Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

so typical of my luck, i'll be in yerevan in a week..........

arakeretzig, where are you located now? You can send us reports from Hayastan next week. I have a feeling that these skirmishes are going to last more than a few days.

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

arakeretzig, where are you located now? You can send us reports from Hayastan next week. I have a feeling that these skirmishes are going to last more than a few days.

sweden. i'll be in yerevan for 2 weeks till end of month. I'll try to update here if i hear smthing

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

apa.az

http://times.am/?l=en&p=8103

Another soldier of Azerbaijani is wounded. This time it is reported the soldier of the Azerbaijani Army hit a mine.

APA reports about the incident.

Soldier of the Azerbaijani Army, Niyameddin Shaleddin Mehdiyev, 20, wounded as a result of mine explosion on the border. The wounded soldier was taken to the hospital.

Deputy Chief of the Defense Ministry’s press service Teymur Abdullayev confirmed fact to APA.

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

sweden. i'll be in yerevan for 2 weeks till end of month. I'll try to update here if i hear smthing

Thanks man. My work colleague is en route to Armenia today and will be there this evening. I'll see what he can dig up to.

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

So far our response has been very limited, we only respond to their attacks, that's after 4 seperate attacks. our MoD seems to like the status quo so much, they don't wont to even take punitive measures. what you guys think?

[HyeFighter2]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

sweden. i'll be in yerevan for 2 weeks till end of month. I'll try to update here if i hear smthing

you living in sweden???

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

This latest round of violence initiated by Azerbaijan was obviously timed to coincide with Hillary Clinton's visit the the region. The Azeris are trying to make it impossible for the US to ignore the current situation despite all the other myriad of problems and headaches the US is currently facing, thus forcing the US to become more involved in peace talks (this will anger the Russians further- Armenia will benefit from this). We'll see if this bares fruit but my guess is that US interest will wear off in a few weeks and we'll be back to the status quo much to the chagrin of the Azeris- again, the US has much bigger fish to fry. The Azeris clearly feel the US is their best bet and they're obviously desperate at this point to use such measures and waste lives at what basically amounts to a last ditch effort less than full-scale war. Now they have painted themselves into a corner. Rest assured, the Armenians will find a solution to the current situation on the border and this may result in the Azeri lines being pushed back from not only the Tavush region, but others as well (or at the very least, counter measures to impact the situation on Azeri border regions).

I expect Armenia sees the military necessity of reinforcing and strengthening their lines, protecting civilians, and creating a positional advantage for defense. This is already backfiring on Azerbaijan. If they want to escalate or start a new war, they'll have one. I can envision hundreds of thousands of new refugees from Tovuz, Akstafa, Kazak, Shamkir and even Ghandzha flooding their way east if this keeps up- Azerbaijan may revisit the old nightmare. This is not bluster but most likely the Armenian strategy should this escalation continue. Just look at the map. If the Azeris start the war anew, Northwestern Azerbaijan will most certainly fall (if not immediately at least eventually) which will effectively cut off the oil pipeline and create a brand new refugees crisis and the give the Aliyevs the chance to fully relocate to Dubai as their regime falls. The Azeris have way more to lose but are take a slight gamble. We'll see if they go all-in.

[Hovo]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Armanen]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

This latest round of violence initiated by Azerbaijan was obviously timed to coincide with Hillary Clinton's visit the the region. The Azeris are trying to make it impossible for the US to ignore the current situation despite all the other myriad of problems and headaches the US is currently facing, thus forcing the US to become more involved in peace talks (this will anger the Russians further- Armenia will benefit from this). We'll see if this bares fruit but my guess is that US interest will wear off in a few weeks and we'll be back to the status quo much to the chagrin of the Azeris- again, the US has much bigger fish to fry. The Azeris clearly feel the US is their best bet and they're obviously desperate at this point to use such measures and waste lives at what basically amounts to a last ditch effort less than full-scale war. Now they have painted themselves into a corner. Rest assured, the Armenians will find a solution to the current situation on the border and this may result in the Azeri lines being pushed back from not only the Tavush region, but others as well (or at the very least, counter measures to impact the situation on Azeri border regions).

I expect Armenia sees the military necessity of reinforcing and strengthening their lines, protecting civilians, and creating a positional advantage for defense. This is already backfiring on Azerbaijan. If they want to escalate or start a new war, they'll have one. I can envision hundreds of thousands of new refugees from Tovuz, Akstafa, Kazak, Shamkir and even Ghandzha flooding their way east if this keeps up- Azerbaijan may revisit the old nightmare. This is not bluster but most likely the Armenian strategy should this escalation continue. Just look at the map. If the Azeris start the war anew, Northwestern Azerbaijan will most certainly fall (if not immediately at least eventually) which will effectively cut off the oil pipeline and create a brand new refugees crisis and the give the Aliyevs the chance to fully relocate to Dubai as their regime falls. The Azeris have way more to lose but are take a slight gamble. We'll see if they go all-in.

I agree that northwest Azerbaijan would likely fall. And this would allow Armenia to drive deeper and link up with Russia.

[davidoga]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

So far our response has been very limited, we only respond to their attacks, that's after 4 seperate attacks. our MoD seems to like the status quo so much, they don't wont to even take punitive measures. what you guys think?

Hate to say this, but we should not beleive full-heartedly what Armenian media says either. Granted, they are not filled with as much BS as Azerbaijan, but I think we can safely assume that not all facts are presented.