Regional geopolitics

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Excellent analysis from a former MI-6 agent

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alasta...b_9169998.html

Major flows in the article:
- pretending the joy and welcome of besieged shiite villagers, under siege and threat of slaughter for 3 years, welcoming their savers, shiite Hezbolla and Iraki sadr troops.... as being example of the entire syrian (mainly sunni) population. Just enough to decredibilise all the rest.

- The road to turkish border is far from being closed, turkey still has more than 100 Km of border with Idleb, and roads in hilly or montainous terrain, covered or not by forest are far more suited for traffic than the one highway in desert the army just cut.

- no way Syria can reunite. If anything, the northern Kurdish rojava, blessed and curved by the US.

- no way can the mukhabarat return its nets inside sunni population, if anything, the 5 year period was enough for turkish services to install much more effective nets...

- just one question: how come Affrin, a Kurdish YPG island did survive for 5 years, if incerceled by Turkey and pro turkish militias? How come much smaller pokets like the Ghutas, or rastan survive, for 5 years??

Syria + Irak as it were, are over, no matter the end scenario, no matter the deals, and no matter the will of regional or interational powers anymore.
Borders have to be redrawn.
This is not small Lebanon of the 90's.

[Shant03]

Re: Regional geopolitics

“Any foreign troops entering Syria would return home in wooden coffins.”

That's pretty generous of him..

[Joseph]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Major flows in the article:
- pretending the joy and welcome of besieged shiite villagers, under siege and threat of slaughter for 3 years, welcoming their savers, shiite Hezbolla and Iraki sadr troops.... as being example of the entire syrian (mainly sunni) population. Just enough to decredibilise all the rest.

- The road to turkish border is far from being closed, turkey still has more than 100 Km of border with Idleb, and roads in hilly or montainous terrain, covered or not by forest are far more suited for traffic than the one highway in desert the army just cut.

- no way Syria can reunite. If anything, the northern Kurdish rojava, blessed and curved by the US.

- no way can the mukhabarat return its nets inside sunni population, if anything, the 5 year period was enough for turkish services to install much more effective nets...

- just one question: how come Affrin, a Kurdish YPG island did survive for 5 years, if incerceled by Turkey and pro turkish militias? How come much smaller pokets like the Ghutas, or rastan survive, for 5 years??

Syria + Irak as it were, are over, no matter the end scenario, no matter the deals, and no matter the will of regional or interational powers anymore.
Borders have to be redrawn.
This is not small Lebanon of the 90's.

Very good points. Overall though, I would say the Turks, Saudis, etc has lost. I imagine just a you imply that Syria will be split into a few distinct entities just as Iraq probably should.

[Artashes]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Hezbollah, Syrian Army storm Bayyanoun and Kafr Naya in northern Aleppo
By Leith Fadel
09/02/2016

Moments ago, the Syrian Arab Army’s 154th Brigade of the 4th Mechanized Division – in close coordination with Hezbollah, the National Defense Forces (NDF), and several Iraqi paramilitary units – launched a new assault on the strategic villages of Bayyanoun and Kafr Naya after a successful weekend that left the Islamist rebels abandoning several sites in the northern countryside of the Aleppo Governorate. According to a source inside the provincial capital of the Aleppo Governorate, the Syrian Armed Forces and their allies launched these attacks on Kafr Naya and Bayyanoun after Russian fighter jets pounded the Islamist rebel defenses inside the aforementioned villages this morning.

Over the weekend, the Syrian Armed Forces and their allies attempted to seize the villages of Kafr Naya and Bayyanoun from the Islamist rebels of Jabhat Al-Nusra (Syrian Al-Qaeda group), the Free Syrian Army (FSA), Harakat Nouriddeen Al-Zinki, Jabhat Al-Shamiyah, Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham, and Jaysh Al-Mujahiddeen; however, they were unsuccessful in this military endeavor. Following their failed bid to capture Bayyanoun and Kafr Naya this past weekend, the Syrian Armed Forces and their allies imposed full control over the villages of Mayer, Rityan, and Kiffeen; this helped position the government forces for the attack that was launched today. The village of Kafr Naya is currently the focal point for the Syrian Armed Forces, as they attempt to advance towards the rebel stronghold of Tal Rifa’at in northern Aleppo.

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/...rthern-aleppo/ | Al-Masdar News

------

i.e: without overwhelming air power, no progress....

--- without overwhelming airpower, no progress ---
And vica versa ... Without effective ground forces, no progress.

Very good points. Overall though, I would say the Turks, Saudis, etc has lost. I imagine just a you imply that Syria will be split into a few distinct entities just as Iraq probably should.

Vrej's post was sensible, but I disagree .
A cooperation between Syria/Iraq, with the implied cooperatin of Iran, drastically changes dynamic.
No Syrian or Iraq govt is going to give up SOVERIEGN of large (any) territory. Both govt are set to see large rebuild cash inflow by Iran and others.
Every player nvolved knows kerds are only fighting to accomplish their agenda. Syria, Iraq, Iran, are not gonna let that happen. Rojas = no java. It's a pure kerd hustle, it don't exist and never has, and ain't gonna. Combined Syria/Iraq/Iran ARMY gonna see to that.
Also, no chance of kerd being in control of turc border. Not tolerable by combined armed forces and allies. The kerd will play both sides of the fence to suit --- their --- agenda. Not going to happen.
Once turc border is sealed, Der Zor is defenseless to ILIMINATION of terrorists. By both Syria and Iraq offensive with Iran as big motivator + ruskie air.
Separating Catholics from Protestants by carving their own territorial rule isn't going to happen here or there. Armies will stop that. And those armies are set to get stronger, not weaker.
Next, Syrian armed forces help Iraq and a semblance of govt control returns with BIG Iran support.
5 months of no foolin around by Russian airforce and it's 180 degrees from 5 months ago.
Niether Russia nor Iran is going to run away at first opportunity.
This is just the start at ending the "terrorist for hire" scam the west and Arab/yahood has been utilizing to accomplish their agenda.
It is this agenda too, that is being battled.

[Artashes]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Iran+ Iraq oil fields is unwanted by soody/arab monarchy's. A stable Iraq/Syria means viable stand against monarchy/west conniving. It also means clear access to the Mediterranean for Iran/Iraq. Oh, guess I forgot Russian benifit, lol.
Stabilizing Syria/Iraq is opposite what west/cohorts have been striving for. Exact opposite.
That's the goal of big pro Syrian benefactors. And the headquarters of Russia/Iran for this op is in Iraq.
See?

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Syrian Air Force destroys large rebel convoy heading to northern Aleppo
By Leith Fadel
09/02/2016

Earlier today, a massive convoy of armored vehicles belonging to the Islamist rebels were reported to be heading towards northern Aleppo from the town of Ariha in the Idlib Governorate. However, most of the armored vehicles from this Islamist rebel convoy would never reach their destination, let alone the Aleppo Governorate’s border, thanks in large part to the Syrian Arab Air Force’s (SAAF) fighter jets that were on the prowl in the Idlib Governorate. According to several field reports from the Syrian Air Force, the fighter jets reportedly destroyed over 20 enemy vehicles that were caught traveling in broad daylight along the Aleppo-Latakia Highway (M-4 Highway).

The final destination of this large convoy was not necessarily clear because the Syrian Opposition activists did not provide details about which front in northern Aleppo that these fighters would be reinforcing. Currently, the Islamist rebels of Jabhat Al-Nusra (Syrian Al-Qaeda group), the Free Syrian Army (FSA), Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham, Harakat Nouriddeen Al-Zinki, Jaysh Al-Mujahiddeen, and Jabhat Al-Shamiyah are under attack along every front in northern Aleppo, leaving them in desperate need of reinforcements to fend off the pro-government forces and the predominately Kurdish “People’s Protection Units” (YPG).

The coming days will be critical for the Islamist rebels; if they are unable to maintain their ground in northern Aleppo, they will likely lose several important sites.

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/...rthern-aleppo/ | Al-Masdar News

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Kurdish forces reportedly capture Mennagh Military Airport in northern Aleppo
By Leith Fadel
10/02/2016

According to several Kurdish social media activists, the People’s Protection Units Units (YPG) – backed by Jaysh Al-Thuwwar of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – have seized the strategic Mennagh Military Airport in northern Aleppo after a violent battle with the Islamist rebels of Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham (largest Islamist/rebel group), the Free Syrian Army (FSA), and Jabhat Al-Shamiyah (Levantine Front).

While no photos have been released from the Mennagh Military Airport tonight; it is most likely under the control of the YPG and SDF after several Islamist social media activists confirmed the complete withdrawal of their forces from the primary base and its nearby village. If the news is true about the SDF and YPG capturing the Mennagh Military Airport; this could ultimately spell trouble for the Islamist rebels in northern Aleppo, as they will be forced to retreat towards their primary stronghold of ‘Azaz near the Turkish border-crossing into the province.

More importantly, should the YPG and SDF choose to attack ‘Azaz in the future, they will be able to launch the assault from two different flanks in northern Aleppo, leaving the Islamist rebels at their mercy. The Russian Air Force led the airstrikes over the Mennagh Military Airport on Tuesday, as the U.S. sat out this offensive in order to avoid escalating the political turmoil with the Turkish regime.

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/...nnagh-airbase/ | Al-Masdar News

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Kurdish state plan to remap Middle East – Armenian analyst
10.02.16

http://www.tert.am/en/news/2016/02/10/ara-papyan/1927319

The Kurdish plan to create an independent state will reshape the Middle East map, bringing to light also the Armenian issue, says an Armenian analyst.

“The Kurdish state plan is inevitable, and it brings to light the Armenian Cause and the land issue. The Armenian Cause is not something we have invented ourselves; neither are we using it. Whenever we are silent, doing nothing, we find ourselves in the loser’s role,” Ara Papyan, the president of the analytical center Modus Vivendi, told reporters on Wednesday.

Commenting on regional developments, the expert called attention to the railway project expected to connect Armenia with Georgia, Nakicevan and Iran. He stressed the need for the Armenian authorities to collaborate with the United States, China, Russia and Iran for realizing the plan.

The expert also addressed the unsettled Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, ruling out the country’s direct involvement in the current peace process. Papyan said he sees that possibility exhausting itself over the course of time.

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

ISLAMIC STATE FORCES RAQQA'S ARMENIAN KIDS STUDY SHARIA

February 10, 2016 - 12:58 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net - The Islamic State group, also known by the name
Daesh, has imposed severe conditions on theArmenians and their families
living in the Syrian city ofRaqqa, Arevelk reports.

A source in Aleppo, who has been able to maintain communication with
Raqqa-based Armenians via WhatsApp, told Arevelk that the militants
make Armenian children gather in special centers for studying Islamic
Sharia.

According to the source, the terrorists have created an atmosphere
of fear in the city, banning any movement in the region.

Around 20 Armenians currently live in the Islamic State stronghold
of Raqqa, with the majority of the population having fled earlier.

https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__arevelk.am_am_content_2_656_-25D5-258C-25D5-25A1-25D6-2584-25D6-2584-25D5-25A1-25D5-25B5-25D5-25AB-2D-25D5-2584-25D5-25A7-25D5-25BB-2D-2D-25D5-258F-25D5-25A1-25D5-25B0-25D5-25A7-25D5-25B7-2D-25D5-2580-25D5-25A1-25D5-25B5-2D-2D-25D4-25B5-25D6-2580-25D5-25A5-25D5-25AD-25D5-25A1-25D5-25B6-25D5-25A5-25D6-2580-25D5-25B8-25D6-2582-25D5-25B6-2D-25D4-25BF-25D5-25A8-2D-25D5-258A-25D5-25A1-25D6-2580-25D5-25BF-25D5-25A1-25EF-25BF-25BD&d=CwIFaQ&c=clK7kQUTWtAVEOVIgvi0NU5BOUHhpN0H8p7CSfnc_gI&r=LVw5zH6C4LHpVQcGEdVcrQ&m=4HxPwZ7z-atyapT_RRX4IyNCBsqYWs63587NrUseoHg&s=R74JFHVl9rObB1UhU1fmN85Di97u-uGFuMXXYwijkpg&e=

https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.panarmenian.net_eng_news_205729_&d=CwIFaQ&c=clK7kQUTWtAVEOVIgvi0NU5BOUHhpN0H8p7CSfnc_gI&r=LVw5zH6C4LHpVQcGEdVcrQ&m=4HxPwZ7z-atyapT_RRX4IyNCBsqYWs63587NrUseoHg&s=ovEL5QMSo9aT7CoR20gvAZsx4tKWpaj6dTA6uvPoUNg&e=

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

URGENT: SYRIAN ARMY ON VERGE OF MAJOR VICTORY AT LATTAKIA-IDLIB BORDER

Wed Feb 10, 2016 4:39

TEHRAN (FNA)- Militant groups operating in the Northeastern part of
Lattakia province have called for more fresh forces to save their
last main stronghold at the border with Idlib province, intelligence
sources said.

"Most of the terrorists, whose positions in the Northern and
Northeastern parts of Lattakia province have been captured by the
Syrian army in the recent days, have been ordered by the militant
commanders to join Kinsibba battlefront," the sources said, adding,
"Heavy air and artillery attacks on the militant defense lines
near Kinsibba testifying the Syrian army's firm will to conduct an
imminent operation in the region to access the Southern territories
of Idlib province."

Earlier reports said that The Syrian Army announced that the capture
of Bashoura in Kurds mountain paved the way for the more rapid
advances of the country's soldiers and the National Defense Forces
(NDF) against the militants in the Northeastern parts of Lattakia
and the Southern parts of Idlib provinces.

The Syrian army, backed up by the NDF, the Syrian Social Nationalist
Party (SSNP), Liwa Suqour al-Sahra (Desert Hawks Brigade), and the
Syrian Marines are steadily advancing along the several fronts in
Lattakia province's Northeastern part that ultimately lead to the
rebel stronghold of Kinsibba.

Following the capture of Bashourah on Tuesday afternoon, the Syrian
government forces shifted their focus towards the rebel stronghold
of Kabani, where they have attempted to position themselves along two
different directions in order to strike the militant groups from the
high ground.

While Kinsibba is the ultimate goal for the Syrian Armed Forces,
the village of Kabane is the gateway to the Eastern side of Kurds
mountain and eventually the militants' strongholds of al-Sirmaniyeh
and Jisr al-Shughour in the Idlib province.

It is very likely that the Syrian Armed Forces choose to capture
Kabani before launching one last large-scale offensive in Northern
Lattakia to seize Kinsibba.

https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__en.farsnews.com_newstext.aspx-3Fnn-3D13941121001202&d=CwIBaQ&c=clK7kQUTWtAVEOVIgvi0NU5BOUHhpN0H8p7CSfnc_gI&r=LVw5zH6C4LHpVQcGEdVcrQ&m=5duNNzqWx67QEQnndnf1UzvrSuGvPRsUbzJR18bqqQY&s=oEBJrrylFrD_38j23nMprkjc4dtVynueNB94FbWtiUk&e=