Regional geopolitics

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Ի՞նչ կլինի, եթե հանկարծ Ալիեւը համաձայնվի
Lragir.am
ՆԱԻՐԱ ՀԱՅՐՈՒՄՅԱՆ, Մեկնաբան
Քաղաքականություն - 19 Հոկտեմբերի 2016


Ադրբեջանի նախագահ Իլհամ Ալիեւը ՌԻԱ Նովոստիին ասել է, որ պատրաստ է Ղարաբաղին ինքնավարություն տալ «Ադրբեջանի տարածքային ամբողջականության շրջանակում»:

Պատահական չէ, որ դա հնչում է այն բանից հետո, երբ Ալիեւը դժգոհություն էր հայտնել ԱՄՆ-ից ղարաբաղյան խնդրի պատճառով: Հիշեցնենք, որ ավելի վաղ ԱՄՆ-ն հայտարարել էր ղարաբաղյան կարգավորման հեռանկարների բացակայության մասին, փաստացի մատնանշելով ստեղծված ստատուս-քվոյին համակերպվելու անհրաժեշտությունը:

Այս շաբաթվա վերջին ԵԱՀԿ Մինսկի խմբի համանախագահները կայցելեն տարածաշրջան եւ կլինեն նաեւ Ղարաբաղում: Այցի նախօրեին ռուս համանախագահ Իգոր Պոպովը, որը հազվադեպ է խոսում, պատասխանել է ադրբեջանական ԱՊԱ գործակալության հարցերին եւ ասել, որ չի կարելի կարգավորման համալիրից առանձնացնել այս կամ այն հարցը: Համալիրում, նրա խոսքով, ընդգրկված են տարածքների վերադարձի, կարգավիճակի, փախստականների վերադարձի, Հայաստանի ու Ղարաբաղի միջեւ միջանցքի հարցերը:

Ալիեւը հարցազրույցում հայտարարել է, որ Ադրբեջանը պատրաստ է Ղարաբաղին ինքնորոշում տալ «իր տարածաքային ամբողջականության շրջանակում»: Այսինքն, նա համաձայն չէ «անկախությանը»:

Հայաստանի ու Ղարաբաղի ներկայացուցիչները ծաղրել են այդ հայտարարությունը՝ հիշեցնելով, թե ինչպես էր Ալիեւը բողոքում, որ միջազգային հանրությունը ստիպում է իրեն ճանաչել Ղարաբաղի անկախությունը: Փաստացի, Հայաստանը ցանկանում է, որ Ադրբեջանը ճանաչի ԼՂՀ անկախությունը:

Եթե Հայաստանը պնդում է, որ Ադրբեջանը ճանաչի Ղարաբաղի անկախությունը, ակամա իր վրա պարտավորություն է վերցնում ճանաչման դեպքում իրագործել կարգավորման այլ կետերը, այդ թվում տարածքների վերադարձը:

Հայաստանը թերեւս հույս ունի, որ Ալիեւը երբեք չի համաձայնվի ճանաչել Ղարաբաղը, սակայն, դատելով Ադրբեջանի նախագահի վերջին հայտարարություններից, նա իր հասարակությանը դրան է պատրաստում: Սակայն նա պետք է հնարավորինս թանկ վաճառի այդ որոշումը, եւ այսօրվա հարցազրույցը խաղադրույքը բարձրացնելու համար է:

Ալիեւը հավանաբար հասկանում է, որ կամ ստիպված է լինելու հաշտվել ստատուս-քվոյի, այսինքն՝ 12000 ք/կմ տարածքով Ղարաբաղի հետ, կամ էլ ճանաչել այն 4-5 հազար ք/կմ տարածքով եւ «վերադարձնել» մնացած մասը: Մինչ այժմ Ալիեւին կարծես թե այսքան կոշտ ընտրության առաջ չէին դրել:

Իսկ ի՞նչ կլինի, եթե Ալիեւը գերադասի ճանաչման տարբերակը:

Հայաստանի ԱԳՆ-ն եւ իշխող կուսակցությունն Ադրբեջանին կոչ են անում հետեւել միջնորդների առաջարկներին: Հայաստանն ու Ղարաբաղն ապրիլյան պատերազմից հետո պետք է հրաժարվեին մադրիդյան սկզբունքներից, սակայն գերադասել են հույս դնել Ալիեւի մերժողականության վրա:

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

From 14:00 ......

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Russia's naval task force: Power play or just theatre?
Jonathan Marcus
Diplomatic correspondent
BBC

A Russian aircraft carrier and other warships will soon head towards the UK.
The naval task force from Russia's Northern Fleet will proceed past the British Isles, down to Gibraltar, and through the Mediterranean Sea to join the Russian combat mission in war-torn Syria.
Why is Russia enhancing its naval presence off Syria now? The answer is part capability and part theatre.
Russia has already flexed its naval power during its operations in Syria, with warships firing cruise missiles at land targets from both the Caspian Sea and the Mediterranean. But naval involvement has never been a critical factor. Most of the targets hit could equally have been struck with aircraft either based in Syria or flying from bases in Russia itself.
To a large extent Russia's naval activity has been a display - a demonstration of Moscow's capabilities and the fact that it retains ambitions to play an overseas role.


The deployments also underscore Russia's continuing desire to retain its small naval base at Tartus, and provide useful experience for Russian vessels in conducting expeditionary operations.
This latest deployment again reflects all these factors.
Until now though, most of the Russian naval presence off Syria has come from its Black Sea fleet, vessels transiting the Bosphorus, deploying into the eastern Mediterranean, and then returning to the Black Sea. Earlier this month, for example, two Buyan-M missile-firing corvettes - the Serpukhov and the Zelyony Dol - left Sevastopol en route for the Mediterranean.


This latest deployment is of a different order, comprising some of the largest warships in the Russian fleet. Leading the task force is Russia's sole aircraft carrier - the Admiral Kuznetsov - escorted by six other vessels. Chief among them is the nuclear-powered battle cruiser - Pyotr Velikiy (Peter the Great) a Kirov-class warship and the largest surface combatant (excluding aircraft carriers) in the world.
With it are two anti-submarine destroyers of the Udaloy class - the Severomorsk and the Vice-Admiral Kulakov. There are also four support vessels. It is likely that the flotilla will be joined by Russian submarines as well, which would typically help protect the carrier.
Nato monitoring
The Admiral Kuznetsov battle group will join some 10 other Russian vessels already off Syria.
These vessels have a long journey from bases of the Russian Northern Fleet. Their exact route is unclear, but they will either pass through the English Channel or to the west of Ireland. It is likely that the Admiral Kuznetsov will conduct some flight operations en route, as its air group works up to combat readiness.
The Russian warships' progress is being carefully monitored by Nato aircraft and ships.

Tensions with the West are high. Diplomatic efforts to resolve the Syria crisis have so far failed. And there has been talk in Washington about exploring potential military options. Russian reinforcements help to consolidate its position and make Western military action probably unthinkable.
Russian air defences have been bolstered in Syria itself. And the additional Russian warships provide extra capabilities to counter air and submarine threats. The aircraft on board the carrier will also give Moscow more fire-power.
Plagued by problems
An added naval presence also serves to counter those in the West who have argued that a "no bomb" zone could be enforced by missiles fired from western warships in the Mediterranean. Russia is pre-emptively upping the naval stakes.
But the mighty presence of warships like the Admiral Kuznetsov and the Peter the Great is deceptive. These are rare outings for Russia's big ships. Indeed, this will be the aircraft carrier's first ever combat deployment. Both vessels have been plagued by problems. The 26-year-old Kuznetsov rarely goes anywhere without a naval tug just in case it breaks down.
It will also be the first combat test for its MIG-29K warplanes. Russian carrier-borne aircraft are launched not by catapult, as in the US Navy, but with a sort of ski ramp. This means they can carry less fuel and weaponry so it is likely that the Kuznetsov will have to cruise relatively close to the Syrian coast to mount air operations.
Any cynicism, though, should be muted. The fact that the Kuznetsov flotilla is on its way at all demonstrates that Russia is one of the few countries in the world that can deploy this kind of sea power.
When Russia entered the Syrian conflict there was a lot of speculation from Western experts that it would fall flat on its face, and that it simply did not have the capability to conduct this kind of expeditionary warfare.
Well, the Russians have proved those experts wrong.
They have shown that they are both innovative and capable. They have demonstrated their ability to strike with tactical aviation - long-range bombers, cruise missile-firing warships in the Caspian Sea and the Mediterranean - and to sustain a reasonable level of ground operations in support of the Syrian government forces too.
Their targeting policy and methods have provoked much criticism. But in terms of pure military capability, Russia's Syrian adventure has so far proved a success.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Turkish military push into Idlib, prepare to assault Kurdish Afrin province
By Paul Antonopoulos - 19/10/2016

According to reports by Al-Dorar, Turkish forces with bulldozers and diggers penetrated as much as 500m into Idlib province near Aqrabat.

These forces began to dig up farmland and olive trees, in which some trees can take up to ten years before they bear fruit with the minimum at three years using modern methods.

The Turkish forces supposedly entered Aqrabat to prepare for a ground invasion against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in Afrin procince. This report however could not be corroborated by Al-Masdar News.

Al-Dorar reported that the Turkish forces withdrew under pressure from local farmers who were angered by the destruction of their farmland and olive trees.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Turkish-backed rebels and Kurds battle it out in northern Aleppo as ISIS retreats
By Chris Tomson - 19/10/2016

Following a rebel request for Kurdish forces to conduct a complete withdrawal from Tall Rifaat yesterday, clashes have now erupted between the Kurdish YPG and Free Syrian Army (FSA) factions in the northern countryside of Aleppo.

Heavy skirmishes and artillery bombardment erupted near and around the Shabha Reservoir on Wednesday despite neither directly conceding villages to the other. Clashes were also observed yesterday on the eastern outskirts of Harbul and Shaykh Isa.

Both the FSA and YPG have captured considerable chunks of ISIS' northern Aleppo territory in 2016.

In the past 48 hours, with ISIS continuously retreating from the region, Kurdish forces have seized the villages of Hassadjek, Qawl Suruj, Wardiyah, Wasitiyah, and Al-Ghoul, thus safeguarding the southwestern flank of the Shabha Lake.

Formerly, a string of Turkish-backed rebel advances threatened to block YPG fighters from linking up with their Kurdish allies further east at Manbij, a former ISIS stronghold liberated in late August. Currently, some 40 kilometers separate the two Kurdish-held regions of Efrin and Manbij.

Rebels and Kurds are no strangers to tensions in the Aleppo governorate; in April 2016, the YPG paraded 47 bodies of fallen FSA fighters through the city of Efrin after the latter conducted a failed offensive on Kurdish-held villages in the region.

Similarly, in May 2016, the YPG captured Shaykh Isa after somewhat opportunistically attacking the weaker flank of rebel forces who found themselves occupied by fending off several ISIS offensives at neighbouring Mare'.
(by the way nothing new, typical kurdish behavior, by which they managed to triple their inhabitated area=future state boundaries, in a century.... first at our expense, then Assyrian and now Arabs..)

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Turkish artillery, airstrikes target Kurdish forces in Afrin canton
By Paul Antonopoulos - 20/10/2016

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkish-artillery-airstrikes-target-kurdish-forces-afrin-canton/

Over 20 Turkish airstrikes with artillery fire have targeted Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) positions around Janderes and Afrin.

This follows on from Turkish penetration into Idlib province where it razed farms and olives groves.

This was reportedly to prepare for a ground assault on Afrin canton.

Turkey have made no formal announcement that its Euphrates Shirld operation will include Afrin canton.

The SDF are primarily made up of the Kurdish YPG in which Ankara recognizes as a terrorist group.

=======
PS: funny to notice the change of tone towards Turkey in Syrian and Hezbolla related medias.... first in Love before 2011, then suspitious, turning unambigusly hostile after the Su 24 shot, and now more and more sympatetic, once again....

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Turkey Escalates Campaign Against Syrian Kurds
By sarah el deeb and suzan fraser, associated press
BEIRUT — Oct 20, 2016, 7:54 AM ET





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Turkish jets and artillery struck U.S.-backed Syrian Kurdish fighters in northern Syria Thursday, and Turkey's state-run news agency said as many as 200 militiamen were killed, in a major escalation of Turkey's offensive in northern Syria.
A senior commander with the main Syria Kurdish militia confirmed that Turkish jets and artillery were still attacking his forces north of Aleppo, but disputed the casualty count, saying no more than 10 fighters had been killed so far.
Further south, a humanitarian pause announced by Russia for the besieged rebel-held city of Aleppo took effect, and the Syrian military, using loudspeakers, called on residents to evacuate and for gunmen to lay down their weapons. But there was no sign of residents leaving the bombed out districts.
The bombardment was a major escalation by Turkey just as the offensive to recapture the city of Mosul from Islamic State militants in Iraq was intensifying. Iraqi Kurdish forces have carried the brunt of the fighting so far in the Mosul offensive. Turkish troops in Iraq have trained fighters involved in the Mosul offensive, which has been a source of tension with the Iraqi government in recent days.
Kurdish forces in Syria have also carried out most of the fighting against IS and made significant territorial gains, including advances in the last few days against IS militants in Aleppo province, much to Ankara's fury in recent months. Turkey, which is dealing with a homegrown Kurdish insurgency, has been trying to prevent an expansion of Kurdish influence in Syria.
Commander Mahmoud Barkhadan of the People's Protection Units told The Associated Press that Turkish tanks have been shelling the Kurdish-led forces in the area since early Wednesday. He said jets joined overnight and continue to pound his forces. He said more than 30 aerial attacks had taken place so far and that early reports suggest no more than 10 fighters were killed and 20 were wounded. There was no word on civilian casualties yet. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said at least 11 Kurdish fighters were killed and four are missing following the air raids in northern Aleppo.
"We will not back down," Barkhadan said in a telephone interview from the area. He accused Turkey of aiding IS militants by diverting the fight into a Turkish-Kurdish one. "We are fighting Daesh, why are they striking at us?" he asked, using the Arabic acronym for IS.
Barkhadan, a senior commander who led the fight against IS in Kobani in 2015, said Turkish artillery also shelled an area near Afrin, a Kurdish enclave in northwestern Syria. He said his forces have not retreated from newly held territories, but that the Turkish attack allowed IS fighters to wage a counteroffensive. Clashes continued Thursday, the Observatory and Barkhadan said.
Also on Thursday, a humanitarian pause announced by Russia for the besieged rebel-held Aleppo city took effect.
The Syrian military used loudspeakers to urge residents to evacuate and for gunmen to lay down their weapons. Al-Mayadeen TV, a Beirut-based pro-Syrian channel, broadcast Thursday an hour after the pause began from near one of the designated passages. Loudspeakers blared military calls for residents to let the sick and wounded out first, and urging fighters to lay down their guns. The message: "The battle for returning Aleppo to the nation's fold is in its last phases. There is no point in continuing the fight."
Gunfire was heard in the background, and soldiers were seen ducking from bullets before buses, parked on the government-side of Aleppo city, started their engines and left.
Moscow said the pause is to allow civilians and militants safe passage out of the eastern districts of the city — which have been subjected to a tight siege since July and a punishing bombing campaign since mid-September.
The Anadolu Agency, quoting military officials, said the raids were carried out late Wednesday night, attacking 18 targets in the Maarraat Umm Hawsh region in northern Syria. The agency claimed that 160 and 200 militia fighters were killed in the raids. The targets hit were in areas that the Syrian forces recently took over as they pressed ahead with their campaign to drive Islamic State militants from areas north of Aleppo.
The Syrian Kurdish force has been an ongoing source of tension between NATO allies Turkey and the United States.
The U.S. considers the militia group, known as the People's Protection Units or YPG, to be the most effective force in the fight against the Islamic State group in Syria. Turkey says the group is an extension of its own outlawed Kurdish militants who have carried out a series of deadly attacks in Turkey over the past year and considers it to be a terrorist organization.
Ankara has grown increasingly wary as the YPG succeeded in securing large portions of territory along the Syrian-Turkish border. In August, Turkey sent troops and tanks into northern Syria to help Syrian opposition forces drive the Islamic State group away from an area bordering Turkey, and to curb the Syrian Kurdish forces' territorial expansion.
A senior Syrian Kurdish official said the Turkish attack was an aggression on her people's aspiration for self-administration a contiguous territory in the country's north as well as a threat to the U.S-led anti-terrorism fight there.
Ilham Ahmed said Turkish maneuvering threatens a possible campaign against IS in the group's de-facto capital in Raqqa in eastern Syria. Kurdish forces are the main partner in such a fight, but Ankara recently has said it is ready to take part without Kurdish participation. She said Ankara is taking advantage of Washington's preoccupation with its elections to impose their plans in Syria, pushing back the Kurds and advancing in Aleppo.
The U.S is "asked to put a stop and take a clear and direct position regarding this Turkish aggression. Otherwise the project of combatting terrorism may be delayed or totally fail in Syria," she said speaking to The Associated Press from Sulaimaniyah, Iraq.
The Turkish attack came after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said his country would not "wait for terrorists to come and attack" but would go after them before they have the chance to strike.
Anadolu said the 18 Syrian Kurdish targets hit included nine buildings used as headquarters, meetings points, shelters or arms depots as well as five vehicles.
———
Fraser reported from Ankara, Turkey.

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

As the Syrian government and Russia are destroying the FSA, Turkey is destroying the YPG. These are the announced western proxies in Syria and their destruction leads to USA having no leverage. This is going to force USA into making some very tough choices. The whole rebellion was a USA operation from the start but without rebels what will the "Old Man of the West" do? Some options include WW3, do nothing, help ISIS even more (without being able to hide it and disguise it), backstab the Kurds to gain Turkish support .

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Middle East14:59 20.10.2016(updated 15:42 20.10.2016) Get short URL153834541The Russian Defense Ministry said that Russian and Syrian radars proved that Belgian jets struck the Syrian village of Hassajek.The Russian Defense Ministry will unveil flight path details of the Belgian Air Force jets at the time of the deadly strike on a village near Aleppo in Syria, Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said Thursday.

"Russia has effective air defense means to maintain round the clock monitoring of the air situation over almost entire Syria. Besides us, Syrian air defense systems that have been restored over the past year control the airspace. Not to be unfounded, today we will present information about the flight route and the actions of the Belgian Air Force and US Air Force aircraft in Syrian airspace on October 18," Konashenkov said. The Russian Defense Ministry vowed to present detailed information about the operation of Belgian F-16 jets over Syria to Belgian authorities. The Belgian defense minister is either purposefully misleading the international community or the Belgian Defense Ministry jointly with the United States is deceiving the country’s authorities, Konashenkov said. "Either Steven Vandeput is purposefully misleading the Belgian and the international community, or his subordinates jointly with their US colleagues are deceiving the authorities of the Kingdom of Belgium." © Flickr/ Clemens VastersFailure to Condemn Belgian Strike in Syria to Be Treated as Backing for Militants - MoscowThe Russian Defense Ministry said that two aircraft that took off from an airfield in Jordan belonged to the Belgian Air Force. "The aircraft that took off from Salti [Al-Azraq] airbase in Jordan have been immediately identified to be F-16, and their affiliation was established as that of the Belgian Air Force." He specified that Russia registered the takeoff of the jets from Jordan at 01:34 a.m. based on its unique characteristics. At 02:37 a.m. the Belgian jets entered the Syrian airspace. At 03:10 a.m. the F-16 flew 80 km north-east of Raqqa. Afterward, the ministry spokesman said the F-16s patrolled the vicinity of Azaz. "At 03:55 a.m. local time the jets carried out a strike on the Kurdish village of Hassajek in the Aleppo province. As a result of the bombing, two houses were destroyed, six people killed and four wounded in various degrees of severity," Konashenkov added. © Flickr/ Clemens VastersWeddings, Funerals, Hospitals 'Collateral Damage' in US-Led Coalition's Strikes - Russian MoDAt 07:25 a.m. the Belhian F-16 jets left Syrian airspace. "I repeat one more time, these are facts based on data of means of objective control." He emphasized that this the US-led coalition bombs civilians. "This is not the first time the US-led coalition carries out strikes on civilians, while completely denying being guilty for it." "Weddings, funerals, hospitals, police stations, convoys, and even Syrian troops who fight against Daesh terrorists in Deir ez-Zor have been struck." The US side did not notify Russia of the flight of Belgian aircraft on October 18, when Hassajek village was bombed, Konashenkov said. "During exchange of information to avoid air incidents, American colleagues usually inform us about planned flights over Syria. However, we have not received any notification about the Belgian jets' flight on October 18," Konashenkov said. Russian and Syrian combat aircraft did not conduct sorties in the area, the general said. The Russian center for Syrian reconciliation said it had received local reports of an airstrike by Belgian F-16 fighter jets on Kurdish positions in the village of Hassajek. Neither Russian, nor Syrian aircraft were in the area, while the Belgian defense minister dismissed claims of responsibility.

Read more: https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/2...syria-belgium/

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Syrian military threatens to shoot down Turkish warplanes entering Syria illegally
By Leith Fadel - 20/10/2016
Almasdar


DAMASCUS, SYRIA (10:20 P.M.) - The Syrian Ministry of Defense threatened on Thursday night to shoot down any Turkish warplane that illegally enters Syrian airspace without approval from Damascus.

This threat by the Syrian Ministry of Defense comes just hours after the Turkish Air Force carried out several airstrikes in northern Syria.

The Turkish airstrikes specifically targeted the Kurdish forces operating against the Islamic State terrorists in the Aleppo and Al-Raqqa governorates.

Ankara claimed as many as 200 Kurdish fighters were killed during their raids in northern Syria; however, the People's Protection Units (YPG) denied this report.