Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Artashes]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Are all the Russian troops that are on the Turk/ Persian border Russian? Or are some Armenians that are sub contracted?
Artashes

[HyeFighter2]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Are all the Russian troops that are on the Turk/ Persian border Russian? Or are some Armenians that are sub contracted?
Artashes

idk bout persian, but my friend are with russian on turkish border

[matrixfighter]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Are all the Russian troops that are on the Turk/ Persian border Russian? Or are some Armenians that are sub contracted?
Artashes

They are all citizens of Russian Federation. Many of the conscripts are ethnically Armenian (from north Caucasus and other parts of Russian Federation), who either choose to serve at the Russian base in Armenia, or are encouraged to do so. The main point to note here is that they are Russian citizens - shooting at them means shooting at Russia. That being said, the proportion of conscripts within this force is much lower than within the overall Russian Army - main forces here are well trained Russian "contracters".

[matrixfighter]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

As for Gabala radar station, even Azeri news agency have become pessimistic at this point. However, Russian MFA has all but ruled out building another such station in Armenia, saying that they are more likely to stick with the one in Russian Armavir.

That's very interesting. Can you please elaborate on what you mean by this? Any recent articles around this topic worth reading?

To my mind things are getting very shaky around Artsakh in recent months: the Gabala station, Azerbaijan granting permission to Israel to use the airfields (despite a very stark prior warnings from Iran in 2010 and 2011), the refusal to sign in Kazan (which proved to Medvedev that Aliyev is definitely gearing up for war), the escalation around Iran, the Israel-Azerbaijan weapons deal, the permission to hold so called "pro-democracy" rallies (which are nothing more than Pan-Turkic fascist parties like Popular Front and Musavat), which are shouting "we want Garabagh, not Eurovision" etc etc.
The current Azeri regime has no real vested interests in an all out warfare (it knows much to well that the moment that the hostilities restart BP will turn off the oil and gas pipelines, just like it did in August 2008, which will lead to major financial disruptions), but the situation is definitely tense and a little spark could unleash the kind of chain of events that is neither desirable, nor preventable by both sides.

[davidoga]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

That's very interesting. Can you please elaborate on what you mean by this? Any recent articles around this topic worth reading?

To my mind things are getting very shaky around Artsakh in recent months: the Gabala station, Azerbaijan granting permission to Israel to use the airfields (despite a very stark prior warnings from Iran in 2010 and 2011), the refusal to sign in Kazan (which proved to Medvedev that Aliyev is definitely gearing up for war), the escalation around Iran, the Israel-Azerbaijan weapons deal, the permission to hold so called "pro-democracy" rallies (which are nothing more than Pan-Turkic fascist parties like Popular Front and Musavat), which are shouting "we want Garabagh, not Eurovision" etc etc.
The current Azeri regime has no real vested interests in an all out warfare (it knows much to well that the moment that the hostilities restart BP will turn off the oil and gas pipelines, just like it did in August 2008, which will lead to major financial disruptions), but the situation is definitely tense and a little spark could unleash the kind of chain of events that is neither desirable, nor preventable by both sides.

Some links:

http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/101958/

http://rt.com/politics/gabala-radar-russia-baku-nato-095/

http://vestnikkavkaza.net/news/politics/26990.html

We are not supposed to post Azeri media links, but if you google "Gabala radar station dinosaur museum" and click on the first news.az link, you will find their pessimism about reaching a deal.

With regards to your comment about Israelis using Azeri airspace: I'm assuming you got that information from the Foreign Policy journal? Because both Israeli and Azeri officials have denied this. Is there any other evidence?

Also, you made a comment a couple of posts ago about Azerbaijan not being able to afford weaponry after 2013-2014. Is this because peak oil theory dictates that output from Azeri/Chirag/Guneshli will decrease, or because of some other reason that I am not understanding?

[matrixfighter]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

WHY AZERBAIJAN HAS NOT RE-STARTED THE WAR YET, AND WHEN IT IS LIKELY TO DO SO?

I think many of the readers here will find this chart very interesting. I have been keeping an Excel document with all the data on how much oil bbl/day Azerbaijan produces in a given month (2002-2012), how much is consumes domestically, how much is exported etc. I've been keeping this data file for personal interest because back in 2006 (remember Rambouillet ?) just like in 1998 and just like in 1994 there was a whole euphoria around arguably endless oil reserves. Back then I spoke to some oil trading experts and I came to a conclusion that the peak year for ACG oil field would be circa 2010. The word in the markets back then was that Azerbaijan's oil peak would be in 2014-2020. But now this chart is revealing some interesting data, ha...

The chart is based on JODI (UN) and goes up until January 2012. But if you google for some APA (an Azeri news agency) recent articles, you will notice that despite all the talk to pick up the production in 2012, their production (up to this April) falls by roughly 9% each month compared to 2011. So the trend of ever reducing oil production is still continuing. (Something to think about).

More food for thought: in nearly 7 years of operation, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline has never been filled to it's maximum capacity. The 1,200,000 bbl/day that so many Azeri politicians and western investors were ecstatic about never materialised. BP is obviously angry over this. So is Turkey (which is not gaining as much transit fees as it hoped for). It is now becoming obvious that Kazakh oil is definitely not doing to flow through that pipeline. So... make your conclusions.

But I think this diagram is revealing something else... the reason why the war has not started yet. Notice that dent in August 2008? That's the BP shutting down the BTC pipeline for just 4 days in the wake of South Ossetia war. That's a pretty significant disruption right there, because it takes time to fill the BTC pipeline again and to bring the production up to speed again. So imagine what kind of effect would a 2 week war in Artcax (with uncertain results) have. (we then see the production picking up again, but then there's another dent - the fire at one of the BP towers, which was revealed in Wikileaks).

I should also mention an International Crisis Group (ICG) analysis which claimed that 2012-2013 might be the years when the the possibility of the war breaking out may be to its closest. Their scenario reads something along these lines: after 2011 oil production and thus oil exports will decrease. Subsequently, the Azeri government will have less money to spend on social programs, which may lead to dramatic social upheavals, at which point the Azeri government may want to divert public's attention by initiating military activities in Nagorno-Karabakh. (I'm not sure that I agree with such a scenario, though it's a pont worth mentioning).

[davidoga]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

@matrixfighter

So by the turn of the next decade Azerbaijan should be pretty much out of oil?

[bell-the-cat]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

They are all citizens of Russian Federation. Many of the conscripts are ethnically Armenian (from north Caucasus and other parts of Russian Federation), who either choose to serve at the Russian base in Armenia, or are encouraged to do so. The main point to note here is that they are Russian citizens - shooting at them means shooting at Russia. That being said, the proportion of conscripts within this force is much lower than within the overall Russian Army - main forces here are well trained Russian "contracters".

The Russian Federation soldiers are all placed in locations where nobody is likely to fire at them - i.e. along the Turkish border - and as all located far away as anyone can be from any potentual conflict flash-point. The officers are well-known for their petty criminal activities (there is a lot of smuggling both ways across the Armenia-Turkey border and it is all controlled by the Russians, and they also get their cut from the Armenian mafia-run stone quarries that operate along the border).

[Vrej1915]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The Russian Federation soldiers are all placed in locations where nobody is likely to fire at them - i.e. along the Turkish border - and as all located far away as anyone can be from any potentual conflict flash-point. The officers are well-known for their petty criminal activities (there is a lot of smuggling both ways across the Armenia-Turkey border and it is all controlled by the Russians, and they also get their cut from the Armenian mafia-run stone quarries that operate along the border).

Ba hoooooooooooooooo.
You seem such well informed Bell!
My place is next to the border.
I see the miradors disrupting my view on 2 sides, but yet you are better informed than me, from over the Channel !!!

Thanks you spared us where do they buy their toilet paper in the russian baracks, and what color they use?

[Vrej1915]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Ստեփանակերտի օդանավակայանի բացումը` ամռանը

http://www.armenialiberty.org/content/article/24597233.html

Լուսինե Մուսայելյան
29.05.2012
Լեռնային Ղարաբաղի կառավարությունը երեքշաբթի օրը օդագնացության ոլորտի վերաբերյալ երկու որոշում ընդունեց:

Հաստատվեցին Լեռնային Ղարաբաղի օդանավակայանային եւ թռիչքների աերոնավիգացիայի սպասարկման սակագները, ինչպես նաեւ թռիչքային կանոնները: Այսպիսով, մոտեցավ Ստեփանակերտի օդանավակայանի վերաբացումը: Ամենայն հավանականությամբ, ամռանը կսկսվի Ստեփանակերտ-Երեւան թռիչքի իրականացումը: Այս մասին «Ազատություն» ռադիոկայանին տեղեկացրեց ԼՂ քաղավիացիայի վարչության աշխատակազմի ղեկավար Տիգրան Գաբրիելյանը:

«Այսօրվա դրությամբ զբաղված ենք փաստաթղթավորմամբ, օդանավակայանի սերտիֆիկացման աշխատանքներն են ընթանում, աերոնավիգացիոն ծառայության սերտիֆիկացման աշխատանքներն են ընթանում, այսինքն մենք փորձում ենք ստեղծել այն իրավական դաշտը, որը թույլ կտա միջազգային ստանդարտներին համապատասխան իրականացնել թռիչքները: Փորձում ենք անել ամեն ինչ, որպեսզի ընդունված իրավական ակտերը, նորմատիվ հրամանները լիարժեքորեն համապատասխանեն ICAO-ի (International Civil Aviation Organization) կողմից սահմանված պահանջներին եւ սահմանափակումներին, եւ գրեթե ավարտական փուլում ենք», - ասաց Գաբրիելյանը:

Այս պահի դրությամբ թռիչքների սակագինը դեռեւս հստակեցված չէ, սակայն Գաբրիելյանը համոզմունք հայտնեց, որ դրանք կլինեն բավականին մատչելի:

«Բնականաբար, սակագինը չի կարող ավելի էժան լինել, քանի տաքսիով փոխադրումը, սակայն հաշվի առնելով այն հանգամանքը, որ ավելի արագ այստեղ կհասնես եւ մեկ օրվա ընթացքում կարող ես ավարտել քո աշխատանքը եւ հետ գալ, այսինքն մնալու, սնվելու ծախսերը դուրս են գալիս մեջտեղից, ինձ թվում է` ուղեւորի համար ավելի հարմար կլինի օգտվել օդանավից», - ասաց նա:

Գաբրիելյանի խոսքով` թռիչքները կիրականացվեն ամեն օր, իսկ որոշ ժամանակ անց` օրական մի քանի անգամ:

«Դա կապված է ուղեւորահոսքից, սակայն մենք համոզված ենք, որ ուղեւորահոսքը կարողանալու ենք ապահովել: Ուսումնասիրելով ներկա դրությամբ Ստեփանակերտ-Երեւան ուղեւորահոսքը, կարող ենք հստակ ասել, որ մոտ 3-4 ամիս հետո մենք խնդիր ենք ունենալու օրական մի քանի անգամ թռիչք իրականացնելու», - համոզված է պաշտոնյան:

Ստեփանակերտի օդանավակայանը կառուցվել է 1974 թվականին եւ հիմնականում չվերթեր է ընդունել Երեւանից եւ Բաքվից: 1992 թվականից օդանավակայանը մատնվել է պարապուրդի: 2008-ին սկսվեց օդանավակայանի նոր` գլխավոր մասնաշենքի կառուցումը, որը նման է թեւերը մեկնած արծվի:

Օդանավակայանի վերաբացումը նախատեսված էր 2011-ի մայիսի 9-ին, սակայն դա անորոշ ժամանակով հետաձգվեց` պաշտոնական վարկածով զուտ տեխնիկական պատճառներով: Այս ընթացքում լայնացվել է թռիչքուղին, ինչպես նաեւ հարթեցվել է թռիչքուղուն հարակից մի քանի բլուրների գագաթները, որպեսզի հնարավոր դառնա ժամանակակից մեծ ինքնաթիռների ընդունումը: