Announcement

Collapse

Forum Rules (Everyone Must Read!!!)

1] What you CAN NOT post.

You agree, through your use of this service, that you will not use this forum to post any material which is:
- abusive
- vulgar
- hateful
- harassing
- personal attacks
- obscene

You also may not:
- post images that are too large (max is 500*500px)
- post any copyrighted material unless the copyright is owned by you or cited properly.
- post in UPPER CASE, which is considered yelling
- post messages which insult the Armenians, Armenian culture, traditions, etc
- post racist or other intentionally insensitive material that insults or attacks another culture (including Turks)

The Ankap thread is excluded from the strict rules because that place is more relaxed and you can vent and engage in light insults and humor. Notice it's not a blank ticket, but just a place to vent. If you go into the Ankap thread, you enter at your own risk of being clowned on.
What you PROBABLY SHOULD NOT post...
Do not post information that you will regret putting out in public. This site comes up on Google, is cached, and all of that, so be aware of that as you post. Do not ask the staff to go through and delete things that you regret making available on the web for all to see because we will not do it. Think before you post!


2] Use descriptive subject lines & research your post. This means use the SEARCH.

This reduces the chances of double-posting and it also makes it easier for people to see what they do/don't want to read. Using the search function will identify existing threads on the topic so we do not have multiple threads on the same topic.

3] Keep the focus.

Each forum has a focus on a certain topic. Questions outside the scope of a certain forum will either be moved to the appropriate forum, closed, or simply be deleted. Please post your topic in the most appropriate forum. Users that keep doing this will be warned, then banned.

4] Behave as you would in a public location.

This forum is no different than a public place. Behave yourself and act like a decent human being (i.e. be respectful). If you're unable to do so, you're not welcome here and will be made to leave.

5] Respect the authority of moderators/admins.

Public discussions of moderator/admin actions are not allowed on the forum. It is also prohibited to protest moderator actions in titles, avatars, and signatures. If you don't like something that a moderator did, PM or email the moderator and try your best to resolve the problem or difference in private.

6] Promotion of sites or products is not permitted.

Advertisements are not allowed in this venue. No blatant advertising or solicitations of or for business is prohibited.
This includes, but not limited to, personal resumes and links to products or
services with which the poster is affiliated, whether or not a fee is charged
for the product or service. Spamming, in which a user posts the same message repeatedly, is also prohibited.

7] We retain the right to remove any posts and/or Members for any reason, without prior notice.


- PLEASE READ -

Members are welcome to read posts and though we encourage your active participation in the forum, it is not required. If you do participate by posting, however, we expect that on the whole you contribute something to the forum. This means that the bulk of your posts should not be in "fun" threads (e.g. Ankap, Keep & Kill, This or That, etc.). Further, while occasionally it is appropriate to simply voice your agreement or approval, not all of your posts should be of this variety: "LOL Member213!" "I agree."
If it is evident that a member is simply posting for the sake of posting, they will be removed.


8] These Rules & Guidelines may be amended at any time. (last update September 17, 2009)

If you believe an individual is repeatedly breaking the rules, please report to admin/moderator.
See more
See less

Regional geopolitics

Collapse
X
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Re: Regional geopolitics

    Originally posted by londontsi View Post
    Mher

    I think your assessment of the economies of the US and the UK are far too optimistic.

    The debt levels and the burden on their economies is unsustainable, ( No different than Greece).

    The interest on those debts is higher than Government income, tax receipts etc.
    This has been the case for a number of years.
    Therefore payment of those debts is impossible despite resorting to printing money at unprecedented levels.
    Incidentally if we resorted to paying our way in the lifestyle we are accustomed to, we would be put in prison for many years.

    On a more serious note - Russia, China and a number of other countries who are seeing this are trying to decouple themselves from this fraud.
    The answer of the US is a variant of the Libya scenario.
    You may wish to research why Libya and Gadhafi went the way they did.

    You need to see the CU from this perspective.

    .
    That is why western countries are eyeing so hungrily on Russia's or other former soviet block countries resources. To delay the inevitable collapse. These new countries have to share the debt by buying American debt(dollar). And whatever they have will be turned into western corporate value by owning or outright dismantling. Plus population integration into western consumer market. All this will give some more time. Incidentally, the latest difficulties in US budgeting are not about balancing it. The problems are about raising debt ceiling in order to pay debt interest. It has begun spiraling out of controll That in turn makes it harder to keep other countries in dollar market. Some countries are quitting dollar altogether. At the beginning euro was thought to be better, but it is going the way of dollar because of similar reasons. Especially after 2008 real estate/ banking fiasco. Also eurozone has enough internal problems to be unreliable.
    Last edited by Hakob; 03-06-2014, 12:46 PM.

    Comment


    • Re: Regional geopolitics

      Like to add that the incredible efforts by west to bring and hold all the countries into western led world financial system is to enrich their own financial systems and in case of crisis soften or avoid any collapse. By total domination financial blows can be diverted to as many other countries as possible, thus, keeping the core anglosaxon west dominant and above water. In other words, countries like in Middle East, South America, Africa or orient will suffer most of western collapse quakes, but dollar or euro printing countries will suffer less. This is the 21st century colonialism. Exept it is done in the name of spreading democracy. The countries that were colonialists in 19th century, are gathering themselves in the new order. They will still be the beneficiaries of this order. So if anybody thinks that Russia is behaving as colonialist, should remember that just like in 19th century, it is countering western one with its own, in order not to become a colony itself. In the 19th century colonialists were disguising their dominance and plunder as bringing civilization to those savages in Middle East, Africa, orient and elsewhere to whitewash their actions, now they do the same under disguise of democracy.
      Last edited by Hakob; 03-06-2014, 01:39 PM.

      Comment


      • Re: Regional geopolitics

        Originally posted by UrMistake View Post
        Haykakan while myself im more pro CU i live in EU after all and i know what kind of bullxxxx they are feeding us here also , they criticized the GOLDEN DANW a nazi party here in greece ..but they legitimize nazi government with 7 ministries in its hand in Ukraine ..and thats ok for them .

        Dont mention their hypocrisy at all.

        I just want to ask u not make it personal in this forum . i like to read ur posts also Mhers and we all can make our own assumptions of eachother, i would ask u to refrain personal attacks and make your posts distinguishable with spaces between commas that would make it more readable .
        I agree with UrMistake.
        Yor words (Haykakan) certainly make it sound personal & insulting.
        You (Haykakan) so no, it's not personal & you have no choice but to discribe it as you have.
        I disagree.
        Read the posts by you,Vrej, Londontsi,Mher, Hakob, & UrMistake. Found each one of you made valid points. But it is you alone (Haykakan) who uses insulting analogys or discriptions when pointing out your disagreements with the others.
        You say you have no choice. Nonsense. You do have many choices, but you choose not to seek them.
        Only Vrej has spoken of the waters of Hayastan with facts and figures and informed of the paramount importance thereof. Only Vrej has informed with education of the mineral situation and it's meaning.
        Every other contributor has said things of merit.
        Your points are well founded Haykakan, but your belittement of Vrej, Mher, etc is not well founded.
        Your and educator. It is up to you to rise to the occasion and show how to disagree and present facts without being rude.
        Bringing all of us together at the table is what this world fears the most I think.
        Dividing us is what this world desires to do to us.
        Please present your valid points and disagreements without the accusation that someone is stupid.
        It seems to me you and Vrej are talking past one another.
        People can disagree and adamantly disagree without insults.
        And that's for sure.
        Artashes
        HARK

        Comment


        • Re: Regional geopolitics

          Turkey: Walking a Tightrope over Crimea
          March 7, 2014 -
          by Dorian Jones


          The Russian-Ukrainian crisis over Crimea is forcing Turkey into a delicate balancing act: Ankara feels a need to be seen as a protector of the peninsula’s Tatar minority, yet it does not want to vex Russia’s paramount leader Vladimir Putin in a way that complicates Turkish-Russian economic arrangements.

          There are abundant reasons why Turkey is taking a close interest in Crimean developments. Crimea operated as a vassal khanate of Ottoman Empire from the 1470s until 1783. In addition, Turks are bound by a strong cultural connection to Crimean Tatars, an ethnic minority group that comprises roughly 15 percent of Crimea’s population. The number of ethnic Tatars
          now living in Turkey -- most of them descendants of those who left Crimea following its 1783 annexation by the Russian Empire -- is estimated in the hundreds of thousands.

          For all the historical and cultural factors in play, though, it may be domestic political considerations that are the primary factor in shaping the government’s posture on the Tatar-Crimea issue. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been seriously wounded politically in recent weeks by allegations of large-scale corruption within his inner circle and family. He is now scrambling to reinforce his political base as he prepares for his first electoral test since the corruption scandal broke, local elections slated for March 30.

          Since Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) draws significant grassroots support from nationalist elements, top government officials are playing up Ankara’s role as a defender of Crimean Tatar interests amid Russia’s armed occupation of the peninsula, which has belonged to Ukraine since 1954.

          “Don't let it cross your mind that our prime minister and president will be indifferent to any issue affecting our people of kin in Crimea and anywhere in the world,” Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu on March 3 assured Tatar association leaders living in Turkey.

          Davutoğlu’s comments came a day after hundreds staged a protest in the capital, Ankara, while smaller demonstrations were held in other Turkish cities that have large Tatar communities. “Today, what's happening in Crimea is terrifying all of us,” said Zafer Karatay, the Turkish representative of the Crimea-based Crimean Tatar National Parliament, CNN Türk reported.

          Already hard-pressed by the fallout from the ongoing corruption scandal, as well as lingering resentment relating to the Gezi Park protests last summer, it could be politically crippling for Erdogan’s government to be deemed at home to be soft on issues regarding Turkic kin.

          “They [AKP leaders] don’t want to be criticized by the nationalist constituency for having failed to protect the Tatars,” Sinan Ülgen, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, said of the Turkish government. “It cannot be seen to be indifferent to the fate of Tatars, its own kin, at a time when it portrays itself as protector of victimized people in the Middle East.”

          Despite strong statements of support -- as well Davutoğlu’s early March visit to Kyiv, during which he met with representatives of the Crimean Tatar community -- officials in Ankara are striving to contain nationalist fervor.

          Economics is the reason. Turkey relies on Russia for over half of its natural gas supplies. The country, which ranks as Turkey’s sixth largest export market (worth $7.2 billion in 2013, according to Turkstat), is also important for many Turkish companies. By the end of 2012, Turkish foreign direct investment in Russia was worth $9 billion, according to the Ministry of Economy.

          With Turkish-Russian relations already tense over differences on Syria policy, Ankara seems reluctant to push Russia too hard at this time on Crimea. During a March 5 telephone call between Erdoğan and Putin, the Turkish prime minister, according to an official statement, placed responsibility for the Crimea situation “foremost” on those now in charge in Kyiv. Erdoğan added that "instability would negatively affect the entire region.”

          In March 6 comments on state-run television, Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yıldız played down any concerns that Russian gas supplies would be disrupted, adding that there was no need to seek alternative supplies from countries, such as Azerbaijan.

          Keeping the proper diplomatic balance may get trickier for Erdoğan in the coming weeks and months. Crimea’s recent referendum, which voiced a desire for the peninsula to be annexed by Russia, could create a dilemma for Ankara, said Ülgen, the analyst. Turkey’s emphasis on Ukraine’s territorial integrity and concern about the persecution of the Crimean Tatars under both Russian and Soviet rule mean that “Turkey would need to become much more critical of Russia, if Crimea was to secede to Russia,” said Ülgen.

          At a March 6 news conference in the Crimean capital, Simferopol, Crimean Tatar leader Mustafa Jemiliyev claimed that the Turkish foreign minister told him Turkey “would immediately get involved,” if the Crimean Tatars found themselves at risk.

          Any clash involving Crimean Tatars and the local Russian population on the peninsula would stir up nationalist passions in Turkey and up the pressure on the government to take some sort of action. “There would be certain nationalist individuals [in Turkey] who might be willing to go there [Crimea] and fight,” said Ümut Uzer, an expert on Turkic peoples and Turkish nationalism at Istanbul Technical University.

          It would be difficult for Erdoğan to adopt a more aggressive stance toward Russia that would satisfy his domestic audience without risking a major disruption in bilateral trade. A more confrontational position “poses a fundamental difficulty because [Turkey] doesn’t want its political and economic relationship with Russia endangered … especially as Prime Minister Erdoğan and Russian President Vladimir Putin appear to share a good relationship,” Ülgen said.

          Editor's note: Dorian Jones is a freelance reporter based in Istanbul.

          Comment


          • Re: Regional geopolitics

            "But it is you alone (Haykakan) who uses insulting analogys or discriptions when pointing out your disagreements with the others"
            No Arty you are wrong. Mine are reactions from Mr Vrej calling me a Russian assskisser..as if i care more about Russia more then i do for Armenia. Vrej is completely brainwashed just as Mher and many others here and this is not an insult because it is the absolute proven truth and nothing less. If i tell the truth and people take offence to it then perhaps we should ask why people are offended from the truth? Vrej and others here give you a tunnel vision story which focuses on just what information they want you to see and ignores the whole picture entirely, they use dubious sources of information to back up their claims like Lragir which is obviously a western stooge posing as Armenian media..backing up a bs story with bs sources does not make it a legit story. Yes Artyi do have a choice and i choose to tell the truth based on facts and not brainwashed propaganda. Vrej and Mher defend the fascist take over of a democratically elected leader with the whole process being funded armed and encouraged by the west. Then they turn around and call Russia the dictator undemocratic state imposing its will on a democracy. Do you not see the hypocrisy here? Am i supposed to keep quiet and let them fill other peoples minds with bs to? If what they say is bs then i will call it bs because there is no other word for it.
            Hayastan or Bust.

            Comment


            • Re: Regional geopolitics

              Originally posted by Haykakan View Post
              "But it is you alone (Haykakan) who uses insulting analogys or discriptions when pointing out your disagreements with the others"
              No Arty you are wrong. Mine are reactions from Mr Vrej calling me a Russian assskisser..as if i care more about Russia more then i do for Armenia. Vrej is completely brainwashed just as Mher and many others here and this is not an insult because it is the absolute proven truth and nothing less. If i tell the truth and people take offence to it then perhaps we should ask why people are offended from the truth? Vrej and others here give you a tunnel vision story which focuses on just what information they want you to see and ignores the whole picture entirely, they use dubious sources of information to back up their claims like Lragir which is obviously a western stooge posing as Armenian media..backing up a bs story with bs sources does not make it a legit story. Yes Artyi do have a choice and i choose to tell the truth based on facts and not brainwashed propaganda. Vrej and Mher defend the fascist take over of a democratically elected leader with the whole process being funded armed and encouraged by the west. Then they turn around and call Russia the dictator undemocratic state imposing its will on a democracy. Do you not see the hypocrisy here? Am i supposed to keep quiet and let them fill other peoples minds with bs to? If what they say is bs then i will call it bs because there is no other word for it.
              Ba Hoooooooooooooooooooo

              Comment


              • Re: Regional geopolitics

                Originally posted by Haykakan View Post
                Nah man its not personal -its the truth. I dont say he is the only misinformed person i say he is a part of the misinformed/stupid horde so it is not personal. Perhaps you can further educate our members here along with Mher on the bullccrap that is the EU or even worst the USA. I do get frustrated with people who ignore the facts even when i do all the work of pointing them out and showing how and why they are the facts only to be countered by stupid comments like "Who cares about cognac and apricots". If out of all the stuff i wrote this is the comment you come up with well then you deserve to be called stupid and brainwashed because you just proved that you are. Not that this condition cannot be changed but still what else was i supposed to call it?
                ----- I say he is part of the misinformed -----
                Then you put the "slash stupid hord".
                I agree with your argument Haykakan, and up until you put the "slash stupid hord" in there, you were fit for the world stage. When you inserted that part to make your point you would have lost the audience and made educating them more difficult. The primary goal is to educate, to inform, to bring up to speed.
                To have continued in the vein of "the misinformed" and then with well chosen words to SHOW the misinformation I think is more productive and fruitful.
                Your points are valid and true. The insults are not the way to get these points across.
                Also, as true as it is that the USA/Euro scam is insidious, so it is that Russia/China is self centered wannabe "I'm the leader" crap. So that the points of worry expressed about us or anyone wholeheartly embrassing them also have merit.
                The arguement is not stark black and white and one side is all right and the other is all wrong.
                I am looking to bring out the best in each of us and embrace our collective good intention.
                I seek this not exclusively for Armenia but for others as well.
                Personally, I think there is something about us that the world fears. To keep us divided is the goal.
                What we might come up with if we could get together I don't know, but I think it's decency and this conniving world fears that.
                Not sure I made my point but think you could do emmesurably better in your wording.
                Artashes
                HARK

                Comment


                • Re: Regional geopolitics

                  Originally posted by Haykakan View Post
                  Mher looks like you got them colorful glasses on to. Who cares about cognac and apricots? Well Armenia does care since these are major parts of its economy and these are just examples. There are blatant negatives in joining the EU to but you conveniantly ignore those and focus on the negatives of CU. Yes people will be lining up to buy Armenian apricots and cognac because after the custom duties go into effect these products will be far cheaper then our competitors in the for CU customers. This gives us exclusive access to hundreds of millions of customers. I should not have to explain this crap it is basic shiitt that any undergrad should be able to figure out on his own but you and many others have been brainwashed by western media and believe that nothing but the west can save you. The western propaganda has turned you and most others into brain dead zombies whose ability to think for themselves has been severely compromised and their perception of the world reduced to catch phrases and meaningless words like Democracy, freedom, western values, ....of course non of these things neither exist nor matter in the west but it is obvious that they got you believing that they do exist and matter and not only that but that you should spread them to others since they are so great for u. Use your brain instead of rehashing western probaganda-look at what really matters like security, sustained long term development and growth, education. "without a single analysis" you say right after i gave you a good analysis but of course not only did you disregard my analysis you completely disregard the comparative and absolute advantages Armenia would have in a customs/eurasian union as well. The traditional "worlds biggest economies" are not growing and Asia is where the future is at and the Eurasion union is designed to take advantage of this growth. The eurasion union has great potential because no trading blocks exist in that region and many other countries will want to join it once it is up and running and proving its effectiveness. The success of the Eurasion union is exactly what the west is terrified of and that is why it is attaching so much negativity to it and comparing it with soviet times.. Western media has got you so brainwashed that you utterly ignore all facts even when i spoon feed them to you while sticking with your zombie braindead propaganda no matter what. This is exactly what western media is doing-it keeps you not just stupid but also utterly incaapable of absorbing any information contrary to its propaganda. You are not the only one - there are many millions like you - braindead zombies drewling from the mouth hungry for more western bs. You have a brain and that brain is good for much more then repeating what the news says so use it accordingly.
                  Ahhh yesss, the good old "western media brainwashing" card, that seems to always work when someone is all out of arguments in defending Russia or papa Putin .... along with throwing out words like "zionist" "capitalism" "NGO", etc. As you'll see in my attempt to explain my position, all of my views are based on simple data. Not any imaginary or real western biased news sources. I didn't make up my views on the CU based on any "Western propaganda". I've been looking at the economic aspect of, and simply looking at the numbers, I've realized the costs by far outweigh the benefits.... you see, numbers are a little harder to bs than words, so here you go:

                  Who cares about cognac and apricots? Well Armenia does care since these are major parts of its economy and these are just examples. There are blatant negatives in joining the EU to but you conveniantly ignore those and focus on the negatives of CU. Yes people will be lining up to buy Armenian apricots and cognac because after the custom duties go into effect these products will be far cheaper then our competitors in the for CU customers. This gives us exclusive access to hundreds of millions of customers.

                  Can you explain how they are major part of our export economy exactly? How did you draw that conclusion? What percentage of our exports is apricots? Because they don't register ANYWHERE near our top exports. So they are miniscule enough where data isn't readily available for them. In fact, all fruits put together to register anywhere near the top. So I assume they are a very very small part. Cognac itself doesn't register, but hard liquor as whole manages to reach the 3rd spot. Counted all together hard liquor accounts for 8.3% of our exports. Let's just be very generous and say that 100% of that is cognacs. Moreover, let's just say by some magic, our cognac exports explode, and double in the next two years. Well an impossible to achieve 8.3% increase in exports is hardly going to revolutionize our economy.

                  Now can you explain what some of these negatives of joining the EU are? that's not supposed to be a rhetorical question; I genuinely want to know. Because the negatives of joining the CU are quiet obvious, but its benefits not so much. Its biggest negative is creating tariffs for 80% of economic trade, which is the nations not in the CU. Moreover its serious and notable expected increase in inflation directly because of joining the CU. Finally, there's the issue of Armenia not having land access to any of this union anytime in the near future. See nobody here is fighting for the EU. I'm simply stating the blatant negatives of the CU.

                  " perception of the world reduced to catch phrases and meaningless words like Democracy, freedom, western values"

                  lol at western values. I think, as much as you might hate it, that describes your liberal social views. I hold fairly conservative views, and really don't want to see social liberalism in Armenia. Last thing I want to see is Armenia resemble anything close to Western Europe socially. So don't put words, especially your own, into my mouth.

                  I do think democracy and freedom are very real things. I don't think by a long stretch America is a corrupt free nation. But there are dozens of nations that are much more politically democratic, and that is a very real thing. Without a doubt Scandinavian countries come to mind. But more importantly though, America might have its issues, but relatively, it is a much more democratic nation than Russia. You see just adding noise by bringing up the flaws of western countries, doesn't hide the blatant faults of Russia. There is such a thing as relative difference. People who report and embarrass the government can't be as easily persecuted. No Edward Snowden doesn't count, the guy isn't a journalist. You don't get jailed for being a political threat. But I'm getting off topic. The point is, democracy is a very real concept that can be achieved, and by no means do I think America has achieved it, and more importantly, by no means do i think that America is the level Armenia should strive for.


                  look at what really matters like security, sustained long term development and growth, education. "without a single analysis" you say right after i gave you a good analysis but of course not only did you disregard my analysis you completely disregard the comparative and absolute advantages Armenia would have in a customs/eurasian union as well.


                  I think I already mentioned security. I don't think that's supposed to count as an economic benefit, do you? That Armenia has to join the CU because it is forced to for security reasons is hardly related to economics.

                  "long term growth and development"
                  lol what long term growth an development??? My entire point was that Russia's growth has slowed down. The central part of my concern and problem with Russia had to do with long term growth and development. Did you miss that part? The entire drawback was that you're putting all of your hopes into a foreign economy whose entire growth was not based on fundamental change, but a rise in prices of commodities. whose entire exports are based on those commodities. That those commodities have reached their historic peak and there's nowhere else to go. How is that long term growth and development?

                  I don't even know what to say on the education comment, so let's just move on.

                  "Without a single analysis" refers to a professional analysis done by a major global/regional economic group. Let it be the Eurasian Bank, Russian bank, whatever. Not on this forum by you. Please find one. You know why I ask? Because there isn't one. All of these conclusions were made without you or anyone else actually having any data. Only words like propaganda, western, lragir, ngo, etc. There was actually a meager semi analysis released a few days back. But well after anyone actually made up their mind.

                  So what are these advantages??? that we will have an a few percent increase in our Cognac exports or what? Because, LIKE I STATED BEFORE, a majority of Armenia's exports are raw unprocessed material, NATURAL RESOURCES. Material that the other countries are full of. So again I ask what are these advantage

                  "te traditional "worlds biggest economies" are not growing and Asia is where the future is at and the Eurasion union is designed to take advantage of this growth. The eurasion union has great potential because no trading blocks exist in that region and many other countries will want to join it once it is up and running and proving its effectiveness. The success of the Eurasion union is exactly what the west is terrified of and that is why it is attaching so much negativity to it and comparing it with soviet times"


                  No see again you create this east-west alignment where the growth of China is somehow extended to the growth of Russia, where Russia gets credit for China's work, and again ignore what I had said before. That somehow, because China is doing well, that will be extended to the CU. When China and Russia are entirely different entities, that don't consider each other allies, that each want their own economic region. The growth of China was and is based on fundamental changes, changes caused by economic and political reform. Changes in Russia however, where caused by American imperialism doing Russia (and Azerbaijan) a big favor and driving up the price of commodities. You cannot simply tie China to Russia as part of some magical nonexistent "East". China has very different views and interest than Russia, and some potential CU candidates are staying away to not damage relations with China. Because China wants its own region of dominance, of influence. Not some half asssed version of the Soviet Union. Chinese society overall looks at Russia with great skepticism, and doesn't see it as the ally that funny enough you big bad "western media" tries to make them out to be.


                  and of course you conclude with:

                  "Western media .... brainwashed ....... zombie braindead propaganda ...... western media ..... stupid ....... propaganda............ braindead zombies drewling from the mouth ....... western bs...."

                  truly strong closing argument.....

                  man I actually want to read your posts because you're informed and unlike the prorussiabots that occasionally popup here, you bother to respond to things beyond saying Russia is God and Putin is Jesus Christ and you usually know what you're talking about. But don't stoop down to insults and magic political words. I assure you I have enough education (beyond "undergrad") and knowledge to know what I'm talking about, and I've spent way to much of my life on Armenian issues to let my views be shaped by any propaganda. so... talk numbers and facts
                  Last edited by Mher; 03-09-2014, 04:04 AM.
                  <<եթե զենք էլ չլինի' ես քարերով կկրվեմ>>

                  Comment


                  • Re: Regional geopolitics

                    Yes Arty you made good points and frustration seems to get the better of me at times. I will try to be more calm and patient with Mher. I am glad that you are educated Mher but it seems you have not studied things like comparative and absolute advantage or things like natural endowments. Yes you are less brainwashed then most about the west but that does not seem to prevent you from falling prey to some of its propaganda. I thought i did a good job of explaining to you the benefits of closed markets (which also have costs) but for whatever reason you seem to not understand it. I will try to calmly explain it and address your points but in return i ask that you actually think about what i am writing instead of saying o Russia stopped growing, china does not like Russia....just look at the facts. My whole reason for posting in this forum is because i love my people and Armenia and i want what is best for both-all my life i have been exceedingly a patient man but age i guess has worn it thin.
                    Lets talk economics first. The notion of comparative and absolute advantage work like this...lets say i am good at building airplanes..i can build both large and small airplanes faster and cheaper then you thus i have Absolute advantage in building Airplanes over you. Even little ole Armenia has some Absolute advantages due to its natural endowments which are advantages it has over others in terms of geography, climate, natural resources, education etc.. Apricots are a good example of Armenia's absolute advantage over other CU countries. There is also something called comparative Advantage which means so long as you opportunity cost of doing something is lower than someone elses then you have a comparative advantage-here is a good explanation of these advantages http://www.econlib.org/library/Topic...advantage.html The key here is that everyone including little ole Armenia has a comparative advantage in some things. Even the poorest countries on earth have comparative advantage on the bigger countries. I used apricots as an example like that article i linked uses typing and playing basketball as examples. You can insert things like minerals and metals in there if it helps you understand how this relates to Armenia better. Although you will always have comparative advantage regardless of how big and diverse the market is, you are not likely to have absolute advantages with more market participants because the more participants, countries are involved the chances increase that you may lose you absolute advantage. The negative of joining the EU is that we lose pretty much all of our absolute advantages since for example Turkey can grow apricots to and can grow more of them then we can for probably less money. Non of the countries in the CU grow apricots besides Armenia thus the absolute advantage. You can replace apricots with other things if it makes it easier for you to understand the concept. In the EU you have a big market for you products but you also have lots of competition..turkey can make apricots to, France can make cogniac to..In the CU you also have a big market but in these countries apricots and grapes do not grow or do not grow nearly as well thus you have no competition here or very little of it. Again you can use a number of examples here and i choose cogniac because it is an easy example to make you understand the point. In the EU (assuming Armenia is a full member, which may take forever to happen if it happens at all) French cogniac is our competition and it is quality wise better then ours. This does not mean people will not buy our cogniac but it does mean that we have strong competition in this field for this market. In the CU we have very little competition because French cogniac will be much more expensive due to import duties and most people in this huge market will be buying our cogniac. Again you can replace cogniac with apricots or minerals or whatever else..Land access to CU countries is a serious issue but as you are seeing now - national borders are being redrawn and there is good chance we will see this happening in our region as well where a scenario will be created that will grant us access to the CU directly (one of our direct neighbors becomes a member) of via small regional free trade zone of another country. I hope this explains the economic aspect for you.
                    Now lets talk about your other point-Democracy. This form of government is worshiped by the west but most people do not understand why. The real reason why democracy is so big in the west is not that it gives people a voice (this is strictly an illusion) but because it makes possible unprecedented rates and kinds of corruption for the rich and powerful. There is no nation on this earth more utterly corrupt then the USA because special interest is a form of legitimized corruption which rules that country and many other democracies. The types of bribing that go on in these big western democracies make soviet era corruption look like child play. Powerful corporations and foreighn interest groups can start wars that hurt all countries involved but benefit them. Democracies are not only inherently more corrupt then other forms of government they are also more warlike. These are not assumptions i am making out of nowhere-they are proven facts you can look up yourself. Other forms of government offer representation at much lower levels of corruption. You and many others are used to seeing things a certain way because of what you are told of see but the truth is that Russia is far less corrupt then the USA because special interest groups are illegal there. Russia does what is in her interest unlike USA which does what is in the interest of special interest. You do not want to use USA as an example but i would argue that you have to because eventually this is what democracy has and will always lead to no matter where you are. I do not just make up these assumptions just look at the people who invented it..the Greek city states were at constant war with another - displaying the warlike nature of democracy- they turned intolorant and executed people like Socrates for criticizing it, just like America is doing it now (NDAA, Patriot act..) It matters not what the scandanavian democracies look like now because they all evolve into the same thing eventually and again i am not talking out of my ass here-just look at Greece and USA both of whom started out like scandanavian democracies and evolved into utterly disgusting things. The freedom that you speak of under these democracies is utter illusion-you have an illusion that your voice is heard and matters but in reality no one could care less about you or your voice in these democracies.
                    Security and economics are your next issue so lets discuss them now. You say there is no link between them but you could not be more wrong. How do you see a good economy without security? How do you see security without a good economy? One cannot exist without the other thus they are very much related. You cannot grow your industries if you cannot keep them safe. People will not invest in countries where they know their investments will be looted by invaders. Of all the things you have trouble understanding this is the one that is the most surprising to me that you are not clear about.
                    Long term development is next and it is very much related to what we have already discussed. Even if we have 0 absolute advantages over other CU countries (which is not true) we always have comparative advantage as i explained earlier. We have more absolute advantages in the CU then in the EU simply because we have less competition in the CU. Less competition and access to huge protected market is great for domestic industries. The other and more important thing we discussed earlier which applies very much to long term growth is long term security. To grow you industries and economy you must have security in the present and the future or else you have no chance of economic growth. It always amazes me how so many people especially Armenians want to separate economy and security when it is absolutely and abundently clear that these two things are forever linked in the strongest term of Linked that can possibly exist. You think Japan would have become an economic power if USA did not guarantee its security?
                    Now lets move on to China and the east. You are under the false impression that Chinas growth is not tied to the Russian economy thus a growing China is no benefit to Russian economy. You could not be more wrong in this conclusion and the reason is that a growing economy like China has a growing appetite for resources-resources it either does not have or has it in short supply. China happens to be right next to Russia which is the most resource rich country on earth. Now please do not tell me you still do not see the link here between Russias economy and China(or many other Asian countries). You do not have to be best buddies to trade with each other. Chinas growth helps Russia grow and once the CU is in effect Armenia will take advantage of the growth of both of these countries by filling growing demand of growing economies. China still has a lot of growth left in her which is becoming more and more fueled by local demand as the Chinese citizens get richer-this is healthy real growth. This growth will help the Russian economy because the growing demand in China means growing demand for Russian goods which means Russia gets richer-as Russia gets richer its demand grows for all goods including whatever Armenia supplies thus The CU, Russia, China, Armenia are all very much connected.
                    I have just given you solid facts that will be backed up by any knowledgeable economist, historian who is unbiased. I stand by my statements of "Western media .... brainwashed ....... zombie braindead propaganda ...... western media ..... stupid ....... propaganda............ braindead zombies drewling from the mouth ....... western bs...."
                    Because all of this is very much true..powerful forces do not want you to see these simple facts because they have other agendas and you and many others fall prey to these forces despite being educated. My conclusions are not only rational but are backed up by historic precedent. During the soviet union Armenia had significant absolute advantages and comparative advantages(not to mention security) and its people lived in relative prosperity and a lifestyle not seen in Armenia since those days. The CU has the potential to not only return Armenia to higher living standards but to surpass anything she has witnessed before because people learn from their mistakes and do things better next time. Please consider my points carefully for i have taken the time to express them in a manner i think most people will understand and i have done so in a respectable way so please show some respect back by not blurting out stupid stuff like o what about the Stalin years or some other cheap shot which has nothing to do with this discussion.
                    Hayastan or Bust.

                    Comment


                    • Re: Regional geopolitics

                      Originally posted by londontsi View Post
                      Mher

                      I think your assessment of the economies of the US and the UK are far too optimistic.

                      The debt levels and the burden on their economies is unsustainable, ( No different than Greece).

                      The interest on those debts is higher than Government income, tax receipts etc.
                      This has been the case for a number of years.
                      Therefore payment of those debts is impossible despite resorting to printing money at unprecedented levels.
                      Incidentally if we resorted to paying our way in the lifestyle we are accustomed to, we would be put in prison for many years.

                      On a more serious note - Russia, China and a number of other countries who are seeing this are trying to decouple themselves from this fraud.
                      The answer of the US is a variant of the Libya scenario.
                      You may wish to research why Libya and Gadhafi went the way they did.

                      You need to see the CU from this perspective.

                      .
                      Originally posted by Hakob View Post
                      That is why western countries are eyeing so hungrily on Russia's or other former soviet block countries resources. To delay the inevitable collapse. These new countries have to share the debt by buying American debt(dollar). And whatever they have will be turned into western corporate value by owning or outright dismantling. Plus population integration into western consumer market. All this will give some more time. Incidentally, the latest difficulties in US budgeting are not about balancing it. The problems are about raising debt ceiling in order to pay debt interest. It has begun spiraling out of controll That in turn makes it harder to keep other countries in dollar market. Some countries are quitting dollar altogether. At the beginning euro was thought to be better, but it is going the way of dollar because of similar reasons. Especially after 2008 real estate/ banking fiasco. Also eurozone has enough internal problems to be unreliable.
                      Originally posted by Hakob View Post
                      Like to add that the incredible efforts by west to bring and hold all the countries into western led world financial system is to enrich their own financial systems and in case of crisis soften or avoid any collapse. By total domination financial blows can be diverted to as many other countries as possible, thus, keeping the core anglosaxon west dominant and above water. In other words, countries like in Middle East, South America, Africa or orient will suffer most of western collapse quakes, but dollar or euro printing countries will suffer less. This is the 21st century colonialism. Exept it is done in the name of spreading democracy. The countries that were colonialists in 19th century, are gathering themselves in the new order. They will still be the beneficiaries of this order. So if anybody thinks that Russia is behaving as colonialist, should remember that just like in 19th century, it is countering western one with its own, in order not to become a colony itself. In the 19th century colonialists were disguising their dominance and plunder as bringing civilization to those savages in Middle East, Africa, orient and elsewhere to whitewash their actions, now they do the same under disguise of democracy.
                      This is the USA/Euro that I'm familiar with.
                      If you look at the relative prosperity of this group and then look at their emmediate preceding history, you see thieves going around the world (colonial) robbing to gain their base wealth. You see USA using gun boat diplomacy (Japan has to open trade).
                      The opening of trade with this group seems good as that is the rosey picture they display. However the actual goal is to open our market to them, not vice versa.
                      Anytime they want to lend billions to supposedly help is a trap. Once that is done they then run the show. In virtually every case that lending is done, the money is misspent and the strengthening of the borrowing country is not accomplished. They know this will happen, it's a road game of theirs. They know the most capable thiefs (oligarchies) will grab all they can, making the loan non productive.
                      They (the lenders) know that.
                      The above quoted posts are more true depiction of the USA/Euro than their stated depiction of themselves.
                      The EU DEMAND that we cannot belong to CU and it's them only or else is the first step of their absolute demands, but would not be the last.
                      Their control of us will advance the turc.
                      Extreme caution is in order when dealing with them.
                      Artashes
                      HARK

                      Comment

                      Working...
                      X