Regional geopolitics

[Eddo211]

Re: Regional geopolitics

No! Again you misunderstood

Turkey is no dragon, it is just a turkey for future Thanksgiving table.

We don't need to destroy Turkish Army head on, we be dead....but under certain perfect condition in time chips falling in place Turkey will FALL by itself. Gray Wolfs killing Gray Wolfs.......Then we head West.

[Armynia]

Re: Regional geopolitics

This four points of Sun Tzu, are very important for Armenia's situation both today and in the future. Whatever enemy we would fight in near future this four points are important to bear in mind.

Sun Tzu:

1. "The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting"


2. "He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot, will be victorious"


3. "Invincibility lies in the defence; the possibility of victory in the attack"


4. "If you are far from the enemy, make him believe you are near"

[Hakob]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Yes a turkey that should have been carved up long ago yet here we are today thanks to numerous western interventions on her behalf. Do not forget history. Today yet again the turkey is being carved and yet again you will see the west saving it. NATO has kept the bird nice and safe from the claws of the bear for decades and the same western powers protected it far before that. It is a shame that this character uses the word vrej and 1915 for his intentions are clear as he wishes us to relive that year yet again for a final time. There is a reason why we have heads and brains, they are there to be used.

About 1 year ago, there was a documentary about closing events of WWII. When the events were shown about positions and occupation lines of allied armies in Europe, U.S. English forces were in chzecoslovakia about 200 miles deep. Soviet army was massing on the border with turkey in final preparations to invade. Intense talks started in order to reposition and redrawing of lines to keep Yalta conference deals.
Churchill urged U.S. To withdraw from chzecoslovakia in return for soviet promise not to invade turkey. They, in essence agreed to give all of chzecoslovakia and hungary(allies shared it with soviets too) and got a promise from Stalin not to invade turkey.
In this document, they opened up churchills negotiations and reasoning that it was better to keep soviets out of turkey. Western powers needed turkey more than half of chzecoslovakia and Hungary in stopping soviet advance.
This revelation stunned me.
On the drawing paper in conception for NATO, turkey was more important then some countries in the heart of Europe.

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Unfortunately the strategic location is still very much important for the west. To top it off there are now oil and gas routes running through it. We may see a replay of what happened to us now happening to the kurds with the west yet again supporting the bloodletting as usual.

[Artsakh]

Re: Regional geopolitics

On the drawing paper in conception for NATO, turkey was more important then some countries in the heart of Europe.

That's because Turkey serves as a buffer between Russia and Europe. There are other geopolitical factors at play. If the Russians invaded "Turkey" and reached the warm water ports of the Mediterranean, that would be a catastrophe for the West. It's not by chance that Turkey became the sole Muslim member of NATO, or because of its wonderful history of humanitarianism.

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

I think the West is pushing for war vs Russia. Everything has been done to incite such a war and I wonder what the motive is here? Do they feel like they have an advantage? Do they see a weakness? I think Putin has been very restrained and perhaps too restrained. With Russia fortifying Syria we are seeing yet another red line. With red lines reached in every point of contact there is only war beyond that. We are going to see either a unprecedented new agreements or a unprecedented new war.

[Artsakh]

Re: Regional geopolitics

I think the West is pushing for war vs Russia. Everything has been done to incite such a war and I wonder what the motive is here? Do they feel like they have an advantage? Do they see a weakness? I think Putin has been very restrained and perhaps too restrained. With Russia fortifying Syria we are seeing yet another red line. With red lines reached in every point of contact there is only war beyond that. We are going to see either a unprecedented new agreements or a unprecedented new war.

I'm betting on unprecedented new agreements, such as the one entered into by Iran the US/West. The once upon a time "land of opportunity" has turned into a jobless environment where the brightest, most educated individuals cannot find work, and the same soviet style is at work where it's all about connections. This country is rotting away, and cannot withstand more conflict without inciting the masses. The US population is patiently waiting for betterment. Any otherwise deterioration is going to get the sheeple to rise up, and it may not be pretty, especially with presidential elections coming up. US actions is Syria were likewise very restricted and cautious back a few years ago when they were talking about striking the country.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

About 1 year ago, there was a documentary about closing events of WWII. When the events were shown about positions and occupation lines of allied armies in Europe, U.S. English forces were in chzecoslovakia about 200 miles deep. Soviet army was massing on the border with turkey in final preparations to invade. Intense talks started in order to reposition and redrawing of lines to keep Yalta conference deals.
Churchill urged U.S. To withdraw from chzecoslovakia in return for soviet promise not to invade turkey. They, in essence agreed to give all of chzecoslovakia and hungary(allies shared it with soviets too) and got a promise from Stalin not to invade turkey.
In this document, they opened up churchills negotiations and reasoning that it was better to keep soviets out of turkey. Western powers needed turkey more than half of chzecoslovakia and Hungary in stopping soviet advance.
This revelation stunned me.
On the drawing paper in conception for NATO, turkey was more important then some countries in the heart of Europe.

If it stunned you, then you have not understood the basics of geopolitics seen for the British Empire.
It is a well known, and unargued thing that Churchill saved Turkey and Greece (Trakia), for the sake of that basics in 1945.
The country that benefitted first from the los alamos explosion, was Turkey.
Nevertheless, it still doesn't change the fact that Russia saved Turkey in 1918-21....

[londontsi]

Re: Regional geopolitics

...Nevertheless, it still doesn't change the fact that Russia saved Turkey in 1918-21....

dear master of geopolitics,

Why did France our ally and "protector" stabbed us in the back in 1922 in Giligia.

Simple because Russia throughout its history wanted access to warm waters.
British Empire and France and ... wanted it blocked.

Armenians were seen as natural allies to Russia.
That is why we were thrown to the dogs.
Get your history right.

PS. Treaty of Brest-litovsk through which Russia was forced hand back Russian conquests in Western Armenia.
Incidentally Russia was the only Victorious country to hand back conquered land back to the defeated.
Again the big powers were uneasy about Russia being too close to warm waters.

PS-2 !! - I do not dispute that Soviet Union financed Turkey during this period, for different reasons.

.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

dear master of geopolitics,

Why did France our ally and "protector" stabbed us in the back in 1922 in Giligia.

Simple because Russia throughout its history wanted access to warm waters.
British Empire and France and ... wanted it blocked.

Armenians were seen as natural allies to Russia.
That is why we were thrown to the dogs.
Get your history right.

PS. Treaty of Brest-litovsk through which Russia was forced hand back Russian conquests in Western Armenia.
Incidentally Russia was the only Victorious country to hand back conquered land back to the defeated.
Again the big powers were uneasy about Russia being too close to warm waters.

PS-2 !! - I do not dispute that Soviet Union financed Turkey during this period, for different reasons.

.

So??
What are you arguing about?
Nothing you said contradict what I said, and is all question of chronology.

Erratum: In Brest Litovsk, Russia was not only giving Western Armenia conquered during the war, but It was also Giving Kars Ardahan, that were not war conquests, but parts of Eastern Armenia incorporated in the Russian Empire in XIX..., plus, it gave away Igdir, that Previously was NOT part of the Ottoman Empire, and was conquered from Persia...

French Treason in Kilikia is of course unexcusable, but it is also true, that it is the consequence of the russian bolshevik alliance with Kemal.
Same as the loss and non intervention of entente navy in Zmurnya....

The core of the shift, in Turkey's fate was:
1- The fact that some turkish officers and valis, mostly the perpetrators of the Armenian Genocide, and thus the benefactors of the huge theft it resulted in, had too much to loose from a defeated turkish reality, and were ready to fight in a desperate run, much as the Nazi SS regiments in a falling Reich in April 45. They rallied around Mustafa Kemal. This fundamental reality is the core of the turkish denial since then of the Genocide, since the founders of modern turkey are the same war criminals.
2- The fact that bolshevik Russia not only abandoned huge sections of its previous territory in Brest Litovsk, but it shifted its side and shifted alliance by becoming active partner of that Kemalists, by helping financially and militarily the same turkish rebellion. Arms shipment, reverse stabbing of Armenian Republic by military invasion from the North and East , Russian bolshevik XI army... and sabotage from within by Armenian Bolsheviks....

So without the russian help, the probability Kemal would succeed was much smaller, if not nill.
All the resulting shift of situations are the result of not only Kemalist victories, but by the specter of a bolshevik arrival on the mediterranean shores...

Turks are good diplomats.
The same tactic threat, this time with an alliance with Hitler gave them the Alexandrette Sanjak in 1939.
So France selled Kilikia twice.
In 1921-22, and yet again in 1939.

Nevertheless, facts remain facts.
Russia saved modern Turkey in 1918-1921.
Russia is responsible of our actual fate, if not as much, then slightly after Turkey, but surely more than the Kurds, and the rest of allied entente nations....

This said, we will learn nothing if we do not accept our guilt.
Our guilt, is beleiving others, and beleiving that some other nation would risk the live of its sons for our well being.
Things like that rarely happen.
And if they do, never with Russia, Britain, Persia or France...
We must have remained united against all odds, refused slave mentality/ russophilia, at the core of armenian bolshevik treason, and any other X-philias, even if they were much less present and harmful...

There were objective reasons, first, the absence of an elite, educated and well informed class,..... huge refugee problems, starvation..... nevertheless, we had at our disposal huge arms quantities in Kars and Karin fortresses, we should have organised and fought for ourselves, against all odds.
No matter the excuses, and excuses there were a lot, we failed, because we beleived someone else would help us.

We did fight a couple of times hopelessly, out of despair, and it saved our day.
Sardarabat, ...., but yet again in Zankezur, where Njdeh did fight against all odds, against all expectations, firing on russian soldiers and their armenian servants bolsheviks..

Just same way, we faught the Artsakh war against all odds, and won, when we learned to fire on russian soldiers too....
No one helped us, (minor details put aside, and surely not russian), no major help, from ANY power.
Contrary, virtually everybody helped the enemy.
Yet we won, because we decided we will fight and die if necessary, but not wait others helping hand.

So no need to distort history, even if the lessons it teaches us are cruel and disturbing for our nowdays peace of mind.
That's not to say, we do not need to find alliances.
We of course do, and much more than any other nation. (let us beggin by having an Armebian foreign misnister??).
But as history and basics of diplomacy teach, no alliance are eternal.....
Our only difference, is that we have the unluck of an eternal enemy.

Russia was acting like an enemy in 91-92 (Goltzo, Shahumian, Martakert)
Russia did act an enemy in 2008, just after 888, with the Medvedev plan.
Russia is acting like an enemy today, by arming to the teeth our enemy.
The US was acting as an enemy in the 92, by the Goble plan.
The US was acting like an enemy in 2001, Key West...

Yet same Russia acted as an ally, when giving us some tactical advance in 1996, giving us time to breath.
Yet same US acted as an ally by blocking Medvedev plan, and is still doing same today.... not out of our interests. Out of their interests, of course.

Tomorrow, when Russia will be in deep xxxx, they may as well act as allies...
Tomorrow the US may well act as an enemy, if we are considered as being part of Russia....

-------

NB: I still wait your explanation on US arms supplies to enemies of Israel. Remember??