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Regional geopolitics

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  • Re: Regional geopolitics

    Russia has expanded its military operations in Syria to include a second airbase as well as other posts, according to a U.S. official briefed on the latest intelligence from the region – even as President Obama expresses muted optimism that Russian President Vladimir Putin eventually will “shift” his strategy and work with the West.

    Moscow’s presence has grown to a total of four forward operating bases, including recently added bases in Hama and Tiyas. But the most concerning to the Pentagon is the second airbase in Shayrat which can support fixed-wing aircraft, greatly expanding Russia’s capability for airstrikes, which began on Sept. 30.






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    “The Russians are operating helicopters out of Shayrat airport, but they are making [preparations] to land fixed-wing aircraft,” another U.S. official confirmed to Fox News.

    Shayrat is located 25 miles outside of the Syrian city of Homs, an hour drive from neighboring Lebanon.

    Since September, Russia has based its warplanes and helicopters at Basel al-Assad airbase in Latakia, one of the last remaining Assad strongholds along the Mediterranean coast. While the Pentagon cannot confirm any Russian military jets have landed at Shayrat, there are reports Russia has landed aircraft in the past few hours.

    Russia’s two other forward operating bases are used to land its attack helicopters employed to defend the Assad regime against Syrian rebels.

    But when asked if the move to expand to a second airbase was defensive in nature in case Syrian rebels succeed in destroying the Latakia base, one of the U.S. officials pushed back.

    “This is an expansion, not a defensive move at all,” the official said. He said Syrian rebels were nowhere close to taking the Russian airbase in Latakia.

    The expansion comes as Russia spars with other world powers over its Syria approach.

    While the Obama administration is trying to persuade Moscow to focus its efforts on taking out Islamic State targets, Russia is known to be targeting U.S.-backed rebels tasked with weakening the Russia-backed Assad regime. Obama acknowledged this during a press conference Tuesday, while also voicing hope that Russia at some point will cooperate.

    While Russia’s military involvement has stoked tensions with the U.S., it has led to a direct confrontation with Turkey.

    One Russian Su-24 strike aircraft was shot down by Turkey last week – and on Monday, the U.S. State Department for the first time publicly backed Turkey’s claims that the Russian warplane had entered Turkish airspace.

    A Russian Mi-8 transport helicopter then sent to rescue the downed pilots was destroyed with a U.S.-made TOW anti-tank missiles by Syrian rebels. After those incidents, the Russians now have 31 warplanes and 15 helicopters – thought to be at Latakia.

    Obama, discussing Putin’s calculations, said Tuesday that the situation in Syria is “not the outcome he is looking for.”

    But critics will point to Russia’s expanding influence – not just in the Middle East but in eastern Ukraine, since Russia annexed Crimea and sent troops into eastern Ukraine to support a separatist movement in 2014. The Obama administration had vowed to isolate Russia over the incident.

    Obama said in October he does not want a proxy war in Russia, but the CIA’s arming of rebels in Syria and Russia’s airstrikes indicates the U.S. is already engaged in one.

    A senior defense official also said Turkey was “really pissed” when Russia bombed Turkmen rebels fighting Assad in Syria, ethnically tied to Turkey, and warned Russia on multiple occasions not to invade its airspace before shooting down the Russian Su-24 last week.

    Obama, speaking in Paris Tuesday, alluded to the different sides the United States and Russia have taken in Syria’s civil war.

    “So long as they are aligned with the regime, a lot of Russian resources will be targeted at opposition groups that will be part of an inclusive government that we support,” he said.



    Lucas Tomlinson is the Pentagon and State Department producer for Fox News Channel. You can follow him on Twitter: @LucasFoxNews
    Hayastan or Bust.

    Comment


    • Re: Regional geopolitics

      The West so desperately is trying to shift Russia’s focus from Syria towards Eastern turkey. Reason why Patriot system where removed from the region with a green light of downing the Russian plane. For over two years they tried to make believe they were fighting ISIS till Russia stepped in. It sure messed up their plans on keeping Iran out of the region to please Israel’s dominance in the region by keeping it surrounded with paralyzed backward entities. I find it peculiar how all of a sudden Israel’s rhetoric with chest banging disappeared. As predicted the azeris followed suit and are patiently waiting for an outcome of the conflicts in the region, since they lost their two most valuable supporter’s backings (turkey and Israel). For now, all equations are working favorably for Armenia’s interest and security. It seams that Russia’s influence will be partially extended even into Lebanon. Israel’s true nightmare. I am sure by now the Neocons are readjusting their plans on influencing public opinions in the US and brainwashing all of their “think tank” Institutes with some new plans. Time will tell, soon.

      Comment


      • Re: Regional geopolitics

        Originally posted by Azad View Post
        The West so desperately is trying to shift Russia’s focus from Syria towards Eastern turkey. Reason why Patriot system where removed from the region with a green light of downing the Russian plane. For over two years they tried to make believe they were fighting ISIS till Russia stepped in. It sure messed up their plans on keeping Iran out of the region to please Israel’s dominance in the region by keeping it surrounded with paralyzed backward entities. I find it peculiar how all of a sudden Israel’s rhetoric with chest banging disappeared. As predicted the azeris followed suit and are patiently waiting for an outcome of the conflicts in the region, since they lost their two most valuable supporter’s backings (turkey and Israel). For now, all equations are working favorably for Armenia’s interest and security. It seams that Russia’s influence will be partially extended even into Lebanon. Israel’s true nightmare. I am sure by now the Neocons are readjusting their plans on influencing public opinions in the US and brainwashing all of their “think tank” Institutes with some new plans. Time will tell, soon.
        --- west so desperately ---
        Gotta agree with you on this clear analysis.
        PS ... Thanks for computer tip.

        Comment


        • Re: Regional geopolitics

          Originally posted by Artashes View Post
          --- west so desperately ---
          Gotta agree with you on this clear analysis.
          It did not take too long for their games to shift. Looks like they are targeting on preventing Russian passage from the Bosporus strait as a retaliation.
          Notice how all the Neocon network is indirectly giving a signal to turkey. They are talking on both sides of their mouth.
          Notice the players.




          By Natasha Bertrand a mouth pice for Boris Silberman and some “think tank” institution
          Russia has reportedly equipped its warplanes flying in Syria with air-to-air missiles for self-defense for the first time, Reuters reported on Monday, citing Russian news agencies. The m...


          Notice “Quoted by Natasha Bertrand” fallowed by Boris Zilberman


          Aaron Stein with Atlantic Council
          List goes on with their games.

          Bottom line, they are ready to sacrifice turkey to shift the conflict away from Israel’s interest.
          Last edited by Azad; 12-01-2015, 03:46 PM.

          Comment


          • Re: Regional geopolitics



            1 / Դեկտեմբեր / 2015
            Արա Աբրահամյանը պիտի իմանա՝ սա հայերի համար ոչինչ չարժեցող բանաձև է. Լևոն Շիրինյան (audio)

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            • Re: Regional geopolitics

              FIGAROVOX/TRIBUNE - Après l'accord conclu entre la Turquie et l'UE dimanche 29 novembre, Hadrien Desuin estime que ce n'est plus l'Europe qui impose ses critères d'adhésion mais la Turquie qui s'impose à l'Europe.

              Comment la Turquie joue au poker menteur avec l'Union européenne


              Par Hadrien Desuin Publié le 01/12/2015


              FIGAROVOX/TRIBUNE - Après l'accord conclu entre la Turquie et l'UE dimanche 29 novembre, Hadrien Desuin estime que ce n'est plus l'Europe qui impose ses critères d'adhésion mais la Turquie qui s'impose à l'Europe.


              Ancien élève de l'École spéciale militaire de St-Cyr puis de l'École des officiers de la Gendarmerie nationale, Hadrien Desuin est titulaire d'un master II en relations internationales et stratégie sur la question des Chrétiens d'Orient, de leurs diasporas et la géopolitique de l'Égypte, réalisé au Centre d'Études et de Documentation Économique Juridique et social (CNRS/MAE) au Caire en 2005. Il a dirigé le site Les Conversations françaises de 2010 à 2012. Aujourd'hui il collabore à Causeur et Conflits où il suit l'actualité de la diplomatie française dans le monde.
              Donald Tusk et Ahmet Davutoglu se sont mutuellement félicités dimanche 29 novembre après l'annonce d'un accord turco-européen. En échange de quelques 3 milliards d'euros et de la relance des négociations d'adhésion à l'Union, la Turquie s'engage à retenir les migrants qui transitent à travers le pays.


              Ce marchandage en bonne et due forme fait des réfugiés et des migrants une bien étrange monnaie d'échange diplomatique. Une transaction migratoire dont les Turcs sortent une nouvelle fois grand vainqueur. Pour négocier, l'Europe n'a plus d'autre moyen que de s'élargir, de se dissoudre dans un espace toujours plus grand. Et partant, l'opinion publique s'éloigne scrutin après scrutin de ses institutions.
              Longtemps, on a loué et admiré le processus original de la construction européenne. Sublime dans la crise, l'Europe se relève toujours dans la nuit des négociations bruxelloises par des accords à l'arraché. L'Union européenne avance, elle s'élargit, elle applique sa politique des petits pas. Pourtant de dossiers en dossiers, elle se laisse glisser au gré des accords techniques. Elle progresse vers «une union toujours plus étroite» sans jamais parvenir à définir l'essentiel: le projet politique et ses limites géographiques de cette union. Bref elle avance vers le vide, vers l'Autre, son horizon indépassable. Dépouillée de tout artifice identitaire, incapable de surveiller ses propres frontières, Bruxelles fait aujourd'hui office de grand tribunal de commerce continental, arbitre d'un vaste espace d'échange commercial ouvert à tous les vents. Ses valeurs communes que l'on croyait à jamais liées aux Lumières se réduisent en fin de compte à une litanie de règlements et de directives négociables. C'est sur ce marché que la Turquie compte bien prospérer. Le géant économique européen grossit, il absorbe de plus en plus de pays membres et de migrants économiques mais le projet politique est moribond. L'Europe du XXIème siècle s'atrophie autant qu'elle s'élargit. La grosse machine bruxelloise s'est emballée. Le rêve de Schuman est devenu cauchemar.


              La Turquie, elle, se porte à merveille. Tout à son projet de restauration califale, le président islamiste Erdogan poursuit son œuvre grandiose. Purge contre les derniers médias assez audacieux pour le contredire, relance de l'épuration contre les partis kurdes, agression de l'aviation russe en Syrie, négation du génocide arménien, Erdogan peut faire place nette parce que l'Europe se tait. Mieux, elle consent.
              Du haut de son plateau anatolien, la Turquie est indispensable pour régler le conflit syrien. Les marées migratoires qui se déversent sur les îles grecques la rendent incontournable pour régler la crise des réfugiés. Au milieu du chaos, la Turquie fait de sa position un levier de négociation, un pivot. Et l'Allemagne, qui dans un élan de générosité inconsidéré avait ouvert grandes ses frontières ou plutôt celles de l'Europe pour accueillir les migrants de toute l'Asie centrale, a besoin d'elle pour stopper le torrent. Elle a placé toute l'Europe dans une situation de dépendance stratégique inédite.
              Après avoir fermé les yeux sur ses principes, l'Europe a troqué quelques migrants contre les libertés turques. Le temps où l'Europe dictait ses leçons de morale à Ankara est bien loin. Désormais c'est Ankara qui dicte le montant de son soutien, le prix de ses visas et le calendrier de son adhésion. Ce n'est plus l'Europe qui impose ses critères d'adhésion mais la Turquie qui s'impose à l'Europe.

              Comment


              • Re: Regional geopolitics

                This character is a converted Christian from Judaism. His analysis are spot on.

                Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

                Comment


                • Re: Regional geopolitics

                  2 / Դեկտեմբեր / 2015
                  6 թուրքական կործանիչներ խախտել են Հունաստանի օդային տարածքը
                  lratvakan radio

                  6 թուրքական F-16 կործանիչներ խախտել են Հունաստանի օդային տարածքը: Այդ մասին հայտնել են Հունաստանի Գլխավոր շտաբից:
                  «Թուրքական F-16 կործանիչների խումբը տեղական ժամանակով 15:01-ին հատել է Հունաստանի օդային տարածքը՝ Լեսբոս և Խիոս կղզիների միջև ընկած հատվածում՝ առանց թռիչքային պլանի տրամադրման», - նշվում է հաղորդագրության մեջ:
                  Ըստ հույն զինվորականների տվյալների՝ կործանիչները երկրի օդային տարածքում գտնվել են մոտ 30 րոպե, ինչից հետո լքել են այն:

                  Comment


                  • Re: Regional geopolitics

                    Russia S-400 Syria missile deployment sends robust signal
                    By Jonathan Marcus
                    BBC Defence correspondent



                    The shooting down of a Russian Su-24 warplane by Turkish fighters has prompted Moscow to reinforce its contingent in Syria.
                    Russian warplanes have now been seen carrying air-to-air missiles and a Russian warship - the Moskva - was moved closer to the Syrian coast, to enable its air defence missiles to provide additional cover over the Russian air base near Latakia.
                    But the most significant reinforcement has been the deployment of a sophisticated S-400 air defence system. Its large tubular launchers and associated radar and command vehicles are now in position at the Russian base.
                    The S-400 is one of Russia's most modern air defence systems with an extraordinary reach. From the airbase near Latakia the S-400's surface-to-air missiles could strike targets in an arc that takes in much of Israel; the eastern Mediterranean (including Cyprus where British jets are based); and northwards to cover a large part of Turkey beyond the Syrian border.
                    Protecting 'air assets'
                    Russia's powerful radars - that reach even further than its missiles - enable it to have a detailed picture of the wider "aerial landscape".
                    For example, they can see developing coalition air operations and can keep a close track on what the Israeli Air Force is doing.


                    Manufacturer: Almaz-Antey arms firm; Deployment: Hmeimim airbase near Latakia - entered service in Russia in 2007; Range: 400km (248 miles); Speed: up to 4.8km (3 miles) per second; Max target height: 30km - can track hundreds of targets simultaneously; Types of target: aircraft, cruise missiles, medium-range missiles, drones, other airborne surveillance systems. (Sources: RIA Novosti, Russian 1TV.ru)
                    Diagram of how S-400 missile system works
                    Long-range surveillance radar tracks objects and relays information to command vehicle, which assesses potential targets
                    Target is identified and command vehicle orders missile launch
                    Launch data is sent to the best placed launch vehicle and it releases surface-to-air missiles
                    Engagement radar helps guide missiles towards target
                    There is of course no suggestion that Russia intends to disrupt coalition air operations. Moscow is making a point by deploying the S-400. It sends a robust signal, not just to Turkey, but to public opinion at home that Russia intends to protect its air assets in Syria by whatever means necessary.
                    However it is very hard to imagine the S-400 actually engaging a Western warplane. Given the number of aircraft operating over Syria it would be difficult, for example, to specifically pick out a Turkish jet. But the presence of the missile system inevitably complicates coalition planning.


                    Nato and US spokesmen have said little about the S-400, though one senior Nato diplomat acknowledged that the deployment of this and other sophisticated systems into "one operating area over Syria where many different nations are flying" makes the situation even more "complex".
                    Since the S-400's deployment the number of coalition strikes in Syria appears to have gone down, with more of them carried out by drones. However it is hard to say if this reflects concern about the new threat or simply a response to the ebb and flow of the campaign.
                    When I asked the Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg about the potential threat from the S-400, he was short on specifics, but saw its deployment in Syria and its potential coverage of a slice of Turkish air-space as part of a wider Russian strategy.


                    He said that from the Baltic, through Ukraine and Crimea, to the eastern Mediterranean, Moscow was deploying what he described as sophisticated "anti-access capabilities"; these presumably intended to try to constrain Nato deployments in the event of any crisis.
                    The deployment of the S-400 underscores the continuing need for contacts between the US-led coalition and the Russians.
                    Israel is stepping up its military-to-military discussions with Moscow.
                    At the weekend Israeli Defence Minister Moshe Yaalon noted that a Russian warplane had penetrated Israeli air space briefly but it was not shot down since it was not perceived as a threat.
                    While Nato in public insists that it will do everything needed to defend Turkey's sovereignty, there are many here in Brussels who in private may wish that the Turks had been a little less robust.

                    Comment


                    • Re: Regional geopolitics

                      Iranian General Soleimani Supervised Operation to Save Russian Su-24 Pilot
                      © AFP 2015/ RIA NOVOSTI /
                      ALEXEY NIKOLSKY
                      28.11.2015


                      Read more: http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20...#ixzz3t9Etr7Fs


                      The pilot of the downed Russian Su-24 bomber was saved in a joint rescue operation supervised by the commander of Iran's elite Quds Force of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution, Major General Qasem Soleimani.

                      Iranian journalist and political analyst Emad Abshenas talked to a friend of his, a Syrian officer, who is currently in Latakia, and has all the details on the ground team that extracted Konstantin Murahtin.

                      Soleimani, according to the expert, assembled a rescue team made up of 18 Syrian special operation forces and six Hezbollah fighters with firsthand knowledge of the terrain. They were tasked with saving the pilot, while Russian forces provided air and intelligence support.

                      As soon as they reached the front line, Russian aircraft launched airstrikes against rebels forcing them to flee.

                      The team could then advance further into enemy territory.

                      The joint team was receiving extremely detailed intelligence information on everything surrounding them, even the movement of ants located hundreds of meters away, Emad Abshenas noted, citing the Syrian officer.

                      In addition to saving Konstantin Murahtin, they also eliminated all terrorists in the area.

                      The timing of the operation was perfect but luck played a certain part in its success.

                      The Syrian officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity, explained that Turkey and the Turkmen could not agree on what to do with the pilot. The former wanted to take him as prisoner and later use him as a bargaining chip in talks with Russia. The rebels insisted that he should be treated like the Jordanian pilot captured by ISIL in late 2014 and burned to death several days later.

                      This bickering gave the team enough time to save the Russian pilot.

                      All 24 fighters, who took part in the operation, safely reached the base.

                      The Kremlin, according to the analyst, received all the latest updates on the rescue operation as the events unfolded. Russian President Vladimir Putin is said to have been closely following the action via satellite transmission.

                      On Tuesday, a Turkish F-16 shot down the Su-24, claiming that the aircraft had violated its airspace. Russian officials and the Su-24 pilot, who survived the crash, insist that the plane did not cross into Turkey. The crew, according to the pilot, did not receive any warning prior to the attack.

                      The Su-24 downing as well as the missile attack on Russian journalists in Latakia appear to confirm what many have assumed – moderate opposition groups are simply nonexistent in Syria, Emad Abshenas noted.


                      Read more: http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20...#ixzz3t9FYjI8x

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