Regional geopolitics

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Yemeni Army shoots down Saudi Apache Helicopter
Written by Leith Fadel on 09/01/2016

The Saudi-led Coalition is fuming after the Yemeni Army downed an Apache Helicopter with their latest surface-to-air defense systems marking the first time that the Yemeni Armed Forces have shot down this U.S. manufactured warplane.

According to sources in Yemen, the Yemeni Army managed to down the aircraft after it circled the residential neighborhoods in the Mede area of the Hijje Governorate. The loss of this aerial asset comes just two days after the Houthis repelled the Saudi Royal Army’s massive attack on the Tawwal border-crossing into northern Yemen.

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/23339/ | Al-Masdar News

[londontsi]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Any translations please.!!

[Artashes]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Any translations please.!!

Loose translation ... North Korea is the greatest place on earth. North Korea can smash the USA into submission. Hooray for north Korea and so forth.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Gen. Dvornikov: Russia’s combined C-in-C and top diplomat in Syria
Debka


It was in August, 2015, on the eve of the massive Russian military intervention in Syria, that President Vladimir Putin selected Col. Gen. Alexander Dvornikov, 54, as chief of Russia’s military operation in Syria and Iraq, DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources report. He resolved a fierce debate among Russia’s top officials and generals over the officer to lead the what was to be the most high-powered venture of the Putin presidency. Many favored a senior air force officer, conceiving the campaign as focusing mainly on air strikes. They proposed Col. Gen. Victor Nikolaevich Bondarev, chief of Aerospace Defense Forces, a branch established just four months ago.
Putin overruled them, having decided that the diplomatic and ground components were to be just as important as the future aerial campaign. He picked Gen Dvornikov, whom he first met 26 years ago in Berlin during the last moments of the dying Soviet empire. In 2015, he judged the general as being the right man for the job he had in mind, by virtue of his extensive military experience in running the 2000-2003 North Caucasus wars against Islamic terror groups, as chief of staff and a motorized infantry division commander.
In his new posting, Gen. Dvornikov was given control of the twin Russian commands in Damascus and Baghdad. They function as two halves of the same war room.
At the Damascus headquarters, he has three partners: the Syrian Chief of Staff Gen. Ali Abdullah Ayyoub, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Gen. Key Parvar and the commander of Hizballah forces in Syria, Mostafa Bader el-Din. Until his mysterious disappearance in November, Gen. Qassem Soleimani, Iranian commander in Syria and Iraq, would put in an occasional appearance at high command conferences.
The two command centers’ operations are fully coordinated and keep the single overall commander, Col. Gen. Dvornikov, on top of events and in control of decisions 24/7 – a key position of enormous authority and extreme diplomatic sensitivity for juggling Moscow's opposition allies and interests.
The Saudi government, which operates, arms and funds a number of Syrian rebel militias, regards the Russian general as the ultimate nemesis of its interests in Syria, because he expends as much force on fighting those militias as in striking the Islamic State.
After the Hizballah super terrorist Samir Quntar was assassinated on Dec. 20, the Saudis engineered a press leak showing how Gen. Dvornikov was turned away from the door of the Iranian command headquarters in Damascus when he came to offer condolences for the death of one of their top agents. The Iranians were furious with the Russian commander for allowing Israeli air planes free rein to fire rockets into Quntar’s secret hideout in Damascus.
That incident was an illustration of how the Russian general walks on eggs in a job that requires him to collaborate militarily with Iran and Hizballah, on the one hand, and uphold the understandings Putin reached with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, on the other, over Israeli Air Force actions against terrorists and their conflciting interests in the southern Syrian regions bordering on Israel.

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Radikal, Turkey
Dec 30 2015

Opening Front Against Russia Via Caucasus! Seriously?

by Fahim Tastekin
[Groong note: the below was translated from Turkish]


The first thing those who hope to retaliate against Russia for Syria
in the Caucasus need to know is this: Neither will the horse of Sheikh
Shamil [a leader of anti-Russian resistance in the Caucasian War]
neigh for you nor will Chechen dagger gleam for you. Transcaucasia is
too fickle to be of any use to you.

The Turkish state's dignitaries are fooling themselves about who
Turkey's partners on the periphery may be. That is why they do not
refrain from playing obsolete cards despite the defeats in a vast area
extending from Central Asia to the Balkans, from the Middle East to
North Africa. The word has it some scenarios are being considered in
which Turkey will be making life difficult for Russia in the Caucasus
or in the Crimea in response to Moscow's sanctions that followed the
downing of the Russia plane. I do not know whether they are aware how
outdated the cards they plan to play in these regions are.

The Caucasus, which fought legendary fights against Russian
colonization, witnessed exiles, and genocide, has all along been
Russia's soft belly as far as global giants are concerned. Today, the
West's view of the Caucasus remains the same. Transcaucasia, Russia's
backyard, functions as a buffer zone against NATO. Therefore, the
first thing the NATO camp does when it seeks to make life difficult
for Russia is to interfere in the Caucasus and Transcaucasia.

The collective memory of the Caucasus has been cautious in the face of
provocative overtures ever since it was left on its own in the war of
liberation. Everyone remembers the remarks Sultan Abdulaziz made upon
meeting Sheikh Shamil in a ceremonious reception in Istanbul in 1870,
11 years after Sheikh Shamil had to surrender to Russians after
changing his war strategy based on a promised Ottoman support.
Abdulaziz said, "I could not have been happier if my father were to
raise from his grave and appear before me." However, no one wishes to
hear the response from the Caucasian Eagle. The rumour has it Sheikh
Shamil reproached the Sultan who had extended his arm for a handshake
when he said, "I waited for this hand for 25 years." Those in the know
also know the role played by the Ottomans, who had struck a deal with
the Russian Tsar, in Sheikh Shamil's exile in 1864. Chechens also
remember how the Turkish support was cut off abruptly in line with the
Blue Stream gas pipeline project with Russia in the 1990s. There is a
lot to be said about that part of history.

As for the current situation, if the tension between Turkey and Russia
is not resolved through reasonable means, these fault lines of crisis
in the Caucasus and Transcaucasia could be triggered again.

Following the costly Chechnian experience, it is very difficult to
revive the pro-independence veins in the republics that are part of
the Russian Federation. However, it is still possible to terrorize the
system by opening up channels of support to organizations such as the
"Emirate of Caucasia." We are aware that the Caucasians who fight for
organizations such as al-Nusrah and ISIL reach Syria and Iraq
particularly via Georgia and Turkey. The Shishanies (Chechens) are
members of the Kist community who live in the mountainous Pankisi
Gorge on the Chechen border. Once their job is done in Iraq and Syria,
these people will probably go back via the same route. After the
crisis erupted in Syria, the first person to play the "militant card"
against Russia was Bandar bin Sultan, the then Saudi intelligence
chief. There is now a large pool of militants available to those who
wish to settle scores with Russia. They can be deployed in the
Caucasia.

Karabakh, Russian Defence Network

Another region that lends itself to becoming a hot spot is
Nagorno-Karabakh. At a time when the casualties from Armenia and
Azerbaijan along the cease-fire line increased, Prime Minister Ahmet
Davutoglu made critical remarks during his visit to Baku on 3 December
when he said, "Turkey will continue to side with Azerbaijan until all
territories of Azerbaijan are freed." Thereafter, the Azeri army
opened artillery fire against Armenian positions. Of course, these
attacks along the cease-fire line are not new. Cease-fire violations
escalated during the past several years. For instance in 2014, 64
soldiers and eight civilians from both sides were killed. In 2015, 56
soldiers and three civilians died. The latest tension that involves
the use of tanks gives the impression that Turkey backs Baku.
Similarly, Armenia is also self-confident.

In the aftermath of the recent deadly attacks, the Armenian Ministry
of Defence announced that the cease-fire with Azerbaijan ended.

Had it been only a matter of deadly attacks across the cease-fire
line, the latest events could have been viewed as a continuation of
previous crises. However, it appears that Russia is building a
security network in Transcaucasia in parallel with the tensions in
Nagorno-Karabakh and in the Turkish Russian relations. This is the
crux of the matter. Russia is turning the crisis into an opportunity
while getting ready for all likely scenarios.

When those in Ankara are drowning in shallow waters while harping on
"strategic depth," Russia is staging its game plans one by one, as if
playing a chess game.

The first move: the military bases in Armenia are being fortified.
Russia has two military bases in Armenia, one in Gumru and the other
one in Erebuni, 80 miles north of Yerevan. On 8 December, six Mi-24P
and Mi-8MT helicopters were dispatched to Erebuni, which hosts an
S-300 air defence system and MiG-29 jets. In total, from 4,000 to
5,000 soldiers are stationed in both bases.

The second move: reinforcements are being sent to the border area.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin gave orders on 29 November for the
deployment of elite artillery and infantry units as well as air
defence system, multiple rocket launchers and antitank weaponry. All
this deployment involves 7,000 soldiers.

The third move: the preparatory work has been accelerated to enable
the Collective Security Treaty Organization, set up in 1992 against
NATO, to acquire an integrated air defence system.

Within this framework, Russia signed with Armenia a joint security
treaty as part of the plan for a "united regional air defence system."
Additionally, the treaty includes military cooperation, training
support, donation of vehicles and equipment, and joint military
exercises. Russia also opened up a line of credit to Armenia worth
$200 million.

A similar treaty was signed with Kazakhstan in 2013. Work is under way
to include Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Russia implemented this model,
which amalgamates air defence systems, for the first time in Belarus.
The joint defence system with Armenia makes Russia Turkey's neighbour
in airspace. Both via Armenia and via the S-400 air defence system
deployed in Latakia Province in Syria, Russia is able to pry into
almost the entire Turkish air space.

How About Partners?

While Russia attempts to include in its strategic plans the member
countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States, in Transcaucasia
there are two countries with whom Turkey is seeking to establish a
joint stance, namely Georgia and Azerbaijan. In the shadow of the
tension with Russia, Turkey hosted the defence ministers of Georgia
and Azerbaijan to discuss matters of security.

The situation in these partner countries with which Turkey seeks to
establish an alliance is too precarious for them to take sides in a
likely Turkish-Russian tension. For instance, since Georgia got rid of
Mikheil Saakashvili, who lost his nerve as he was about to become the
conqueror of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and now plays governor in the
town of Odessa in Ukraine, it has been trying to normalize its
relations with Moscow. Therefore, Georgia's heart is with Turkey, its
head is with Russia.

How about Turkey's "fraternal country" Azerbaijan? While the Ilham
Aliyev Administration pursues a balanced policy between Moscow and
Washington, it also extends its hand to Turkey but is cautious not to
lose the arm!

It is true that the Azeris see Russia, which shields Armenia, as the
deterrent factor in the failure to recapture the occupied territories.
Nevertheless, Azeris are looking to get along with Russia, so much so
that during recent years, Azerbaijan, which became the most heavily
armed country in the region thanks to the money from oil, made 85 per
cent of its weapon imports from Russia. Among the weaponry Baku bought
are T-90 tanks, S-300 air defence system, and Mi-35M helicopters.

We also know that there is a lack of trust between Aliyev and the AKP
[Justice and Development Party] Administration. When we look at Baku's
stance regarding the Turkey-Russia crisis, we see the following: When
during their meeting in Saint Petersburg the members of the
Commonwealth of Independent States condemned the downing of the
Russian plane, Azerbaijan did not get involved. Aliyev proposed to be
a mediator instead of taking sides in the crisis. Baku is also
considering the risk that siding with Turkey would provoke Russia
regarding Karabakh. Furthermore, similar to Armenia, Azerbaijan, too,
is attempting to turn the tension between Russia and Turkey into an
opportunity. Azeris are happy because of the decision to complete
TANAP [Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline], which will ship natural
gas to Turkey and Europe, before 2018. Azeris are also hoping to fill
the vacuum created by the export ban Russia imposed on Turkey. So are
Georgia and Armenia...

Even though these countries maintain their orientation towards the
West to counterbalance Russia, they are also aware that to give
credence to "New Ottomanism" or "Newcomer Unionists" [the author is
arguing that the AKP government is pursuing a line similar to the
Committee of Union and Progress whose ultimate aim was to return the
Ottoman Empire to its former status as one of the world's great
powers] would be disastrous for them. Therefore, the new Unionists
cannot afford to play games on the Caucasian front, particularly,
given that the whole world saw the way they conducted themselves in
the Middle East.


[Groong note: the above was translated from Turkish]

[londontsi]

Re: Regional geopolitics



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[londontsi]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Explosion at İstanbul’s historic square kills at least 10, media ban imposed

http://www.todayszaman.com/latest-news_explosion-at-i-stanbuls-historic-square-kills-at-least-10-media-ban-imposed_409409.html

At least 10 killed, 15 wounded in suicide bombing near tourists on central Istanbul square - media

https://www.rt.com/news/328603-turkey-istanbul-blast-square/

[Artsakh]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Explosion at İstanbul’s historic square kills at least 10, media ban imposed

On top of the Russian, they can kiss the German tourists goodbye.

[londontsi]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Turkish military deployment in Georgia will result in secession of Javakhk

http://www.horizonweekly.ca/news/details/79049

ARMINFO - "If attempts to deploy a Turkish military base in the territory of Georgia are really made, we will openly call on the population of Javakhq (Samtskhe- Javakheti-Tsalka region) to launch signature collection for secession", says the statement of the Javakhq Diaspora of Russia, issued following the Georgian media reports that the upcoming meeting of the defence ministers of Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan in Tbilisi may consider possible deployment of a Turkish military base in Georgia.

"We call on the newly-elected government of Georgia to prevent the country's involvement in the deliberate provocative conflicts, given that Turkey is going to do the bidding of its western and North- Atlantic patrons and to deliver another stab in the back of Russia, destabilizing the situation in the territory that directly affects the interests Russia's security. In the given case, the interests of not only Russia but also neighbouring Armenia are affected," the statement says.

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Turkish military deployment in Georgia will result in secession of Javakhk

http://www.horizonweekly.ca/news/details/79049

ARMINFO - "If attempts to deploy a Turkish military base in the territory of Georgia are really made, we will openly call on the population of Javakhq (Samtskhe- Javakheti-Tsalka region) to launch signature collection for secession", says the statement of the Javakhq Diaspora of Russia, issued following the Georgian media reports that the upcoming meeting of the defence ministers of Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan in Tbilisi may consider possible deployment of a Turkish military base in Georgia.

"We call on the newly-elected government of Georgia to prevent the country's involvement in the deliberate provocative conflicts, given that Turkey is going to do the bidding of its western and North- Atlantic patrons and to deliver another stab in the back of Russia, destabilizing the situation in the territory that directly affects the interests Russia's security. In the given case, the interests of not only Russia but also neighbouring Armenia are affected," the statement says.

Even Georgians cant be this stupid, can they?