Bashar al-Assad, Syria and the Armenian people

[Mos]

Re: Bashar al-Assad, Syria and the Armenian people

Actually Israel has been quite mum over Western efforts to oust Assad. They know this devil, but they are scared of what could replace him. Look at how much tension has increased between Egypt and Israel since the ouster of Mubarak and the recent elections which brought the MB to power. More than likely the same scenario will occur in Syria should Assad be forced out. Also, Israel is on poor terms with the Turks still, so I don't see Ankara and Tel Aviv working together on this one. In comparison with the West, Israel is actually being quite level headed about the whole Arab Spring, not because of some noble love for the dictators but because it has to work with these new governments, many of which are openly hostile to them, where as the Europeans and Americans are distant from the Middle-east.

But surely they would prefer the opposition over Assad. It was Sharon who wanted to invade Syria several years back. I'm not saying the new Syria would be allies with Israel, but probably better than Assad. In the end, I think that their desire to weaken Iran makes the ousting of Assad more favourable to them.

[Tigranakert]

Re: Bashar al-Assad, Syria and the Armenian people

Forbes

A Tale of Two Repressions: Bahrain and Syria

Russia’s continued support of Bashar Al-Assad has provoked a chorus of outrage from across the political spectrum – Democrats, Republicans, progressives, conservatives, almost everyone has been falling over themselves to denounce Russian perfidy in ever more hysterical terms. US ambassador to the UN Susan Rice, in particular, has been so openly acrimonious and condescending that I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to wake up tomorrow morning and read that she had labeled her Russian counterpart, Vitaly Churkin, “a real douchebag.”

Of course, the critics of Russia’s Syria policy have a point. Russia’s continued support of Syria’s embattled and bloodstained regime really is appalling and, more than that, seems to be rather pointless: it’s hard to see how Assad is going to be able to hold on to power for more than another few months regardless of what happens in the UN security council.* One can, of course, note that Russia has significant long-term geopolitical interests in Syria, sizable weapons contracts and the presence of a warm-water naval base in Tartus, but these seem rather trifling and empty observations in an environment where innocent civilians are being gunned down en masse.

But what seems quite noteworthy is that many of the people who are now loudly demanding that the United States “do something” in Syria, and who are using Russia’s support for Syria as proof that the Russians are little better than barbarians, were almost entirely silent in the case of a brutal and lethal crackdown on a popular protest movement in another Middle Eastern country: Bahrain.

In symmetry that seems almost too perfect, much as Syria is a significant consumer of Russian weapons and hosts a Russian naval base, Bahrain is a significant consumer of American weapons and hosts an American naval base. While it is true that the crackdown in Bahrain wasn’t nearly as lethal as the ongoing crackdown in Syria, it was nonetheless exceedingly nasty and brutal with dozens of protesters killed by security forces, several tortured to death, and the creation of a general atmosphere of government impunity and terror (particularly vile was the regime’s targeting of hospitals treating the wounded). Although the Bahraini government has made a big show of “reform,” and in classic fashion has commissioned a report, admitted that “mistakes were made,” and punished a few low-level functionaries, the government continues to brutalize protesters and has reluctantly consented to constitutional reforms that are exceedingly modest and amount to little more than a reshuffling of deck chairs.

Before proceeding further it is necessary to note that the United States is far better positioned to influence Bahrain than it is to influence Syria. Bahrain is a close ally and dependent of the United States and has long relied on American weaponry and American support to guard its security. Syria, on the other hand, has had awful relations with the United States for decades and there are no economic or security relationships to speak of. So while the presence of the Fifth Fleet gives the United States an enormous amount of leverage over Bahrain, the “levers” it has at its disposal with Syria are so weak as to be non-existent.

Having read articles from people like Leon Wieseltier, Anne Applebaum, Eliot Abrams, and David Pryce-Jones that either directly call for Western intervention in Syria or loudly bemoan Russian intransigence in supporting Assad (Pryce-Jones were perhaps the most colorful when he said that Sergei Lavrov is “a man as cold and mendacious as any commissar from Soviet times”), I thought I would do a little bit of digging to see how these paragons of morality in foreign policy, people who consider Russian inaction in Syria to be uniquely revolting, dealt with the brutal and violent suppression of the protests in Bahrain.

Applebaum has had almost nothing to say about the brutal crackdown in Bahrain – she mentioned it in passing in an article last February and approvingly noted that the Bahraini crown prince had been disinvited from the royal wedding in an April blog post. As best I can gather from scouring the intertubes, that’s all she’s had to say about it, it just apparently is not a topic that interests her despite her history of deep involvement with and advocacy of democracy promotion.

Leon Wieseltier, as best I can gather, has said nothing about Bahrain, though it is possible that he addressed the topic in an off the record lecture he gave in December. Wieseltier, even by the standards of political pundits, is known for his loquaciousness and he hasn’t exactly been shy about expressing his opinions on other issues, as a quick glance at his writing on Libya clearly so clearly demonstrates, so his silence is all the more baffling.**

Pryce-Jones has mentioned Bahrain several times but hasn’t had anything substantive to say, though I will give him credit for criticizing the Iranians for their hypocrisy on the matter. You see those dastardly Persians objected to the treatment of protesters in Bahrain even though they themselves have committed similar crimes. Can you imagine the nerve it takes to do something like that?

Unlike the others, Abrams, at least, saw fit to go into a fair bit of detail about Bahrain, writing numerous posts about the crackdown, including one that bemoaned the Obama administration’s gross hypocrisy. However, as best I can tell, Abrams didn’t really advocate doing anything. The harshest language he was able to summon wasn’t even about the murder of dozens of peaceful protesters, but about the shabby treatment of an American diplomat, treatment he said should “have us thinking out loud about the future of the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain.” On the spectrum of action and inaction “thinking out loud” is, of course, far closer to “doing nothing” than it is to “starting a war.”

Abrams position is perfectly in keeping with the way in which interventionists attempt to deflect the inevitable accusations of hypocrisy: he doesn’t actually defend the actions of the Bahraini government (to do so would be in decidedly bad taste) but he also doesn’t propose any concrete actions. The United States should fret and frown, and maybe even have the State Department release a very stern and strongly-worded statement to the press, but certainly shouldn’t do anything rash like providing armaments to the opposition much less starting a campaign of “targeted air strikes.”

Compare the antiseptic, anodyne, and almost pro-forma descriptions of Bahrain with just some of what has been said about Syria. Here’s Pryce-Jones:

“To arm the Free Syrian Army is self-defense, as it may be the only measure still available to prevent the Syrian civil war from swelling and bursting from a regional issue into an international crisis.”

And here’s Abrams:

The key issue in Syria today is who will win — our side or the opposing side, which is a real axis of evil. This isn’t about the exact confessional balance of those opposing Assad, or the exact provisions of the next Syrian constitution. All those questions will come with victory against the bad guys — but only with victory.

And here’s Wieseltier:

We should aid and arm the Free Syrian Army, perhaps with the Saudis and the Qataris and Obama’s regional idol Erdogan, and offer protection to the parts of the country that they control. We should immiserate the Assad regime economically and banish it to a North Korean purgatory diplomatically. Like the army proposed by the Pentagon, we must be “agile, flexible and ready for the full range of contingencies.”

I raise all of this because, even though within the “serious” American foreign policy establishment there is virtually no discussion about how unbelievably hypocritical and self-serving we appear, others, particularly the Russians, are not so easily fooled. They can readily discern that our noble-sounding claims about interest in “democracy” are palpably fraudulent – one of our closest regional allies, Saudi Arabia, is one of the most brutally repressive regimes on the planet, and we have repeatedly shielded other allies, including Bahrain, from any consequences for actions that, when committed in unfriendly countries, have been cited as causes for war. So even though our gross double standards regarding Bahrain and Syria might appear, at first glance, to be totally unrelated to our relationship with Russia they are actually quite important because of the suspicion and paranoia they inevitably breed. The Russians do not appreciate being excoriated, mocked, and vilified for doing something, shielding a nasty regional ally, that we do every day. Lastly, the Russians, the Chinese, and other rising powers like predictability, and an America that weaponizes a concept as nebulous as “democracy” is the very opposite of predictable: there can be no clearly defined rules for promoting such a concept since the term itself is subject to so much debate.

Some degree of hypocrisy is probably inevitable in the execution of foreign policy, but the strident, almost gleeful, hypocrisy of American foreign policy in the Middle East is dangerous not only for its effects on the region itself (which are considerable) but because it slowly poisons America’s relationships with a number of other countries.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2012/02/13/a-tale-of-two-repressions-bahrain-and-syria/

[Federate]

Re: Bashar al-Assad, Syria and the Armenian people

Exit Plan: Armenians of Syria may need escape if Assad regime collapses



Last week in Aleppo, where the Armenian community is mainly centered, 25-year old soldier Vigen Hayrapetian was among the 28 victims of explosions. More than ten days ago an Armenian youth from a wealthy family was kidnapped and was released last Friday in exchange for ransom money. (The Armenian community, however, does not view that kidnapping incident as an ethnic issue directed against Armenians).

These incidents have raised concerns among Armenians of Syria, although in the cities with large Armenian communities, namely in Aleppo, Damascus, Latakia, Kesab and Kamishli, the situation is reported to be stable and manageable; nonetheless, the overall instability in the country, naturally affects the Armenian community as well.

During the Wednesday parliament session in Armenia, Premier Tigran Sargsyan said answering Armenian Revolutionary Federation Dashnaktsutyun party leader Vahan Hovhannisyan’s question on what measures the government has taken for worst-case-scenario developments: “We will take all necessary steps to show full support to our compatriots”.

The Armenian community of Syria is one of the biggest in the Middle East, and has lead a well-off and safe life during the three decades of the Assads’ reign (father and son), and in case of power turnover dangerous changes cannot be ruled out.

Experts believe that a change of power may have unpredictable consequences for Armenians, considering two facts: first of all that the majority of opposition are Islamists with al-Qaeda representatives among them and anti-Christian sentiments, and second, that their transition/national council was formed in Turkey.

Ruben Safrastyan, director of the Institute of Oriental Studies at RA National Academy of Sciences (NAA), does not rule out a possibility of “violence against Christians, and especially against Armenians”, should chaos rule in the country.

Armenia’s strategic partner Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov denied the accusations of supporting Assad: “We are neither friends, nor allies with President Assad.”

However, Russia and China again vetoed on Monday the UN Security Council’s resolution criticizing the Syrian authorities and calling for President Bashar al-Assad’s resignation; on Tuesday Lavrov met Al-Assad urging to start negotiations with the opposition and refused the international appeal to try to convince Assad to resign.

Many in Armenia hope that Russia would be able to resist international pressure and not go against Syria; some Armenia-based politicians, nonetheless, have called upon Armenians of Syria to take a neutral stance.

That, however, is not easy for Armenians.

“It is natural that the majority of Armenians would support Bashar al-Assad, since they led safe and prosperous lives under his leadership, ethnic rights were fully protected, they have schools, churches, and it is under that regime Armenians see the chance for ethnic survival,” says Arax Pashamyan, senior specialist of Arab studies at NAA.

As representatives of the Syrian-Armenian community say, there isn’t specific ethno-motivated encroachment upon Armenians or any other ethnic minorities, however, the overall instability in the country has triggered a tangible rise in crime.

“Of course it’s rather quiet in the cities where Armenians reside, however, there are social issues, energy crisis, for some 6 hours a day electricity is cut off; it’s not dangerous, but gives ground for worries,” Nairi Mkrtchyan, 43, told ArmeniaNow. Mkrtchyan moved to Armenia a decade ago from Kamishli but his family, his parents are still there.

Armenia states its readiness to accept Syrian Armenians, but head of RA Migration Agency Gagik Yeganyan does not anticipate a big flow of emigrants from Syria.

“Judging from the inflow of emigrants from Iraq to Armenia, I don’t believe there will be mass inflow from Syria either, because our state cannot offer substantial help and support. That’s why they’ll try to move to more developed countries,” says Yeganyan.

Syrian Armenian Petros Gasparian, who recently bought an apartment in Yerevan, doesn’t share this opinion.

“Maybe they are not informed and don’t know how difficult it is for citizens of Syria to be issued a visa to other countries. To us Armenia remains the only salvation. At present many of our friends who managed to sell their apartments in time, are buying a house in Yerevan,” Gasparyan told ArmeniaNow, adding that many people are now deprived of that opportunity as well, because it has become impossible to sell real estate since the clashes started.

http://armenianow.com/social/human_rights/35541/armenia_syria_community_civil_strife_assad

[Federate]

Re: Bashar al-Assad, Syria and the Armenian people

Actually Israel has been quite mum over Western efforts to oust Assad. They know this devil, but they are scared of what could replace him. Look at how much tension has increased between Egypt and Israel since the ouster of Mubarak and the recent elections which brought the MB to power. More than likely the same scenario will occur in Syria should Assad be forced out. Also, Israel is on poor terms with the Turks still, so I don't see Ankara and Tel Aviv working together on this one. In comparison with the West, Israel is actually being quite level headed about the whole Arab Spring, not because of some noble love for the dictators but because it has to work with these new governments, many of which are openly hostile to them, where as the Europeans and Americans are distant from the Middle-east.

I agree, Israel is cautious because it is used to the old/current dictators and cannot predict what will happen when/if they are changed. However, in the case of Egypt, nothing has changed diplomatically. SCAF and Israel remain best of friends and the Muslim Brotherhood has been in contact with the US, owing back to its CIA links during the 70s when they opposed secular pan-Arab leader Gamal Abdel Nasser. The only thing that has changed in Israeli-Egyptian relations so far is that the Bedouins in the Sinai now bomb the Egyptian gas pipeline that feeds Israel and Jordan regularly (12 times since the fall of Mubarak). Israeli-Turkish relations are cool but this is exaggerated. Turkey recently dropped or froze all charges regarding the Mavi Marmara killings, resumed some military relations, agreed to host NATO radar etc. It'll be business as usual soon.

If Assad falls, I see Syria becoming the next Jordan in terms of foreign policy, albeit with a Muslim Brotherhood twist.

[arakeretzig]

Re: Bashar al-Assad, Syria and the Armenian people

Exit Plan: Armenians of Syria may need escape if Assad regime collapses

tough times indeed. Some armenians will move to Armenia, the rest will go to europe/USA as usual. It's probably for the best. Armenians will be safer in the civilized world.

[Mos]

Re: Bashar al-Assad, Syria and the Armenian people

If Assad falls, I see Syria becoming the next Jordan in terms of foreign policy, albeit with a Muslim Brotherhood twist.

Well Jordan is on rather good terms with Israel. It's funny how the West, especially US is supporting an Islamic opposition with ties to Islamic radical groups such as al-Qaeda. Though it's not the first for them. The hypocrisy is just hilarious. I hope our compatriots can find their way easily back to the homeland.

[Armanen]

Re: Bashar al-Assad, Syria and the Armenian people

But surely they would prefer the opposition over Assad. It was Sharon who wanted to invade Syria several years back. I'm not saying the new Syria would be allies with Israel, but probably better than Assad. In the end, I think that their desire to weaken Iran makes the ousting of Assad more favourable to them.

I think the Israel leadership is divided over this issue. Some care more about getting at Iran, while others do not know what will happen should Assad go, and how that will affect the issue over the occupation of the Golan Heights as well as other facets in Syrian-Israeli relations. The leadership there is not monolithic and it is a mistake to treat them as such.

[Armanen]

Re: Bashar al-Assad, Syria and the Armenian people

I agree, Israel is cautious because it is used to the old/current dictators and cannot predict what will happen when/if they are changed. However, in the case of Egypt, nothing has changed diplomatically. SCAF and Israel remain best of friends and the Muslim Brotherhood has been in contact with the US, owing back to its CIA links during the 70s when they opposed secular pan-Arab leader Gamal Abdel Nasser. The only thing that has changed in Israeli-Egyptian relations so far is that the Bedouins in the Sinai now bomb the Egyptian gas pipeline that feeds Israel and Jordan regularly (12 times since the fall of Mubarak). Israeli-Turkish relations are cool but this is exaggerated. Turkey recently dropped or froze all charges regarding the Mavi Marmara killings, resumed some military relations, agreed to host NATO radar etc. It'll be business as usual soon.

If Assad falls, I see Syria becoming the next Jordan in terms of foreign policy, albeit with a Muslim Brotherhood twist.

The ruling junta in Egypt will not last long, and the relationship between the MB and CIA is not going to last either. It was out of pure convience, not ideology or something deeper. As soon as the MB secures itself and weakens the junta, just like AKP has done in Turkey, you'll see more aggressive posturing against Tel Aviv. Through their hubris, the West is setting the Middle-east on a very destructive path, and Israel will be paying the price. Not sure if the neo-cons and others in Washington, London, and Tel Aviv are realizing this. Again, I think not, and it is due to their sheer arrogance.

As for Turkey, they are still part of the Western establishment, no question about that, however, they are not the willing puppet they once were and in the past 3 years or so they have been willing to push back at times, even if for appearances sake and for domestic consumption. I agree that at the highest levels they are firmly within the Western camp and they will continue to view Iran and Russia as their geopolitical rivals, and vice versa. This is working in Armenia's favor but more should be done by officials in Yerevan and our diaspora in Russia and to a lesser extent, in Iran.

[Mher]

Re: Bashar al-Assad, Syria and the Armenian people

Well Jordan is on rather good terms with Israel. It's funny how the West, especially US is supporting an Islamic opposition with ties to Islamic radical groups such as al-Qaeda. Though it's not the first for them. The hypocrisy is just hilarious. I hope our compatriots can find their way easily back to the homeland.

Or the fact that Syria is being condemned to hell for having civilian casualties when going after opposition militants who hide within civilians when America has killed thousands of civilians who have been deemed unavoidable “collateral damage”

[retro]

Re: Bashar al-Assad, Syria and the Armenian people

Although al-Assad and his Alawite and Christian cronies are clearly in a difficult position. I doubt these foreign backed, Sunni Islamist clowns have enough popular support in Syria to pull off a putsch. As Syria's security instruments are still firmly under Ba'athist control.

Those guerrillas in Syria look like foreign Mujahideen to me and they even have snipers. No way are those good ol boys 'Syrian Army defectors' and Syria's integrity has clearly been compromised by Sunni Islamists.

Tweedledum and Tweedledee
Agreed to have a battle;
For Tweedledum said Tweedledee
Had spoiled his nice new rattle.

Just then flew down a monstrous crow,
As black as a tar-barrel;
Which frightened both the heroes so,
They quite forgot their quarrel.