Regional geopolitics

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Montenegro invited to join Nato
BBC


Nato has invited Montenegro to join the US-led military alliance, in its first expansion for six years.
Jens Stoltenberg, the head of Nato, said it was a "historic decision".

Russia has repeatedly warned against the move, describing it as a threat to stability in the western Balkans.
Accession talks are expected to take about a year to complete.

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Re: Regional geopolitics

Russia hits back at Turkey by changing Syria 'game'

Moscow's retaliation after Turkey downed its military jet could tie Ankara's hands in Syria.
29 Nov 2015 2

Moscow seems to be moving closer to a Kurdish group which Turkey calls "terrorists" [EPA]

Zeina Khodr
Roving Correspondent

Russia is striking back after a "stab in the back by an accomplice to terrorists" by changing the "game" in Syria.

Moscow's retaliation is not just about severing economic and diplomatic ties. It is pursuing a policy that could tie Turkey's hands in Syria.

Ankara never received international backing for a safe zone across its border, but Russia has now ruled that out.

The deployment of S-400 anti-air missiles means Russia has effectively imposed a no-fly zone over Syria.

And now, Moscow seems to be moving closer to a group that has been the US-led coalition's main ground force in Syria - a group which Turkey, itself a member of that coalition, calls "terrorists".

The Syrian Kurdish forces (YPG) is a US-backed Kurdish group that has pushed the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) back from areas along the border with Turkey.


In an attempt to change the solely "Kurdish face" of anti-ISIL ground troops, it aligned with some Arab brigades to form "the Syria Democratic Forces" (SDF).

No doubt a further strengthened YPG will anger Turkey, which has long feared that Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria would stir up similar sentiments among its own Kurdish population.

The SDF are now engaged in a fierce battle with Turkey-backed opposition factions in what is considered to be an important corner of Syria - the northern countryside of Aleppo.
To be more specific: the area west of the Euphrates River, which Turkey calls a red line.

The SDF captured some opposition-controlled towns close to the Turkish border of Kilis - known in Syria as Bab al-Salameh, an important lifeline for rebel groups.

Russian air strikes have been targeting the area for days now.

US guarantees

Control there would allow the YPG to link predominantly Kurdish villages in the north, like Afrin, to areas under its administration from the town of Kobane to the Iraqi border.

To do this, the YPG must first take control of Jarablous, an ISIL-controlled town along Turkey's border.

There was talk of a US-backed Syrian Kurd offensive in Jarablous in the summer. That never happened, as Turkey threatened a cross-border operation.

Ankara apparently got the guarantees it wanted from the US.

The Kurds won't advance in the Aleppo region, and in return the coalition would be given access to Turkey's Incirlik air base from where it can launch raids against ISIL.



Days before the Russian plane was shot down, the US said it would start an operation with Turkey to finish securing the northern Syrian border area to cut off the remaining ISIL lifeline. Since then, there has been no talk about this military operation.

Bigger picture

The rules may now have changed. The YPG has still not pushed west of the Euphrates, but along with its allies, and with the help of Russian strikes, the SDF are threatening Turkey-backed opposition groups in another key border crossing, Kilis, west of Jarablous.


Can Turkey and Russia resolve their dispute?
Losing control of the northern countryside of Aleppo would be a setback for the opposition. Turkey, too, would lose influence.

But Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to be eyeing an even bigger victory. He called on the Assad government and the political wing of the YPG to unite. This has still not happened - at least not officially.

But Syrian Kurdish officials have said they are ready to work with anyone fighting ISIL, and anyone who works for a united, secular and democratic Syria.

Such an alliance would change the battlefield and the balance of power on the ground.

Source: Al Jazeera

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t84vrAAB6U8

latest maps of different fronts in surya
+
photos of T90, Akula, ... in Haleb.

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Re: Regional geopolitics

http://m.france5.fr/emissions/c-dans-l-air/diffusions/02-12-2015_437234

France 5
C’ dans l’Air : Le Double jeu de la Turquie



Mercredi, dans l’émission d’Yves Calvi C dans l’Air, sur France 5, la question posée aux spécialistes en géopolitique et de la Turquie, a tourné autour de la façon dont le président Erdogan mène sa barque au nez et à la barbe de tous. D’où la réflexion À quoi joue la Turquie ?

Dorothée Schmid (politologue, spécialiste de la Turquie), Jean-Dominique Guiliani (Fondation Robert Schuman), Frédéric Encel (docteur en géopolitique) et Pierre Servent (expert en stratégie militaire), nous éclairent sur les tenants et aboutissants de la posture turque sous le feu de la critique internationale, mais, qui envers contre tous tient la dragée haute à chacun, fourvoyée qu’elle est dans ses mensonges comme dans ses vérités, en particulier celle de la restauration ottomane, où le pseudo espoir d’un rêve européen répandu généreusement à l’adresse d’une population manipulée et désinformée, mais qui ne verra jamais le jour. Sans oublier ses relations ambigües avec Daesh, l’agression contre les Kurdes et la mise à l’écart de la presse d’opposition.

A coups de milliards, la France et l’Europe tentent un coup de poker pour freiner le déferlement des migrants syriens, nargués par une Turquie qui prendra le moindre prétexte pour ouvrir les vannes en cas de faux pas de ses “alliés“.

Émission très intéressante : voir ICI

http://armenews.com/article.php3?id_article=119413

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NB:
- Turkey wishes to enter in Europe, but their model of Europe is the Europe of the 30's
- Everybody does know, that Turkey has no european destiny, yet Turkey does blackmail the EU to continue the process of integration, and for just this illusion of integration, among other benefits, The EU taxpayers pay 1 Billion Euros a year, every year, already for years, for the "modernisation" of the turkish state services, in view of that integration...
- Till recently, until the russian anger, the US led coalition did forbid targeting the oil industry of isis, to avoid polluting the air and water bassins under ground... but more interestingly, there was a clear order to avoid hiting the thousands of oil trucks, since in every truck there was a turkish oil smugler, a civilian turkish smugeler must have been spared, as civilian...

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Re: Regional geopolitics

Maps of the different fronts in Syria:

http://www.edmaps.com/html/syrian_civil_war_in_maps.html

latest Map available on Latakia fronts:

http://www.edmaps.com/Syria_Battle_for_Northern_Hama_Latakia_November_22.png

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Re: Regional geopolitics

Russia Expanding Second Syrian Air Base Near IS-Held Areas

December 04, 2015

Russia is expanding an air base in Homs Province in western Syria to accommodate its fighter jets, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has said.

The monitoring group said on December 3 that the Russians were adding fortifications and developing runways at the Shayrat air base, about 40 kilometers southeast of Homs city, in a sign they intend to use it as their second air base in the country.

The work under way could signal Moscow's intention to step up air strikes in the country's central region where the Islamic State group is active, it said.

A U.S. official said the United States believes Russia had been moving equipment to the Shayrat base and some of the equipment is already operational.

Russia has been conducting air strikes in Syria since September 30, using the Syrian government's Basel al-Assad air base in the coastal province of Latakia. Su-24 bombers and helicopters take off daily from that base.

Based on reporting by Reuters and AP

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Russia, Iran, Iraq Quash Reported Bid To Cut Oil Output

By RFE/RL
December 04, 2015

Russia, Iran, and Iraq have quashed a plan reportedly being eyed by Saudi Arabia to lift sagging global oil prices through collective cuts in oil output.

The Energy Intelligence newsletter reported that Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), was ready to propose a cut of 1 million barrels a day in output at a meeting of the oil cartel on December 4, if non-OPEC countries like Russia joined in.

But Russia, Iran, and Iraq quickly rejected the idea in the run-up to the meeting. Russia has been pumping oil at post-Soviet record high levels this year and has shown no inclination to change that, while Iraq and Iran have plans to try to dramatically increase output in coming years.

"We do not expect our colleagues in OPEC to put pressure on us.... It is not acceptable, it's not fair," Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zangeneh told reporters in Vienna on December 3, noting that Iran hoped to start raising production next year after economic sanctions are lifted.

"It is our right and anyone cannot limit us to do it. We will not accept anything in this regard," he said.

Iran's production plans on their own would cancel out the 1 million barrel cut eyed by the Saudis. Zanganeh said Iran's goal was to first increase output by half a million barrels a day in early 2016, and eventually raise it by 1 million barrels, bringing Iran's daily total to around 3.8 million barrels a day.

Iraq is also not keen to cut production. Iraqi Oil Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi said his country was sticking to its current production plans after enjoying a significant rise in output this year.

Russian Oil Minister Aleksandr Novak told the RIA Novosti news agency that he saw no need for Moscow to decrease oil production from its 10.7 million-barrel level today. He added that he expected no change in OPEC's output policies at the meeting on December 4.

While the Saudis dismissed as "baseless" the Energy Intelligence report that the kingdom might seek a joint output cut, Saudi Arabia has previously said it would be willing to cut production if fellow OPEC members and non-OPEC countries joined in.

Iraq and Iran are longtime OPEC members. Though Russia has never joined the cartel, it has signaled more willingness to cooperate with the group this year.

The collapse of oil prices in the past 18 months has caused big economic strains in Russia and other oil-producing states while zapping their government revenues, which typically are heavily dependent on oil taxes.

Even wealthy Saudi Arabia is starting to feel pain from the drop in revenues, forcing it to consider potentially unpopular budgetary reforms such as introducing a value-added tax and cutting energy subsidies. Riyadh is also mindful of its need to finance an expensive war in Yemen.

The growing budgetary pressures lent credence to the Energy Intelligence report, which sent oil prices soaring in global trading on December 3.

With reporting by Reuters, AFP, and Energy Intelligence

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