Regional geopolitics

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Նոր իրավիճակ Հայաստանի ու Արցախի սահմանին

ՀԱՅԿԱԶՆ ՂԱՀՐԻՅԱՆ, Գլխավոր խմբագիր
Մեկնաբանություն - 12 Դեկտեմբերի 2015,


Դեկտեմբերի 11-ին հակառակորդի դիպուկահարի կրակոցից մարտական հենակետում զոհվել է ՊԲ զինծառայող, 1995թ. ծնված Կարեն Գրիգորյանը: Դեկտեմբերին սա արդեն մարտական պայմաններում հայկական զինուժի 4-րդ կորուստն է: Իրավիճակը սահմանին մնում է լարված, ամեն օր տեղեկություն է տարածվում հակառակորդի զենիթա-հրթիռային ինտենսիվ հրետակոծության մասին:

Այս ամիս հանդիպելու են Սերժ Սարգսյանն ու Իլհամ Ալիեւը, եւ հայ փորձագետների կարծիքով, հանդիպումից առաջ Ալիեւը մտադիր է ամրացնել իր դիրքերը, հանդես գալ ուժի եւ շանտաժի դիրքերից:

Սա նոր երեւույթ չէ, թե երկկողմ, թե այլ ձեւաչափերով հանդիպումներից առաջ Ադրբեջանը դիմում է սրացման: Թեեւ, մյուս կողմից, պետք է նշել, որ այս տարվա սկզբից, ինչ Հայաստանն անդամակցել է ԵՏՄ-ին, Ադրբեջանը գրեթե չի դադարեցրել կրակը Հայաստանի ու Արցախի սահմաններին: Ամբողջ տարվա ընթացքում փաստացի պատերազմ է սահմաններին, այս կամ այն ձեւերով ու ինտենսիվությամբ:

Հայկական զինուժի խնդիրը ներկայում մեծացել է, առավել եւս, որ վերջին շրջանում թե Մինսկի խմբի համանախագահները, թե այլ շահագրգիռ կառույցներ հայկական կողմին տվել են կայունությունն ու անվտանգությունը պահպանելու «քարտ-բլանշ»:

Այս խնդիրը հրատապ է հատկապես ներկայում, այն պայմաններում, երբ Ադրբեջանը հայտնվել է բավական աննպաստ իրավիճակում թե տնտեսապես, թե ռազմա-քաղաքական առումով: Այս իրավիճակն Ադրբեջանին ստիպում է դիմել ծայրահեղ քայլերի՝ իր խնդիրների վրա միջազգային ուշադրություն գրավելու նպատակով:

Բանն այն է, որ ներկայիս աշխարհքաղաքական զարգացումների տրամաբանությունը կտրուկ իջեցրել են Ադրբեջանի արժեքը որպես էներգետիկ ու տրանզիտային երկիր, բացի այդ՝ նրա վրա ազդում է Թուրքիայի ներկայիս քաղաքականությունն ու դրա հանդեպ Արեւմուտքի ու Ռուսաստանի վերաբերմունքը:

Իրավիճակը բարդացնում է նաեւ այն հանգամանքը, որ Հայաստանն ինչ որ առումով «ներքաշվել» է ռուս-թուրքական ներկայիս լարվածության մեջ, նկատի առնելով ռուսական ռազմա-քաղաքական բլոկներին Հայաստանի մասնակցությունը: Հայաստանը փաստացի հայտնվել է մի իրավիճակում, երբ սահմանի «տեղային» բախումներն արդեն հայտնվում են այլ համատեքստում:

Ադրբեջանին հասցված աննախադեպ հարվածը կարող է խախտել այս տրամաբանությունը, անցյալ տարվա օգոստոսի իրադարձությունների օրինակով, եւ Հայաստանը դուրս բերել այս աննպաստ դասավորությունից: Հայկական բանակի պատասխան գործողություններն ունենալու են այս տրամաբանությունը, ինչը բարձրացնելու է Հայաստանի սուբյեկտության աստիճանը:

Իրավիճակը սահմանին ակնհայտ փոխվել է, եւ թեեւ արտաքուստ ընթանում է «սովորական» դիմակայություն, խորքում այն կրում է աշխարհքաղաքական նոր զարգացումների տրամաբանությունը: Հայկական բանակի գործողությունն աննախադեպ է լինելու հենց այս տրամաբանությունը հաշվի առնելով:

Հայ-ադրբեջանական սահմանին այսօր նոր իրավիճակ է: Այն այլեւս «տեղային» դիմակայության սահման չէ, դա քաղաքակիրթ աշխարհի ու բարբարոսության սահմանն է, եւ հայկական բանակը կանգնած է քաղաքակրթության պաշտպանության դիրքերում: Դա լուրջ պատասխանատվություն է՝ Հայաստանի մասնակցությունը գլոբալ անվտանգության ապահովմանը:

- See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/arm/0/com....VC3K0jvD.dpuf

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Saudi and Egyptian marines capture Iran-held island at Red Sea chokepoint
11 dec 2015
Debka


In a pivotal breakthrough in the Yemen civil war, Thursday, Dec. 11 the naval forces of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAR took by storm from Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels the Greater Hanish island, which is part of the strategic archipelago commanding the Strait of Bab al Mandeb. This is reported exclusively byDEBKAfile’s Middle East sources.
This highly strategic strait links the Indian Ocean with the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea – i.e. Africa and Asia – and is the world’s fourth busiest chokepoint for international oil traffic.
Captured by Yemeni rebels last May, the island was converted by Iranian officers into an armed base and one of Tehran’s largest depots for the supply of arms to its forces and proxies in the region. A fleet of small boats and fishing vessels kept the Yemeni Houthis amply armed for fending off the Saudi-led Arab coalition fighting to restore the exiled Yemeni government.
The Hanish island base also provided Iran with a commanding position for spreading its influence in Ethiopia and Eritrea on the eastern African seaboard.
Taking the island was a major breakthrough for the coalition, after long months of combat that was crowned by their capture of the southern Yemeni seaport of Aden in the past three months. With the occupation of Greater Hanish, Saudi-led forces are now in position not just to cut off Iran’s weapons supplies to the Yemeni rebels, but also to break its grip on the vital strait that connects the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal.
Iran maintained on Greater Hanish Island advanced radar and electronic tracking stations for keeping an eye on military movements on the southern Saudi border with northern Yemen. They could also shadow oil tanker and other shipping passing through the Red Sea, and stake out Israel’s south- and east-bound sea traffic as it passed through the Gulf of Aqaba.
DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources reveal that Saudi Arabia and Egypt finally decided that the seizure of the strategic island could not be delayed when last month, Iran won a permit to establish an air and sea base in Djibouti, the Horn of Africa nation opposite the Gulf of Aden’s entrance to the Red Sea.
Djibouti derives much of its revenue from renting out tracts of land to foreign nations seeking bases of operation in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea. American and French bases are situated no more than 214 km from Greater Hanish Island.
Riyadh, Cairo and the UAE agreed that they could not afford to let Iranian air and naval forces gain control of the Bab El-Mandeb Strait from its twin footholds on the island and in Djibouti.
They were not the only interested parties. It may be taken for granted that their operation to take over Greater Hanish was quietly assisted by Western and Middle East interests that had been watching Iran’s takeover of these vital ocean pathways with grave concern.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

100,000 Civilians under ISIS Siege in Eastern Syria
BY CHRIS TOMSON
DECEMBER 13, 2015

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/100-000-civilians-under-isis-siege-in-deir-ez-zor/

In eastern Syria, along the Euphrates River, lies the ancient city of Deir Ez-Zor. Before the Syrian crisis began in 2011, the city was known for its pluralism as Sunnis and Orthodox Christians lived peacefully side by side. However, with a regional caliphate proclaimed, many militants loyal to the Islamic State have set their eyes on the city.

Deir Ez-Zor is roughly split 50/50 between the Syrian government and the hostile Islamic State. However, with ISIS’ capture of Palmyra earlier this year, government troops have come under increasing pressure as their last supply line to the city has been cut. This has left the army and local inhabitants of the city completely dependent on supplies being flown in by helicopter.



In an attempt to halt the flow of supplies, ISIS fighters have launched daily attacks on Deir Ez-Zor Airbase for months; however, they have been unsuccessful in their efforts so far. This is largely explained by a major deployment of the elite defensive soldiers of the 104th Airborne Brigade of the Republican Guard along with their fearsome Brigadier General, Issam Zahreddine.

Despite a permanent blockade, a bag of potatoes in Deir Ez-Zor costs approximately 600 Syrian Pounds which converts to about 3 dollars. In comparison, an al-Masdar source in Lattakia is able to buy his potatoes for just 350 Syrian Pounds. Last month, an al-Mayadeen report revealed that civilians could be evacuated from the city for 80 dollars. Sadly, most residents remain poor or jobless due to the ongoing conflict.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

El-Sisi in Athens to press forward on big Egyptian-Greek-Israeli gas deal
Debka

Egyptian President Abdel Fatteh El-Sisi has arrived in Athens for three days of talks with Greek Prime Minister Alex Tsipras on a plan for establishing the first ever Mediterranean consortium for the joint exploitation of Israeli, Egyptian and Cypriot off-shore gas wells. DEBKAfile’s Middle East sources disclose in an exclusive report.

Tuesday, Dec. 8, when Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu defended his government's handling of Israel’s offshore gas bonanza in a briefing to the Knesset Economy Committee, he faced a barrage of opposition criticism, much of which focused on unfounded claims that Egypt had dropped out of a deal for the purchase of Israeli gas.

The consortium, in advanced negotiation between the Egyptian president, Greek Prime Minister Alexs Tsipras and Binyamin Netanyahu, is designed for two goals. which are to satisfy the gas requirements of Greece, Cyprus, Israel, Jordan, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority, and to export the remainder to Europe.

The three parties are studying three alternative plans:
1. Transfer the Mediterranean gas to Greece and then pipeline it to Europe: Greek Prime Minister Tsipras raised this option with Netanyahu during his unexpected visit to Jerusalem on Nov. 26. He proposed linking the Israeli gas fields, especially the largest Leviathan well, with the Cypriot offshore Aphrodite gas field and Egypt’s Zohr Mediterranean field, and so make it possible to transfer the gas to Greece and from there to Europe.
Tsipras maintained that the European Union, of which Greece is a member, would consider taking part in the construction of the new pipeline networks together with the gas terminals necessary for exporting it.
2. Transfer the gas of all three countries via Turkey.
3. Build a pipeline from the Israeli oil port city of Ashkelon to Egypt. Western Egypt has two giant gas-processing facilities on its Mediterranean coast, one owned by British Gas and the other by Spain’s Union Fenosa Gas. They could transform the gas to LNG for shipping by tanker to Europe.
In his briefing to the Knesset committee, Netanyahu maintained, “The bottom line is that I see the supply of gas as the basis for protecting (Israel’s) national security, and we need to be strong in order to gain alliances and make peace.”

In Athens, the Egyptian President echoed those sentiments when he said: "More cooperation is needed in these difficult times and in this sensitive area. Such cooperation could be in the exploitation of mineral resources, it could be an economic cooperation and even a military cooperation,” he said.

In other words, joint exploitation of the Mediterranean gas fields will enable the countries of the region to confront the security challenges that they face, as well as facilitate economic cooperation and joint military efforts to protect the gas fields and pipelines.

DEBKAfile’s sources report that El-Sisi, Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades and the Israeli and Greek prime ministers are planning a summit meeting in the coming days to bring forward and seal a deal for the economic consolidation of the Egyptian, Israeli and Cypriot gas fields and the means for exporting the gas.

Despite the arguments put forward against the government’s handling of the gas issue by Knesset members, including opposition leader Yitzhak Herzog and loudest opponent of the gas deal, his fellow party member Shelly Yachimovich, the key facts are indisputable.

Their party, the Zionist Union, constantly advocates a quest for peace based on regional alliances. Yet when an important regional alliance becomes feasible, on the basis of cooperation in the exploitation of Mediterranean gas, its leaders try and shout it down. They are even proposing to endlessly delay the entire project by petitions to Israel’s Supreme Court. This step would make one of Israel’s leading political parties guilty of frustrating one of the most important and productive political and security-related developments Israel has attained in recent years.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

ooooo

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Note latest thermobaric mlrs delivered to baku, buratino, for first time, in my knowledge, put in use in Latakia province (much similar to our ):
(I know it was used in Ukranya and Chetcnya, but I think there it was open field, or in built areas)
It was also used in Irak and Hama of Syria, but yet again, on open terrain.

First Hama I think:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TOS-1

NB: first report of MI-35 also sighted in Syria, for first time today.

[Eddo211]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Now this thing will put up a show.......hoooweee

[londontsi]

Re: Regional geopolitics

The Drug Fueling Conflict In Syria

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

The Drug Fueling Conflict In Syria

Very interesting. Thank you.
some remarks:
- I still did not understand from this, where the synthesis of the amphetamine+cafeine is done? Processing the pills is rudimentary technology, nothing special. But the row material, the emphetamine is certainly not a natural product (like geroin or morphine, from the flower grown in Afkanistan or Turkey).
It must needs some kind of syntesis, like petrochemistry. Where is it done?
In Jordan ?? (since the border guard is saying they used to stop trade from Jordan), in Homs?? Or in Beirut??
My guess is in a much more industrialised country....

- Everybody knows, that in Lebanon, electricity is an endemic problem, with less than 12/24... and even the poorest barber has a small generator to produce his own electricity.... so these guys, who brass millions of dollars... are dependant from state electricity... ??

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Why did Russia send T-90A, and not T-72B3 to Syria?

http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/12/why-did-russia-send-t-90a-and-not-t.html

Translated by Ollie Richardson for Fort Russ
11th December, 2015

Journal of Mordovia




The end of 2015 was marked by the fact that the most modern of the armaments of the Russian army, the T-90A tank, was used for the first time in a war. Despite the fact that the terrorists have already posted a cheaply made Hollywood style video with the "destruction" of such a tank to Social Networks, it is too early for serious talk about the performance of the T-90A in a state of war.

However, military experts have already noted the fact that the T-90A went to war, and not the budget modernized T-72B3 that continues to support the army ever since the establishment of the helm of the Military Department of the former leadership of the Ministry of Defence. It is not surprising: the T-90A has a more powerful description of the frontal zones. Mounted on the tank is a complex optical-electronic suppression system, which is able to neutralize existing militant anti-tank missile systems. The T-72B3 does not have these "curtains". The mechanisms of protection of the T-72B3 equate to the level of, at best, the second half of the 80's.

The tank crews who participated in the first Chechen war insistently demanded that the tanks were equipped with closed machine-gun installations, such as is present on the T-90. But officials in cosy offices did not understand the risk to the tank commander if they were to climb out of the hatch, under the crossfire of bullets and shrapnel, and open fire from the mounted heavy machine gun.




The "Ainet" system of remote detonation is installed on the T-90A. "Journal of Mordovia" has already spoken about the principle of its operation: the gunner of the tank, with a laser sighted range-finder, performs measurements of the target's range (the purpose may be to calculate positions of ATGM, infantry in trenches, infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, helicopters hovering, etc.) Before the shot is fired, information on the target's range enters the "Ainet" fuse system, and when the projectile is in the right place, it is detonated in the air.

If one were to compare the efficacy of conventional high-explosive projectiles, "Ainet" increases it by three times. The firing range is 4 km. Beside the use of conventional high explosive shells is the use of ammunition with ready-striking elements. This increases the tank's efficiency even more.





Unfortunately, the "Ainet" system is also in use on the T-72B3. As a result, a paradoxical picture is created: the troops are using a tank that is significantly inferior to the majority of the characteristics of not only the latest Korean and Chinese tanks, but even the Polish "Leopard 2A5". The T-90 in its latest version has a number of modified systems (including air conditioning) that are now exported, including to our neighbours.

As for the T-90A in Syria, we previously mentioned that the current war machines there urgently needed additional measures to protect the side and the rear, which as a result, would increase the efficiency of such tanks even more. Let's not wait for unnecessary losses.