Regional geopolitics

[Azad]

Re: Regional geopolitics

I disagree. Libya has several points of interest for Russia. If you look at the map you will realize that placing its anti aircraft systems there it will maximize the amount of area covered vs placing them in Egypt. The oil in Libya may not be as valuable as it once was but is still an asset. Lastly taking over what used to be a USA colony has political and psychological effects. This all assuming that the base will become reality.

Russia has its hands full with most of its Western borders. Its first priority is to establish a Mediterranean Naval base. Syria is indebted to Russia for a naval base for at least a century. The location is ideal to its sphere of influence and a perfect place to keep turkey in check. As far Egypt, again the location is ideal for being close to the Suez canal and keeping the shekel boys in check, while selling arms to a decent economy as Egypt that could afford some of the Russian armaments. As you can see, it is re-establishing the old East and West check and balances that was lost after the fall of the Soviet Union. As for Libya, it is in worse shape than Syria. It is a brewing pus of backward Islamists without any leadership. No country will touch it with a ten foot pole, not even its old colonials EU is interested in dealing with it. I personally do not see the importance of a Russian air defense in that part of the Med. As I said, it has its hands full with it western borders, has to deal with a country three times the size of the US and a growing economic sphere by its Eastern borders. Plenty for it to grow, play and enjoy the East than deal with a decaying EU’s arrogance whining and bching asking for discounted energy.

[Azad]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Syrian Army captures first village from Turkish-backed rebels on the outskirts of al-Bab

For some reason the first picture that came to mind was that of AirDogan fuming with veins popping head.

[Hakob]

Re: Regional geopolitics

For some reason the first picture that came to mind was that of AirDogan fuming with veins popping head.

No matter how Putin and Erqaqan try to mend their relations, I still cannot fathom any viable reasons for sustaining that.
Someone please explain it to me, how can it work out in a long term?
I anderstand that both have bargained with the faith of smaller nations like us. Russia has saved Turks at times.
But turkey has done the same deals with Europe and States too. Remember Crimean war? Or the fate of Kurds or Greek/cypriots untill now?
It seems to me this factors are more a result of shrewd, layered and resourceful Turkish diplomacy than goodwill or mutual interests with other powers.
But still I see a big collision soon or later, between Russia and turkey. In allmost all the geopolitical factors their interests oppose each other in larger context.
It is true that we have to always worry of any deal between Moscow and Ankara that can work against our interests, but that can only be a small part of the power's dealings with each other.
But the large overall plans and possible outcome?
This is where we could hit jackpot if we "guess" them right.
Is this honeymoon intended to avoid or delay inevitable clash because both of them are not ready yet?
After all Putin checkmated not only Washington coalition's plans in Syria, but Turkey's in a big time. And while the others have many options to maneuver, turkey found it's Middle East policies against a wall that led to failure of overall foreign policies.
As I remember just a year ago, it was turkey that was pushing washington's hand into active military intervention in Syria. The war rethorics and shooting down Russian airplane, which followed by calling a NATO meeting followed by everybody stepping back and leaving turkey in open.
I know that Moscow could not afford creating a bigger conflict with turkey, drive Syrian efforts to backstage or failure in case turkey pulled it's allies in. It makes perfect sense for Putin to shake hands with Erdoghan.
But as war is turning more and more in Assad's and putin's favor and election of Trump, who signal's thawing with Russia and Europe's dissaray and possibly nationalists winning coming elections, the reasons for raprochment with turkey are diminishing.
Turks are becoming bigger and bigger obstacle. Putin can never make Syria secure while turkey's military and supporters are in there. Without guaranteeing Syrian security Putin can never make it's bases there secure.
Allowing divisions of Syria like Russia was signaling a year ago is obsolete now because it will preserve conflicting entities near those bases which could reignite conflicts supported by too many outsiders at any time in future.
Iran has the same interests too. Without whole Syrian autority on those territories, Iran's opponents will always block it's economic access to Mediterranean and Europe.
In any way you look Turkey is a thorn for both Russia and Iran.
Let's not also forget the damage turkey has done in past 20 years to Russian interests in central Asian former Soviet republics.
If Putin does not neutralize turkey's reach, Russia can never achieve any geopolitical advantage enough to create any viable economyc/political block that it needs desperately to sustain power pole status it dreams of. It is now very abvious that EU has put Russia out of it's doors for a very long time, while US is successfully pulling pacific into it's own influence.
China can never be a basis for any long term growth because it is larger in every factor and is on way of establishing it's own power influence sphere.
Some might say maybe Turkey will become a member of Russia led block. But for that to happen too many historic factors have to be reversed that are maybe impossible to do. For the first time in more than 300 years Russia and Turkey must stop being competitors. Is it possible? Can Turkish and Russian nationalism and shawinism coexist and benefit from each other?
How can Russia have Turkey in its sphere but prevent it from creating a panturkist and pan Islamist majority with all the Turkic population in Central Asia and Russia that could dwarf Russian influence in every way?
After all panturkism and panislamism are the very base of Turkish existence the same way as orthodox Russian identity for Russians.
As the situation changes, I see US needing turkey more than Russia would ever do.
Any ideas?

[Azad]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Is this honeymoon intended to avoid or delay inevitable clash because both of them are not ready yet?

You guess it right! It was NATO that gave the retard the green light for downing the Russian plane. Russia wasn’t going to fall for that trap. Putin knew how to ignore and pretend. When time comes, he will roast the turkey with NATO’s hands. As we can see the turkey table is turned around. A country in disarray, a crumbling economy, constant scoldings from EU, ignored by NATO, mocked by Russia and it cannot gain a small jackaz humping town in Syria.

[Azad]

Re: Regional geopolitics

"U.S. to Financially Support New Voting Process in Armenia
The United States, European Union, the UK, and Germany will join in financially supporting Armenia’s new voting processes and equipment."

http://asbarez.com/157519/u-s-to-financially-support-new-voting-process-in-armenia/

"US election recount: Hillary Clinton supports hand-counting Wisconsin ballots
Hillary Clinton made her first move in the presidential election recount effort on Tuesday, declaring support for an attempt to force Wisconsin authorities to review the state’s 3m votes by hand."

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/29/hillary-clinton-election-recount-wisconsin-jill-stein

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

© REUTERS/Umit Bektas - RTX2MYJV A Turkish army tank drives towards to the border in Karkamis on the Turkish-Syrian border in the southeastern Gaziantep province
The Kremlin said on Wednesday that Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan's statement that his forces in Syria were there to topple President Bashar al-Assad had come as a surprise to Moscow and that it expected an explanation from Ankara.
In a speech on Tuesday, Erdogan condemned what he said was the failure of the United Nations in Syria and cast Turkey's incursion in August, when it sent tanks, fighter jets and special forces over the border, as an act of exasperation.
"We are there to bring justice. We are there to end the rule of the cruel Assad, who has been spreading state terror," Erdogan said.
"The announcement really came as news to us," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call.
"It is a very serious statement and one which differs from previous ones and with our understanding of the situation. We hope that our Turkish partners will provide us with some kind of explanation about this."
(Reporting by Andrew Osborn; Editing by Maria Kiselyova)

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Here is a article regarding Russian/Turkish relations.

30.11.2016 Author: Salman Rafi Sheikh

Despite Rapprochement, Turkey-Russia Relations Remain Uneasy Over Syria
Column: Politics
Region: Middle East
Country: Turkey
While a year has passed since Turkey shot down a Russian jet in Syria and while a few months have passed since the beginning of rapprochement between both countries that includes co-operation in Syria and co-operation in the field of energy, their bi-lateral ties remain uneasy—a situation that largely owes its existence to the still-lingering disagreement over Syria, particularly the future of Assad, and the dual role Turkey happens to be playing there. On the one hand, it has sent its own troops to supposedly fight the Islamic State, and on the other, there are on the ground proxy groups who are receiving support from Turkey. Therefore, while Turkey has repeatedly said that it “respects” Syria’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, it continues to support these “rebel” groups who are in Syria, first and foremost, to oust the Syrian president and to contain the Syrian Kurds—something that not only is a violation of Syrian sovereignty but also pits Turkey against Syria and Russia in the region.
As such, while Turkey rhetorically respects Syria’s territorial integrity, it has still created a “safe zone” inside Syria, in the name of creating a shield against the Islamic State’s incursions into Turkey, and is pushing for bringing more of the Syrian territory under its direct control—a step that is akin to a de facto territorial disintegration of Syria due to a foreign (Turkish) occupation. Hence, the contention that while Turkey may not actually be seeking to create a permanent “zone” in Syria—something that Turkey and Russia have developed some understanding about —Turkey certainly has not changed its mind towards Assad’s future as Syria’s president (read: xTurkish Foreign Minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu recently acknowledged in an interview that Turkey and Russia have disagreement over Assad’s future). This un-changed position makes Turkey more of a NATO ally, which it is by all means, and less of a partner of Syria and Russia against terrorism.
What the current nature of relationship between Turkey and Russia implies is that it is yet to convert itself into a full-fledged strategic alliance. Although we have seen a lot of progress towards normalization, this normalization is of tactical nature only wherein Russia appears to be an important actor for Turkey to neutralize the prospects of Kurds, who are being continuously supported by the US, establishing their own state i.e., Kurdistan. Besides it, Turkey also sees in Russia an opportunity to counter-balance its relations with the US and EU and send them a signal that it does have other ‘avenues of support.’
That Turkey’s rapprochement with Russia is of tactical nature only is also evident from the fact that this rapprochement and normalization has not so far created any rupture in NATO. This normalization is likely to stay what it actually is i.e., normalization and, as such, least likely to turn into a strategic re-alignment, although earlier signs had shown that it was not an impossibility.
What impedes this transformation is, as stated above, Turkey’s contradictory dual role in Syria, where it is carrying on NATO’s agenda of ousting Assad and where it is also seemingly targeting IS along with Russia and Syria.
What such a position further implies is that Turkey is tapping into both blocks to take advantage of its geographical location and achieve all of its major objectives i.e., oust Assad and roll back Kurds to other side of Euphrates river. While Turkey does aim at both targets, this perusal puts it in a conflicting position vis-à-vis Syria. Some recent incidents strongly indicate the potential of this conflicting position to transform into yet another war.
For instance, the advance by largely Turkmen and Arab rebels backed by Turkey towards al-Bab, the last urban stronghold of Islamic State in the northern Aleppo countryside, potentially pits them against both Kurdish fighters and Syrian government forces, leading to clashes between them.
Al-Bab is of particular strategic importance to Turkey because Kurdish-dominated militias have also been pursuing a campaign to seize it. Ankara is determined to prevent Kurdish forces from joining up cantons they control along the Turkish border. Turkey is backing the Syrian rebels with troops, tanks and artillery, as well as reconnaissance flights along the border.
However, while Turkey is out there to prevent the Kurds from having any territory under their control in Syria, Syria itself is not ready to ‘host’ Turkish troops on its territory. This has created the threat of direct clashes occurring between them. In fact, such incidents have already started to occur.
On last Friday, the Turkish military said that Thursday, November 24, air strike, which killed three of its soldiers, was thought to have been carried out by the Syrian air force. It would be the first time Turkish soldiers have died at the hands of Syrian government forces. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan discussed this attack on Turkish troops in Syria with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Friday as Turkish-backed rebels pressed an offensive to take the Syrian city of al-Bab, a report from Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Agency stated.
While no major dispute of diplomatic and military nature has so far been reported developing between Turkey and Russia, this incident unambiguously underlines the fundamental disagreement both have in Syria.
Therefore, it is not energy-co-operation merely that would determine the future of their bi-lateral relations. While co-operation in this field required normalization, which they have already achieved, it is also quite clear today that the transformation of this normalization into a strategic realignment depends upon how smoothly both countries resolve their differences over Syria. In the coming months, the progress of the operation, as well as the battle for Aleppo, will become the decisive points in setting the trajectory of their bilateral relations.
Salman Rafi Sheikh, research-analyst of International Relations and Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

http://journal-neo.org/2016/11/30/despite-rapprochement-turkey-russia-relations-remain-uneasy-over-syria/

[Hakob]

Re: Regional geopolitics

This guy, Salman Rafi Sheikh looks only into Syrian problem while talking about Russo-Turkish relations.
This makes it a very shallow and simplistic analysis.
But if other issues or conflicts between those countries are taken into account, like Crimea, Central Asia and others, where turkey has fundamental ideology and policies opposing Russia, then possibilities of rapprochement are even lesser.

[Azad]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Mike Pompeo, Donald Trump’s pick to be director of the CIA. His tweet

.@JZarif & #Iran govt about as democratic as that of @RT_Erdogan -- both are totalitarian Islamist dictatorships.

https://twitter.com/repmikepompeo/status/754138970359861248

[Azad]

Re: Regional geopolitics

^^^ looks like our region will be under tension. erdogan and Iran have to adjust to pleases the shekel boys policy.
Reason for our new joining forces agreements with Russia. Georgia and azerbaijan will be in major Western games. aliyev's future is in question as well.