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Re: Regional geopolitics
In this post I will try to answer both Vrej and Haykakan.
First we should realize that no side is truly and honestly working with us or anybody. Neither Russia nor US or France, Germany or what have you. They operate in their interest.
We should also realize that our job is not what this sides are promising us or have done in past, but what their plans are and based on geostrategic factors how they will behave in our region given the conflict between them is heating up every day and it could get very ugly at the end.
We should see clearly what southern caucasus represents for them and what are they willing to do for their plans. It is obvious that southern caucasus has much more value to Russia then to US. And Russia is willing to go the extra mile in securing it's interests here, unlike US, for whom it is only a part of overall worldwide strategy game. So we should expect that Russia will ultimately have more impact in our area.
Not only lot of people, but also, looks like EU and US, and especially Ukrainian nationalists and liberals did not calculate correctly of what strategic importance Ukraine had for Russia and what it was willing to do to protect it''s interests in what it considers it's immediate and vital sphere. They are facing the consequences now. Would we like to be in their place?
Russia needed a platform in southern caucasus. Did not matter Armenia, Azerbaijan or Georgia( better it is us right?). It was willing do do whatever necessary to get it. At the time of arms supplies to Baku, Armenian government was signaling in every way that it wants to sign association agreement with EU(we see now how Russia reacts on it about in Ukraine). At that time, meanwhile, azerbaijan was and still is signaling that it does not appreciate very much EU democracy principles. I am convinced that very few in our circles have realized what dangers would come from signing that EU deal. Completely throwing Russia's support for Azeris.
I don't see any backstabbing from Russian side. It is just matter of strategic interests. US and all other powers do the same. It is a political immaturity for any politicians, especially for opposition in not being able to see behind their kiddish "amigo" dreams. Or it represents a total blindness due to political convictions. Or it is a deliberate attempt to mislead Armenian public in spreading very unrealistic propagandist ideas.
If we cannot see whats about what, in around us, it's our problem.
We have paid very dearly in 1918-21 for political blindness by not seeing Soviet expansion and sticking with west, while turks on both sides were quick on taking advantage of.
I have said it before and I will say it again. Final Artsakh game will be played amongst Armenia-Azerbaijan-Russia.
It is up to us what the outcome will be. I agree with Haykakan that Armenia is not in position to dictate changes around(in this matter very few countries are indeed. And none of our immediate neighbors). But Armenia must correctly navigate in any given political development in region in order to minimize any negative effects and in case take advantage of opportunities for it's own benefit fully. This is the ultimate possible sovereignty we can expect. Anything else is empty daydreaming and only festers our national cohesive resolve.
No ifs buts and wishfulness. It should be every Armenian's first job to realize what we need to do as individual and nation and do it. Regardless of who backstabbed who, who is more civilized or who is nicer to us.
Our main problem is not knowing what we want and what is realistic. Some people want an overnight switzerland in armenia. Some want a Glendale in Yerevan. We loose lot of opportunities that way. We tend to mix our individual aspirations with national ones.
Who says that it is impossible to realize national advancement goals after becoming Eurasian Customs member? Remember Yugoslavia in Soviet era? Being a communist state, It had one of the best soviet block and European living standards (until US and EU got to it). Belgrade had Soviet market to it's own in producing and selling western consumer goods to, and also kept political and economic closeness with west.
Who says that life in every country in EU is nice and dandy? Or good future is guaranteed?
I find that Serj Sargsian has a very realistic foreign policy that threads so thinly between powers and is outmost diversified. Today's news for example. In one day he hosts Francois Hollande and talks about special association and relation with Europe in one hand, makes remarks that US latest statements about artsakh are no news and and Madrid principles are the base for any agreement and also talks about completing final touches on Customs Union Agreement. It is obvious that what he does is probably the best political moves policies our nation has seen in long time. I appreciate that. If somebody else in his place, we probably would already be an enemy to Russia or West.
I don't appreciate his internal policies, or absence of them. But in that he is not the only guilty but all of us. Somehow we have not cleaned up the soviet mentality in Armenia. Nor we have had a plan to do so. All the oligarchs, corruption and laziness is left over soviet legacy(I think even russians have managed to change that more successfully in them than we). We need more civil initiatives. More intellectual input.
Armenia has to create a much more balanced internal playing field for all. We have to overcome a lot of bad mentalities. Like clans, backwardness, corruption.
No east or west block will do our job or prevent us from doing it.
In realising the thruth and behaving realistically, we can and must breake out from cycles of bouncing between diffrent powers ineffectively and aimlessly as result of our political immaturity that as a habbit goes back few centuries.
In this post I will try to answer both Vrej and Haykakan.
First we should realize that no side is truly and honestly working with us or anybody. Neither Russia nor US or France, Germany or what have you. They operate in their interest.
We should also realize that our job is not what this sides are promising us or have done in past, but what their plans are and based on geostrategic factors how they will behave in our region given the conflict between them is heating up every day and it could get very ugly at the end.
We should see clearly what southern caucasus represents for them and what are they willing to do for their plans. It is obvious that southern caucasus has much more value to Russia then to US. And Russia is willing to go the extra mile in securing it's interests here, unlike US, for whom it is only a part of overall worldwide strategy game. So we should expect that Russia will ultimately have more impact in our area.
Not only lot of people, but also, looks like EU and US, and especially Ukrainian nationalists and liberals did not calculate correctly of what strategic importance Ukraine had for Russia and what it was willing to do to protect it''s interests in what it considers it's immediate and vital sphere. They are facing the consequences now. Would we like to be in their place?
Russia needed a platform in southern caucasus. Did not matter Armenia, Azerbaijan or Georgia( better it is us right?). It was willing do do whatever necessary to get it. At the time of arms supplies to Baku, Armenian government was signaling in every way that it wants to sign association agreement with EU(we see now how Russia reacts on it about in Ukraine). At that time, meanwhile, azerbaijan was and still is signaling that it does not appreciate very much EU democracy principles. I am convinced that very few in our circles have realized what dangers would come from signing that EU deal. Completely throwing Russia's support for Azeris.
I don't see any backstabbing from Russian side. It is just matter of strategic interests. US and all other powers do the same. It is a political immaturity for any politicians, especially for opposition in not being able to see behind their kiddish "amigo" dreams. Or it represents a total blindness due to political convictions. Or it is a deliberate attempt to mislead Armenian public in spreading very unrealistic propagandist ideas.
If we cannot see whats about what, in around us, it's our problem.
We have paid very dearly in 1918-21 for political blindness by not seeing Soviet expansion and sticking with west, while turks on both sides were quick on taking advantage of.
I have said it before and I will say it again. Final Artsakh game will be played amongst Armenia-Azerbaijan-Russia.
It is up to us what the outcome will be. I agree with Haykakan that Armenia is not in position to dictate changes around(in this matter very few countries are indeed. And none of our immediate neighbors). But Armenia must correctly navigate in any given political development in region in order to minimize any negative effects and in case take advantage of opportunities for it's own benefit fully. This is the ultimate possible sovereignty we can expect. Anything else is empty daydreaming and only festers our national cohesive resolve.
No ifs buts and wishfulness. It should be every Armenian's first job to realize what we need to do as individual and nation and do it. Regardless of who backstabbed who, who is more civilized or who is nicer to us.
Our main problem is not knowing what we want and what is realistic. Some people want an overnight switzerland in armenia. Some want a Glendale in Yerevan. We loose lot of opportunities that way. We tend to mix our individual aspirations with national ones.
Who says that it is impossible to realize national advancement goals after becoming Eurasian Customs member? Remember Yugoslavia in Soviet era? Being a communist state, It had one of the best soviet block and European living standards (until US and EU got to it). Belgrade had Soviet market to it's own in producing and selling western consumer goods to, and also kept political and economic closeness with west.
Who says that life in every country in EU is nice and dandy? Or good future is guaranteed?
I find that Serj Sargsian has a very realistic foreign policy that threads so thinly between powers and is outmost diversified. Today's news for example. In one day he hosts Francois Hollande and talks about special association and relation with Europe in one hand, makes remarks that US latest statements about artsakh are no news and and Madrid principles are the base for any agreement and also talks about completing final touches on Customs Union Agreement. It is obvious that what he does is probably the best political moves policies our nation has seen in long time. I appreciate that. If somebody else in his place, we probably would already be an enemy to Russia or West.
I don't appreciate his internal policies, or absence of them. But in that he is not the only guilty but all of us. Somehow we have not cleaned up the soviet mentality in Armenia. Nor we have had a plan to do so. All the oligarchs, corruption and laziness is left over soviet legacy(I think even russians have managed to change that more successfully in them than we). We need more civil initiatives. More intellectual input.
Armenia has to create a much more balanced internal playing field for all. We have to overcome a lot of bad mentalities. Like clans, backwardness, corruption.
No east or west block will do our job or prevent us from doing it.
In realising the thruth and behaving realistically, we can and must breake out from cycles of bouncing between diffrent powers ineffectively and aimlessly as result of our political immaturity that as a habbit goes back few centuries.
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