Regional geopolitics

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

http://lratvakan.am/?p=45384&l=am/tarmvo%D6%82xexov%D5%9D+vigen+hakobyani+het

5 / Հոկտեմբեր / 2015
«Թարմ ուղեղով»՝ Վիգեն Հակոբյանի հետ

Թույլ տնտեսությամբ Ռուսաստանի համար խաղաղապահ զորքերով տարածքը ողողոելով գերտերության տիտղոսը պահպանելու քաղաքականությունը երկար պատմություն ունի: Հատկապես հիմա, երբ Չինաստանի դիրքերն են ամրապնդվում: Սակայն Հայաստանում խաղաղապահ զորքեր տեղակայելու որոշողն ամեն դեպքում մենք ենք, մնում է՝ չմոռանանաք այդ մասին: Ինչ վերաբերում է Սիրիային՝ ապա Ռուսաստանի կողմից առաջարկված օգնությունը երկրին կօգնի գոնե ֆիզիկապես գոյությունը պահպանել:
Այսօրվա մեր հյուրն է՝ վերլուծաբան, քաղտեխնոլոգ Վիգեն Հակոբյանը:

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

CHINESE WARPLANES TO JOIN RUSSIAN AIR STRIKES IN SYRIA. RUSSIA GAINS IRAQI AIR BASE

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 2, 2015, 1:27 PM (IDT)

Russia's military intervention in Syria has expanded radically in
two directions.DEBKAfile's military and intelligence sources report
that China sent word to Moscow Friday, Oct. 2, that J-15 fighter
bombers would shortly join the Russian air campaign that was launched
Wednesday, Sept. 30. Baghdad has moreover offered Moscow an air base
for targeting the Islamic State now occupying large swathes of Iraqi
territory

Russia's military intervention in Syria has five additional
participants: China, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Hizballah.

The J-15 warplanes will take off from the Chinese Liaoning-CV-16
aircraft carrier, which reached Syrian shores on Sept. 26 (as DEBKAfile
exclusively reported at the time). This will be a landmark event for
Beijing: its first military operation in the Middle East as well the
carrier's first taste of action in conditions of real combat.

Thursday night, China's foreign minister Wang Yi, made this comment
on the Syrian crisis at a UN Security Council session in New York:
"The world cannot afford to stand by and look on with folded arms,
but must also not arbitrarily interfere (in the crisis)."

A no less significant development occurred at about the same time
when Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, speaking to the US PBS
NewsHour, said he would welcome a deployment of Russian troops to
Iraq to fight ISIS forces in his country too. As an added incentive,
he noted that this would also give Moscow the chance to deal with the
2,500 Chechen Muslims whom, he said, are fighting with ISIS in Iraq.

DEBKAfile's military sources add that Al-Abadi's words came against
the backdrop of two events closely related to Russia's expanding role
in the war arena:

1. A joint Russian-Iranian-Syrian-Iraqi war room has been working
since last week out of the Iraqi Defense Ministry and military staff
headquarters in Baghdad to coordinate the passage of Russian and
Iranian airlifts to Syria and also Russian air raids. This command
center is also organizing the transfer of Iranian and pro-Iranian
Shiite forces into Syria.

2. Baghdad and Moscow have just concluded a deal for the Russian air
force to start using the Al Taqaddum Air Base at Habbaniyah, 74 km
west of Baghdad, both as a way station for the Russian air corridor
to Syria and as a launching-pad for bombing missions against ISIS
forces and infrastructure in northern Iraq and northern Syria.

Russia has thus gained a military enclave in Iraq, just as it has in
Syria, where it has taken over a base outside Latakia on the western
coast of Syria. At the same time, the Habbaniyah air base also serves
US forces operating in Iraq, which number an estimated 5,000.

http://www.debka.com/article/24926/Chinese-warplanes-to-join-Russian-air-strikes-in-Syria-Russia-gains-Iraqi-air-base

[Artashes]

Re: Regional geopolitics

CHINESE WARPLANES TO JOIN RUSSIAN AIR STRIKES IN SYRIA. RUSSIA GAINS IRAQI AIR BASE

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 2, 2015, 1:27 PM (IDT)

Russia's military intervention in Syria has expanded radically in
two directions.DEBKAfile's military and intelligence sources report
that China sent word to Moscow Friday, Oct. 2, that J-15 fighter
bombers would shortly join the Russian air campaign that was launched
Wednesday, Sept. 30. Baghdad has moreover offered Moscow an air base
for targeting the Islamic State now occupying large swathes of Iraqi
territory

Russia's military intervention in Syria has five additional
participants: China, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Hizballah.

The J-15 warplanes will take off from the Chinese Liaoning-CV-16
aircraft carrier, which reached Syrian shores on Sept. 26 (as DEBKAfile
exclusively reported at the time). This will be a landmark event for
Beijing: its first military operation in the Middle East as well the
carrier's first taste of action in conditions of real combat.

Thursday night, China's foreign minister Wang Yi, made this comment
on the Syrian crisis at a UN Security Council session in New York:
"The world cannot afford to stand by and look on with folded arms,
but must also not arbitrarily interfere (in the crisis)."

A no less significant development occurred at about the same time
when Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, speaking to the US PBS
NewsHour, said he would welcome a deployment of Russian troops to
Iraq to fight ISIS forces in his country too. As an added incentive,
he noted that this would also give Moscow the chance to deal with the
2,500 Chechen Muslims whom, he said, are fighting with ISIS in Iraq.

DEBKAfile's military sources add that Al-Abadi's words came against
the backdrop of two events closely related to Russia's expanding role
in the war arena:

1. A joint Russian-Iranian-Syrian-Iraqi war room has been working
since last week out of the Iraqi Defense Ministry and military staff
headquarters in Baghdad to coordinate the passage of Russian and
Iranian airlifts to Syria and also Russian air raids. This command
center is also organizing the transfer of Iranian and pro-Iranian
Shiite forces into Syria.

2. Baghdad and Moscow have just concluded a deal for the Russian air
force to start using the Al Taqaddum Air Base at Habbaniyah, 74 km
west of Baghdad, both as a way station for the Russian air corridor
to Syria and as a launching-pad for bombing missions against ISIS
forces and infrastructure in northern Iraq and northern Syria.

Russia has thus gained a military enclave in Iraq, just as it has in
Syria, where it has taken over a base outside Latakia on the western
coast of Syria. At the same time, the Habbaniyah air base also serves
US forces operating in Iraq, which number an estimated 5,000.

http://www.debka.com/article/24926/C...Iraqi-air-base

If the above article is factual , Russian moves have been greatly strengthened , and conversely , western+ saud + Israel retoric has been reduced to threats & talk of action to counter the most assuredly intensification of the hammer Russia & allies are going to lay upon --- ALL --- those who are tearing Syria apart.
If china shows up with Iraq joining this endeavor , coupled with Syria & Hizbola & Iran , = terrorist getting run off , and in a lot less time than 4 + years.
Does Syria still have a seat at the UN ?
The USA + cohorts never tried to help the Syrian people. They have so far only destroyed Syria and caused half the population to flee and caused a quarter MILLION deaths.
And they ... USA + Europe + Arab kingdoms + Israel + others have financed and facilitated terror and destabilization in Syria for over 4 years.
The Russian alliance is better than the worthless western alliance.
One fuels terrorism , the others going to stomp on terrorism.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

5 / Հոկտեմբեր / 2015
Ասադը չի հանձնվի. ինչու է Ռուսաստանը Սիրիայում «Cui prodest» կամ ում է ձեռնտու

Աշխարհին չի հաջողվում մասնատել Ռուսաստանը կամ ծնկի բերել Սիրիան, որովհետև այդ երկրների ղեկավարներն ու ժողովուրդն ուզում են ունենալ պետություն: Երբևէ մտածե՞լ եք՝ թե ինչպես է ստացվում, որ պատժամիջոցների տակ ու համաշխարհային ճգնաժամերի ժամանակ տնտեսություն չունեցող Ռուսաստանը չի մասնատվում, կամ ինչպես է Ասադին հաջողվում պահել Սիրիան: Այստեղ կա կամք՝ ապրելու ու երկիր ունենալու: «Cui prodest» կամ ում է ձեռնտու ՝ Լևոն Շիրինյանի հեղինակային հաղորդաշարը:

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

With Russia’s Dep. Army Chief due in Israel, Moscow posts 64 S-300 ship-to-air missiles off Syria, N. Israel
DEBKA


Russia’s deputy chief of staff, Gen. Nikolay Bogdanovsky, accompanied by a large military delegation, arrives in Israel for a two-day visit on Tuesday, Oct. 6, to discuss increased coordination between the two militaries. However, Moscow seems to be sending Jerusalem an altogether different message: Friday, Oct. 2, the Russian Defense Ministry announced the surprise deployment of Navy cruiser, the Moskva, armed with 64 advanced anti-aircraft missiles S-300 ship-to-air missiles opposite the Syrian coastal town of Latakia.
DEBKAfile’s military sources point out that Russia, without saying so publicly, has thus created an effective no-fly zone over most of Syria, most of northern Israel, including the Golan, as well as southern Turkey, for US aircraft based there for air strikes in Syria; Cyprus, the site of British air force bases; and Jordan.
Since 2012, The Obama administration has been discussing the possibility of establishing no-fly zones in northern and southern Syria on a number of occasions, but has shelved the plan whenever a decision was imminent. Now, with one move, Moscow has imposed a no-fly zone over Syria.
The presence of the wide-ranging S-300s means that the Turkish, British, Israeli and Jordanian air forces will need to coordinate their aerial operations in Syrian or Lebanese airspace with Russia, or face the risk of their planes being shot down.
In the view of DEBKAfile’s military sources, the only aircraft capable of evading those advanced missiles are stealth planes. Neither the Israeli, British, Jordanian or Turkish air forces, nor the US squadron in Turkey consisting of F-16 fighters, have such aircraft at their disposal.
The S-300 has a range of 150 kilometers and can shoot down any type of missile, including cruise missiles, as well as planes.
If US President Obama truly wanted to deal effectively with Moscow’s military moves in Syria, besides saying that Russia is bound to fail, he would have ordered the deployment of US stealth fighters to Turkey and Israel. However,may have been held back from this step by fear of antagonizing Iran, which has so far delayed sealing the nuclear agreement with the world powers by putting it to vote in parliament.
The presence of Moskva off the shores of Syria and close to northern Israel creates a new situation that will very likely be discussed in the talks that start Tuesday in Tel Aviv between Russia’s deputy chief of staff and his Israeli counterpart, IDF Gen. Yair Golan.
Although Russian President Vladimir Putin promised Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu during their summit in Moscow on September 21 not to allow S-300 missiles reach the hands of the Syrian military, he made no promises about positioning them on a Russian warship in the Mediterranean facing Syria and northern Israel. .
Our military sources point out that Russian air strikes have not been confined to any single area so far, but the injection of S-300s into the war arena widens the Russian air force's options.
In an interview with CNN on October 4, Prime Minister Netanyahu described how the Russian operation in Syria had affected relations with Moscow. "We don't want to go back to the days when, you know, Russia and Israel were in an adversarial position,” he said. “I think we've changed the relationship. And it's, on the whole, good.” He added that Israel’s close relations with the US were in a completely different and special category.
When asked whether he thought Russia’s intervention would cause instability in the region, he seemed to avoid giving a detailed response, only saying, “I don't know. I think time will tell”.
However, on the topic of the transfer of advanced weaponry to Hizballah, the prime minister was very clear. ”If anybody wants to use Syrian territory to transfer nuclear weapons to Hezbollah, we'll take action,” he said.
It marked the first time for an Israeli prime minister to speak publicly on the possibility that the terrorist organization could acquire atomic weapons.

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

"However, on the topic of the transfer of advanced weaponry to Hizballah, the prime minister was very clear. ”If anybody wants to use Syrian territory to transfer nuclear weapons to Hezbollah, we'll take action,” he said.
It marked the first time for an Israeli prime minister to speak publicly on the possibility that the terrorist organization could acquire atomic weapons. "

The state of Israel is more of a terrorist organization then Hezbollah will ever be.

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

ERDOGAN'S SON SENT TO ITALY WITH BILLIONS IN CASE FAMILY HAS TO FLEE

15:19, 6 October, 2015

YEREVAN, OCTOBER 6, ARMENPRESS. In the latest series of tweets by
government whistleblower Fuat Avni, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's
son Bilal has allegedly been snuck into Italy with armed guards,
in the event the Erdogan clan must flee Turkey over possible treason
charges. "Armenpress" reports the aforementioned referring to BGN NEWS.

"Noticing that he's nearing the end of the road, [President Erdogan]
has ordered Bilal to 'quietly' leave the country in the company of
armed guards. The destination for Bilal and the considerable amount
of money with him is Italy," government whistleblower and Twitter
phenomenon Fuat Avni revealed in a series of tweets on Monday.

Fuat Avni has been a thorn in the side of President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party's (AK Party) for
nearly two years now, having correctly revealed many of their top
secret plans.

President Erdogan has allegedly been worried by an internal
investigation file, which establishes that he could be tried for
treason - the only crime for which a Turkish president can undergo
prosecution. The investigation file implicates Erdogan for his
involvement with the Kurdish settlement process, and has prompted
the president to send his son out of the country.

Avni claimed that Bilal Erdogan flew to Italy on Sept. 27, and that
the plan includes the possibility of his extended stay, allowing him
to take in other family members if required.

While there, he is also expected to tend to the family's bank accounts
in Switzerland and other countries, managing billions of dollars in
family finances. He will be staying in the vicinity of Lake Como,
near the Swiss border, giving him easy access to Swiss banks.

The family will decide whether or not Bilal will return depending on
the situation that emerges from the Nov. 1 snap election.

"[President Erdogan's] fears have reached unprecedented heights. In
his mind, he's planning to first sneak out all his money, then his
family and finally himself," Avni tweeted.

Avni claimed that Erdogan had given the task of arranging his son's
move to his "dirtiest" lieutenant, acting Foreign Minister Feridun
Sinirlioglu, who in turn had mobilized his "most trusted man,"
Ambassador to Rome Aydın Sezgin. Avni added that Sinirlioglu was
particularly pleased with the arrangement, since he expected to
receive a big commission without having to commit to anything just yet.

Bilal's armed guards were unable bring their weapons with them due
to Italy's gun laws, but Sinirlioglu was reportedly able to solve
the problem through trickery: the Turkish officials claimed that
the guards had been appointed as security by the Milan Consulate,
thus granting them permission to carry arms.

Sinirlioglu and Sezgin have also connected Bilal Erdogan with some
French nationals, says Avni, who will help smuggle him out of Italy
if the need arises.

In a second series of tweets posted Monday afternoon, Fuat Avni claimed
that President Erdogan has tasked his close personal aid, former
Interior Minister Erkan Ala, with finding a way to shift the blame for
the Kurdish settlement process - a potentially treasonous issue - onto
public servants and the military. Avni also claimed that many public
servants from the Prime Ministry, Justice Ministry, Interior Ministry
and Foreign Ministry, upon learning that the president's son had been
sneak out of the country, got in touch with the presidential palace
and also demanded out. "Erdogan's lieutenants are currently busy trying
to convince them to stay," Avni said, adding that the president needs
the public servants to cover up the mess he has gotten himself into.

http://armenpress.am/eng/news/821114/erdo%C4%9Fan%E2%80%99s-son-sent-to-italy-with-billions-in-case-family-has-to-flee.html

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Video of Russian navy striking ISIS in Syria via Caspean Sea.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=2&v=iMasnaAf_H4

[Artsakh]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Putin’s Syria Adventure Is An Opportunity For Washington And Ankara
By Lt Col John Barnett (USAF)
on October 07, 2015 at 10:36 AM

The bold military gamble in Syria surprised and confused the international community, but Putin has given the United States and Turkey a reason to more assertively counter Russia’s ambitions in its own backyard.

While all eyes are on Moscow’s dramatic entry into the Syria conflict, policymakers and military planners should not forget about Vladimir Putin’s ambitions in Russia’s “near abroad,” including the South Caucasus republics of Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan. By capitalizing on existing structures and interoperability, the United States and Turkey can thwart Russia’s efforts to expand its influence in the area, obliging Moscow to rein in its plans further abroad and allocate more resources closer to home.

But it will not be an easy marriage. Over the past decade, relations between Ankara and Washington have ebbed and flowed. The rise of Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party gradually distanced Turkey from the West, and both governments have had difficulty establishing shared interests on emerging issues in the Middle East and elsewhere. Moscow has sought to fill this vacuum by increasing its sway over Turkey’s foreign policy decisions.

Yet the latest events in Syria may encourage Ankara to change that equation and favor a lasting strategic alliance with the United States. The establishment of a Russian airfield on Turkey’s southern flank, reports of Syria-based Russian jets violating Turkish airspace, and increasing concern over the intentions of Syrian Kurdish forces have all given Erdogan a reason to reassess his cooperation with Putin. Erdogan may not want to look westward, but he shares Washington’s interest in containing Russia before it can broaden its footprint along Turkey’s borders.

THE KREMLIN’S CALCULUS IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS

In Moscow’s eyes, the South Caucasus should be under Russian dominion. Putin has openly described the Soviet Union’s disintegration as a disaster and has not hidden his enmity toward Western interference in Russia’s former Soviet neighbors. At the same time, he has methodically expanded Moscow’s political, economic, and military influence over Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan, with little to no international backlash.

In 2008, Russia intervened militarily against Tbilisi to support the separation of two Georgian enclaves, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Since then, it has steadily pushed for the annexation of both territories while quietly advancing their borders further into Georgian lands. During an August visit to Washington, Georgian defense minister Tinatin Khidasheli spoke candidly about this aggressive posture, highlighting a July incident in which the Russian border guard advanced South Ossetia’s administrative boundary further south to encompass part of the Baku-Supsa oil pipeline.

In addition, Russia has steadily augmented its air and ground forces at its military bases in Gyumri and Yerevan, Armenia, where it now has basing rights through 2044. Speculation continues about Moscow’s intention to position “peacekeeping” troops in Nagorno-Karabakh under the pretense of preventing further conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia has simultaneously strengthened its relations with Azerbaijan via military sales, bolstering the perception that it will exploit both sides of the conflict to increase its military and political influence.

Coupling hard power with softer measures, Moscow has also sought to expand membership in the Russian-dominated Eurasian Economic Union, with Armenia joining last January. Integrating Georgia and Azerbaijan would further increase Russia’s sway over economic markets and the exploration and transit of vast natural resources.

TURKEY NEEDS INDEPENDENT NEIGHBORS

Ankara is heavily dependent on Russia for natural gas distribution and trade, and it has long been reluctant to challenge Moscow on significant geopolitical issues. Most recently, it treaded very carefully around Russia’s 2008 invasion of Georgia, then refused to endorse Western sanctions over the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Erdogan’s September visit to Moscow reinforced this dynamic — after meeting with Putin, he modified his “Assad must go” policy seemingly to placate his Russian host.

Yet Turkey desperately needs less, not more, Russian intervention on its borders, especially in the South Caucasus. Ankara shares strong historical bonds with Georgia and Azerbaijan, and like Washington, it views the region as a geostrategic opportunity to work with likeminded, democratic, and independent states on numerous issues, such as increasing trade, diversifying energy sources, and fostering security alliances to counter transnational crime, nuclear proliferation, and terrorism. Using the South Caucasus as a transit point for key Turkish exports to Central Asia (e.g., machinery, iron and steel products, clothing) could become particularly important to Ankara over the next decade, as commerce with Middle East neighbors becomes less reliable amid conflicts in Iraq and Syria and open disagreements with Iran over the region’s future.

Most important, the South Caucasus is critical to Turkey’s diversification of energy resources. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration indicates that Russian supplies account for almost 60 percent of Turkey’s natural gas consumption, and demand is growing. Azerbaijan currently provides 10 percent of Turkey’s gas needs, but the TANAP pipeline will eventually increase that figure so long as the route remains free of external interference (construction of the line began this year and is projected to conclude in 2018). If Moscow’s influence in the Caucasus expands, Ankara may be forced to rely even more on Russian-controlled gas and petroleum resources, further strengthening Putin’s sway.

THE U.S. ROLE

Washington seems to be in reactive mode following Putin’s surprise adventures, but a more proactive approach involving relatively modest U.S. steps could accomplish much. Among them, a concise and visible American policy in the South Caucasus could strain Russia’s economic and military capacity while increasing Washington’s leverage. Any such policy must begin with a clear statement condemning Russia’s intrusions on regional sovereignty and democracy, calling attention to its push for annexation of prior Georgian territories. Currently, local leaders seem uncertain of Washington’s long-term position — Vice President Joe Biden’s 2009 visit to Tbilisi and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s trips in 2010 and 2012 were meaningful and well received, but the dearth of specific U.S. commitments may have come across more as mollifying Russia than fostering stronger U.S. engagement. Moscow’s ensuing actions in Ukraine and Syria should be the impetus for more direct attention, however.

In particular, offering a clear roadmap for Georgia’s inclusion in NATO would reinforce the bilateral commitment and challenge Russia on its doorstep. NATO members in Europe and elsewhere are likely more willing to accelerate Georgia’s timeline as concern grows over Moscow’s unpredictable actions, but Washington needs to take the lead.

Meanwhile, increased engagement could create the conditions for greater U.S. and Turkish private investment and services in the region, especially to support expanding fossil fuel exploration in Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea. Such outreach could also reassure Azerbaijan and Georgia that the strategic value of their efforts in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the global counterterrorism campaign has not been forgotten.

This diplomatic line of effort should be accompanied by clear shows of strength. The recent American-led naval exercises in the Black Sea (dubbed “Sea Breeze”) and joint land-based military exercises in Georgia (“Noble Partner” and “Agile Spirit”) set a solid foundation, as did Turkey’s “Caucasian Eagle” exercises with Georgia and Azerbaijan in June. Larger-scale exercises should be planned with both countries, sponsored by the United States and Turkey under the NATO banner.

Ankara and Washington should also exploit their respective advantages — proximity and fifth-generation aircraft — with unannounced displays of force. Turkey’s recent decision to let U.S. jets use Incirlik Air Base to target Islamist extremists in Syria was a limited deal, but it could facilitate more extensive joint efforts to give Russia strategic pause. Former U.S. ambassador James Jeffrey recently suggested that F-22 Raptors could be based in Israel to keep Moscow’s objectives in check inside Syria, knowing that even the feared Russian S-300 air defense system can be defeated by U.S. stealth aircraft (see PolicyWatch 2492, “Obama at the UN”). Similarly, deploying the F-22 — and, once operational, the F-35 joint strike fighter — to Incirlik to support Syrian operations and conduct exercises with the Turkish, Georgian, and Azeri air forces would reinforce Washington and Ankara’s commitment to the region.

Erdogan’s efforts to distance his country from the West tend to subside when Turkey’s core security interests are at stake. Moscow’s brazen military activities have left him uncomfortably in the middle of Russia’s designs to restore itself as a regional and global power. Ankara likely realizes that it cannot impede those designs unless it strategically partners with the United States, as in the past.

At a time when Moscow seems to be overextending itself, Ankara and Washington should exploit their potential advantage. Despite other global priorities, Washington has an opportunity to rein in Putin’s ambitions with only a modest investment of resources, and Ankara should be part of that equation in the South Caucasus.

Lt Col John Barnett (USAF), a National Defense Fellow at The Washington Institute, has completed command tours in Turkey and South Asia. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the U.S. Air Force, U.S. Department of Defense, or U.S. government.

Originally Posted on October 6, 2015

©2015 The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Reprinted with permission.

link: http://breakingenergy.com/2015/10/07...on-and-ankara/

[Artsakh]

Re: Regional geopolitics

The above article is leaving Armenia entirely out of the equation in its analysis. Deterioration in Russian-Turkish relations serves Armenia well. The only downside is that it puts our goals/dreams westward on hold--due to Turkey's significance for the West/US as a buffer (as has historically been the case). But that's alright, as our current priorities center around Artsakh anyway.