the scene of the largest-scale
fighting and the conflict with the greatest potential to rapidly
escalate into an all-out war. It’s unclear which side fired the first
shot that led to the latest spate of ceasefire violations, and
ultimately, while this is very important from a normative and legal
perspective, it will likely never be known 100% for sure owing to the
completely different and contradictory narratives coming from both the
Armenian and Azeri camps. There’s a convincing case being made that
Azerbaijan started it in order to assist Turkey and the US in the New
Cold War, but all of the aforementioned evidence of hitherto close
Russian-Azeri cooperation and dwindling Azeri-Western ties draws the
superficially simple explanation into question (although it doesn’t
discount it entirely). From the other side, Armenia has nothing at all
to gain by trying to lure its Russian ally into a renewed
Nagorno-Karabakh continuation war and would likely draw Moscow’s sharp
and immediate public consternation if it was even suspected in any
sense of probability that this was truly the case. With both the
Armenian and Azeri leaderships obviously not having anything of
objective self-interest to gain in stoking the flames of a new war
that could predictably involve Russia, all eyes once more return to
the US in pondering the question of “cui bono”.

The Fog Of War:

To repeat what was just mentioned above, it will probably never be
ascertained without a single shred of reasonable doubt which of the
two sides’ forces fired the first start that sparked the worst
outbreak of violence since the 1994 ceasefire, but it’s exceedingly
likely that a provocateur or group thereof on one or both sides took
advantage of the fog of war in instigating the present hostilities.
Neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan has full and total immediate control
over their frontline forces, and the edgy state of near-war tension
that they’ve both been exposed to for over the past two decades (and
especially recently with the latest September 2015 shelling) means
that a ‘jumpy’ and/or easily provoked serviceman or two could
effortlessly be manipulated into a militant response that generates a
disproportionate reaction by the opposing forces. In fact, judging by
the long list of ceasefire violations even before this latest
incident, it seems highly likely that this has been the case many
times before and might even have been tested out and perfected well in
advance of what could actually have been a preplanned Reverse
Brzezinski geopolitical sabotage attempt by the US. With both sides
restraining themselves for the time being and President Putin calling
on each of them to step back from the brink, it certainly looks like
neither one really knows who started the fighting first and that all
sides are scrambling to figure out what’s going on and prevent it from
unwittingly getting out of control and damaging all of their interests
before it’s too late.

Broking Peace In Beijing

It’s not known which direction the latest hostilities can go in, but
it’s clear that their intensity and scope are unprecedented for any
time since the 1994 ceasefire. The OSCE Minsk Group conflict
resolution party that was created in the mid-1990s and is co-chaired
by Russia, the US, and France has pitifully failed to make any
significant progress in improving the situation between Armenia and
Azerbaijan in its more than two decades of existence and has proven
itself by the latest events to be absolutely irrelevant in calming the
present situation. For that reason, a new format must be immediately
spearheaded in order to increase the effectiveness of conflict
resolution mechanisms and prevent the uncontrollable escalation of
violence between the two sides. The author wrote a three-part series
almost exactly a year ago about this topic and how the SCO, in which
Armenia and Azerbaijan are now officially dialogue partners, can
substitute as the most effective replacement forum for the outdated
OSCE Minsk Group and inject the peace process with the much-needed
impetus by China’s totally neutral participation. For the specific
details of this plan, the reader is strongly encouraged to read the
author’s articles about “The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: The OSCE Minsk
Group Is Obsolete”, “SCO Will Be The New Framework For Resolving The
Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict”, and “How The West Plans To Prevent The SCO
From Mediating In Nagorno-Karabakh”, but the following paragraph will
succinctly summarize the most relevant aspects of this series as they
pertain to the present article.

Latest meeting of the Minsk Group (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia,
France, USA and some European countries) took place in December 2015
in Switzerland.

Unlike Russia which various domestic Armenian and Azeri voices falsely
accuse of being “biased” one way or another, China has no such
accusative baggage a

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Armen, there was an Azeri guy who used to write for Zaman in Turkey until he ran afoul of Erdogan and got deported. I cannot recall his name but will try to find out. He'll be very pro-Azeri but not necessarily pro-war.

That's Mahir Zeynalov.

[argin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Though the numbers are results he uses are dubious, this a pretty decent synopsis:

http://www.unz.com/akarlin/nagorno-karabakh-war-15/

so it shows we lost more lands as days perceded?i doubt about talish,gazdiev posted video yesterday showing him taking a stroll in the streets of tallish village with armenian soldiers nearby.

[gokorik]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Talking out of your arse will get your arse into trouble, we should have learned this from the genocide years as the stupids like dashnaks started xxxx they could not finish. O we were mislead, o we were lied to, o the Europeans said one thing and did another...o that is because you were stupid and believed them!!!! If we as a people are dumb enough to make the same mistakes yet again, then we deserve to go extinct.

Here's a history lesson bro... the turks started the genocide not the Dashnks. We were mislead.... LOL. I think you're having an identity crisis.

[argin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

https://www.thinglink.com/scene/774750034259345408

Overview of Karabakh escalation
Interactive map

On the night of April 1-2, Azerbaijan initiated overt offensive actions in the southern, southeastern and northeastern section of the contact line with Nagorno Karabakh.
April 8, 2016
PanARMENIAN.Net - In the course of large-scale military clashes that lasted through April 5, Azerbaijani army used artillery, multiple rocket launchers, armored vehicles, military helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles (including combat drones), among other weapons. These military actions were unprecedented in terms of the overall scale and the amount of weaponry involved since the 1994 ceasefire agreement, signed in Bishkek. In addition to the frontline battles, the Azerbaijani armed forces carried out rocket and artillery strikes on a number of civilian settlements and places of permanent deployment of military units in Karabakh, with many killed and injured as a result. PanARMENIAN.Net presents the whole picture of military actions in an updatable interactive map with pop-up information on the main activities and events.

Notation keys:

Marked in red are the main directions of Azerbaijan’s attacks along the contact line

Marked in green are data on the two Azerbaijani helicopters destroyed by Karabakh Defense Army

Marked in black are data on Azerbaijan’s rocket and artillery attacks on settlements of Artsakh and the military crimes perpetrated by the Azerbaijani units against the civilian population of Karabakh

Marked in yelloware interesting facts about the military actions and data on the types of weapons employed by Azerbaijan

Marked in blue are summary data on the losses, suffered by the Armenian and Azerbaijani sides during battles

[Mher]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

so it shows we lost more lands as days perceded?i doubt about talish,gazdiev posted video yesterday showing him taking a stroll in the streets of tallish village with armenian soldiers nearby.

from the usually very reliably pro-Azeri reuters

Nagorno-Karabakh truce holds, but residents fear renewed violence

Elmira Bagiryan was leaving her village, at the epicentre of four days of fighting between Azerbaijan and ethnic Armenian forces, even though the gunfire had stopped.

"We are afraid that the shooting will begin again," she said as she prepared to get into a car laden with carpets, pillows, blankets and furniture from her home.

The village of Talysh was briefly occupied by Azeri troops during four days of battles over Azerbaijan's breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region which subsided on Tuesday afternoon when both sides agreed a ceasefire.

Russia said it had played a lead role in brokering a halt to the violence, hosting a meeting between military chiefs from Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The fighting was the most intense since a war over Nagorno-Karabakh in the early 1990s, and raised fears of a return to all-out conflict in a region that serves as a corridor for pipelines taking oil and gas to world markets.

The guns had fallen silent in Talysh, a few kilometres (miles) from the Azeri town of Barda on the northernmost edge of separatist-held territory, on Wednesday afternoon. Ethnic Armenian troops, firmly back in control, milled around, smiling.

There were signs, though, of the ferocity of the fighting of previous days. Several houses had been destroyed by shell fire. The hulk of a burned out car lay by the road. Nearby were the carcasses of several dead cows.

Bagiryan, a grey-haired ethnic Armenian in her early 60s, said three villagers had been killed.

Close to tears, she said she had spent days and nights in the cellar of a neighbour's house, taking refuge from the shelling.

Quiet had returned on Tuesday when the ceasefire was agreed, but she planned to leave all the same.

Other residents also were using the lull as an opportunity to get out. Cars and trucks loaded with belongings were heading away from the front line.

OLD TENSIONS ERUPT

The previous war between the two ex-Soviet states killed thousands on both sides and displaced hundreds of thousands.

It ended with a truce in 1994, although there have been sporadic flare-ups since. The ceasefire was shattered over the weekend, with Azerbaijan's army and the Armenian-backed separatists of Nagorno-Karabakh exchanging heavy fire using artillery, tanks, rocket systems and helicopters. Dozens of soldiers were killed.

On the other side of the front line to the village of Talysh, in an area under the control of Azerbaijan's authorities, there was no fighting on Wednesday. But there too was destruction from the previous days' clashes.

Amina Suleimanly, a 46-year-old teacher from the village of Akhmetagaly, said since Saturday residents had been cowering in the internal courtyards of their homes to shelter from shells coming from separatist positions a few kilometres away.

"They were shooting without pause," she told a Reuters reporter who visited the village.

A house next to hers was hit by artillery fire and destroyed, though it was unoccupied at the time. She said one local man was killed when some ordnance exploded.

RUSSIAN ROLE

Speaking at a meeting in Berlin with Armenia's president, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said urgent efforts were needed to make sure the ceasefire would last.


"Above all, everything must be done such that more blood is not spilled and lives lost," Merkel said.

Mediation in the conflict has for years been assigned jointly to envoys from France, Russia and the United States. But Moscow has stepped up its diplomatic role in the past few days.

Officials from both sides said the truce was agreed at a meeting in Moscow between the chiefs of staff of the Azeri and Armenian militaries. The Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin had telephoned the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia to urge them to agree a ceasefire.

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov were both heading to Azerbaijan's capital, Baku, in the next few days.

Russia does not have the same direct interest in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as it does in other territorial disputes in the former Soviet Union. In Georgia and Ukraine, it provided direct support to separatists.

However, its active diplomacy over the past few days is consistent with a push by the Kremlin to assert its influence, especially in places where the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama has elected to take a more low-key role.

http://www.reuters.com/article/uk-nagorno-karabakh-ceasfire-idUSKCN0X30DV

[Vrej1915]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Heh Vrej reallygo extinct.

Ay zaramyal bidzug, yess kez arten hazar ankam assel em, kordz tchuness.
Ko nman anugheghneren e vor mez ess oren en ktzel.
Park Asdzu, veranum ek.

Ay godoshavor anasun, tu tcheyir vor uzum eyir azadakryal Artsakhi tashdayin hadvadznere hantznel, te intch e mez bedk tchen??
Ay kez bedk tcheghadz et amen mi tiz hoghi hamar yenk mer lavakuyn dgherke zohum.

Ko lezun enhanrabess bedk er babantzer, vor khelked gdrer intch ess turss daliss.

Kordz tchuness.

[HyeSocialist]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Ay zaramyal bidzug, yess kez arten hazar ankam assel em, kordz tchuness.
Ko nman anugheghneren e vor mez ess oren en ktzel.
Park Asdzu, veranum ek.

Ay godoshavor anasun, tu tcheyir vor uzum eyir azadakryal Artsakhi tashdayin hadvadznere hantznel, te intch e mez bedk tchen??
Ay kez bedk tcheghadz et amen mi tiz hoghi hamar yenk mer lavakuyn dgherke zohum.

Ko lezun enhanrabess bedk er babantzer, vor khelked gdrer intch ess turss daliss.

Kordz tchuness.

It's not his fault. There are even those in Russia who miss the same Stalin who massacred his own people far worse than hitler did to his enemies. In America after the revolution we had conspireres that wanted to reinstate the king of England.

This is lesson to the Armenians. Be like the swedes or finns, defend ourselves and play alliances off of every side.