Regional geopolitics

[Vrej1915]

Ալիեւը զիջումների է գնացել. Նրան կներե՞ն

• • ՆԱԻՐԱ ՀԱՅՐՈՒՄՅԱՆ, Մեկնաբան
  • Քաղաքականություն - 11 Սեպտեմբերի 2017

Սեպտեմբերի 11-ն Ադրբեջանի նախագահ Իլհամ Ալիեւն սկսել է համաներումով: Սկզբում ազատ է արձակել 2015 թվականի նարդարանյան դեպքերով ձերբակալված 14 հոգու: Հետո տեղեկություն է տարածվել, որ Ալիեւը ներել է բլոգեր Ալեքսանդր Լապշինին: Ավելի ուշ ադրբեջանական լրատվամիջոցները գրեցին, որ Ալիեւը հրահանգել է փոխել Թուրան գործակալության՝ վերջերս ձերբակալված գլխավոր խմբագիր Մեհման Ալիեւի խափանման միջոցը:



Հերթը կհասնի՞ Իլգար Մամեդովին, որին Ալիեւը, ըստ երեւույթին, համարում է գլխավոր հակառակորդ: Դեռ պարզ չէ, սակայն ակնհայտ է, որ անցյալ շաբաթ Ալիեւի վրա այնպիսի ճնշում է գործադրվել, որը ստիպել է նրան հիշել «մարդասիրության» մասին:



Ալիեւի «մարդասիրությանը» մի շարք իրադարձություններ են նախորդել: 11 միջազգային լրատվամիջոցներում հետաքննության արդյունքներ են հրապարակվել, որոնք վկայում են, որ Ալիեւի վարչակարգը կաշառել է եվրոպացի պաշտոնյաների ու լրագրողների: Բուլղարիան հետաքննություն է սկսել ՅՈՒՆԵՍԿՕ-ի ղեկավար Իրինա Բոկովայի ամուսնու գործով: Այսինքն, կասկածի տակ են հայտնվել անգամ ՅՈՒՆԵՍԿՕ-ի քայլերն ադրբեջանական ժառանգության հարցում:



Եվրամիությունը կոչ է արել Ադրբեջանին հետաքննել բոլոր նշված փաստերը: Այնուհետեւ ԱՄՆ Կոնգրեսի հանձնաժողովն ընդունել է Ադրեբջանի դեմ պատժամիջոցներ սահմանելու առաջարկը:



«Ադրբեջան» պաշտոնաթերթում անմիջապես հոդված է տպագրվել, որում սպառնալիք կար, որ եթե Բաքվի դեմ պատժամիջոցներ ընդունվեն, ավելի շատ «արեւմտամետ» գործիչներ են ձերբակալվելու, որոնք խարխլում են պետականության հիմքերը, եւ վերանայվելու են Արեւմուտքի հետ հարաբերությունները:



Ի՞նչ է կատարվել հանգստյան օրերին եւ ի՞նչը ստիպեց Ալիեւին երկուշաբթի ազատ արձակել շատերին, որոնց Արեւմուտքը պահանջում էր ազատել: Ալիեւին ասել են, որ պատժամիջոցներն ավելի քան երբեւէ իրակա՞ն են, եւ դա կարող հանգեցնել միջոցների սառեցմանց ու վարչակարգի ուժասպառ լինելու՞ն:



Ակնհայտ է, որ Ադրբեջանի վրա աննախադեպ ճնշում է գործադրվել: Հարցն այն է, թե արդյոք ճնշում գործադրողները բավարարված են Ալիեւի քայլերից: 10-12 մարդու ազատ արձակումը բավարա՞ր է Ալիեւին «ներելու» համար: Թե՞ նա ստիպված է լինելու այլ զիջումների էլ գնալ:

[Serjik]

Thank God for Russia if it warent for them there would have been another genocide of Christians and Armenians in Syria.

[Vrej1915]

Ադրբեջանի պաշտպանության նախարարն առաջին անգամ մեկնել է Իսրայել

Posted on Սեպտեմբեր 11, 2017 by Տարոն Հովհաննիսյան


Սեպտեմբերի 11-ին Ադրբեջանի պաշտպանության նախարար, գեներալ-գնդապետ Զաքիր Հասանովը մեկնել է Իսրայել՝ Թել Ավիվ։ Հասանովը պետք է հանդիպի Իսրայելի պաշտպանության նախարարի հետ, այցելի ռազմարդյունաբերական ձեռնարկություններ ևն։ Այս մասին հայտնում է Ադրբեջանի ՊՆ կայքը։

Հաղորդագրությունում նշվում է, որ Զաքիր Հասանովը նաև կայցելի Իսրայելի ԶՈւ րամանատարական և ղեկավարման կենտրոն, պաշտպանական արդյունաբերության ոլորոտում գործունեություն շավալող տարբեր ձեռնարկություններ։

Հիշեցնենք, որ երեք տարի առաջ՝ 2014 թ․, Հասանովն ընդունել էր Բաքու ժամանած Իսրայելի պաշտպանության նախարար Մոշե Յալոնի գլխավորած պատվիրակությանը։ Ինքը Հասանովը դեռ Իսրայել պաշտոնական այց չէր կատարել՝ 2013թ․ Ադրբեջանի ՊՆ պաշտոնում նշանակվելուց ի վեր։

Նշենք, որ մասնավորապես վերջին տարիներին Իսրայելի և Ադրբեջանի միջև սերտ ռազմատեխնիկական համագործակցություն կա, մասնավորապես՝ անօդաչու թռչող սարքերի գնման ոլորտում։ Բացի սարքեր գնելուց, Ադրբեջանի տարածքում կա նաև ԱԹՍ-ների հավաքման համատեղ ադրբեջանա-իսրայելական գործարան, ինչպես նաև նավերի հավաքման համատեղ արտադրամաս ևն։

Սական վերջին շրջանում այդ համագործակցությունում որոշակի բացեր երևացին։ Դա կապված է իսրայելական ընկերության մասնագետների՝ հայկական բանակի դիրքերին Ադրբեջանի «խնդրանքով» հարվածելու միջադեպի հետ։ Ինչպես արդեն հայտնել ենք, նշված միջադեպի արդյունքում Իսրայելի ՊՆ-ն կասեցրել է Ադրբեջանին մեկ տեսակի մահապարտ անօդաչու վաճառելու արտոնագիրը։

Չի բացառվում, որ Հասանովի այցի օրակարգում նաև վերջին ամսում ի հայտ եկած խնդիրների քննարկումը կարող է լինել։

Իսրայելական արտադրության Orbiter 1K «մահապարտ» ԱԹՍ-ի արդբեջանական տարբերակ

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[Vrej1915]

Splitting up Syria is not purpose of de-escalation zones: Russian FM

By News Desk
-
11/09/2017
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov speaks during a meeting with his Egyptian counterpart in Moscow, on March 16, 2016. ©AFP
The de-escalation zones in Syria are temporary, and nobody is going to use them to split the country into enclaves, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Sunday after negotiations with the Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir.

“The purpose of the de-escalation zones is to stop the violence,” the Russian minister said. “It is not a permanent measure, and nobody who agree those zones has an intention of keeping them for good, thus in fact having long-term enclaves in the Syrian territory.”

“The agreement is their term is six months, and it is clear already the result is evident, the ceasefire is generally observed,” Lavrov added. The purpose of the de-escalation zones is “to begin spreading across Syria the space, where ceasefire is observed, where peaceful life is developing.”

“A very important element of the program to organize the de-escalation zones is beginning of dialogue via the national reconciliation committees,” he said. “Inside those zones there is interest to having the committees to begin talks with the government.”

“This would be a very important addition to the efforts to have in Geneva a direct dialogue at the negotiation table under auspices of the UN,” Lavrov said. “If we establish local reconciliation processes in the regions, I believe, the work would move quicker, more effective, and the space, where ceasefire is observed and where the national dialogue emerges, will be expanding to involve eventually entire Syria.”

De-escalation zones in Syria

At the Astana meeting on Syria in May, the guarantors of the Syrian ceasefire (Russia, Iran and Turkey) signed a memorandum on setting up de-escalation zones in the war-torn country.

The de-escalation zones include the Idlib Province, some parts of its neighboring areas in the Latakia, Hama and Aleppo Provinces north of the city of Homs, Eastern Ghouta, as well as the Daraa and al-Quneitra Provinces in southern Syria.

Starting from May 6, military activities and aircraft flights in the de-escalation zones are banned. Three de-escalation zones have already been established, while the fourth zone in the Idlib Province is being set up.

The document’s term is six months, with an optional further extension.

Riyadh’s efforts in organization of Syrian opposition’s delegation

Russia support Saudi Arabia’s efforts in organization of the Syrian opposition’s delegation for talks with Damascus, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Sunday after talks with the Saudi Arabian counterpart Adel al-Jubeir.

“We support actively the efforts of the Saudi counterparts in uniting various groups of the opposition – Riyadh, Moscow, Cairo – in organization of the opposition’s team for talks with the government in Geneva,” Lavrov said. “A similar work continues in Astana.”

“My counterparts and I share the position that when this union happens, we should stimulate everyone on the delegation to work on a platform, which would be aimed at the purpose: the way towards settlement is settled with the Syrians,” he said. “As for the adherence to political methods in settlement of conflicts, we do not have discrepancies with Saudi Arabia.”

The Russian foreign minister continued saying that in fighting terrorism “force methods cannot be avoided.”

“However, for the final settlement along with defeat of the terrorists, of course we should focus on processes of political settlement, which mean mandatory involvement in the inclusive dialogue of all the ethnic-confessional groups,” Lavrov said.


More:

http://tass.com/politics/964859

[Vrej1915]

Race to Albukamal: Syrian Army planning to block US expansion

By Leith Fadel
-
11/09/2017

BEIRUT, LEBANON (8:10 A.M.) – The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) launched their long-awaited Deir Ezzor offensive this past weekend, targeting the northern countryside of this province from their positions near the Al-Hasakah Governorate.

The primary objective for the SDF is to reach the border-city of Albukamal, which has long been an Islamic State (ISIL) stronghold in the Deir Ezzor Governorate.

However, the SDF taking control of Albukamal creates a problem for the Syrian government, as Albukamal is home to the most important border-crossing into Iraq’s Al-Anbar Governorate.

To counteract the U.S.’ expansion, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has expedited its Deir Ezzor offensive by lifting the siege on the military airport and shifting their attention to the occupied districts in the provincial capital.

The Syrian Arab Army is now planning to cross the Euphrates River from the northern outskirts of the provincial capital in order to impede the SDF’s progress to Albukamal.

The Syrian Army has the boats needed to make the amphibious landing and they possess a much larger force to take the Islamic State stronghold, should they reach Albukamal before the SDF.

With the battle of Raqqa City still raging, it is unlikely that the SDF can dedicate enough military personnel to take Albukamal from the Islamic State forces in the coming months.

[Vrej1915]

US-Russian pincer for ISIS in Euphrates Valley

The US and Russia have just agreed to each provide air support for a conjoined pincer movement to pin the Islamic State down in its last strongholds of Abu Kamal and Mayadin in the Euphrates Valley, DEBKAfile reports from exclusive intelligence sources.
The number of jihadists assembled there, mainly from Mosul and Raqqa, is estimated at 10,000.
The new US-Russian understanding, our military sources say, provides a roadmap for twin offensives - one led by Syrian regime, Hizballah and pro-Iranian militia armies; the second, by the pro-US Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the Kurdish YPG and the Syrian Arab Shammari Sanadid Brigade. The first will fight under Russian air cover and the second under US air support. The tribesmen are fighting with the blessing of Saudi Arabia.The two columns will advance through two separate corridors.
The Russian-backed formation will head east from the town of Ash-Shula along the M20 highway. En route, they are tasked with completing the capture of Deir ez-Zour, after breaking through the ISIS siege last week, and mopping up ISIS fighters outside the town. After that, they will head northwest to their final destination, the border town of Abu Kamal.
The US-backed force will set out from the northern Syrian Kurdish province of Hasakeh and push on to the Khabur River, a tributary of the Euphrates. (See map.) After crossing the Khabur, they will head along the Euphrates bank for the same destination, Abu Kamal.
Since the Russian and US air forces will both be operating in a very tight space, the US war room at the CENTCOM commander center in Baghdad and the Russian Hmeimim Air base in Syrian Latakia, will be coordinating aerial operations closely enough to prevent accidental collisions.
An agreement was reached between the US and the Syrian regime to drop references to “de-escalation zones” and instead talk about “deconfliction.”
Although the two powers have reached an unprecedented measure of accord for working together with their respective allies and proxies for a concerted effort to wipe out the last ISIS strongholds along the Syrian-Iraqi border, nonetheless certain areas are still unresolved:
1. Which of the two will take charge of the oil fields of Deir ez-Zour? Control of this oil-rich region region is a valuable strategic prize for the winner.
2. Which of the two formations will actually lead the battles for Abu Kamal and Mayadin?
3. And which of the two will be left in control of the Syrian-Iraqi border running through the Euphrates Valley?
Leaving any of these these points up in the air is a recipe for major clashes between the pro-Russian and pro-US forces which have banded together pro tem against the Islamic State’s last stand.

[Vrej1915]

IDF drill and new Hizballah tactics at Deir ez-Zour
06/09/2017
debka


By Wednesday, Sept. 6, day three of the big IDF exercise for war with Hizballah - after the Syrian army and two Hizballah brigades, with massive Russian air and missile support, had broken the three-year ISIS siege of Deir ez-Zour - it was evident that Hizballah was fighting a different war from the scenario tens of thousands of Israeli troops were practicing in the north.
DEBKAfile’s military sources have no doubt that without this Russian support, the Syrians and Hizballah would have found it much harder to knock down ISIS defenses, before advancing into the long-beleaguered eastern town, free the wretched population and reunite with the force holding out in the trapped Syrian airbase.
Russian jets were there to hit any ISIS fighters emerging to refortify damaged lines and rebuild military positions and prevent manpower moving between points. The defense ministry in Moscow confirmed that a Russian warship in the Mediterranean had fired Kalibr cruise missiles to destroy an ISIS communications and command center, ammo depots and an armored vehicle repair shop. The ISIS occupiers of Deir ez-Zour had no air defense missiles for hampering Russian air strikes.
This Deir ez-Zour operation counts nonetheless as a major victory for the Syrian ruler, Bashar Assad, and his army, although there is still more fighting ahead in the east, as the defeated ISIS withdraws eastward towards another of its strongholds, the Syrian-Iraqi border town of Abu Kamal.

HIzballah certainly shares in this victory against ISIS in ten days of fighting .It is not its first.

Last week, the clash of arms against ISIS and other Islamist groups in the Qalamoun Mountains on the Syrian-Lebanese border ended in their virtual surrender and withdrawal.Notwithstanding vehement denials, there was coordination between the Syrian, Lebanese and Hizballah forces battling ISIS enclaves on both sides of that border, with US and British special forces also taking part. It was this virtual coalition which tipped the balance and led to the operation’s successful conclusion.

We are therefore seeing Hizballah emeging as an army, which has gained valuable combat experience in five years of fighting shoulder to shoulder with the Syrian army and foreign Shiite militias. This experience was enhanced in recent weeks by close military conjunction with two world powers, Russia and the United States.

The IDF drill which has another seven days to go is geared to fighting a war triggered by a Hizballah invasion of northern Israel from Lebanon. Is that scenario still realistic in the light of that experience and the latest events on two Syrian battles?

Most unlikely, say our military sources. They note that, building on its gains and experience in the Syrian war arena, Hizballah may well choose a quite different tactic, e.g, an attempt to draw Israeli forces into Lebanon and then Syria by opening a second front against the IDF from there. In Syria, Hizballah can count on the support of the Syrian army and pro-Iranian Shiite militias - an alliance which has proved itself in Syria - whereas an invasion of northern Israel would find Hizballah fighting alone and surrounded by Israeli forces.
In the remaining seven days of the exercise, the IDF still has a chance to update its scenario.

[Vrej1915]

Azerbaijan’s Last Independent Media Company to Suspend Operations

August 25, 2017 - 10:36am, by Bradley Jardine


A campaign poster by the Human Rights House Network calling attention to the arrest of Mehman Aliyev, the director of Azerbaijan's only independent media outlet.

The director of Azerbaijan's Turan Information Agency was arrested and ordered detained for three months as part of an ongoing investigation into alleged tax evasion and abuse of power by the country's only independent news agency. As a result the agency said it is suspending operations as of September 1.

The arrest follows owner and director Mehman Aliyev’s August 18 announcement that Azerbaijan’s tax authorities had frozen Turan’s bank account as part of a criminal probe launched against the media company earlier in the month.

Human rights groups have raised concern about the legitimacy of the charges and point to the Azerbaijani government’s broad crackdown on independent media and civil society.

“The authorities are stepping up the pressure on Turan because they have been unable to force it to cooperate,” said Johann Bihr, the head of the Eastern Europe and Central Asia desk of Reporters Without Borders. “Mehman Aliyev is one of journalism’s pioneers in Azerbaijan. His only crime is to have headed the country’s last independent media outlet. We demand his immediate released and the withdrawal of all the politically motivated charges against Turan” he said.

[Vrej1915]

Azerbaijan Sues French Journalists, In France, For Defamation

September 5, 2017 - 1:42pm, by Bradley Jardine


Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev, at an event handing over free apartments to government-friendly journalists. Azerbaijan has sued two French journalists for defamation for calling the country a "dictatorship." (photo: president.az)


Two French reporters appeared in a Parisian court on September 5 to face charges that they defamed Azerbaijan by calling it a “dictatorship.”

One of the journalists, Elise Lucet, called Azerbaijan “one of the world’s harshest dictatorships” in a “Cash Investigation” program broadcast on the France 2 television network in September 2015. The other, Laurent Richard, referred to the state as a dictatorship during a radio interview with France Info following his May 2014 arrest during a reporting trip in Baku.

The head of the Reporters Without Borders (RSF) Eastern Europe and Central Asia desk, Johann Bihr, testified on the journalists' behalf, as did Azerbaijani journalist Agil Khalil and husband-and-wife human rights defenders Leyla Yunus and Arif Yunus. Khalil fled to France in 2008 after escaping several murder attempts in Azerbaijan. Leyla and Arif Yunus fled to the Netherlands after being imprisoned for 18 months.

In a release ahead of the trial, RSF called the suit an attempt “to export censorship to France.”

“By suing two French journalists who just used their right to free speech, the Azerbaijani government is demonstrating its complete inability to tolerate criticism, said ”RSF secretary-general Christophe Deloire.

Meanwhile, former French parliamentarian Jean-Francois Marcel has agreed to testify for Azerbaijan’s government. Marcel is on the board of directors of the Association of Friends of Azerbaijan, which is partly financed by Baku.

French media called the case “unprecedented” as it appeared to be the first time French media were sued in France by another country.

The suit recalled a similar one in 2011, when Lola Karimova, the daughter of then Uzbekistan President Islam Karimov, sued the French news website Rue89 in 2011 for calling her a “dictator’s daughter.” But Karimova then was suing as a private individual. She lost the case, with the court ruling that the article in question was “entirely true to reality.”

It was a bad PR day overall for Azerbaijan, as the waves from a blockbuster investigation published the night before continued to ripple. On September 4, the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) released a damning report on Azerbaijan’s $2.9 billion money-laundering schemes in the UK. In response, Baku blocked access to the OCCRP’s website on September 5.

Hikmet Hajiyev, the spokesman for Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, then took to twitterto suggest the reports are part of a “Soros funded fake news and disinformation campaign” to discredit the government of Azerbaijan.

Hajiyev also attacked Giorgi Gogia, the South Caucasus Director at Human Rights Watch, after he shared a Washington Post op-ed on Baku’s crackdown on independent media, accusing him of orchestrating a “disinformation campaign against Azerbaijan.”

The Azerbaijani authorities have also been carefully dismantling domestic media. The Turan news agency, the country’s last independent media outlet, became the latest victim in August of this year. Its director has been jailed and its bank accounts have been frozen, forcing it to suspend all activities. Access to all the main independent news websites is blocked.

At least 16 of Azerbaijan’s journalists, bloggers and media workers are currently imprisoned according to RSF.

[Vrej1915]

Azerbaijan: State Low-Cost Airline Replaced By Lower-Cost Airline

September 8, 2017 - 8:15am, by Matthew Kupfer


Crew from Buta Airways, Azerbaijan's new state-run low-cost airline, pose in front of the airline's first aircraft, an Embraer E190. (photo: Buta Airways)

The Azerbaijani capital of Baku may be associated with oil wealth and posh, Emirates-style skyscrapers, but a new airline is focusing on another reality: economic crisis.

On September 1, Azerbaijan low-coster Buta Airways launched its maiden flight, ferrying a group of local journalists from Baku’s Heydar Aliyev International Airport to Tbilisi on a promotional tour.

Buta is in fact Azerbaijan’s second attempt at a budget airline, as it replaces the country’s previous low-cost airline, AZALJet, which stopped selling tickets in July. The exact reason for the switch remains unclear, but it appears that one low-cost airline is being replaced by an even lower-cost airline.

No frills tickets on Buta, without checked baggage, start at 29 euros (around $35). Compare that to AZALJet’s old starting fare of 49 euros ($59).

And whereas AZALJet offered a fairly broad selections of routes, including some beyond the immediate Eurasian region, Buta is starting slower. Its fleet of just eight Brazilian Embraer E190 jets will begin with four flights a week, before increasing to ten by the end of October.

Many destinations are old faithfuls. Besides flights to Istanbul, Antalya, Tehran, and Tbilisi, the airline will offer a large number of destinations in Russia — Moscow, St. Petersburg, Kazan, and Mineralny Vody, as well as a flight between Azerbaijan’s second city, Ganja, and the Russian capital.

On the surface, Buta’s launch comes as part of a continued drive by the PR-hungry country to develop tourism and the airline industry. In September 2014, Heydar Aliev Airport opened a state-of-the-art Flight Operations Control Center in preparation for the European Games, held in Baku in June 2015. The Control Center’s dispatchers all received licensing from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration. Later that month, Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) launched its first direct flight between Baku and New York City.

This year, Azerbaijan began allowing citizens and residents of 94 countries to order electronic visas online. As of this month, the e-visas are delivered in only three hours. Encouraging low-costers to fly to Azerbaijan has also long been part of this general tourism push.

But economic crisis remains the elephant in the room. Buta’s launch clearly represents a conscious adjustment to declining fortunes.

Since 2014, falling oil prices and Western sanctions have led to a financial crisis in Russia and the collapse of the Russian ruble. War and a heavy debt burden have also left Ukraine’s economy in shambles. (There, Irish low-coster Ryanair’s decision not to fly to the country sparked widespread anger among Ukrainians unable to afford other flights to Europe.) Falling oil prices have also plunged the Azerbaijani economy into economic crisis and sent the country’s currency, the manat, into a tailspin.

Buta appears to be focusing its efforts where it believes profit is guaranteed. In the first half of 2017, Russia was the number one source of tourists to Azerbaijan, the Trend news agency reported. Russia also fielded over 400 thousand tourists from Azerbaijan as of July this year, the TurStat analytical agency calculated. Meanwhile, Ukraine remains hungry for affordable flights, and Turkey and Georgia are old favorites.

What once was low-cost in the region no longer appears so low.