Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Hakob]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Crimea, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia were all backed and invaded by a Great Power. Crimea led to an international crisis and the international community placing sanctions on Russia. Palestine is a serious conflict that has drawn in the United States and regional powers like Iran. Falklands literally experienced a war between Argentina and the United Kingdom. Western Armenia is not even a disputed territory atm.

The South China Sea is being reshaped, BY CHINA, a Great Power. Almost every single one of the disputes you listed, with the exception of Northern Cyprus, has involved a Great Power. You can do better than that, cmon.

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This is the damage caused when some circles speculate that Russia or us or some other power wants to hand over Artsakh territories to Azerbaijan. People start accepting and talking that some land is going to be handed over.
Number one is it is never certain that any major power actually will want us to hand over any territories.
It will become a guarantee that they might support that idea when they see that we are not willing to fight for it. So it depends on us.
The second point is by bringing up Crimea, Abkhazia or Falklands you guys are making wrong comparisons.
Who says that we are facing a great power? Is Azerbaijan a great power? Loughable.
If anybody thinks that turkey is a great power, wait and see if it will come out one piece from the mess it's in. In a historical short term there may not be turkey left as we know it.
Third point. Do you guys forget who are we dealing with? TURKS. No matter how good brokered the piece deal is, the conflict will never end as long as we are there. Turks will never stop, specially after getting any land. And there is no any world convention or agreement existing or never will be from stopping Turks from breaking it at an opportune time. Giving up land is just that, more opportunity for Turks and less for us. Any piece piece of land once given is gone without any dividends.
So the only salvation is for us to be ready to fight and hold on to whatever we get. Even if one day we grab a piece of territory from Turks, then we must keep with all means.
Russia is willing to annul agreement with ataturk over one airplane but we cannot disregard Turkish territorial claims for our survival?
One more important point. So far I have not seen or anybody cannot prove that if war starts we will not win. On the contrary, everything in the past shows that Azeri war threat is not as bad so we hand over any territories.

[Artashes]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I didn't present it. Samvel did. I just expanded on it. The southern regions pose no major threat to Artsakh defenses, they are in the lowlands. Attacking from that region would be an uphill battle, and last time I checked we took those regions after an Azerbaijani retreat



I mentioned the great powers once, Azad started spewing nonsense (no offense) and stating things that were factually incorrect. Couldn't help myself, I had to correct him It was not the main point I was trying to make, and tbh its a bit of a strawman.



If you are suggesting that I am shilling out for ARF, then you are mistaken. I'm kinda in between ARF and Hayazn, however I only talk about supporting ARF because it is the most realistic option. If another party with a nationalist ideology presented itself, Id point in their direction instead. I could care less about the ARF itself.



Not insulted at all, this is a discussion. And thank you, glad to be here. I joined so I could update on military procurement and get assistance with the horrid wiki article on our army.



If you look at the map, I said I believe we should return Aghdam and the Southern regions in exchange for peace. The rest, along with Shahumanyan, should go to Armenia.




Artashes, why are you so hostile? Why are you also intentionally misinterpreting my points in order to build an argument?
Not hostile and not misrepresenting your points.
Russia or any of the other "policy" makers you refer to could not and did not stop azer turc from attacking us and aren't going to dictate any terms to us. We set the terms. No azer turc to our south and none touching Siunik from the east.


1. I couldn't care less about world opinion, and the opinion of the superpowers are not world opinion. They are not opinions either, but policy. They are the mediators of this conflict. What they say goes. If Russia says jump, the puppets in our government will purchase a plane and begin flying over Putin's head. The same goes for the baboons.
--- what they say goes --- I disagree completely.
Their mediation has been worthless for us but allowed them to placate the azer turc so they could benefit in their dealings with the oil rich hominoids (azer turc). That s gotta stop and now is the time to stop it.
Read Hacobs post below. It makes a lot more sense to me than your posts.
No hostility, just my opinion greatly different than yours.
2. We could be fighting Eskimos, it doesn't matter when it comes to the peace process and geographic political boundaries. It plays no factor and is irrelevant.

3. Respected Armenian tacticians disagree with you. Perhaps you should reflect a bit on that.

4. This potential for war is a suicide pact and the unwillingness to return desolate, depopulated land only strengthens the likelihood of this pact.

Our heartland is to the West. We should settle this dispute in the interests of Artsakh as quickly as possible, and continue on to liberate our former territories from Turkish occupation.

----—-—-
This is the damage caused when some circles speculate that Russia or us or some other power wants to hand over Artsakh territories to Azerbaijan. People start accepting and talking that some land is going to be handed over.
Number one is it is never certain that any major power actually will want us to hand over any territories.
It will become a guarantee that they might support that idea when they see that we are not willing to fight for it. So it depends on us.
The second point is by bringing up Crimea, Abkhazia or Falklands you guys are making wrong comparisons.
Who says that we are facing a great power? Is Azerbaijan a great power? Loughable.
If anybody thinks that turkey is a great power, wait and see if it will come out one piece from the mess it's in. In a historical short term there may not be turkey left as we know it.
Third point. Do you guys forget who are we dealing with? TURKS. No matter how good brokered the piece deal is, the conflict will never end as long as we are there. Turks will never stop, specially after getting any land. And there is no any world convention or agreement existing or never will be from stopping Turks from breaking it at an opportune time. Giving up land is just that, more opportunity for Turks and less for us. Any piece piece of land once given is gone without any dividends.
So the only salvation is for us to be ready to fight and hold on to whatever we get. Even if one day we grab a piece of territory from Turks, then we must keep with all means.
Russia is willing to annul agreement with ataturk over one airplane but we cannot disregard Turkish territorial claims for our survival?
One more important point. So far I have not seen or anybody cannot prove that if war starts we will not win. On the contrary, everything in the past shows that Azeri war threat is not as bad so we hand over any territories.

Agree with Hacobs post.

[Lori]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

----—-—-
This is the damage caused when some circles speculate that Russia or us or some other power wants to hand over Artsakh territories to Azerbaijan. People start accepting and talking that some land is going to be handed over.

I was not aware of this rumor, so I cannot comment on it. It has no connection to what I was suggesting.

Number one is it is never certain that any major power actually will want us to hand over any territories.

Every settlement plan includes a pull out of the buffer zone. The UN along with international organizations of Europe considers these territories "occupied by Armenian forces"

It will become a guarantee that they might support that idea when they see that we are not willing to fight for it. So it depends on us.

Who says that we are facing a great power? Is Azerbaijan a great power? Loughable.

I never said we were.

This is what I said

Yes, those are Armenia's options. The idea that those territories will remain under Armenian control with Great Power approval is naive.

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Third point. Do you guys forget who are we dealing with? TURKS. No matter how good brokered the piece deal is, the conflict will never end as long as we are there. Turks will never stop, specially after getting any land.

I agree, however I wouldn't exaggerate. They have their own national security interests and what not. Expansionist-Lebensraum style war is an archaic ideology that does not fit into the security apparatus of modern-states. Their dream is Pan-Turkism obviously. If you honestly believe that Azerbaijan has the ability to "never stop", then you will be surprised. They have their limits, so does Turkey.

no any world convention or agreement existing or never will be from stopping Turks from breaking it at an opportune time. Giving up land is just that, more opportunity for Turks and less for us. Any piece piece of land once given is gone without any dividends.

Coming to a territorial settlement with Azerbaijan would put any new legal Armenian territories under the protection of the Russian-Armenian alliance and mutual defense agreement.

Russia is willing to annul agreement with ataturk over one airplane but we cannot disregard Turkish territorial claims for our survival?

Im not sure what you mean by this, you will have to clarify or put it in Armenian text. I specifically and repeatedly advocated for territorial claims to Western Armenia, especially the former territories of the Armenian Republic. It is key to our survival and identity.

One more important point. So far I have not seen or anybody cannot prove that if war starts we will not win. On the contrary, everything in the past shows that Azeri war threat is not as bad so we hand over any territories.

Absolutely no one has ever suggested on this forum that Azerbaijan could win. In fact, its been quite the opposite. All you guys seem to talk about, looking at past pages, is the superiority of the Armenian Forces. The people on this forum seriously underestimate the enemy, which is very dangerous. I am just glad I cannot say the same for our leadership.

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

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[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

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I would like to pick upon couple of specific points you are making.

.....Armenia is superior to Azerbaijan when it comes to ballistic missile forces. We simply have way more which can overwhelm their air defense network. The acquisition of Iskander would only strengthen this......

I remember listening to one of our generals who was saying, we do have long range missiles but they cannot be fired from Armenia,
To overcome this, not sure the political implications of transferring such weapons to Karabagh.

Come to think of it although very desirable to have the Iskanders, who are we going to use them against.
It will only be possible to fire them from Armenia.

That will only be possible if Armenia declares war against Azerbaijan.
In that case we do not know what will be Turkeys reaction.

Russia does not want to find out. She has enough on its plate.

I 100% agree. Ceding some parts of the buffer zone back to the Azerbaijanis, which would allow their refugees to return, would be not only the right thing to do but the smart thing to do. We should retain Karvachar and Lachin, as those are vital to Armenian national and water security along with retaining NK itself. Aghdam, Fuzili, Zangilan, etc should be given back to Azerbaijan. These regions are nothing but desolate ruins and would become and economic burden to develop again. No one lives there as well. I know in the past 120 years, we have lost a lot - too much. Sometimes you have to compromise and Samvel is right here. Solving our problems with Azerbaijan peacefully would also allow us on focusing more of our effort on regaining regions like Kars, Ardahan and Mt. Ararat. We should have made claims to those lands yesterday....Things like the BTC pipeline would become a non-issue.

How I see things

I think the generosity of giving land back to Azerbaijan is misplaced on two counts.

Firstly we seem to think of returning “Azerbaijani lands” but nobody talks about Kedashen, Ardsvashen etc.
Something Azerbaijan will never concede through negotiations because they are smarter than us.

Secondly, even if we sign a peace treaty there are no guarantees Azerbaijan will not attack for all of Karabagh.
Recent events proved their mode of operation.
We cannot know the role of Russia in 50 or 100 years time in the Area.

Those lands are part of the defensive structure of the both Artsakh and Armenia.

Coupled with the fact that Turanism can never be eliminated due to its ideology and territorial scope.
We simply cannot afford such luxuries as land for peace.

Turanism does not seek peace but an objective.
That objective is not far from its target except for the brut force of Russia.
This objective only subsides from time to time giving a false sense of security.
We cannot oppose that ideology by helping its objectives.

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[Artashes]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

.

I would like to pick upon couple of specific points you are making.



I remember listening to one of our generals who was saying, we do have long range missiles but they cannot be fired from Armenia,
To overcome this, not sure the political implications of transferring such weapons to Karabagh.

Come to think of it although very desirable to have the Iskanders, who are we going to use them against.
It will only be possible to fire them from Armenia.

That will only be possible if Armenia declares war against Azerbaijan.
In that case we do not know what will be Turkeys reaction.

Russia does not want to find out. She has enough on its plate.




I think the generosity of giving land back to Azerbaijan is misplaced on two counts.

Firstly we seem to think of returning “Azerbaijani lands” but nobody talks about Kedashen, Ardsvashen etc.
Something Azerbaijan will never concede through negotiations because they are smarter than us.

Secondly, even if we sign a peace treaty there are no guarantees Azerbaijan will not attack for all of Karabagh.
Recent events proved their mode of operation.
We cannot know the role of Russia in 50 or 100 years time in the Area.

Those lands are part of the defensive structure of the both Artsakh and Armenia.

Coupled with the fact that Turanism can never be eliminated due to its ideology and territorial scope.
We simply cannot afford such luxuries as land for peace.

Turanism does not seek peace but an objective.
That objective is not far from its target except for the brut force of Russia.
This objective only subsides from time to time giving a false sense of security.
We cannot oppose that ideology by helping its objectives.

.

I agree with this rejection of "land for peace".
The azer turc claims what does not belong to them. It does not matter that the fraudulent world recognizes the azer turc as ligitimet. The powers that be will placate the turc for their own fraudulent desires.
It's time to reject their false, self serving agenda.
We cannot have peace with the turc by supporting their fraudulent claims.
Only by the assurance that they will lose more land can they be stopped.
Nothing less will do.

[Hakob]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Lori
I am not gonna argue with you point by point and what I said should be taken as a whole.
But when you say "expansionist liberalism is an archaic concept and it does not fit into modern states apparatus, you do not make sence for Artsakh situation.
Who says we are acting with expansionist liberalism? The issue here is the security concerns of a population and the necessary boundaries for survival based on the national philosophy and conduct of neighboring state.
This is perfectly in par of what international community has accepted for Israel. This is what we have to stick to the world opinion. As a whole, Armenia has to use this standard in lew of both Turkic republic's conducts. The issue here is not only Azerbaijan but also turkeys panturkist expansionism and denial or Armenian genocide. That denial constitutes a denial of a victim nations future security.
And who says that nowadays international community has any viable security system? Where is that modern security system? Did the world powers guarantee security of Iraq, Syria, libia, Yugoslavia, cypress, Ukraine,Georgia etc?
There can never be enough guarantees from world community to hand over territories. Nowadays world is on the brink of reconfiguring many borders and nations.
We must be very carefull of what we do. Artsakh with its security zones is a cornerstone of Armenia's security structure. Bargaining away that structure is full of unforeseen consequences. As Islamic fundamentalism spreads around our country, we could fall under booths of forces that have zero regard for international security rules and be wiped out.
There will be time in very near future that the international community will sccept and support the boundaries of Artsakh for many reasons, as long as we can hang on them.
What I am saying is there are so deep changes happening now that there is no any fundamental structure or guideline that anybody can make us exchange any land for anything.
Hell, in a short time European Union and member states like Spain and United Kingdom may be split and redrawn. Turkey may be also. There are possibilities of gulf states falling into fire of sectarianism and disintegrating.
So it is up to us to dictate our security concerns.
The future is very uncertain for almost every country around us.

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

ՀԱՊԿ ՕԱՀՈւ «Կոբալտ 2016» համատեղ վարժանքները

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Ceding some parts of the buffer zone back to the Azerbaijanis, which would allow their refugees to return, would be not only the right thing to do but the smart thing to do. We should retain Karvachar and Lachin, as those are vital to Armenian national and water security along with retaining NK itself. Aghdam, Fuzili, Zangilan, etc should be given back to Azerbaijan.

Do you have any proposal for the return of the Armenian refugees or you see them as the Azeri do, sheep to the slaughter house.

These regions are nothing but desolate ruins and would become and economic burden to develop again. No one lives there as well. I know in the past 120 years, we have lost a lot - too much. Sometimes you have to compromise and Samvel is right here.

Your understanding of economics lacks .... you have managed to put all known knowledge of economics on its head.
How can development be a burden if its planned and executed properly.
That is why all underdeveloped countries seek to develop so their assets have a better return and provide better life for its citizens.

Can you name me a country that has given up land because its an economic burden to develop it.

No one lives there as well. I know in the past 120 years, we have lost a lot - too much. Sometimes you have to compromise and Samvel is right here.
Are you proposing giving away any land that nobody lives on. Is that the principle you use for giving up land.

Yes we have lost a lot in the last 120 years and more because we did not have independent country, our own government, our own army etc.
Are you proposing more of the same despite having the new reality we live in.

Solving our problems with Azerbaijan peacefully would also allow us on focusing more of our effort on regaining regions like Kars, Ardahan and Mt. Ararat.

Never heard so much nonsense in my life.
Are you proposing exchanging the liberated lands with lottery tickets for regaining Kars , Ardahan and Mt Ararat.

We should have made claims to those lands yesterday....Things like the BTC pipeline would become a non-issue.

You are contradicting yourself.
According to you logic we cannot make claims for our western Armenian lands because we should have made the claim yesterday
Yet you are proposing buying lottery tickets to get back lost lands.

.

[armnuke]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Can we stay on topic?

Economy, Oligarkhs, Mafias, Taxation, Jobs, history, etc..are not part of this thread. It has become a veggie soup!