Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

One of the few times that I totally agree with Armenian.

....If Baku wants to get adventurous. If Baku tried to upset the prevailing status-quo in the region by resorting to military means. If Baku (and Tbilisi) continues being troublesome in the region - why not allow the establishment of common borders between Armenia and Russia?.....

Arevordi
April, 2011

http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/...-in-south.html

I say why wait for Baku to make a move....Armenia can force Russia into accepting a pre-empt and establishment of common border.

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Therefore, if hostilities resume. If Baku is foolish enough to disregard its northern and southern neighbors' wishes by striking at Artsakh with full force, with the moral initiative and Moscow and Tehran on its side, I personally believe Yerevan should take the opportunity to strike deep into Azerbaijan's north western territory and by doing so finally establish a land connection with the Russian Federation.
http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/...-in-south.html

I've thought of the same too but just one gambit that I'm not sure about that might be a big risk: what will Georgia's reaction to this be vis-a-vis Armenia?

Taking into account the worst-case scenario... unless we create an odd enclave of Azeri territory near the border with Georgia and just march directly to the Russian border, in order for Armenia to have a border with Russia we are going to be depriving Georgia of a border with Azerbaijan. If this happens, Georgia could openly back Azerbaijan in the war. Granted Georgia has no strength either politically or militarily, we are extremely dependent on our border with it and they could just decide to shut it. Not only that but our Internet and oil and gas go through it too. Sure perhaps Moscow could help us in the long run but the Armenia-Georgia border is much more developed and what not so it could be a huge hit for us during the war and in the years that follow it. Lots of co-Azeri-Turkish-Georgian assets go through that border too. We would need the 100% backing of Moscow for this to escape some of the possible consequences. Not only that but we might need Moscow to "intervene" militarily too against the Georgians. Maybe they can finally finish them off )

[KarotheGreat]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I've thought of the same too but just one gambit that I'm not sure about that might be a big risk: what will Georgia's reaction to this be vis-a-vis Armenia?

Taking into account the worst-case scenario... unless we create an odd enclave of Azeri territory near the border with Georgia and just march directly to the Russian border, in order for Armenia to have a border with Russia we are going to be depriving Georgia of a border with Azerbaijan. If this happens, Georgia could openly back Azerbaijan in the war. Granted Georgia has no strength either politically or militarily, we are extremely dependent on our border with it and they could just decide to shut it. Not only that but our Internet and oil and gas go through it too. Sure perhaps Moscow could help us in the long run but the Armenia-Georgia border is much more developed and what not so it could be a huge hit for us during the war and in the years that follow it. Lots of co-Azeri-Turkish-Georgian assets go through that border too. We would need the 100% backing of Moscow for this to escape some of the possible consequences. Not only that but we might need Moscow to "intervene" militarily too against the Georgians. Maybe they can finally finish them off )

That's one of the reasons why the next war will not be a war between countries but something bigger and also the reason why no one wants the war to start everybody sees the big picture and what they can lose.

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

2a36 Giatsint-B:

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

2a36 Giatsint-B:

[edojan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I've thought of the same too but just one gambit that I'm not sure about that might be a big risk: what will Georgia's reaction to this be vis-a-vis Armenia?

Taking into account the worst-case scenario... unless we create an odd enclave of Azeri territory near the border with Georgia and just march directly to the Russian border, in order for Armenia to have a border with Russia we are going to be depriving Georgia of a border with Azerbaijan. If this happens, Georgia could openly back Azerbaijan in the war. Granted Georgia has no strength either politically or militarily, we are extremely dependent on our border with it and they could just decide to shut it. Not only that but our Internet and oil and gas go through it too. Sure perhaps Moscow could help us in the long run but the Armenia-Georgia border is much more developed and what not so it could be a huge hit for us during the war and in the years that follow it. Lots of co-Azeri-Turkish-Georgian assets go through that border too. We would need the 100% backing of Moscow for this to escape some of the possible consequences. Not only that but we might need Moscow to "intervene" militarily too against the Georgians. Maybe they can finally finish them off )

during republics first independence we were fighting on 4 fronts georgia, azerbeijan, turkey and iran. I think this time around fighting on 2 fronts ... Azeri and Georgia wont be an issue. Its just having political backbone in Armenia and ability to come to agreement with Russia on this. Having capacity to manufacture munitions like artillery shells, grad rockets, Armor, UAV's will be a necessity to win in timely fashion with minimal losses.

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

It would be to the advantage to Russia if Armenia cut off the Georgian/Azeri border and removed the Georgian problem for them…..and Georgians wont do sh1t, they will change their tune and support us at the end, with mama bear breathing down their neck. They are already negotiating with Russians through Armenia.

The one problem is that, can Armenia maintain security of those new borders without too much Russian support after a bloody war that Armenia must win.

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

It would be to the advantage to Russia if Armenia cut off the Georgian/Azeri border and removed the Georgian problem for them…..and Georgians wont do sh1t, they will change their tune and support us at the end, with mama bear breathing down their neck. They are already negotiating with Russians through Armenia.

The one problem is that, can Armenia maintain security of those new borders without too much Russian support after a bloody war that Armenia must win.

This is a fantasy plan. Armenia doesn't have the resources for this. Even with Russian support, this could end very badly.

[KarotheGreat]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

This is a fantasy plan. Armenia doesn't have the resources for this. Even with Russian support, this could end very badly.

How do you know what resources Armenia has? What are your magical sources?

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

How do you know what resources Armenia has? What are your magical sources?

I know enough to make a logical conclusion Armenia doesn't have a budget to invade a country, and feed its own people at the same time, with this blockade.
To mention a few things:-
You'd need to be atleast 10 times larger in numbers to invade the azeris. We don't have that much trained soldiers.
We need factories that are able to feed the frontlines with supply/equipment for years.
Even if Armenia magically succeeds in doing this, what do you think its neighbors are going to do?
There's alot of factors here that make this plan borderline insane. No need to list them all, i'm sure you can figure them out by yourself.