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Shells from Russia on the Donbass will be achieved through Baku
Should I supply rocket ammunition to Azerbaijan if they can be in Ukraine?
On July 10, Azerbaijan received a new large batch of arms and ammunition from Russia in accordance with the intergovernmental agreement and within the framework of military-technical cooperation between our countries.According to the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense, shells, missiles and other military equipment delivered to the Baku port in large quantities are intended for accurate and extensive destruction of military equipment, engineering structures, manpower and other objects of the enemy by appropriate rocket and artillery systems.
The military department did not specify which missiles and ammunition this time is talking about. But in the widespread photos and video, shells are visible to the heavy flame-throwing system TOS-1A "Solntsepek". A number of media outlets also reported that profits and ammunition for rocket launcher systems (MLRS) have arrived at the port.
Reports of shells for MLRS are of particular interest. Not only such Turkish systems are in service with the army of Azerbaijan, but also numerous Soviet MLRS Grad, Hurricane (12 units purchased from Ukraine), Smerch (18 units purchased from Russia under a contract from 2013, 12 from Ukraine).
According to a number of experts, if in 1993-2008 Azerbaijan purchased weapons from Ukraine, now Ukraine, concerned with the long-standing fierce resistance of the Donbass, counts on some response from Azerbaijan. Hence - last year's July statement of Peter Poroshenko that Ukraine does not recognize Nagorno-Karabakh and welcomes the similar position of Azerbaijan in the Crimea. "Military-technical cooperation has always been one of the main components of our cooperation. Today we are already turning to Azerbaijan for assistance in the supply of certain types of weapons and ammunition, " Ukraine's ambassador to Azerbaijan Alexander Mishchenko said in February 2017.
The only problem is that Baku has little to offer Kiev from military equipment, since it itself carries out large-scale purchases. Moreover, not only in Russia, but also in Pakistan and Israel.However, some Ukrainian experts say that Azerbaijan can very well help Ukraine with ammunition, the stock of which is exhausted at the local stores.
And it is known that after the collapse of the USSR, Ukraine never charged for any MLRS.Although such weapons were used most actively by the Ukrainian army in the civil war in the Donbass. Naturally, the corresponding arsenals of Kiev are dangerously emptied.
Worst of all there is the "Tornado". For this weapon, in Ukraine, by definition, there could not be a large amount of ammunition, since the system began to enter service shortly before the collapse of the Soviet Union.
"During the last few years, the military reserves that were inherited from the Soviet army were used. But these reserves are not limitless, a significant part of them were thoughtlessly recycled or sold at a time when no one thought they would have to fight, "said Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksandr Turchynov .
According to the estimates of Ukrainian military expert Diana Mikhailova , as of the beginning of 2014, there were 70-72 thousand pieces of 220-mm rockets for the Hurricanes, 900-930 thousand units of 122 mm ammunition for Grads. However, in 2014-2015, Ukrainian "Grads" and "Hurricanes" were hit hard on the NDP and LC, so military analysts had already dubbed the conflict in the Donbass "a MLRS war."
In addition, a huge amount of ammunition was destroyed as a result of an explosion in the joint stockpiles of rocket and artillery weapons of Sector A of the Armed Forces in Ukraine's Svatovo-controlled part of the Lugansk region. At the same time, the division of the 220-mm MLRS "Uragan" from the 27th Sumy reactive artillery brigade was completely destroyed. Also, according to open data, at the same time, more than a thousand shells for the "Hurricane" and a few were lost for the "Smerch" MLRS. In March 2017, ammunition storage depots, located near the city of Balakleya, Kharkiv region, took off.
According to Ukrainian military expert Oleg Zhdanov , after fires in the ammunition warehouses, Turchinov urged Ukrainian producers to take part in the creation of a Ukrainian base for the production of a wide range of ammunition due to the deficit the country is experiencing. And further Zhdanov asserts: "The partner countries came to their aid. And among them, perhaps, is Azerbaijan. "
In April 2017, the information on the purchase of a foreign machine-tool fleet appeared on the web, which is capable of producing structural elements for the 300-mm shells of the Smerch MLRS. This information puts an end to Turchinov's statement that the mass production of Ukrainian rockets for MLRS has been established as far back as 2016. Thus, Ukraine, noted bloggers and the media, can replenish the shortage of ammunition only by buying them abroad.
Can Azerbaijan supply ammunition for the MLRS to Ukraine - both new ones purchased from Russia and old ones? Note that in social networks bloggers categorically answer "yes." And they cite as an example the recent history of alleged supplies of weapons by airplanes of one of the air companies and the Air Force of Azerbaijan to the militants of the "Islamic State" *.
Recall that in early July, a number of media referring to the Bulgarian source spread information that the Azerbaijani airline Silk Way and military transport aircraft allegedly "under the guise of diplomatic flights deliver by air from the countries of Eastern Europe" dozens of tons of weapons, including for radical Islamists. The news was picked up in social networks and the Armenian media with a message that Russia needs to be more cautious in approaching military-technical cooperation with Azerbaijan, because it seems like "re-export and arms smuggling has become a profitable business."
In the history of the delivery of goods to Syria from Eastern Europe, the aircraft of Azerbaijan may indeed have been used. But this state provided its services as a carrier, not an arms supplier. As for the transfer of former Russian shells for the MLRS to Ukraine, it can not be ruled out, believes Alexander Khramchikhin , deputy director of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis .
- Russia is unlikely to be happy if she finds out about it. But if Moscow agreed to sell ammunition to Azerbaijan, it's too late to complain. Moreover, after the sale, this is Azerbaijani ammunition. And, in principle, Baku does with them everything that it wants.
It is clear that there is an end-user certificate. But, as world experience shows, it is difficult to track the re-export of even heavy military equipment. And ammunition - and even more so.For example, it is not noticed that Ukraine would receive equipment from Eastern Europe, but ammunition therefrom, most likely, are delivered quite actively.
However, I hardly imagine that Azerbaijan is engaged in charity and supplies Ukraine with shells at reduced prices. Moreover, he himself needs them for military operations in Karabakh.If he resells Russian shells, then only with an extra charge. And where did Ukraine get the money?
"There is hardly any scheme for delivering MLRS shells from Azerbaijan to Ukraine," said Andrey Frolov, editor-in-chief of the magazine Export of Arms, a researcher at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies . "Deliveries of ammunition are difficult to track, but if the LNR and DNR militias open the serial number of the missile, Baku will have problems." And it is unlikely that they will donate military-technical cooperation with Moscow for the sale of small quantities of ammunition to Ukraine.
Another point is money. Under such a scheme, the Azerbaijanis must first pay Rosoboronexport, and then resell the shells to the Ukrainians. Which will receive them, it turns out, at a double price.
It is better to go around the world, pick up written-off missiles or buy them legally and at low prices in Asia (where also use 122 mm and 300 mm shells). I will remind you that when the Ukrainians sold the "Smerch" system to Azerbaijan, the cost of one projectile with a cluster head for Baku was 20 thousand dollars. A total of about 300 shells were sold.
In general, there is nothing to replenish Ukraine's warehouses - on the market there is not much ammunition for the systems that are in service with the Armed Forces. And from the countries of the former Warsaw Pact a large quantity of ammunition in its time was brought to Ukraine. Just as Ukraine sold to Azerbaijan a system of MLRS and ammunition with it.
Given the fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh, which periodically turns into a hot stage, it is not very clear why Baku should sell deficit ammunition. Actually, that's why the APU, in addition to the mortars for shelling, most often uses the MLRS Grad. For these systems, they have the most ammunition. The only question is, in what condition are those missiles, most of which were produced in the USSR.
* The "Islamic State" was recognized by the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation on December 29, 2014 as a terrorist organization, its activities on the territory of Russia are banned.
https://svpressa.ru/war21/article/176749/
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Azerbaijani Army soldier Nahid Zahid Soltanov, was shot dead by a sniper during his military service. The incident took place on July 14 in Zangishali village of the Agdam region. Elchin Soltanov, the soldier's brother, has confirmed to Meydan TV.
The Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense has made no announcements as usual.
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We sould do everything we can to show our support for Crimea and Donbass freedom fighters. The faster Ukraine disintegrates the less friends Azeris have. Also, Belarus is a pile of douchebags too.Originally posted by Sukhoi22 View PostComment
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We should stay out of it, man. Encouraging Russian imperialism will eventually come back to bite Armenia in the ass when the Russians come to recolonize us. They're already laying the framework.Originally posted by arakeretzig View Post
All this is a better reason to build a local military industry and to invest heavily in MLRS and EW.
Russia will bite HARD. They already bite Armenia with every weapons purchase to Azerbaijan and every arm twist on our economy.
Putin is playing hard ball and he will bring everyone on the brink of hunger and poverty as long as he gets his way. You want to stay as far away as possible from him without actually giving the image of it. Best ways armenia can do that is:1. Invest in renewable energy and shut down metsamor 2. Develop a local ammunition / weapons industry. 3. Keep playing all the CSTO EEU games and be its biggest fan.
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Armenian Army
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Shutting down Metsamor is going to be hard until the effectiveness of clean energy will be done, we have great potential for clean energy in our geographical location, but this quote is probably the best strategy for Armenia right now.Originally posted by HyeSocialist View PostComment
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