Regional geopolitics

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Syrian government territory grows by 1.3% with Russian military support

Columb Strack - Senior Analyst, Middle East & North Africa at IHS
21 January 2016

Syrian government territory grew by 1.3% with Russian military support between 29 Sep 2015 and 11 Jan 2016. Source: IHS Conflict Monitor
Significance: Russia’s immediate objective in Syria, namely to shore up the Assad government’s position and save it from military defeat at the hands of the Sunni rebels, has largely been achieved.


Implications: This has set the conditions for localised ceasefires, but meaningful concessions in the Vienna talks remain unlikely, leaving little scope for larger and more stable agreements.

Outlook: Likely government successes against the Islamic State in al-Bab would further strengthen the incentive for Western governments to support a political solution that retains the existing power structures, which are amenable to Russia.


The Syrian government expanded its territory by 1.3% with Russian military support between 29 September 2015 and 11 January 2016, according to the latest IHS Conflict Monitor estimate. These gains represent a turnaround in the government’s position, considering it lost 18% of its territory in the first eight months of 2015, and was edging towards the loss of Aleppo and intensified attacks against the Alawite heartland in Latakia. Russia’s immediate objective in Syria, namely to shore up the Assad government’s position and save it from military defeat at the hands of the Sunni rebels, has largely been achieved. Momentum has shifted back in favour of government forces, which are stabilizing front lines in areas that are core to the government’s survival, and making slow but steady progress as coordination between the Russian Air Force, Hizbullah and the Syrian Army appears to be improving.

All of the government’s net gains between 29 September 2015 and 11 January 2016 were achieved against Sunni rebels (590 km2 gained vs 205 km2 lost), whereas the government suffered an overall net loss of 5 km2 to the Islamic State (205 km2 gained vs 210 km2 lost).

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[Mher]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Syria's endless civil war may finally be at a decisive tipping point

Patrick xxxxburn | The Independent | Jan 24, 2016, 06.40 PM IST

The Syrian peace talks between government and opposition will begin in the next few days in Geneva in an atmosphere of almost undiluted gloom about the prospects for success. The two sides hate each other and have spent five years trying to kill each other, making it unlikely that they will agree to share power in any way except geographically, with each side keeping the territory it currently holds and defending it with its own armed forces.
This pessimism is difficult to contradict, given that several of the most powerful groups doing the shooting will not be present in Geneva. Neither Isis nor the al-Nusra Front are invited, not that it was ever likely that they would turn up even if they were. There are disputes about who exactly is a terrorist, with Saudi Arabia pushing the Army of Islam that controls the rebel stronghold on the eastern side of Damascus and Turkey insisting on the exclusion of the Syrian Kurds, America's most effective ally against Isis.
The problem about ending the war in Syria and Iraq is that there is a multitude of players who are too strong to lose but too weak to win. Countries and movements such as Iran and Hezbollah see themselves as fighting for their very existence in a war they cannot afford to lose. Others, like Saudi Arabia and Turkey have invested too much credibility in the struggle for Syria to admit they are not going to achieve their aim of ousting President Bashar al-Assad.
Wars sometimes end by exhaustion rather than agreement, and that may be the best that can be expected for Syria. Local ceasefires and armed truces would be put in place, like the 600 or more that periodically interrupted the 15-year civil war in Lebanon. The difficulty here is that cult-like movements such as Isis and al-Nusra exist to fight for and live up to their Islamic faith by fighting what they see as demonic enemies. They are not like the Lebanese warlords who used to occasionally find it in their mutual interests to stop trying to kill each other.
But, while we may not see many positives emerge from the talks in Geneva, the political landscape in the region is a little more conducive to peace than previously. The Russian military intervention four months ago means that Assad is not going to lose, though he is unlikely to win decisively. He remains in power but only because of the increased support from Iran, Russia and Hezbollah in Lebanon and, even with their backing, his army has not recaptured cities he lost last year, such as Palmyra and Idlib. President Assad may not want to talk in Geneva, or subsequently, but he is more than ever dependent on these external allies who do not want to be mired in an endless Syrian civil war.
Winners and losers are beginning to emerge in Syria, though not all of those involved can see this. Isis is looking increasingly battered by a medley of enemies backed by the US and Russian air forces, though it is nowhere near defeat. The US keeps trumpeting its loss of Ramadi, in Iraq, but the Iraqi special forces that took over the ruined city number only about 500 soldiers. The Iraqi Kurdish peshmerga who recaptured Sinjar have not been paid for five months, because the Kurdistan Regional Government is bankrupt. The Syrian army is short of men and, while its morale may be higher thanks to the Russians, it is still exhausted by five years of war. The Syrian Kurds are successful, but averse to being used as cannon fodder by the US and they are nervous of Turkish intervention.
It is dangerous to describe any single phase of a long-running civil war as being decisive, but the coming months could be just that. The US and its allies in Syria, primarily the 25,000 fighters of the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) with some Sunni Arab allies, are eager to cut Isis off from its last link, through Turkey, to the outside world. They are not far from achieving this. Arab units of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), an umbrella organisation dominated by the YPG, captured the Tishrin dam on the Euphrates, 55 miles east of Aleppo, on 23 December and are close to the Isis stronghold of Manbij.


The news that a movement few had heard of is threatening an obscure town in Syria was never going to set the world on fire. But it is important for three reasons: first, Isis is now almost sealed off within its self-declared caliphate; second, the Syrian Kurds, using their surrogate, the SDF, have crossed west of the Euphrates despite Turkey's threats never to let this happen without a military response; third, and most important, the attack of the SDF was supported by both US and Russian air strikes, though not at the same time. "The Russians are now carrying out most of the air strikes there," said a Syrian Kurdish representative. In other words, the US and Russia in this part of Syria are acting as if they had a de facto military alliance.

The big loser here could be Turkey, which seemed to be in such a strong position to extend its influence across the Middle East in 2011. Its image as an economically prospering, democratic yet Islamic, state was attractive to many Arab protesters looking to overthrow and replace dictatorial rule. But the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, soon made clear that he was supporting a Sunni Arab sectarian takeover that was anti-Shia, anti-Kurd and anti-secular and was bound to be resisted. Having first backed the Muslim Brotherhood, Turkey then tolerated or helped Isis, al-Nusra and extreme jihadi groups.

It was a calamitous miscalculation for Syria and for Turkey. For all President Erdogan's neo-Ottoman dreams of making Turkey a great power in the Middle East again, he has achieved the opposite. How he responds to this failure should become clear in the coming months as the US and Russia try, in different ways, and in support of a rather different list of allies, to close the border between northern Syria and Turkey.
President Erdogan will either have to accept Turkey's exclusion from northern Syria or increase Turkish military involvement, possibly including an invasion. Critical commentators in Turkey say he wanted to invade last year, but was restrained by senior Turkish army generals. Full-scale military engagement by Turkey would be more difficult today, since Russian military intervention and the shooting down of a Russian bomber by a Turkish F-16 on 24 November. A Turkish move into northern Syria now would face American disapproval and resistance by Russian aircraft and anti-aircraft missiles.
The war in Syria and Iraq is far from over but, as winners and losers emerge, the chances of local ceasefires and, ultimately, some sort of peace will become more feasible. The Assad government and the opposition may not be able to agree in Geneva, but the outside powers which support them are becoming increasingly eager to bring the conflict to an end.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/Syrias-endless-civil-war-may-finally-be-at-a-decisive-tipping-point/articleshow/50707313.cms

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Czech PM blames Turkey for Europe’s migrant crisis


Written by Paul Antonopoulos
25/01/2016


Czech Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka argued on state television that it would be easier to stop refugees departing from Turkey rather then sending them back once they reach Greece.

He continues that Turkey have the means to accomplish this since the $3.2 billion deal in which Turkey would make efforts to stop the flow of illegal migrants.

He states that: “Turkey has the means to take migrant crisis under control,” the Prime Minister said, “It is much easier to prevent ships from departing from Turkey than to send them back from Greece.”



“If there are no results seen from Turkey and Greece by the next European Council meeting, which is due on February, Visegrad countries (V4 — Czech, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary) will propose this alternative to EU. This will put more pressure on Turkey and Greece to do a better job on regulating the influx of migrants,” he continues.

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

SYRIA IN LAST 24 HOURS: ARMY CAPTURES STRATEGIC REGIONS IN LATTAKIA, ALEPPO

Mon Jan 25, 2016 12:6

TEHRAN (FNA)- The Syrian army and popular forces made new military
gains in the provinces of Lattakia and Aleppo by winning back important
villages, towns and cities over the past 24 hours.

The Syrian forces took full control of the town of Rabi'a in Lattakia
province in fierce clashes with the militants.

In the Northern province of Aleppo, the Syrian army and the popular
forces seized back the Strategic city of Al-Bab and the village of
al-Rawda as well as a number of other villages.

The Syrian troops also inflicted heavy losses on the militants in
other provinces.

Lattakia

The Syrian army backed by popular forces opened their way into the
strategic town of Rabi'a, the second stronghold of the terrorists in
the province of Lattakia, and won full control over the town after
hours of heavy fighting.

The winning back of Rabi'a town came after the Syrian troops seized
back seven villages in the coastal province near the borders with
Turkey.

The Syrian troops entered the town from the West after killing tens
of terrorists and injuring dozens more in fierce clashes.

Also on Sunday, the Syrian army seized back the villages of
Al-Shakeriya, Beit Ayoush, Kerker, Beit Avan and Al-Rayan villages
in the Western part of Rabi'a.

The Syrian army had besieged the Rabi'a region, the second stronghold
of the militants in the Lattakia countryside from the West, South
and North.

Pro-government groups played a significant role in supporting the
Syrian Army in the course of the operation, conducted during past
24 hours, to free villages of Hilwa al-Gharbiya, Hilwa al-Sharqiya,
Beit Arab, Beit Ablaq and Tal Asholan, along with all the hills
surrounding them.

Pushing back Takfiri terrorists to retreat from villages and
surrounding areas, in the course of the operation, Syrian Army units
and popular forces killed tens of them and injured several more.

Meantime, hundreds of Takfiri militants tried to cross the border to
Turkey before they were hunted by the Syrian army in newly captured
regions, specially the strategic town of Rabi'a in Lattakia province.

The Syrian army's engineering units were defusing IEDs and mines
planted by the terrorists in Rabi'a town and al-Rawda village after
capturing them on Sunday.

Tens of terrorists were killed and dozens more were injured in heavy
clashes with the Syrian troops in the Sunday clashes in the region as
the army conducted massive assault to win back the town that is known
as the second stronghold of the terrorists in the province of Lattakia.

Aleppo

A number of ISIL hideouts and concentration points were destroyed in
Syrian airstrikes in Eastern Aleppo province.

As a result of these aerial attacks, Syrian aircraft killed or injured
a number of Takfiri terrorists, destroying their weapons and munitions
in Aleppo province's Arab, al-Bab area, Tadef town and Baza'a village.

Syrian warplanes also targeted Takfiri terrorists' gatherings and
their fortified positions in Tal Hattabat, al-Mefelseh and al-Dakouneh
villages in Aleppo's Eastern countryside, killing and injuring a
number of militants and destroying their munitions and hardware.

Meanwhile, during a separate airborne assault, Syrian jets hit
hideouts and concentration points of Takfiri terrorists affiliated
to al-Nusra Front in Kafr Hamra village at the Northwestern outskirts
of Aleppo city.

In a coordinated action, the Syrian ground force also carried out
special operations in Bani Zeid, Sheikh Saeed and Bustan al-Qasr
neighborhoods in Aleppo city, killing and injuring many of militants,
destroying equipment and their fortified positions.

The Syrian army backed by the popular forces continued their military
advances in Aleppo province, and seized back several strategic villages
North of the recently captured Kuweires airbase.

The Syrian troops took control of the strategic villages of Qatar
and Tal Hattabat to the North of Kuweires airport after heavy clashes
with ISIL terrorists and killing and injuring dozens of them.

Hama

The Syrian Army in a series of attacks against terrorists' positions
in the Northern countryside of Hama province, killed more than a dozen
militants, including a top regional commander, informed sources said
on Sunday.

"Thanks to a series of stern offensives against the Takfiri
terrorists' positions in a major town in the Northern countryside of
Hama province," the sources said, "the Syrian Army inflicted heavy
losses on terrorists in their al-Izza gathering in the region."

According to the sources, 13 Takfiri terrorist were killed, among them
Abdul-Naser Younes Khattab, a deputy leader of al-Izza gathering in
al-Lataminah town.

The Syrian army artillery pounded and destroyed the military positions
of the terrorist groups in several strategic villages across Hama
province on Sunday, killing scores of terrorists, including a senior
commander.

The militants' positions were destroyed in the villages of al-Mansoura,
al-Qahera, al-Ziyarah and al-Qantara in Hama province.

The Syrian army, meantime, killed a large number of militants,
including deputy commander of al-Izza Jama'ah Abdel Nasser Younes
Khattab along with other militants after hitting hard their command
center in the town of al-Lataminah in the Northern part of Hama
province.

The Takfiri militant groups suffered heavy losses as a result of the
Syrian army's artillery operations.

Homs

Syrian fighter jets assaulted hideouts of ISIL Takfiri terrorists
East of Homs city, destroying a number of their bases and hardware.

The offensive, took place in al-Quaryatayn town on the outskirts of
the Badiya desert East of Homs city, was a success in terminating
terrorist' center points and their equipment.

Syrian warplanes also destroyed hideouts and concentration places
of the al-Nusra Front terrorists and other militant groups in Teir
Maala North of Homs city.

Damascus

The Syrian air force continued pounding the military positions and
gathering centers of the terrorists in Western Ghouta in Damascus
countryside, inflicting heavy losses on the militants.

The Syrian fighter jets destroyed the positions of the terrorists in
Darayya in Western Ghouta.

The air force's strikes left tens of militants dead and dozens more
injured.

Meantime, the Syrian terrorists on their social network confirmed
that they have sustained heavy losses in the Syrian warplanes' strikes.

The Syrian army seized back several more areas in the strategic farms
in Eastern Ghouta in Damascus province on Sunday.

The army units captured vast regions in the Northeast of al-Kaziya
in Marj al-Sultan as they headed towards Farazat hilltops in Eastern
Ghouta, killing a dozen militants and injuring many more in fierce
clashes.

Dara'a

The Syrian Army pushed back terrorists further in the strategic city
of Sheikh Meskeen, North of Daraa province, and came in control of
more districts.

In an operation in which dozens of militants were killed, Syrian Army
units, active in Sheikh Meskeen city, took control of the streets,
establishments and buildings in the Northern, Southern and Eastern
parts of the city.

The Syrian Army inflicted large damage on militant groups in massive
artillery attacks on their positions in the Southern city of Dara'a.

Sweida

The Syrian air force struck and destroyed the ISIL terrorists' military
positions in Sweida province, inflicting heavy casualties on them.

The Syrian fighter jets razed ISIL's gathering centers in Tal al-Sahen
region which is located 40 kilometers to the Southeast of Sweida city.

Scores of militants were killed and their machinegun-equipped vehicles
were also destroyed.

The Syrian warplanes also destroyed large amount of weapons and
munition of ISIL terrorists.

http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13941105000439

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Op/Ed Piece: Erdogan’s Nightmare Predicament


Written by Guest Contributor
26/01/2016

It should by now be clear to anyone following the Syrian conflict that things are starting to turn bad for the Turkish and Saudi backed Islamist militants in northwestern Syria. The Syrian Arab Army and its allies backed by Russian airstrikes are steamrolling the Islamist militants, capturing town after town, village after village.

Ever since the start of the successful Latakia offensive back in November 2015, Ankara and its allies have been trying to undermine the effort and even sabotage the Russian air campaign.

Right from the beginning of the Russian campaign, Washington and it’s western media propagandists have been trying to accuse Russia of only bombing “moderate rebels” while sparing ISIS militants.



Of course, they could never provide any evidence to their claims, nor could they prove who these supposed “moderate rebels” actually were. Washington and certain social media “activists” tried to demonstrate on different maps where the Russian airstrikes took place, in order to reinforce their claim of Russia not targeting ISIS.

The uninformed viewer will easily buy into this propaganda, since most people find the Syrian conflict very confusing and complex. But for the one who follows this war, it was rather obvious that the areas Washington was referring to are in fact Al-Qaeda controlled areas. This came as Erdogan kept pushing for an invasion of Syria under several pretexts such as “creating a buffer zone in northern Syria” and “defending the Turkmen minority.”

In late November, Turkish forces shot down a Russian jet flying over Syrian territory. This later turned into a diplomatic crisis where Turkey cited it’s right to defend it’s airspace. The only problem was that the Russian plane was still in Syrian airspace. But of course, in Turkish President Erdogan’s view, northern Syria is now Turkish airspace. Indeed Russian president Putin correctly labeled this as a “stab in the back by terrorist accomplices.”

The Turkish response was irrational, aggressive and hostile. Instead of immediately calling his counterparts in Russia and try to resolve the incident diplomatically, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu called for a urgent NATO meeting. Why would he do that unless he was expecting further confrontation? This along with Turkey’s refusal to apologize for the incident made it clear to the world who’s side Turkey is on (as if there was ever any doubt), after all, Russia was striking Al-Qaeda linked militants, who supposedly one of NATO’s main enemies since 2001.

Since the incident on November 24, Russia has responded by exposing Ankara for it’s dealings with terrorism, especially ISIS and increasing it’s activity in Syria. Russia vowed to never again let such an incident occur and has reinforced their positions with some heavy defensive equipment to counter the Turkish threat.

It has also been clear that Erdogan’s plan of drawing NATO into a conflict with Russia has failed as Ankara’s NATO allies have not been interested in a direct confrontation with Russia.

Recently, the Latakia offensive was interrupted shortly by a failed Islamist counter-offensive after the Islamists received some much needed reinforcements. But where did they come from?

Erdogan has taken upon himself to do whatever it takes to stop the Syrian and Russian efforts as witnessed by his constant attempts to undermine and threaten Russia for its actions in Syria. This means we can expect Ankara to do more to try to sabotage the progress that Syria and its allies are making.

Last week, Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, stated that fresh Islamist recruits are still pouring in from Turkey in an obvious attempt to gain favorable position ahead of the Syria peace talks this week.

This weekend, in light of alleged news emerging of a planned Russian airbase in the northeastern Syrian town of Qamishli, Erdogan threatened Russia again, “We will not allow such a thing in northern Syria” he said.

It remains to be seen what Erdogan’s next move is. The erratic and reckless president is known for his unpredictably.

Whatever he chooses to do, a confrontation between Syria with Russia by its side and Turkey seems inevitable as the Syrian Arab Army and its allies are marching towards the Turkish border.

This turn in the tide of the war can largely be contributed to the excellent coordination between the Syrian Army and their Russian counterparts. With the recent capture of Salma and Al-Rabiiah in Northwestern Syria, the province of Latakia is almost cleared from Islamist militants of the Al Nusra Front and Harakat Ahrar al Sham. Sadly, when truth and reality prevails, western media of course, is nowhere to be found.

We can be sure that Erdogan and NATO won’t back down to this, neither will the Syrian Army who is fighting for it’s country’s survival.

The Syrian-Russian response has been clear, they will press ahead and liberate more areas from Al-Qaeda linked Islamists and ISIS terrorists.

The ball now lies in Ankara’s court, as the Turkish president’s nightmare scenario continues to become a reality, time is running against him. Your move, Erdogan.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Syria’s elite forces expand control in East Aleppo – map update

Written by Zen Adra
25/01/2016

The fearless Tiger Forces, one of the elite commando units of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), are steadily flushing out ISIS fighters from their bastions in Eastern Aleppo; thus securing more areas in the parameters of the recently-recaptured Kuweires airbase.

Today, soldiers of the SAA stormed Uwaynah (i.e Arbid al-Judaydah) village; south of Qatar and Tal al-Hatabat villages and only a few kilometers to the north of Aleppo-Raqqa international highway (M15), leaving scores of the extremist Jihadis dead and wounded.

Informed experts say the wide-scale offensive is designed to secure large swathes around Kuweires airbase so it can be technically and logistically re-activated again by Syrian and Russian jet fighters. This comes amid conflicting reports about the Russians transporting advanced missiles and radar stations in the recent days.



If true, the rehabilitation of Kuweires airbase will considerably augment the effectiveness and efficiency of Russia’s anti-ISIS campaign in Syria as it brings the Russian hardware some 160 km closer to their targets in the organizations’ de facto capital of al-Raqqa, and more importantly and strikingly, making things much more difficult for the Turkish-backed Jaysh al-Fateh in Idlib by squeezing them between two jaws of a pliers; Hmeymim to the west and Kuweires in the east.

A parallel objective of the fresh assault, the experts explain, is Aleppo Thermal Power Plant, currently under ISIS control. However, the Syrian troops will more likely encircle the facility and attempt to capture it without much damaging it (if possible), field reporters who accompany the campaign told Al-Masdar.

[Joseph]

Re: Regional geopolitics

New targets for Russian intelligence operations:

http://www.todayszaman.com/anasayfa_turkish-fighter-involved-in-killing-of-russian-pilot-in-syria-attends-funeral-in-i-stanbul_410830.html

[Joseph]

Re: Regional geopolitics

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/88/Syrian_civil_war.png

Latest update

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

According to Bint Jbeil News Agency, members of Hezbollah downed an Israeli reconnaissance drone that was disguised as an eagle over the large town of Bint Jbeil in the Nabatiyeh Governorate of southern Lebanon (Jnoub). The news agency took several pictures of the unmanned aircraft, detailing its impressive resemblance to an actual eagle that would fly over this mountainous area of southern Lebanon. Israel has increased its spying activity over southern and eastern Lebanon over the last 18 months, despite having several of their reconnaissance drones downed by the Lebanese Army and Hezbollah. Lebanon has issued several warnings to Israel over the repeated violation of their airspace; however, this has done very little to deter the Israelis from dissipating their spy activity over the Nabatiyeh and Beqa’a governorates.

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/israeli-spy-drone/ | Al-Masdar News

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

The Syrian Arab Army’s 103rd Brigade of the Republican Guard and their allies are breezing past the Islamist rebels of Jabhat Al-Nusra (Syrian Al-Qaeda group) and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) inside northern Latakia, seizing an estimated 3/4 of the Turkmen Mountains (Jabal Al-Turkmen) in only 4 months of battle. Following the capture of Rabi’yah last weekend, the Syrian Arab Army’s 103rd Brigade and their allies (specifically Liwaa Suqour Al-Sahra and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party) turned their attention to the strategic town of Kinsibba, which is situated just north of Salma in the Kurdish Mountains (Jabal Al-Akrad) of northeast Latakia. However, the battle for Kinsibba has many benefits to the Syrian Armed Forces; if captured, the latter will be able to isolate the remaining territory under the Islamist rebel control and cutoff all supply routes from the Turkish border. It is very likely that the Syrian Armed Forces capture the remaining territory in the Turkmen Mountains before they decide to cross the Latakia-Idlib axis and attack the strategic city of Jisr Al-Shughour. While many Syrian Opposition activists argue that the Syrian Arab Army’s success is only due to the Islamist rebels withdrawing to preserve their fighters; it still does not explain the catastrophic collapse of their front-lines in 4 months.

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/...thern-latakia/ | Al-Masdar News

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NB: according latest reports, kinshiba is already captured by the army.