Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Haykakan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The answer seems straightforward.
Deprive them of those positions and we will have peace and quiet else ......... more of the same.

The decision is ours, loose 100 soldiers in the next 3-4 years without any change in the situation or
take advantage of a surprise attack, achieve goals with much less casualties.
Peace and quiet thrown in part of the deal.

The issue then will be listening the bullsh.it of the sultan about Armenian agression and percentage of territories lost etc.
We should be able to handle that.

.

I agree!

[armnuke]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The answer seems straightforward.
Deprive them of those positions and we will have peace and quiet else ......... more of the same.

The decision is ours, loose 100 soldiers in the next 3-4 years without any change in the situation or
take advantage of a surprise attack, achieve goals with much less casualties.
Peace and quiet thrown in part of the deal.

The issue then will be listening the bullsh.it of the sultan about Armenian agression and percentage of territories lost etc.
We should be able to handle that.

.

Any such action should be carefully planned and executed. Outcome could be 'make it or break it'

[Hakob]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

So you really think that if we attack them and take those positions they will not attack back ?
If Armenia does this it is a clear sign of war and internationally Armenia would be at fault for starting it.

There are ways and means in world politics standards in doing it and achieving desired end without world condemnation or being seen as the war starter.
Taking this positions have to follow certain diplomatic events, which our government has sadly has been lacking or unable to initiate untill now.
1) Arfter an Azeri provocation, like the one happened in December, our government should give an ultimatum of intend to initiate actions that will change situation on frontline in guaranteeing security and strengthening against azeri future provocations if Azeris will commit similar actions again.
This is basically declaring to the Azeris, Minsk group and world that next time Azeris do any diversions from this lines, we are going to take them and secure our border.
This will give us opportunity to take those positions without being called an aggressor.
This ultimatum by itself may restrain Baku.
This will signal to the world that Armenia is switching from weak protests to actively controlling its border security. That is never concidered an aggression.
The idea that this may start war is simply naive, as if Azerbaijan wants to go to war, it will do so regardless and the reasons for obstaining now are totally diffrent.
Contrary to this, the weakness of Armenia's diplomacy and short sighted indecisive behavior only embolden Azeris in doing more diversions to n Tavush.
We have to stop relying on weak protests and so called "disciplining countermeasures" following every azery incursion. Those never deter azery incursions and have lost all the credibility in Armenia or abroad as well.
Actually continuing with current policies only strengthens world opinion that Armenia cannot change any situation on border with Azerbaijan. The initiative is securely in Baku's hands.
This is as damaging as lives lost.
If Serj Sargsian does not get rid of Nalbandian and reform our diplomatic core soon, we will pay even with more young lives on front.

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Armenia made small arms

[Vahram90]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

There are ways and means in world politics standards in doing it and achieving desired end without world condemnation or being seen as the war starter.
Taking this positions have to follow certain diplomatic events, which our government has sadly has been lacking or unable to initiate untill now.
1) Arfter an Azeri provocation, like the one happened in December, our government should give an ultimatum of intend to initiate actions that will change situation on frontline in guaranteeing security and strengthening against azeri future provocations if Azeris will commit similar actions again.
This is basically declaring to the Azeris, Minsk group and world that next time Azeris do any diversions from this lines, we are going to take them and secure our border.
This will give us opportunity to take those positions without being called an aggressor.
This ultimatum by itself may restrain Baku.
This will signal to the world that Armenia is switching from weak protests to actively controlling its border security. That is never concidered an aggression.
The idea that this may start war is simply naive, as if Azerbaijan wants to go to war, it will do so regardless and the reasons for obstaining now are totally diffrent.
Contrary to this, the weakness of Armenia's diplomacy and short sighted indecisive behavior only embolden Azeris in doing more diversions to n Tavush.
We have to stop relying on weak protests and so called "disciplining countermeasures" following every azery incursion. Those never deter azery incursions and have lost all the credibility in Armenia or abroad as well.
Actually continuing with current policies only strengthens world opinion that Armenia cannot change any situation on border with Azerbaijan. The initiative is securely in Baku's hands.
This is as damaging as lives lost.
If Serj Sargsian does not get rid of Nalbandian and reform our diplomatic core soon, we will pay even with more young lives on front.

You overestimate the capabilities of Armenia. You are mentioning plans which can only be executed by a really independant state with a normal economy and diplomacy and especially with a legitim government. Our government knows very well what it should do but they can't. If you start military actions you have to be prepared for a military answer of the enemy. Armenia is not prepared for a war with two frontlines or even with one frontline. We can only try to hold our lines if the enemy attacks. The second problem is that the russians have to agree in all our actions (if they are active steps). Because starting anything without their consent means that you are either backed by others or you do it by yourself but then you will be isolated. Russia doesn't want to annoy azerbaijan. They need them. We have to live with this situation as long as the current government stays in power. We are completely dependant on Russia without having Russia's favour. It is the result of 20 years of massive corruption, oligarchy and immigration. No normal state would tolerate permanent attacks of a neighbouring country on his soldiers and civilians.
Regarding international law let me say some words as I am studying this: Armenia has not even to give an ultimatum or to wait for another attack. If you are permanently attacked even through mini-attacks it is enough for application of Article 51 of the UN-Charta. So you can do whatever necessary and allowed by humanitarian law to assure that the attacks stop. The best example is the conflict between Israel and Gaza. Hamas is sending some rockets every week on israeli territory without causing great damage. But these actions allow Israel to answer with massive air raids against every military target in Gaza (there are only limits by humanitarian law).
The problem is only that nobody cares about these things. If anybody wants to present you as aggressor they can do it very easily. Look how western media is crying about the "atrocities" of Assad's troops in Syria and about Russia's involvement although they are mostly in accordance with international law.

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

You overestimate the capabilities of Armenia. .

Maybe we should then be honest with ourselves and with these young boys who are sent to their deaths on the tavush border. Something along, "the government sends you here to be sitting-ducks. we can't do much about it. The enemy will try, until someday they will succeed in kidnapping one of you. your sacrifice is appreciated."

[Hakob]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

You overestimate the capabilities of Armenia. You are mentioning plans which can only be executed by a really independant state with a normal economy and diplomacy and especially with a legitim government. Our government knows very well what it should do but they can't. If you start military actions you have to be prepared for a military answer of the enemy. Armenia is not prepared for a war with two frontlines or even with one frontline. We can only try to hold our lines if the enemy attacks. The second problem is that the russians have to agree in all our actions (if they are active steps). Because starting anything without their consent means that you are either backed by others or you do it by yourself but then you will be isolated. Russia doesn't want to annoy azerbaijan. They need them. We have to live with this situation as long as the current government stays in power. We are completely dependant on Russia without having Russia's favour. It is the result of 20 years of massive corruption, oligarchy and immigration. No normal state would tolerate permanent attacks of a neighbouring country on his soldiers and civilians.
Regarding international law let me say some words as I am studying this: Armenia has not even to give an ultimatum or to wait for another attack. If you are permanently attacked even through mini-attacks it is enough for application of Article 51 of the UN-Charta. So you can do whatever necessary and allowed by humanitarian law to assure that the attacks stop. The best example is the conflict between Israel and Gaza. Hamas is sending some rockets every week on israeli territory without causing great damage. But these actions allow Israel to answer with massive air raids against every military target in Gaza (there are only limits by humanitarian law).
The problem is only that nobody cares about these things. If anybody wants to present you as aggressor they can do it very easily. Look how western media is crying about the "atrocities" of Assad's troops in Syria and about Russia's involvement although they are mostly in accordance with international law.

You are actually proving a reason of why Sasna Tsrer revolt happened.
Problem is, population will not endure this situation for long. Soon other revolts will happen(more massively and brutally).
While Moscow and Serj try to buy time by apparent "reforms", they soon will find out that time is very limited.
Situation will bite like a double edged sword. If adequate security measures are not taken by us, this will lead to ever bolder, costlier incursions by Azeris, which in turn will lead to wide scale war by them.
If the reforms will not succeed as expected ( we should be assured they won't, how can a rat become a pigeon?), this will lead to rebellion and collapse.
My main point is, the notion that current situation on border and in country as a whole is sustainable for long time may be a very unrealistic assumption.
As far as winning a war or not is not deterrent for both Armenia or Azerbaijan. The real reasons are loosing power for Serjik and Aliev.

[armnuke]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

You are actually proving a reason of why Sasna Tsrer revolt happened.
Problem is, population will not endure this situation for long. Soon other revolts will happen(more massively and brutally).
While Moscow and Serj try to buy time by apparent "reforms", they soon will find out that time is very limited.
Situation will bite like a double edged sword. If adequate security measures are not taken by us, this will lead to ever bolder, costlier incursions by Azeris, which in turn will lead to wide scale war by them.
If the reforms will not succeed as expected ( we should be assured they won't, how can a rat become a pigeon?), this will lead to rebellion and collapse.
My main point is, the notion that current situation on border and in country as a whole is sustainable for long time may be a very unrealistic assumption.
As far as winning a war or not is not deterrent for both Armenia or Azerbaijan. The real reasons are loosing power for Serjik and Aliev.

You keep talking about Sasna Tsrer.
Can you explain how can they build a country with institutions and they took over a police station.
My friend, that's like going back to a jungle state. That's not how countries are built..by glorifying armed attacks on a police station.
Armenians are not emotionally intelligent people, they love adrenaline.
But please think calmly, away from blind nationalism. Can such people build a modern, advanced country?
How can you assure that if similar people took over, they won't take over anything they don't like in a similar fashion?
Have these people been to universities? How many languages do they speak?
Do they understand about economics? GDP? growth?
We are stuck in the past and governed by our emotions, that's our biggest problem.
P.s. please don't reply by writing about how corrupt or whatever the current and past gov'ts were/are. I know all that already.

[haydavid]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Maybe we should then be honest with ourselves and with these young boys who are sent to their deaths on the tavush border. Something along, "the government sends you here to be sitting-ducks. we can't do much about it. The enemy will try, until someday they will succeed in kidnapping one of you. your sacrifice is appreciated."

Whats your solution ? Imagine your dream scenario happens and a new war starts. Do you really think that we can beat them so hard that they give up their hope of Karabakh? Azeris are brainwashed to death now and will never accept defeat. Any border we will have will be dangerous. Even if we win a new war in 5-10-15 years their military will be built again and they will try again. We can not , with only 3m people, have such advantage over them that they won't dare to attack us.

You are actually proving a reason of why Sasna Tsrer revolt happened.
...

Sasna Tsrer didn't happen because we did not go to war. It didn't also happen just because we lost 800hectares. It was the result of way more factors than that. Sasna Tsrer mainly happened so a change in the politics of Armenia could happen and because they tought Serj was going to GIVE Karabakh to the Azeris. The general population of Armenia ( not the diaspora) doesn't want war but are ready to defend their homes.

[Vahram90]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Maybe we should then be honest with ourselves and with these young boys who are sent to their deaths on the tavush border. Something along, "the government sends you here to be sitting-ducks. we can't do much about it. The enemy will try, until someday they will succeed in kidnapping one of you. your sacrifice is appreciated."

That's exactly what our government is doing for years. We are too weak to answer in an adequate way. So we try to keep the balance by shooting three times more azeris. That is not a normal situation and if we are honest it's very unfair towards these guys. Because nobody says what is the end of the story, what is our goal? Holding the line? Can we continue for 50 years in this way? If you look at our economy and demography the answer becomes clear. On the other hand that's exactly what our people wanted back in 1998 without realizing all consequences. Holding the status quo was the devise and everybody agreed. Some people said the status quo makes look us bigger on the map but not in reality but nobody wanted to listen.