Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Armanen]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

If the Azeris attack Armenia directly, they will are bound by CTSO treaty to help Armenia.

I don't think the azeri's will be that stupid. They will attack Artsakh which is not recognized as part of Armenia, therefore the bilaterial and csto treaty for mutual defense wouldn't come into force. And if Armenia went to the aid of Artsakh, which it would, then Armenia would not be acting defensivly "technically" speaking. Thus I do not put much faith into Russia directly helping Armenia.

[RSNATION]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I don't think the azeri's will be that stupid. They will attack Artsakh which is not recognized as part of Armenia, therefore the bilaterial and csto treaty for mutual defense wouldn't come into force. And if Armenia went to the aid of Artsakh, which it would, then Armenia would not be acting defensivly "technically" speaking. Thus I do not put much faith into Russia directly helping Armenia.

I agree. What the Azeris might did try to do during the first war was to open a second front in north-eastern Armenia near Ijevan and Noyemberian. If they did this again, there is no certainty how Russia would react. While Russia wants to bring Azerbaijan closer, they do not necessarily want to conflict to be resolved; it is their trump card in the region.

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

NKR in Focus: Ossetia conflict continues reflected attention on Karabakh


After South Ossetia-related passions calmed attention switched to the Republic of Nagorno Karabakh- the only “smoldering” conflict in the Caucasus.

Tensions between Russia and the West have almost nullified the possibility of further cooperation within the framework of the OSCE Minsk group, where Russia and the USA are co-chairmen on the Karabakh settlement.

It’s not accidental that on September 12 the American co-chairman of the Minsk group Mathew Bryza visited Stepanakert alone, without his Russian and French colleagues. He is leading a separate American policy.

At the same time, as Russian Kommersant newspaper reports, the Russian president offered to arrange a meeting for the heads of Armenia and Azerbaijan, but as mediated by Russian President Medvedyev, rather than under the aegis of the OSCE Minsk group.

The European Union isn’t falling behind either. Goran Lennmarker, Special Rapporteur of OSCE Parliamentary Assembly on Nagorno Karabakh thinks that “the Karabakh conflict is the only obstacle on the way of cooperation between the countries of South Caucasus [Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan], and it is important to make efforts for its settlement.”

Meanwhile, Pierre Morel has been appointed the second EU Special Rapporteur on South Caucasus. European analysts say “Pierre Morel’s appointment might allow Peter Semneby (the first co-chairman of EU) to better concentrate on the frozen conflict of Nagorno Karabakh.”

Now, too, the game has a new player – Turkey – which throughout the 20 years ever since the Karabakh conflict started in 1988, has constantly been trying to get into the format of a mediator, but to no avail. After the South Ossetian events Turkey came up with an initiative to create a Platform of Security and Stability in the Caucasus and now declares that it wants to become a mediator in the Karabakh conflict settlement.

Together with Baku, Ankara stated that the format of the Minsk group has exhausted itself and offered to arrange a tri-lateral meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey. Armenia has accepted the offer. Two round-table discussions on the “Situation in the South Caucasus, NKR’s Perspectives on International Recognition” were held at the National Assembly of Nagorno Karabakh.

Answering the question about Turkey’s initiative to perform as a mediator in the process of peace settlement of the Karabakh conflict, NKR Foreign Minister George Petrosyan stated that “in a way it [the initiative] contradicts the co-chairmanship of the OSCE Minsk group on the Karabakh conflict settlement.”

At the same time the Minister emphasized that Turkey’s initiative in creating a platform of security and stability does not envisage participation of the European Union, the USA and other interested parties. “However, in the current situation, how can full security be possibly guaranteed in the region without the participation of those states with a serious interest in the region?” said Petrosyan.

What solution to the Karabakh conflict do the mediators suggest and what is the divergence of interests of the main world players? Judging from what analysts suppose, the parties have come to share an opinion that the Karabakh conflict can be settled now by recognizing NKR within the limits of the Autonomous Region of Nagorno Karabakh (Azerbaijan’s former enclave) and by returning the lands around former ARNK currently controlled by the Karabakh forces. However, as security experts say, Karabakh is of strategic interest only if it preserves its current borders: the former ARNK, even if a corridor with Armenia is provided, cannot serve the strategic interests of the Armenian nation and cannot become a transit point for communications. Global communication projects, offered to be implemented in Karabakh, will have to pass through the liberated lands, and not through the former ARNK.

Turkish Presidents Abdullah Gul’s statement after his return to Ankara [after visiting Yerevan] that RA President Serzh Sargsyan “promised to return the occupied lands” proves the possibility of such settlement. Armenia has not disclaimed that statement. Gul said that the issues between Turkey and Armenia, Azerbaijan and Armenia are not only bilateral, but also territorial ones: “The situation in the region has changed considerably, peace in the Caucasus, settlement of conflicts between states will lead not only to political but also economic stability.”

It may seem that’s what Mathew Bryza proposed to NKR President Bako Sahakyan.

“Yes, the principle of territorial integrity really exists. But if a deal is made between the conflicting parties, everybody has to accept it, as well as include other principles of the international law and diplomacy,” said Bryza, adding that such a deal is possible.

President Sahakyan pointed out that official Stepanakert is for peace settlement of the Karabakh conflict only if NKR takes a first-hand participation in the negotiation processes. “The Republic of Nagorno Karabakh will gain recognition. That’s just a matter of time. The events of the world show that that day is not far away,” he declared.

“No progress in the Karabakh conflict settlement is likely to happen until the forthcoming presidential elections in Azerbaijan are over,” stated Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan in his interview to a Turkish newspaper Radical. He also pointed out that the conflict settlement depends on the parties’ political will.

Stepanakert’s response to Mathew Bryza, Dmitri Medvedyev and other potential mediators is still a mystery. One thing is obvious: everybody will now try to establish control over the disputed territory of Nagorno Karabakh, which has ????? long borderline with Iran – a country of much more interests these days than the tiny NKR.

From http://armenianow.com/?action=viewAr...D=1202&lng=eng

[ZORAVAR]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The Following posts will be about weapons in Azerbaijan's arsenal that are potentially the most concerning. Here is the first one:

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Metallic hail: SMERCH Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS)

SMERCH system on Parade in Baku on June 2, 2008.

These are Russian (Soviet) made 300 mm rocket launchers (12 per vehicle). The Azeris bought 12 of these a few years ago from the Ukraine.

Details of the SMERCH on the manufacturer's website: http://www.splav.org/en/arms/smerch/index.asp

These are powerfull weapons that can be used in 3 different ways against us:

1. Each rocket weighs a massive 800 kg. A volley of these carry enough punch to breach our fortified defenses and allow their tanks and soldiers to pass through into our territories.

Our counter: do not concentrate defense on one line, have 3 or more defensive lines. Be prepared for the eventuality of a defense collapsing and have defense in the rear (defense in depth).

2. Destroy any concentration of our own armour that is preparing a counter-attack against the intruding Azeris.

Our counter: Avoid armour concentrations for extended periods of time. All actions should br made swiftly. Hide assets in forests and use camouflage techniques to avoid detection.

3. The 70 km range rocket (there is also a 90km version but I don't know if the Azeris have it) can be used to wipe out civilian centers. Stepanagerd would be at the mercy of these. A single rocket can bring down a 3 story building. For comparison: the Georgians were using much smaller rockets to destroy Tskinvalli.

Our counter: Evacuate civilians out of major towns and villages as early as possible.

The best counter: destroy the SMERCHs early in the conflict. We can use our Mi-24 helicopter gunships, our Su-25 "Shturmovik" strike aircraft or our own equivalent to the SMERCH: we posess a handfull of Chinese made WM-80 273mm mulltiple rocket launchers (8 rockets per vehicle). These are not as good or powerfull as the Russian made SMERCH, but at least they match the later's range and can be used for counter-battery fire.

A couple of our Mi-24 gunships during training


A trio of our Su-25 close support aircraft during a military parade


Our "made in China" WM-80 rocket launchers in Yerevan

[Anoush]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Thanks Zoravar for the informative info. So the 9K58 SMERCHES what you were talking about the other day. Yeah they look enormous and powerful; but hey you already came with a solution to fight these elephants back.

Btw; how many of those Chinese WM-80 rocket launchers do we own as of todate? Do we have at least 7 or 8 of them?

[crusader1492]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

ONE NEEDS BRAINS TO HOLD VICTORY IN WAR

Lilit Poghosyan

Hayots Ashkhar Daily
18 Sep 2008
Armenia

Physical strength and the quantity of arms do not matter

"Tigran Mets" hall of "Armenia-Marriott" hotel was unusually crowded
yesterday. A number of representatives of the native political elite
and intelligentsia - pro-government and pro-opposition figures,
political scientists, diplomats, representatives of culture and
science and veterans of war had come here to mark the presentation
of the book entitled "Victories - the Way They Were: Call Sign". The
book is dedicated to Samvel Babayan, one of the heroes who helped
shape the victory in the war of Artsakh.

At the end of the presentation, SAMVEL BABAYAN answered to the
questions of the journalists.

"Azerbaijan continues to multiply its military expenses and is
assiduously arming itself. Do you think the Armenian side will
be able to resist the Azerbaijani aggression in case there is a
confrontation? "

"It is clearly stated in the book that in 1992 Azerbaijan had more arms
and ammunition than it has now. Its ammunition reserves were envisaged
for the period of 6 months, according to the standards of the Soviet
Union. All that was used against us, but nothing came out of it. Hence,
the outcome of the war can never be determined by the quantity of
the arms. Neither can it b e determined it by physical strength.

This is what the book attempts to impart to the reader. If some
people believe that victory in war is achieved by spirit and physical
strength, the book proves the contrary. By waging a war, Azerbaijan
will commit a great blunder. Even if it turns out successful at some
stage, it doesn't matter; that won't last long.

Such was the case in 1992, and such will it be in future. Azerbaijan
should realize very well that in case of resorting to such adventurism,
it may lose very large territories."

"Is it possible for Azerbaijan to be bold enough to follow the
precedent of Georgia?"

"In my opinion, Azerbaijan should either recognize the Nagorno Karabakh
Republic or try to solve the problem through military operations;
it has no alternative. And neither do we have any. The Armenian side
should be ready for mutual concessions; of course, laying the stress
on security issues, first of all."

"Does Armenia make an equivalent response to Azerbaijan's diplomatic
initiatives? I mean, don't we suffer a defeat in the propaganda war?"

"I wouldn't like to make such characterizations. Even though Azerbaijan
is active and conducts a little bit hysteric policy, I think it is also
a matter of time. Armenia should first of all develop its economy,
improve its social conditions and establish firm grounds for its20
foreign policy, not by serving some superpower but really trying
to relieve the tension in the region, and make efforts towards the
European integration.

As to the fact that Azerbaijan makes scenes of hysteria in different
international tribunals, this is not a way for solving problems. It
did the same in the past as well. Do you remember when father Aliev
came to power, it was making hysteria again? It was acting from the
positions of a victim, announcing that the Armenians had occupied 20
percent of their territory etc. But as you see, that didn't help them
'solve' the Karabakh issue. Issues are solved through diplomatic
channels, i.e. around the table of negotiations.

If Azerbaijan again persists in using force and arms, I repeat it will
be deprived of a lot of things. So, when Azerbaijan realizes this, and
sees that it may lose its territories extending to the Caspian Sea,
it will sit around the table, without believing its supporters who
persist in their statements that everything will be all right. The
things will not be all right. In 1992, they were also sure that
everything would be 'all right', but that proved to be wrong."

"During the recent period, Mr. Aliev has been often speaking about
the possibility of settling the Karabakh conflict through diplomatic
channels, i.e. by holding peace talks. Should we consider this a
temporary retreat from the bla ckmail tactics or has Azerbaijan taken
a more realistic view of the things?"

"I believe, Azerbaijan's posture is conditioned by the current
situation in the region. Azerbaijan has not yet found the right way,
and is now trying to clarify its relations with the West and Russia. It
will try to win time waiting for a proper moment, and then it will
become active again."

[ZORAVAR]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Dance of the Scarab: TOCHKA

TOCHKA precision guided missile in Baku 26 June, 2008.

SS-21 SCARAB is the NATO codename for the Russian TOCHKA high-precision theatre missile. The Russian forces used a few of these during their operation against Georgian forces during August 2008.

Detials of the Tochka-U at the manufacturer's site: http://www.kbm.ru/en/product/ttms/tochka-u

An unknown number of those are in service in the Azeri army. I don't know how, when and from where they acquired them. But they sure do worry me.

This 2000 kg missile carries a 500 kg warhead and is very accurate. Needless to say that it can cause heavy damage. The range is 120 km putting all of Karabagh and a good part of Armenia itself whitin range of this weapon.

It can be used against high value military targets such as command centers, airports, ammunition depots etc.... as well as against civilian centers. It is basically a mini-SCUD missile, but much more accurate.

How to counter it: get it before it gets you. We can use our air assets against it (provided we know were they are).

Do we have anything similar in our army? According to some sources, we do, and we have SCUD missiles as well. But I can not confirm anything as I have never seen a photo.

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Do we have anything similar in our army? According to some sources, we do, and we have SCUD missiles as well. But I can not confirm anything as I have never seen a photo.

We do have about 8-12 SCUD missiles, 'given' to us by that drunk Boris Yeltsin and they are currently on the frontline... aimed at the BTC pipeline

[ZORAVAR]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Thanks Zoravar for the informative info. So the 9K58 SMERCHES what you were talking about the other day. Yeah they look enormous and powerful; but hey you already came with a solution to fight these elephants back.

Btw; how many of those Chinese WM-80 rocket launchers do we own as of todate? Do we have at least 7 or 8 of them?

You are welcome Anoush.

Yes, the Smerch is one of the more worrisome weapons in our enemy's inventory. There are others, and I am going to be talking about them too.

As for WM-80s we have: We received 4 of these during 1999. AFAIK we are the only army in the world who uses this system. Even the Chinese army does not have it (they opted for the A-100 system instead) and it has not been exported anywhere else!!!!!

We must have gotten the initial production batch for a bargain price (good move).

Our 273mm WM-80 during a military parade in Yerevan (2006)

[Anoush]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

You know Zoravar jan, Crusader makes a lot of sense. My grandfather was an old timer elite Tashnagtsagan and I know through ARF's battles that the enemy the (turk) usually had enormous amount of people and with it arms; but usually we won and we won heroically. Yes they were battles; and nothing like today's sophisticated and killer arms, but still; it takes strategically intelligent brains to win wars. They may have the people and the bla bla sophisticated arms; but make no mistake of it - WE HAVE THE BRAINS!!!!!!

So you see my dear compatriot Zoravar? I am unafraid now. For a little while I was; but not anymore I am not.