Regional geopolitics

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Simple question, simple answer: on who's orders were the Armenian traitors acting in Kars, Alexandapol, Ijevan ...., and why ???

As an experimentet tchekist still on payroll you seem, you still have to answer this simple question, whithout resorting to diversionary answers.
Who's orders, and why?

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Will a Turkish border deal block IS recruits?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34060925

By Frank Gardner
BBC Security correspondent


Fifteen months after the jihadists of so-called "Islamic State" overran Mosul and announced their controversial "caliphate", measures are in train that could seriously disrupt their supply of recruits.

In co-ordination with Washington and other NATO allies, Turkey is now considering imposing a buffer zone along part of its 700-mile common border with Syria.
The stated aim is to deny access by would-be jihadists to IS-controlled areas of northern Syria.

A US military spokesman recently claimed that the last 12 months of Coalition airstrikes had "killed around 10,000 IS fighters", a dubious metric for measuring military success and a hard claim to verify in this fluid conflict.

But even if true, western intelligence officials believe that IS has been able to regenerate its supply of recruits faster than it is being depleted.
So with IS still occupying largely the same area of Iraq and Syria that it did a year ago, how will the proposed Turkish border controls affect its flow of recruits?
Turkish-Syrian border
The main crossing route for would-be jihadists looking to join IS.


The normal method is to fly into Istanbul, no visa required for Europeans, meet up with a facilitator, take a bus to a town close to the Syrian border then use local smugglers to sneak across into IS-held territory.

An estimated 2.5 million Britons visit Turkey every year so at least 1,000 British jihadists and thousands more Europeans are believed to have evaded police and intelligence surveillance to cross into Turkey and reach IS territory.

Most of the 588-mile (900km) Turkish-Syrian border is controlled on the Syrian side by YPG (Kurdish Peoples' Protection Unit) forces, who are opposed to IS.
Turkey is hoping that a 60km buffer zone will close off the remaining IS-controlled length of border to the west.
This may slow down the flow of incoming European jihadists to IS, already down from its peak in 2013, but in practice loopholes in the border are likely to remain.


Since June 2014 IS jihadists have taken control of most of the main crossing points between Syria and Iraq, bulldozing away the checkpoints and declaring an end to the colonial-era 372-mile (600km) border with the Twitter hashtag SykesPicotNoMore.

Although frequently targeted by coalition airstrikes as they cross between Syria and Iraq, IS does have freedom of movement over much of this border.
However, to join IS this way any would-be recruit would have to first get themselves to Iraq and then negotiate their way through either Kurdish or Iraqi government and militia territory, so it is not an attractive option.
Jordanian-Iraqi border
Main road through Jordanian desert to Iraqi border and Karama crossing (photo by Frank Gardner)


Traffic through Jordan's desert border with Iraq has slowed
Jordan's desert border with Iraq at the Karama crossing once buzzed with busy traffic.
Lorries thundered up the highway from Aqaba to Baghdad but since the insurgency in Iraq accelerated, the traffic has slowed to a trickle.
Jordanian military and police units patrol the border with Iraq's troubled Anbar province and when we visited in May there was no traffic at all.
Iraqi government forces are in control of their side of the border although IS occupies the towns of Falluja and Ramadi further down the road.

Jordan closed its last crossing point, the Nassib crossing, on its 246-mile (397km) border with Syria in April 2015.



The Jordan-Syria border is now closed
When the Syrian conflict first erupted in 2011 Jordan opened its borders to thousands of refugees fleeing the fighting.
But since then Jordan, which is not a rich country, has struggled to cope with the influx.
The Zaatari refugee camp, close to the Syrian border, is now dubbed 'the fourth biggest town in Jordan'.
Jordan has its own internal problems with Islamist extremists, notably in Ma'an and Zarqa, so it has moved to stop the flow of any jihadists across the border into Syria.

Lebanese-Syrian border
If Turkey blocks most of its border with Syria to IS jihadists then Lebanon could well become the sole remaining option for them. Lebanon has a 250-mile (403km) border with Syria, much of it mountainous.

Hezbollah fighters are thought to be helping the Assad regime
This is frequently traversed by both the Iranian-backed Shia fighters of Hezbollah, who are helping to shore up the regime of Syria's President Bashar Al-Assad, and by Sunni jihadists fighting them.

IS enjoys some local support on both sides of the border in the far north-east corner of Lebanon where it has occasionally attacked Lebanese army positions.
But Lebanon would still present recruits and emigrants to IS with a far less attractive access route than Turkey.
What this means

IS may already be ahead of the game here.


In recent months its leadership in the Middle East has been advising followers in Europe to stay put and carry out attacks at home, rather than risk arrest and incarceration by making the journey out to Syria.

The net effect of this, assuming coalition airstrikes continue, could be to see IS numbers in its core "caliphate" heartland slowly reduce, though not necessarily to a level where its operations are seriously affected.

But conversely, the group is likely to intensify its already active propaganda campaign through social media, appealing to jihadists in both Europe and other parts of the Arab world to launch attacks.

[Hakob]

Re: Regional geopolitics

The Treaty of Sevres was not implemented, since when it was signed, Armenia was invaded by Turkish and Russian armies, simultaneously, and in full coordination.
Just like Poland was invaded by German and Russian armies in 1939.

This same mechanism is still in effect today.Situation in Caucasus has not changed much, Russia, turkey and western powers are the same too . If we kick Russia out, then we should expect Azeris and Turks with the blessing of Russians to finish us off. Since even turkey does not go in U.S. 'S interests or plans most of the time and never gets punished, all the western powers (with whom we supposedly will ally our selfs) will do is just lip service and laying down wreaths for us at the best.
So we still have Russia as the only true "ally" in our hand.
Better be carefull not to alienate them, but keep building up relations with west for strength and safety.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

This same mechanism is still in effect today.Situation in Caucasus has not changed much, Russia, turkey and western powers are the same too . If we kick Russia out, then we should expect Azeris and Turks with the blessing of Russians to finish us off. Since even turkey does not go in U.S. 'S interests or plans most of the time and never gets punished, all the western powers (with whom we supposedly will ally our selfs) will do is just lip service and laying down wreaths for us at the best.
So we still have Russia as the only true "ally" in our hand.
Better be carefull not to alienate them, but keep building up relations with west for strength and safety.

Agreed

[Artsakh]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Wow,amazing. You forgot? What's the name of the general? Look it up on the internet

How could I forget something that never happened? Or is that your childish method of attempting to avoid accepting that you're talking nonsense?

The Treaty of Lausanne does not talk of any boundaries

Uhhh, that's exactly what the Treaty of Lausanne DID, it recognized Turkey within the boundaries that it exists in today, that you see on official world maps in school books!

As regards Armenia, it simply re-affirmed the dealings between Turks and Moscow where Armenian lands were handed over to the Turks, including our national symbol mount Ararat--something unforgiveable.

But then again, how much can we really expect from a people that sold off a good chunk of their own homeland--Alasaka--to other countries??

Armenia is simply not mentioned in the Treaty!

Armenia is not mentioned because Armenia is done, finished...there's no Armenia...It's Bolshevik territory.

The Treaty of Sevres was only for dreamers. No one was interested in applying it

When you have the major world powers at war with Turkey, and attempting to partition it. When you have the major world powers recognizing Armenia under the Treaty of Sevres, when you have the Turkish government itself recognizing it, when you have the US drawing up the boundaries, it's hardly something that's insignificant, get it?

What stopped Armenia from implementing the Treat of Sevres?

What stopped Armenia from implementing it was the Turks and Russians joint dealings partitioning Armenia amongst themselves. What stopped it was the Turks refused to accept defeat, stood up, and fought back, not waiting for foreign powers to come to their rescue, and not accepting foreign dictations, get it?

When Armenia had fallen under the Bolsheviks, there was no Armenia to speak of.

The West felt at that point that it was better to keep Turkey intact, to avoid it falling into Soviet hands. THAT IS WHY IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE SOVIET UNION IS ESTABLISHED, TURKEY BECOMES A GOOD PARTNER OF THE WEST--THE VERY SAME FORCES THAT JUST MONTHS AGO WERE AT WAR WITH TURKEY AND TRYING TO DESTROY AND PARITION IT.

What that simply means is that politics is dirty business. It changes. Alliances shift. Those who are your enemy today, may be your worse enemy tomorrow. And to have you head shuved up the Russian assss so deep as to forget the past is naieve, and could end up disappointing you in the future...that's all Im saying. I'm not making the case that the West is our friend, for they have betrayed us many a times.

According to our friend Hakob, for centuries Armenians had been amazing warriorsAccording to our friend Hakob, for centuries Armenians had been amazing warriors

After a genocide, simultaneous wars with Turks/azeris, when Armenians were able to throw the Red Army out of Armenia and establish Lerna Hayastan, with its meager resources, even if short-lived, you can get an idea of what Armenians are made of, get it?

[Artsakh]

Re: Regional geopolitics

That is just it Arty. We have four thousand years of history and you do not even need all of the fingers on your one hand to count our magnanimous victories(Avarair we lost btw).

I see you're not very well acquainted with Armenian history. Secondly, at the time Persia was a superpower. We went up against this superpower outnumbered and outgunned. We inflicted heavier losses on the persians (more than 3 fold), and in the end got to keep our faith, cemented the notion of "vasn kristos, vasn hayrenyats", and were largely autonomous, the Persians pretty much left us alone after that as long as we paid our taxes. The only reason its considered a "loss" is because Armenia didn't attain full independence, but its perhaps the most defining event in Armenian history. Avarayr was a true victory in the strategic and spiritual sense. And again, we were up against a superpower and inflicted heavier losses (MORE THAN 3 FOLD)

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

When short of argument, misinterpret or put words in the month of others....

Nah he is spot on as far as you are concerned. That post represents you and mr muradian/lragir perfectly as the mouthpiece for western propaganda that you are. I very much doubt your ability to have any original thoughts at all since all you are capable of is reposting garbage from one garbage publication produced by one garbage of an author. I think garbage is actually a very accurate description of you period.

[Hakob]

Re: Regional geopolitics

I see you're not very well acquainted with Armenian history. Secondly, at the time Persia was a superpower. We went up against this superpower outnumbered and outgunned. We inflicted heavier losses on the persians (more than 3 fold), and in the end got to keep our faith, cemented the notion of "vasn kristos, vasn hayrenyats", and were largely autonomous, the Persians pretty much left us alone after that as long as we paid our taxes. The only reason its considered a "loss" is because Armenia didn't attain full independence, but its perhaps the most defining event in Armenian history. Avarayr was a true victory in the strategic and spiritual sense. And again, we were up against a superpower and inflicted heavier losses (MORE THAN 3 FOLD)

One small addition, Vardanants war lasted more than 30 years and Avarair is only one episode of that war. In the end we forced Persians to accept our self governance and give up on attempts to assimilate us.
Avarair was not a dicisive victory, but a victory none the less, as it broke persia's resolve and drive in that war as it became clear to them that we were ready to fight and resist in such a way the it would extract too heavy tall from empire, which it was not ready to pay.
One more thing. At that time, as now, there were no truly independent nations or countries. Just 2 empires and the rest dependent on different levels from them. From only paying certain tributes(taxes) to being under total domination.

[UrMistake]

Re: Regional geopolitics

The only thing we need is , young educated folk ...full with energy/willpower/determination ...the other thing is unity under whichever system this world trows at us .

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

The only thing we need is , young educated folk ...full with energy/willpower/determination ...the other thing is unity under whichever system this world trows at us .

Education costs money, making/raising young folks takes money, energy/willpower/determination need hope. Unity is nothing more than an illusion for us Armenians. Non of the systems this world throws at us will give us any of these things. We have to get them ourselves.