Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[gokorik]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

You have already found one reason why not to depoly up there. I am sure you can think of more.
Just ask yourself questions like for example: Can the equipment (especially the Yahoodi made Green Pines) operate at extreme mountain temperatures? How good are they in detecting low flying aircraft against ground clutter? Does range affect radar detection ability? Do the various atmospheric conditions that are common in mountainous places affect radar performance? etc.etc.

And then simply ask: why not simply deploy the S-300s and radars close to what we want to defend?

Thank you. Do you know if Armenia posses any equipment to accurately guess a radar's location?

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Thank you. Do you know if Armenia posses any equipment to accurately guess a radar's location?

even if he knew, i dont think he'd tell you

And then simply ask: why not simply deploy the S-300s and radars close to what we want to defend?

btw, do you know if our s300PS's missile's range is 70km or 90km? I can't for the life of me get a factual figure.

[davidoga]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

@Mos, Sargsyan is not my president, I am not a citizen of the Armenian Republic. Like I said, what I'm saying is not slander as long it is true. And nothing said on this forum, positive or otherwise, helps Armenia.

As for the discussion about the future of Armenian expansionism, I agree that we need a border with Russia. I also think that Armenia needs an outlet to water. We can knock out two birds with one stone via Georgia (as we will have access to Black Sea). It will also give us opportunity to take Javahk. I understand that this seems hard to imagine, but so does a border with Russia through Azerbaijan. I think if Armenia had a choice between the two, it would choose the former, seeing as Northern Azerbaijan has no Armenians.

Not to mention the fact that Azeri pipelines run through Georgia and ,yes, that this would dispel notions of Pan-Turkism (although not completely because there is Nakhchivan).

[ArmeniaSacra]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

the thing is, if azeris attack NKR again, we have to give them another lesson. Otherwise, every few years, they'll do the same thing with impunity (kinda like the tavush skirmishes) but on a much bigger scale and wider timeline.
IMHO, Every action needs to have a reaction. What's the best way to punish azeris(and turks at the same time)? Take over BTC pipeline.
If we don't dare play their game, then we might as well quit and call it a day now, cuz they will play it to the end.
Who do you think Azeris get their green card from on attacking NKR and Armenia? (the US/Israel, backed by turks)
They want to finish us off for good, shall we let them do it, or seize a historical moment?
I mean when was the last time armenia has such an oppertunity to liberate its lands? 1000 years ago?

I agree with you that turks could not be trusted and they would like to get rid of us for good if they have the chance. On the other hand, I'm trying to be as realistic as possible. I think it's easier to defend our 45000SqKm with smaller strategic gains (if we had the chance) with our 3 million population. Than to conquer a 100,000SqKm area which, even if we succeed in conquering or liberating, we wouldn't be able to preserve (strategically speaking). Other than that, I don't see anything wrong with your post...just different point of views

1. There will be no oil route through Armenia. No matter what.
2. Georgia is the weak link between Turkey and Azerbaijan (and the Turan dream). Turkey knows that but can't do much about it. Severing the border between Georgia and Azerbaijan is a heavy punch right on Turkey's face.

Even if it looses the Georgia border, Azerbaijan will still remain a fossile fuel exporter until its reserves dry out. The exports will have to transit entirely through Russia. That is exactly what Russians want: complete control over Azeri oil exports and revenues. Just like the Arab Sheikhdoms are controlled by the USA, Azerbaijan will be controlled by Russia.

If Armenia created a border with Russia, the BTC pipleline would be coming under Armenia control...something the west would never allow...As for Azeri gas passing through Russia...the west won't allow that either...hence we return to my initial point, that the west will never allow Armenia to form a border with Russia through seizing of the BTC pipeline and breaking the Azerbaijan-Turkey connection.

1. Immediate goal: Hold on to what we have and push the aggressor back.
2. Short term goal: Capture key points (like certain hills, villages etc.) that will make our positions more defensible in case of a prolonged conflict or a future war.
3. Medium term goal: Pushing the borders back to where it will be almost impossible for the enemy to wage another war against us in the future, while destroying its economy and infrastructure. For example, capturing the land all the way to the Kura river.
4. Long term goal: Conquer enough territory so that we have a common border with the Russian federation. That will change the whole geopolitics for the region and guarantee the survival and prosperity of our nation for a long period of time.

Totally agreed...but since I said in my post that I don't believe the next war will last for long (maybe a couple of days or weeks), that's the reason why I don't think we should accomplish more than the liberation of some strategic hills and highlands.

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

If Armenia created a border with Russia, the BTC pipleline would be coming under Armenia control...something the west would never allow...As for Azeri gas passing through Russia...the west won't allow that either...hence we return to my initial point, that the west will never allow Armenia to form a border with Russia through seizing of the BTC pipeline and breaking the Azerbaijan-Turkey connection.

Never say never. only more than 20 years ago, An armenia with its own army and economy maybe have seemed impossible, now look where we're. If we take BTC or not, Russia will annex the whole region again and be done with it.

[davidoga]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

You are all forgetting peak oil theory. I just read an Azeri update this morning saying that output was 10% less this month than in June 2011. Caspian Azeri oil will not run out in the next 10 years, but it will become unprofitable to extract. At that point, the West stops caring and Armenia/Russia/Iran have their way with their Caucasus.

Armenia needs to prepare for the worst yes. But it also needs to be ready to capitalize on the above opportunity.

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

You are all forgetting peak oil theory. I just read an Azeri update this morning saying that output was 10% less this month than in June 2011. Caspian Azeri oil will not run out in the next 10 years, but it will become unprofitable to extract. At that point, the West stops caring and Armenia/Russia/Iran have their way with their Caucasus.

Armenia needs to prepare for the worst yes. But it also needs to be ready to capitalize on the above opportunity.

there's still lots of Gas there though.
things will be more interesting in the end of this century, Azeris will have to grow a brain by then or they're screwed.

[davidoga]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

there's still lots of Gas there though.
things will be more interesting in the end of this century, Azeris will have to grow a brain by then or they're screwed.

It's all the same pipelines. Gas condensate from Shah Deniz is mixed with ACG oil and transported via BTC and Southern Caucus. Liquid hydrocarbons make up the VAST majority of Azeri exports, so their economy will take a hit regardless.

Besides, what do you think will happen to investment flow when everyone finds out that Azerbaijan has been lying about its reserves?

[ZORAVAR]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

If Armenia created a border with Russia, the BTC pipleline would be coming under Armenia control...something the west would never allow...As for Azeri gas passing through Russia...the west won't allow that either...hence we return to my initial point, that the west will never allow Armenia to form a border with Russia through seizing of the BTC pipeline and breaking the Azerbaijan-Turkey connection.

Check your references please.
A good chunk of Azeri fossil fuel goes to Russia already...and Russia pays for it partly by cash and partly by arms shipment (S-300, Mi-35 etc.)

Totally agreed...but since I said in my post that I don't believe the next war will last for long (maybe a couple of days or weeks), that's the reason why I don't think we should accomplish more than the liberation of some strategic hills and highlands.

You and I do not decide how long the war will last. It is governments in Yerevan, Baku, Moscow. Washington etc. who will decide how long it will take and what will be the objectives/goals.

[Surenas]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Agreed with Mos, why is this a pity? The revolution rid Iran of subservience to the West and established a truly influential country. God willing, a similar (but not Islamic) revolution will free Armenia of corruption and complacency.

Because the Mullah-regime is responsible for the execution of more than 30.000 Iranians, less freedom and more corruption. We have to deal with all kind of backward Islamic values. This period is the most darkest period in Iran's whole history.