Regional geopolitics

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Ինչու է Ռուսաստանը որոշել «փրկել» Էրդողանին
lragir.am
ՆԱԻՐԱ ՀԱՅՐՈՒՄՅԱՆ, Մեկնաբան
Քաղաքականություն - 27 Հոկտեմբերի 2016,


Թուրքիայի խորհրդարանում հուլիսյան հեղաշրջման փորձի վերաբերյալ լսումներում Ռուսաստանի նախագահի հատուկ ներկայացուցիչ Ալեքսանդր Դուգինը հայտարարել է, որ Թուրքիայում վխտում են ԿՀՎ գործակալները: Նա ասել է, որ ԱՄՆ-ն է ցանկացել Թուրքիայում հեղաշրջում անել, որովհետեւ Էրդողանը չի համաձայնվել Մերձավոր Արեւելքի վերաբերյալ ԱՄՆ առաջարկներին:
Ասում են, որ հուլիսին Դուգինն անձամբ է Էրդողանին զգուշացրել նախապատրաստվող հեղաշրջման մասին, դրա փորձից առաջ նա եղել է Թուրքիայում: Ինչու՞ է Ռուսաստանը որոշել «փրկել» Էրդողանին, որը խփել է ռուսական ինքնաթիռը: Դուգինն ասում է, որ եթե Մերձավոր Արեւելքում ամեն ինչ արվի ԱՄՆ նախագծով, ապա վատ կլինի ոչ միայն Թուրքիայի, այլեւ Ռուսաստանի համար:
Թուրքիան աստիճանաբար դառնում է արեւմտյան աշխարհի «թիվ մեկ թշնամին»: Ռուսաստանը փորձում է «կրակն իր վրա վերցնել» եւ դառնալ «գլխավոր թշնամին»՝ ճանապարհ բացելով Թուրքիայի համար, սակայն Վաշինգտոնում հասկանում են, որ Մերձավոր Արեւելքում պայքարելու են ոչ թե Ռուսաստանի կամ Իրանի, այլ հենց Թուրքիայի դեմ:
Հարցն այն է, թե արդյոք ԱՄՆ-ն կպատերազմի կամ, ինչպես ասում է Դուգինը, կփորձի իր ձեւով բաժանել Մերձավոր Արեւելքը:
ԱՄՆ-ն Մերձավոր Արեւելքի վերաբաժանման նախագիծ վաղուց ունի: Այն ներկայացվել է դեռ Վուդրո Վիլսոնի ժամանակ: Հին ծրագրերում Հայաստանին ու Քուրդիստանին մեծ տեղ է հատկացված: Նոր ծրագրերում նրանց նույնպես դեր է հատկացված, հատկապես հիմա, երբ ԱՄՆ-ն հայտարարել է Սիրիայում եւ Իրաքում Իսլամական պետության գլխավոր հենակետերի դեմ գործողության մոտալուտ ավարտի մասին:
Լրատվամիջոցները գրում են Մերձավոր Արեւելքի մոտալուտ վերաբաժանման եւ Թուրքիայի աճող հավակնությունների մասին: Անցյալ շաբաթ Էրդողանն անվտանգության խորհրդի նիստ է հրավիրել եւ խոսել նախկին օսմանյան տարածքների, այդ թվում՝ Կիպրոսի, Պաղեստինի եւ Աջարիայի նկատմամբ հավակնությունների մասին: Նա ասել է, որ 100 տարի առաջ Թուրքիային նեղացրել են, սակայն այժմ ոչ ոք չի կարողանա խանգարել հողերը վերականգնելու գործում:
Սա հնչում է որպես պատերազմի հայտարարում, եւ ԱՄՆ-ն այդպես էլ ընկալել է: Ամերիկյան լրատվամիջոցները պատահականություն չեն համարում, որ այդ հավակնությունները հնչում են ԱՄՆ նախագահի ընտրությունների ժամանակ:
Երբ Թուրքիան «արթնանում է», Ռուսաստանն անմիջապես հագնում է «ասիստենտի» խալաթը: Մոսկվան փորձում է միջամտել ԱՄՆ նախագահի ընտրություններին, որ թուլացնի ամերիկյան քաղաքականությունը: Ձեռքի հետ Ռուսաստանն աջակցում է Մերձավոր Արեւելքում Թուրքիայի հավակնություններին, միայն թե այն չբաժանվի ամերիկյան ծրագրով:
Հայաստանը Մեծ Մերձավոր Արեւելքի տարածաշրջանում է եւ կարեւոր դեր ունի ապագա գործընթացներում: Հայաստանը գլխավոր դերը մասամբ կատարել է՝ հաղթել է ղարաբաղյան պատերազմում՝ ապահովելով «պաշտպանական նոր գիծ»: Այդ գիծը չի համապատասխանում ռուսական եւ թուրքական պատկերացումներին: Սակայն դրանով Հայաստանի դերը դժվար թե սահմանափակվի:
Սիրիայում եւ Մերձավոր Արեւելքում Թուրքիան սպառնալիք է դառնում, իսկ Հայաստանի դաշնակից Ռուսաստանն անթաքույց աջակցում է Թուրքիայի հավակնություններին՝ փորձելով հակադրել դրանք ամերիկյան շահերին: Թուրքիան ու Ռուսաստանը, թերեւս, ցանկանում են պահպանել Կարսի եւ Մոսկվայի պայմանագրերի երկարաձգման իրավունքը: Նրանք գիտեն, որ ամերիկյան ծրագրերը չեն ենթադրում այդ պայմանագրերը:

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

WASHINGTON—The Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) on Wednesday issued the following statement regarding the 2016 U.S. Presidential elections:
“Every four years, as part of a comprehensive election strategy that includes Congressional report cards, candidate questionnaires, selected endorsements, voter registration and get-out-the-vote efforts, the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) carefully studies the past records and current campaign positions of the Presidential candidates regarding issues of special concern to the Armenian American community.
Following consultations with both leading campaigns regarding their respective policy priorities on Armenian American issues, and after reviewing the major party candidates’ track records and positions, the ANCA has concluded that neither the Hillary Clinton-Tim Kaine nor the Donald Trump-Mike Pence ticket earned the organization’s endorsement.
Detailed information on the records of the Republican and Democratic Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidates can be found on the ANCA website: anca.org/anca-presidential-candidate-overview-2016
The ANCA encourages Armenian American voters to vote and actively engage in all other aspects of the electoral process, most prominently by actively supporting our endorsed candidates at the federal, state, and local levels. For more information on the ANCA’s 2016 Congressional Endorsements and Grades – please visit: anca.org/press-release/anca-announces-2016-congressional-grades-endorsements”

http://asbarez.com/156310/anca-withholds-2016-presidential-endorsement/

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

World News | Thu Oct 27, 2016 | 12:25pm EDT
Syrian army says it takes town near Hama






Syria's army regained the town of Soran, north of Hama, from rebels on Thursday, a Syrian military source and a war monitor said, part of a push back against insurgent gains in the area over recent weeks.
"Units from our armed forces in cooperation with the people's defense forces regained control over the municipality of Soran and the farms surrounding it," the source said.
Militia forces from both Syria and other countries in the region have fought alongside the Syrian army in its fight against rebels seeking to oust President Bashar al-Assad, a war that is in its sixth year.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based monitor of the war, said the army's advance into the town was aided by a heavy bombardment since dawn on Thursday, including with rockets, mortars and barrel bombs dropped by helicopter.
Rebels, including hardline Islamist groups, had captured a number of villages in northern Hama province in the center of the populated west of the country, in recent weeks.
Recent fighting between Syria's army and its allies against an array of rebel groups has been heaviest around Aleppo in northwest Syria, in insurgent-held pockets near the capital Damascus in the southwest, and north of Hama.

(Reporting By Angus McDowall; Editing by Toby Chopra)

Next In World News

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

By Edmond Y. Azadian
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Islamist AKP party has turned Turkey into a fascist state terrorizing its domestic population and murdering the Kurdish minority. The US, Europe and Russia have all subscribed to Erdogan’s policy, each driven by their selfish interests. They all need a bully in the region to resort to in rotation for their political ends.
On the one hand, the Turkish government is in pursuit of a rigorous witch-hunt to purge followers of Abdullah Gulen, who supposedly was behind the failed recent military coup. On the other hand, the army has been waging a war of extermination against its Kurdish minority under the guise of fighting terrorism. The US and the European Union (EU), to ease their consciences, have accepted the Turkish government’s claim that the PKK (Kurdish Worker’s Party) is a terrorist organization and not a national liberation movement.
The irony is that on the other side of the border in Syria, the PKK affiliate is hailed and supported as a US ally.
To demonstrate the dictatorial nature of Erdogan’s regime, Ali Bayramoglu has posted an article in Al Monitor, where he states: “Turkey has been governed through legislative decrees that bypass parliament. The paradox stems both from the legal flaws in how Gulenists are being pursued, which has increasingly resembled a witch-hunt and the way the emergency-rule regime is being used, going beyond the stated purpose of pursuing and cleansing the putschists.”
To further substantiate the above claims, Bayramoglu writes in the same article: “The purges have produced a staggering toll —x93,000 public employees suspended, 60,000 people expelled from public service, 50,000 people detained and 32,000 people imprisoned pending trials, according to open sources. The toll also includes the closure or seizure of 4,245 entities, including 129 foundations, 1,125 associations, 15 universities, 198 trade unions, 23 radio stations, 45 newspapers and 29 publishing houses. … A political system centered on suspicions and perceptions of threat has long been a fundamental feature of authoritarian regimes.”
Intellectuals, writers, journalists and artists are either in jail or have already fled the country. The turmoil created by this campaign — or Erdogan’s version of “Cultural Revolution” — has already had its adverse impact on the economy and on society.
Parallel to this witch-hunt, the Erdogan government has suspended peace negotiations with the Kurds and instead has turned southeastern Turkey into a “slaughterhouse province,” once again.
Despite the overwhelming military might of the government, many areas in the Kurdish region have become a no-man’s land. Erdogan is also vying to reinstate the death penalty. At a recent rally in Bursa, he said, “You know my views about the death penalty. Once this comes to the parliament floor and passes, I will give it my approval. The Westerners ask us about why we keep talking about this. Why should we get permission from you?”
In fact, the death penalty was abolished in Turkey to accommodate demands from the EU. The Erdogan government seems to have given up hopes of joining the EU.
If this two-pronged action continues, it will certainly lead to Turkey’s partition.
To stave off the ultimate catastrophe, Erdogan has resorted to his hallmark ruse, whipping up patriotic fervor of his fanatical Sunni Muslim constituency, floating Ottomanist dreams, which were first brought forth by the former prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu. To deflect internal discontent and resentment, Erdogan is clamoring for the return of fabled lost territories of the defunct Ottoman Empire.
After losing a war, military leaders are considered war criminals and consequently they are punished by execution. That happened in Nazi Germany and Japan, after World War II. But after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, Turkish general Mustapha Kemal emerged as a war hero for his people and for the Allies who had defeated the Ottoman army. The defeat of the Ottoman army offered the right historic opportunity to liberate the long-suffering nationalities from the Turkish yoke. That is the way the Treaty of Sevres was negotiated and signed on August 10, 1920. Armenians and Greeks were to receive lands from their historic territories under the terms of the treaty.
But the rebel leader Kemal continued his war of “liberation” and slaughtered more Greeks and Armenians while negotiating on two opposing fronts to gain support and concessions, on the one side with the Allies and the other with the rising Soviet power. This continued until the international community settled on the Treaty of Lausanne in 1923, which drew the current borders of the Republic of Turkey. That was an unbelievable gift to a defeated country. Additionally, in 1939, French colonial powers ceded the province of Antioch to Turkey, with its Arab population and that became today’s Hatay region. Syria never acquiesced to that loss.
Now, Mr. Erdogan is unhappy with the Lausanne borders. He complains: “When we shout in Turkey it is heard on littoral Greek Islands.” In a recent speech at Rize University, Mr. Erdogan, the historian, invoked thexMisak i Millix(The National Pact) proclaimed by the Ottoman Parliament in 1920 before its dissolution and said: “Some historians admit that the borders of the National Pact included Cyprus, Aleppo, Mosul, Erbil, Kirkuk, Batumi, Salonika, Varna an the Aegean Islands.”
Based on that fictitious claim, Turkey has already occupied 38 percent of Cyprus territory, which was ceded by the Ottoman Sultan to Britain with disgrace at the conference of Berlin in 1878. This is the price of the Armenian blood, spilled by the Sultan. In 1974, Turkey invaded Cyprus and occupied its northern region to establish the Turkish Republic of Cyprus, misinterpreting the Zurich Accord of 1960 which approved the independence of Cyprus.
Britain, Greece and Turkey would guarantee the integrity of the country, while Turkey has violated and continues to violate that integrity and no power has been able to dislodge the aggressor.
This is a very instructive example for naïve Armenian pundits who dream of having Armenia join NATO. Greece is an equal partner in NATO, yet Turkey is treated preferentially. Would Armenia enjoy a better chance than Greece in the NATO structure?
Turkey has already invaded Syria to prevent the formation of a Kurdish enclave, under the watchful and tolerant eyes of Russian forces. But more seriously, Turkey has stationed its forces in Iraq to participate in the liberation of Mosul from ISIS. “We have a historic responsibility in the region claims,” claims Erdogan, while the Iraqi government requests the Turkish forces to leave its territory. In response, the normally mild-mannered Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi, writes thexNew York Times, warned last week of a military confrontation between Turkey and Iraq. If Turkish forces intervene in Mosul, he said, “they will not be at a picnic.”
Despite the fact that Turkey has undermined American goals in Iraq by insisting to play a role in the fight in Mosul, the US has been very tolerant of the Turkish thrust. The US Secretary of Defense Ash Carter, who was sent to Turkey to convince Mr. Erdogan to withdraw his forces from Iraq, has given his equivocal assessment of the situation: “The United States is trying to balance our respect for the sovereignty of Iraq and our respect also for Turkey’s historic role in the region.”
It is this kind of sleazy approval that encourages the Turkish bully in its transgressions.
Mr. Erdogan was also championing the rights of Tartars in Crimea and threatening Russia for taking over Crimea, but after crawling to Moscow to ask for favors from Mr. Putin, the Tartars no longer feature in his Ottomanist agenda.
This approach is used against other countries, too. After pouring tremendous amounts of investment in the Ajaria region of Georgia, when Erdogan claimed the Batumi Seaport on the Black Sea was Turkish territory, there was a strong backlash and hostile anti-Turkish demonstrations in Georgia.
At this time, Turkey is well entrenched in Cyprus with the collusion of the US and Europe. After the wars wind down in Iraq and Syria, Turkey may keep its forces in those countries, playing the interests of the East against West.
Erdogan’s Ottomanist claims may turn out to be a tactical game to divert the attention of Turkey’s disgruntled population but he is becoming a threat to all neighboring countries.
However, an Arab journalist based in London believes otherwise. Abdel Bari Atwan, editor-in-chief ofxRai al-Yom, writes: “Turkey’s policies and its falling into the quagmire of Syrian war, by supporting terrorists and plotting to overthrow Basha Al-Assad, it will experience the same fate as Syria, since it played a major role, besides others, in exporting terrorism to Syria.”
While addressing Iraq’s prime minister on his claim on Mosul, Mr. Erdogan has boasted, “I am teaching him a history lesson.”
And indeed, he has been an astute professor of history, sometimes jumping from the sublime to the ridiculous. In 2014, addressing Latin American Muslim leaders gathered in Istanbul, Erdogan made a historic revelation, derided around the world. He stated that Muslim sailors had arrived in America in 1178. “Contacts between Latin America and Islam date back to the 12thxcentury,” knocking Christopher Columbus off his historic perch.
Given Mr. Erdogan’s fertile imagination and ambitions, one is prompted to ask when he is planning to claim the Americas as part of his Islamic Empire, as he strikes against domestic and foreign enemies.

http://www.mirrorspectator.com/2016/10/27/erdogans-ottoman-empire-strikes-back/

[lampron]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Britain, Greece and Turkey would guarantee the integrity of the country, while Turkey has violated and continues to violate that integrity and no power has been able to dislodge the aggressor.
This is a very instructive example for naïve Armenian pundits who dream of having Armenia join NATO. Greece is an equal partner in NATO, yet Turkey is treated preferentially. Would Armenia enjoy a better chance than Greece in the NATO structure?

No, worse! Objectively, Greece has an important strategic position in the eastern Mediterranean controlling sea lanes and many islands. Armenia is a small land locked country

Despite the fact that Turkey has undermined American goals in Iraq by insisting to play a role in the fight in Mosul, the US has been very tolerant of the Turkish thrust. The US Secretary of Defense Ash Carter, who was sent to Turkey to convince Mr. Erdogan to withdraw his forces from Iraq, has given his equivocal assessment of the situation: “The United States is trying to balance our respect for the sovereignty of Iraq and our respect also for Turkey’s historic role in the region.”
It is this kind of sleazy approval that encourages the Turkish bully in its transgressions.

Will publications and organizations in Armenia dreaming of NATO pay attention?

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

"Will publications and organizations in Armenia dreaming of NATO pay attention? "
Those are paid agents of the west, much like our own resident davachan vrej1915. Not that CSTO has been milk and honey but NATO will be a lot like cyanide.

[lampron]

Re: Regional geopolitics

"Will publications and organizations in Armenia dreaming of NATO pay attention? "
Those are paid agents of the west, much like our own resident davachan vrej1915. Not that CSTO has been milk and honey but NATO will be a lot like cyanide.

It is highly unlikely that CSTO will ever allow Turkey to cross the border with Armenia. NATO has not opposed Turkish jets regularly violating Greek airspace

But the ultimate guarantor of Armenian borders should be Armenians themselves. Relying on the Western powers to protect Armenian security was disastrous in 1920. Are NATO dreamers in Armenia taking these events into consideration?

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

It is highly unlikely that CSTO will ever allow Turkey to cross the border with Armenia. NATO has not opposed Turkish jets regularly violating Greek airspace

But the ultimate guarantor of Armenian borders should be Armenians themselves. Relying on the Western powers to protect Armenian security was disastrous in 1920. Are NATO dreamers in Armenia taking these events into consideration?

I do not see the benefit of countries like Greece and Serbia staying with NATO as they are either attacked by NATO or by its members anyways. As bad as things can get between Armenia and Kazakhstan, neither one has ever attacked the other like some NATO countries have. If Russia succeeds in Syria i think more countries will be interested in CSTO.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Kurdish forces, Syrian rebels both advance in race to ISIS stronghold of Al-Bab
By Chris Tomson - 28/10/2016
almasdarnews

On Thursday, rebel militants of various Free Syrian Army (FSA) brigades attacked and captured several villages from ISIS in the northern Aleppo countryside.

Thus, the FSA imposed full control over the villages of Dweir Al-Hawa, Abla and Tall Ali as their forces gradually approach the Islamic State stronghold of Al-Bab. The capture of these villages, located northwest of Al-Bab, puts rebel units just 13 kilometers from the city.

During the FSA offensive, the Islamic State put up little resistance and continued a rolling retreat from the region, focused on minimizing ISIS casualties and pinning Syrian rebels and Kurdish fighters against one another.

Meanwhile, the predominately Kurdish "Syrian Democratic Forces" (SDF) seized nearby Tall Madiq from the FSA on Wednesday and also rather notably reopened the frontline between Jarablus and Manbij, capturing a further two villages from the FSA on this axis; namely Umm al-Jabul and Ala Bash.

Due to recent advances, SDF militants are approximately 18 kilometers west of Al-Bab.

The control of Al-Bab is highly significant for all three warring parties. For the Islamic State, it represents the group's last major city in Aleppo province and a vital buffer-zone into the Raqqa governorate.

Meanwhile, if the SDF is to capture the city, it will allow them to connect two separated Kurdish-held regions in northern Syria. Finally, for the Turkish-backed FSA, rebel fighters are motivated by the idea of reaching Aleppo city from its eastern flank, assisting their entrenched Islamist comrades who are besieged by Syrian government forces.

Given the current rate of advance, anti-ISIS factions are expected to reach Al-Bab before the end of 2016.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Putin urges new Marshall Plan for Middle East to see recovery and growth
By News Desk - 28/10/2016

(TASS) The Middle East needs a present-day edition of the Marshall Plan to see recovery and growth, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday.

"It has been said more than once that this evil [terrorism] can be defeated only through polled effort of all world countries. Russia has offered that and is offering it to all of its partners," Putin said at a meeting of the Valdai international discussion club. "Colossal damage requires a long-term and all-round program, a kind of the Marshall Plan to revive this war- and conflict-torn region."

Putin called to pull efforts to counter terrorism and to do it not just in words. He reminded that it has been said more than once that this evil could be defeated only through consolidated effort of all the countries of the world. The Russian leader stressed that the international agenda should feature the issue of restoring statehood, economy and the social sphere of the Middle East countries.

Russia is ready to take an active part in such joint efforts, Putin added.

Russia plans no military intervention to any of the Middle East countries, he stressed.

"We plan nothing of the kind," Putin vowed answer a question at a meeting of the Valdai international discussion club.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/putin-urges-new-marshall-plan-middle-east-see-recovery-growth/