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Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan
This is the translation to the above letter in Russian.
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Analysis
Resorting to military Armenii18 Sun Jul 2009 09:35
Soldiers and officers of the Armed Forces of Armenia! Future recruits!
Is well known that the global economic crisis has hit hardest of all to Armenia, which would be difficult for all the other republics of the former Soviet Union to get out of it. The standard of living in Armenia will continue to fall, the economic development of your country will continue to lag behind the rest of the South Caucasus and the entire post-Soviet space. The delay would also closed the border, unresolved conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and Armenia's strong energy dependence - factors that have neskoro disappear.
Constant probability of resumption of hostilities does not add confidence to the ordinary citizen of Armenia, including the military and its armed forces, prospective recruits and reservists in stock. It is no longer a secret that, despite the fact that the victorious blitzkrieg could not be any of the parties, with some time in the economy of Azerbaijan was still more room to withstand long and arduous battle than that of the Armenian economy. That is, if in the first months of the war, Armenia and Azerbaijan are unlikely to molneonosno defeat the other side, by the protracted war economy of Azerbaijan is prepared, certainly better than that of Armenia. This is not propaganda, but the opinion of independent experts.
Azerbaijan can afford to buy any weapons for world prices (good sellers always available), while Armenia is heavily dependent on free supplies or supplies at discounted prices, which, however, can not continue indefinitely. In addition, we should not forget that for such handouts, and Armenia also pays benefits somehow their own, not necessarily live with money, which ultimately also reduces its national wealth.
In Azerbaijan there, like Armenia, big problems with human resources. The population of Azerbaijan is continuing to grow, grow, and emigration from Armenia. Geographically, the fate is also favorably located in Azerbaijan than in Armenia, and in war it is also inevitably affected.
No less important is the fact that Azerbaijan was created and is developing its own military industry, which is not, and hardly expected in the coming years in Armenia. Financial, energy, material, manpower reserves in Azerbaijan is much more than that of Armenia. In short, if a debut chess game on the battlefield of Armenia can not be exchanged, it is one heavy piece of three Azerbaijani and if the figures would be equivalent to the exchange (most likely scenario), then go to the endgame of the parties with different forces and dokanchivat shipment Azerbaijani army will be completely other rate.
To prevent such a deplorable scenario, Armenia, Azerbaijan will need to inflict a crushing blow like preventive six Arab-Israeli war of 1967. Today, however, Armenia has hardly able to do so. It is time for you all, finally, realize that in the court today is not 1993, when a full Armenian army fought virtually alone against the gates of Azerbaijani uncoordinated guerrilla groups without a single command and experience. You should have the army, which in 1993 simply was not! With this army, you do not fight, you have not even seen, to put it mildly, did not know it was strong or weak. Therefore, the repetition of the success of the early 1990's, you do not succeed, though, and promises some "hotheads" access to the Kura already one week after the outbreak of war. This is normally near people living categories beginning 1990 and did not understand that they have not. Reality is that if Azerbaijan survive the first months of war and vtyanet Armenia in a protracted and arduous war (to which the economy of Azerbaijan, in contrast to Armenia, is fully prepared), with a ratio of 1:1 chance of loss from Armenia, Nagorno Karabakh is retained by the end of the war almost no. Armenia fill refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh, which will further hit to its economy and on your meager personal welfare.
At the beginning of a future war, Azerbaijan is quite acceptable, and trench warfare with the amount of heavy pieces, even without any special promotions on the front, but Armenia depleted much faster and the end of the war will take place in a completely different pace and with the accelerated move of Azerbaijani troops to the state border. If transient war - this war of armies, the long - this war-ravaged economy.
The difference in economic and military potential of Armenia and Azerbaijan each year will only increase. This is not an empty propaganda, but a sober look at things and a sober outlook, who are aware of many Armenians. Karabakh from Azerbaijan will never relinquish as it had expected in Armenia. Therefore, the probability of war in the event of the intransigence of your diplomats at the talks will only increase. And because your diplomats are unlikely to go on assignment, the probability of war with all these effects can be estimated as nearly 100 percent.
The outcome of the war would be disastrous for Armenia. Even if we assume that the war neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan are not able to fundamentally change the current front line, any war - but then at least transient or long - will have on the economy already weak in Armenia is much more devastating impact than in Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan quickly recover from the financial cost, but Armenia plunge into further poverty! Today, Armenia klyanchet in various countries and organizations of stabilization loans and Azerbaijan their own hands. And how do you intend to fight with such an empty treasury, and such debts?
Secured the future and living in wealth, as in Europe, you do not. Today you are much better than going to live tomorrow, and tomorrow - better than the day after tomorrow. At the same time, your compatriots in the diaspora will continue to live in wealth in rich countries, and free environment, without the daily threat of bombs falling on their homes. Today in Armenia there is practically not a single family without relatives in the United States or Europe. Ask them what kind of life there, and tell you how it is easier to live in comparison with Armenia. Are not you secretly mechataete move to and live in a human? But to get a foreign country is not so easy, the immigration laws more and more tightened. It is much easier and feasible to move to a life in the West through Azerbaijan, through the International Committee of the Red Cross. This is real, and there are concrete examples.
We urge you to keep your place of service and move the front line - alone or in groups. You all know, as in Azerbaijan related to the Armenian military forces, the front line coming to our side. Neither one of your countrymen are not beaten, not humiliated, not troubled. All well-fed, provided with all necessary, and most importantly - no one has so far not issued back in Armenia, where they waited to severe punishment. Personal safety of everyone crossing the front line of Armenian soldiers was provided in full. All crossing the border have been transferred to third countries. And as in such cases the choice of countries is provided by the transfer of military personnel passing the front line, they all tend to choose countries in Europe and North America, where they waited for the arrival of the full support and the immediate granting of political asylum.
This is a chance for you. Take advantage of them today, until the war began. No you will not be coerced. Just look at the leisure of your own future and the future of your children. Did they die by the explosion of rockets or live in a peaceful Europe? You decide.
If you switch the front line, remember that your relocation to a third country will accelerate the availability of your carry identity papers. The lack of documentation when you ottyanet your move to Europe. Therefore, do not forget to bring all you have to place your past military service documents. They only help you. We recommend that you also grab a piece of white cloth, which you raise in the form of the first man from the Azerbaijani side - whether voennosluzhaschiy Armed Forces of Azerbaijan, or a civilian. If the white matter in itself does not prove, just lift your hands in the form of first person or if you hear an order to stop. For your own safety is not recommended to make sudden movements or run away to behave in any manner that could cause unexpected reactions from the Azeri side. Just stop, lift up your hands or white matter, and clearly refer to the representatives of the Azerbaijani side with the words: «We have the Armenian armed forces, voluntarily crossed the front line, to surrender. We ask you to protect ». Soldiers of Azerbaijani Army briefed in detail about the actions they should take in this situation.
If you may not be a soldier and a civilian (shepherd, farmer, resident of the village, etc.), asked him to call the Azerbaijani armed forces or the local authorities (eg police). It is necessary to demonstrate its peaceful intentions, so as not to cause an unexpected reaction. In principle, our Committee is conducting outreach and training and the civilian population of front-line areas, but much depends on your actions in the first few minutes. Critical for you are the first few minutes of contact with the Azerbaijani side, so be careful in the first few minutes does not behave defiantly or otherwise, which could lead to the use of weapons against you. After this critical phase of your future security will be strictly maintained, with the Azerbaijan State supervision of the International Committee of Red Cross and our committee.
Be careful when passing through mine fields. Beware of early shots in the back than from the Azerbaijani positions. It is therefore essential to quickly away from the Armenian positions and has quietly come to the Azerbaijani military. Do so with the Azerbaijani positions you clearly see and have seen your show of hands. This is for your own safety and quiet move to the United States or Europe.
The transition teams are encouraged to choose a senior, preferably better than the rest speak Russian. This adds to your safety in the first few minutes of contact with the Azerbaijani side and help to avoid misunderstandings ..
Already under the auspices of the Azerbaijan state, you can get professional legal advice on how to transfer to third countries are also your immediate family members remaining in Armenia.
At your request your name not be disclosed to the media, but this request, you must make directly with the delivery of the Azerbaijani authorities. Azerbaijan State guarantees your anonymity.
While the war frozen, use this unique opportunity to leave and move to Armenia for permanent residence in the United States or Europe. This is real, than winning the lottery green cards the U.S., as well as a chance here - a 100 per cent.
Azeri defense committee of former Armenian troops
This is the translation to the above letter in Russian.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Analysis
Resorting to military Armenii18 Sun Jul 2009 09:35
Soldiers and officers of the Armed Forces of Armenia! Future recruits!
Is well known that the global economic crisis has hit hardest of all to Armenia, which would be difficult for all the other republics of the former Soviet Union to get out of it. The standard of living in Armenia will continue to fall, the economic development of your country will continue to lag behind the rest of the South Caucasus and the entire post-Soviet space. The delay would also closed the border, unresolved conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and Armenia's strong energy dependence - factors that have neskoro disappear.
Constant probability of resumption of hostilities does not add confidence to the ordinary citizen of Armenia, including the military and its armed forces, prospective recruits and reservists in stock. It is no longer a secret that, despite the fact that the victorious blitzkrieg could not be any of the parties, with some time in the economy of Azerbaijan was still more room to withstand long and arduous battle than that of the Armenian economy. That is, if in the first months of the war, Armenia and Azerbaijan are unlikely to molneonosno defeat the other side, by the protracted war economy of Azerbaijan is prepared, certainly better than that of Armenia. This is not propaganda, but the opinion of independent experts.
Azerbaijan can afford to buy any weapons for world prices (good sellers always available), while Armenia is heavily dependent on free supplies or supplies at discounted prices, which, however, can not continue indefinitely. In addition, we should not forget that for such handouts, and Armenia also pays benefits somehow their own, not necessarily live with money, which ultimately also reduces its national wealth.
In Azerbaijan there, like Armenia, big problems with human resources. The population of Azerbaijan is continuing to grow, grow, and emigration from Armenia. Geographically, the fate is also favorably located in Azerbaijan than in Armenia, and in war it is also inevitably affected.
No less important is the fact that Azerbaijan was created and is developing its own military industry, which is not, and hardly expected in the coming years in Armenia. Financial, energy, material, manpower reserves in Azerbaijan is much more than that of Armenia. In short, if a debut chess game on the battlefield of Armenia can not be exchanged, it is one heavy piece of three Azerbaijani and if the figures would be equivalent to the exchange (most likely scenario), then go to the endgame of the parties with different forces and dokanchivat shipment Azerbaijani army will be completely other rate.
To prevent such a deplorable scenario, Armenia, Azerbaijan will need to inflict a crushing blow like preventive six Arab-Israeli war of 1967. Today, however, Armenia has hardly able to do so. It is time for you all, finally, realize that in the court today is not 1993, when a full Armenian army fought virtually alone against the gates of Azerbaijani uncoordinated guerrilla groups without a single command and experience. You should have the army, which in 1993 simply was not! With this army, you do not fight, you have not even seen, to put it mildly, did not know it was strong or weak. Therefore, the repetition of the success of the early 1990's, you do not succeed, though, and promises some "hotheads" access to the Kura already one week after the outbreak of war. This is normally near people living categories beginning 1990 and did not understand that they have not. Reality is that if Azerbaijan survive the first months of war and vtyanet Armenia in a protracted and arduous war (to which the economy of Azerbaijan, in contrast to Armenia, is fully prepared), with a ratio of 1:1 chance of loss from Armenia, Nagorno Karabakh is retained by the end of the war almost no. Armenia fill refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh, which will further hit to its economy and on your meager personal welfare.
At the beginning of a future war, Azerbaijan is quite acceptable, and trench warfare with the amount of heavy pieces, even without any special promotions on the front, but Armenia depleted much faster and the end of the war will take place in a completely different pace and with the accelerated move of Azerbaijani troops to the state border. If transient war - this war of armies, the long - this war-ravaged economy.
The difference in economic and military potential of Armenia and Azerbaijan each year will only increase. This is not an empty propaganda, but a sober look at things and a sober outlook, who are aware of many Armenians. Karabakh from Azerbaijan will never relinquish as it had expected in Armenia. Therefore, the probability of war in the event of the intransigence of your diplomats at the talks will only increase. And because your diplomats are unlikely to go on assignment, the probability of war with all these effects can be estimated as nearly 100 percent.
The outcome of the war would be disastrous for Armenia. Even if we assume that the war neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan are not able to fundamentally change the current front line, any war - but then at least transient or long - will have on the economy already weak in Armenia is much more devastating impact than in Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan quickly recover from the financial cost, but Armenia plunge into further poverty! Today, Armenia klyanchet in various countries and organizations of stabilization loans and Azerbaijan their own hands. And how do you intend to fight with such an empty treasury, and such debts?
Secured the future and living in wealth, as in Europe, you do not. Today you are much better than going to live tomorrow, and tomorrow - better than the day after tomorrow. At the same time, your compatriots in the diaspora will continue to live in wealth in rich countries, and free environment, without the daily threat of bombs falling on their homes. Today in Armenia there is practically not a single family without relatives in the United States or Europe. Ask them what kind of life there, and tell you how it is easier to live in comparison with Armenia. Are not you secretly mechataete move to and live in a human? But to get a foreign country is not so easy, the immigration laws more and more tightened. It is much easier and feasible to move to a life in the West through Azerbaijan, through the International Committee of the Red Cross. This is real, and there are concrete examples.
We urge you to keep your place of service and move the front line - alone or in groups. You all know, as in Azerbaijan related to the Armenian military forces, the front line coming to our side. Neither one of your countrymen are not beaten, not humiliated, not troubled. All well-fed, provided with all necessary, and most importantly - no one has so far not issued back in Armenia, where they waited to severe punishment. Personal safety of everyone crossing the front line of Armenian soldiers was provided in full. All crossing the border have been transferred to third countries. And as in such cases the choice of countries is provided by the transfer of military personnel passing the front line, they all tend to choose countries in Europe and North America, where they waited for the arrival of the full support and the immediate granting of political asylum.
This is a chance for you. Take advantage of them today, until the war began. No you will not be coerced. Just look at the leisure of your own future and the future of your children. Did they die by the explosion of rockets or live in a peaceful Europe? You decide.
If you switch the front line, remember that your relocation to a third country will accelerate the availability of your carry identity papers. The lack of documentation when you ottyanet your move to Europe. Therefore, do not forget to bring all you have to place your past military service documents. They only help you. We recommend that you also grab a piece of white cloth, which you raise in the form of the first man from the Azerbaijani side - whether voennosluzhaschiy Armed Forces of Azerbaijan, or a civilian. If the white matter in itself does not prove, just lift your hands in the form of first person or if you hear an order to stop. For your own safety is not recommended to make sudden movements or run away to behave in any manner that could cause unexpected reactions from the Azeri side. Just stop, lift up your hands or white matter, and clearly refer to the representatives of the Azerbaijani side with the words: «We have the Armenian armed forces, voluntarily crossed the front line, to surrender. We ask you to protect ». Soldiers of Azerbaijani Army briefed in detail about the actions they should take in this situation.
If you may not be a soldier and a civilian (shepherd, farmer, resident of the village, etc.), asked him to call the Azerbaijani armed forces or the local authorities (eg police). It is necessary to demonstrate its peaceful intentions, so as not to cause an unexpected reaction. In principle, our Committee is conducting outreach and training and the civilian population of front-line areas, but much depends on your actions in the first few minutes. Critical for you are the first few minutes of contact with the Azerbaijani side, so be careful in the first few minutes does not behave defiantly or otherwise, which could lead to the use of weapons against you. After this critical phase of your future security will be strictly maintained, with the Azerbaijan State supervision of the International Committee of Red Cross and our committee.
Be careful when passing through mine fields. Beware of early shots in the back than from the Azerbaijani positions. It is therefore essential to quickly away from the Armenian positions and has quietly come to the Azerbaijani military. Do so with the Azerbaijani positions you clearly see and have seen your show of hands. This is for your own safety and quiet move to the United States or Europe.
The transition teams are encouraged to choose a senior, preferably better than the rest speak Russian. This adds to your safety in the first few minutes of contact with the Azerbaijani side and help to avoid misunderstandings ..
Already under the auspices of the Azerbaijan state, you can get professional legal advice on how to transfer to third countries are also your immediate family members remaining in Armenia.
At your request your name not be disclosed to the media, but this request, you must make directly with the delivery of the Azerbaijani authorities. Azerbaijan State guarantees your anonymity.
While the war frozen, use this unique opportunity to leave and move to Armenia for permanent residence in the United States or Europe. This is real, than winning the lottery green cards the U.S., as well as a chance here - a 100 per cent.
Azeri defense committee of former Armenian troops
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