Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Mos]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Yeah, I'm pretty sceptical that the Muslim, Turkic Central Asian states will be helping us. Russia will be divided on what to do as Azerbaijan has a lot to offer to the Russians.

[ninetoyadome]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Armenia, the CSTO and Collective Security
May 23, 2011 - 4:24pm, by Joshua Kucera
The Bug Pit Armenia Azerbaijan CSTO Nagorno Karabakh
Would the Collective Security Treaty Organization come to Armenia's aid in the event of a war with Azerbaijan over Nagorno Karabakh? It's a question that has been the matter of speculation for some time. And last week Armenia's defense minister said yes, the CSTO would support Armenia. Via AFP:

“Given Armenia’s membership in the CSTO, we can count on an appropriate response and the support of our allies in the organization, who have specific responsibilities to each other and the ability to react adequately to potential aggression,” Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian told a security conference in Yerevan.

Of course, what "an appropriate response" entails could be very much up to interpretation. And much depends on whether the war would involve only Karabakh -- which is de jure part of Azerbaijan -- or Armenia. If the former, the CSTO would be less likely to get involved, since it wouldn't involve an attack on a member nation. In a piece called "Kazakhstan dashes Armenia's collective security hopes," News.az quotes a couple of Kazakh security experts saying making that point:

“If a military conflict began in Nagorno-Karabakh, this would not be an attack by Azerbaijan on Armenia”, [Murat] Laumulin [senior fellow at the Kazakh president's Strategic Research Institute] said. "This issue is Azerbaijan’s internal affair, because Nagorno-Karabakh is a part of Azerbaijan’s administrative territory....”

The director for analysis and consulting at Kazakhstan’s Institute of Political Solutions, Rustam Burnashev, shares Laumulin's view.

He said that the Nagorno Karabakh conflict was an internal Azerbaijani affair: “What's most important is how much Armenia itself would raise this issue and how much Azerbaijan would bring it before the international community."

"The interpretation of the Karabakh conflict by Azerbaijan and Armenia does not envisage a direct clash between them," Burnashev said.

But both of those comments imply that an attack on Armenia could trigger the collective security obligation of the CSTO, which would still be a substantial advantage for Armenia should war over Karabakh break out. It would mean that Armenia could attack targets in Azerbaijan proper (like oil facilities in Baku, for example) without escalating the conflict, while Azerbaijan couldn't do the same (i.e. attack Armenia) without getting the CSTO involved.

Then again, if a war started, legal questions might be thrown out the window and CSTO member states -- particularly Russia -- would make political/strategic decisions about whether or how much to get involved. And then, frankly, it's much harder to imagine Moscow calculating in favor of intervening on behalf of Armenia against Azerbaijan. But let's hope it doesn't come to that.

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/63541

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Zinuzh HD 21.05.2011

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Zinuzh HD 22 05 2011

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani soldier dies in road accident

[ 24 May 2011 12:45 ]
Baku. Hafiz Heydarov – APA. A soldier of the Azerbaijani Army ran over by car, Sumgayit city police told APA.

The road accident occurred last night in Sumgayit City near the brick factory. Gahraman Omurmali Javadov, 18 ran over by a truck driven by resident of Sumgayit Fuad Mammadov. The pedestrian died at site.

Police said Javadov was a soldier of the Azerbaijani Army serving in a military base in Goranboy region. He was on weekly leave.

apa.az

[Vardan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani soldier dies in road accident

[ 24 May 2011 12:45 ]
Baku. Hafiz Heydarov – APA. A soldier of the Azerbaijani Army ran over by car, Sumgayit city police told APA.

The road accident occurred last night in Sumgayit City near the brick factory. Gahraman Omurmali Javadov, 18 ran over by a truck driven by resident of Sumgayit Fuad Mammadov. The pedestrian died at site.

Police said Javadov was a soldier of the Azerbaijani Army serving in a military base in Goranboy region. He was on weekly leave.
apa.az

You've been faster than me.

59 deads.

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Armenian Air Defence:

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Armenian Air Defence:

I think these tubes could do with a lick of paint !!


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[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Admits? This implies we were trying to hide something. We clearly mentioned before that we'd take punitive actions.
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Armenia Admits ‘Retaliatory’ Actions On Karabakh Frontline


Nagorno-Karabakh -- An Armenian soldier on a frontline position east of Karabakh, 14May2010.
24.05.2011
Tigran Avetisian

The most recent casualties suffered by the Azerbaijani army around Nagorno-Karabakh are the result of “retaliatory” actions taken by Armenian troops, Armenia’s Defense Ministry said on Tuesday.

“That happened as a result of the Armenian side’s actions aimed at punishing and liquidating Azerbaijani snipers,” the ministry spokesman, Davit Karapetian, said, referring to the deaths of two Azerbaijani soldiers reported over the weekend.

“In recent days, the Azerbaijani side has stepped up military actions along the line of contact,” Karapetian told RFE/RL’s Armenian service. “As a result of that, hundreds of sporadic and sniper gunshots have been fired at the Armenian side. The Armenian side has silenced those firing positions with retaliatory actions.”

The two Azerbaijani soldiers were reportedly shot dead at different sections of the Armenian-Azerbaijani “line of contact” east of Karabakh, in what the Azerbaijani military called a ceasefire violation by the Armenians.

The incidents occurred less than a month after three Karabakh Armenian soldiers and a civilian man were killed by sniper fire from Azerbaijani army positions. Military officials in Yerevan and Stepanakert accused Baku of deliberately heightening tensions along the heavily fortified frontline. Azerbaijani officials dismissed the accusations.

Armenian Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian last week effectively confirmed reports that Karabakh Armenian army units have been instructed to give a “tough riposte” to the enemy.

“Those [Azerbaijani] actions are answered with a use of disproportionate force. That means they are punished with much bigger casualties,” Ohanian told journalists. He claimed that the Azerbaijani military is underreporting its losses.

“Responsibility for the Azerbaijani losses fully falls upon the Azerbaijani side,” said Karapetian.

The deadly skirmishes continue despite international efforts to bolster the shaky ceasefire regime in the Karabakh conflict zone which has been in effect since 1994. The United States and the European Union seem increasingly worried that the sniper warfare could degenerate into anther all-out war for the Armenian-controlled territory.

The foreign ministers of EU member states discussed the Karabakh dispute at a regular meeting in Brussels on Monday. “We are very worried about the fatal incidents last week and in Nagorno-Karabakh over the weekend,” the EU’s foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, said after the meeting.

http://www.azatutyun.am/content/article/24194937.html

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I appreciate this tough line. Everyone should know that each time the Azeris do something stupid, they're going to get slammed.