Tweet
Re: Military Forces of the Republic of Armenia
Armenian Hostages in Azerbaijan
Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
Comments - 17 November 2014,
Several days have passed since the Azerbaijanis shot down the Armenian helicopter but the Armenian side cannot get close to the place where the Armenian helicopter fell. The Azerbaijanis are firing at the place which is said to be a neutral area. The NKR minister of defense Movses Hakobyan announced that the helicopter is lying 150 meters from the Azerbaijani positions and 350 meters from the Armenian positions.
The Armenian side has applied to the Red Cross and mediators but without any progress so far. On the other hand, opinions are heard that the Armenian armed forces must invade this territory instead of addressing the international organizations.
However, this is not an easy task indeed. The difference between the armed forces of Armenia is not enough for a massive “blitzkrieg” in this situation. The Azerbaijanis are not just armed with hunting guns. They will resist, of course, and new victims on the Armenian side are possible, especially that we are dealing with an open area.
At the same time, there is such a sensitive issue as the bodies of the crew. The helicopter plunged and burned, and the members of the crew could have burned. It is possible that search will take a long time.
On the other hand, it has not been stated whether the Azerbaijanis could have taken the bodies of the Armenian crew. Are the Armenian armed forces keeping the area under fire to prevent the Azerbaijanis from getting close to the bodies?
At the same time, the question arises whether it was not possible to attack suddenly and occupy the area and take the bodies of the crew provided that the Armenian side was conducting a large-scale military training with plenty of personnel and equipment.
Several things are essential, of course. First, the Armenian side was mobilized for a drill but in such cases usually the enemy is also brought to defense preparedness. For example, when the Azerbaijanis are conducting a large-scale military exercise at the border of Artsakh or Armenia, the Armenian forces are also prepared for any sudden development. So there is a high probability that the sudden attack would not help.
Was this circumstance there or any military action would have been fraught with new victims therefore a decision to refrain from such action was made?
Anyway, the existing situation is complicated. From the purely military point of view, the optimal solution can be a thoroughly worked out action for which the even landscape is additional complication.
The addresses to the international organizations have not received a specific answer. There is no doubt that the issue is going through a stage of political-diplomatic discussions. In addition, it is not ruled out that not only the issue of returning the bodies of the crew to Armenia is discussed but the incident and the issue of bodies has triggered a bigger discussion.
In this context it is obvious that Baku will use the bodies of the Armenian crew as hostages trying to achieve maximum tradeoff in regard to the response of the Armenian armed forces. The Armenian minister of defense has announced that the answer of the Armenian side is going to be equal and even a little disproportionate. And Azerbaijan certainly knows very well the defense capability of the Armenian units and their possible consequences.
At the same time, it is possible that the Armenian side will not strike unless the issue of the Armenian side has not been clarified, and the bodies have not been returned. Hence, the bodies of the Armenian crew are hostages in Azerbaijan and Baku will, most probably, try to get guarantees from the Minsk Group mediators that after returning the bodies the Armenian side will refrain from the declared strikes.
The mediators may, of course, make Baku return the bodies without political bargaining but it would have been possible if the helicopter incident had not become a subject of political bargaining among the mediators. Meanwhile, this causes doubts, almost incredible, especially due to two important circumstances: the close military-technical cooperation between Russia and Baku and the fact that the helicopter was downed with a system supplied by Russia.
- See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/com....OP7mpBRV.dpuf
Armenian Hostages in Azerbaijan
Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
Comments - 17 November 2014,
Several days have passed since the Azerbaijanis shot down the Armenian helicopter but the Armenian side cannot get close to the place where the Armenian helicopter fell. The Azerbaijanis are firing at the place which is said to be a neutral area. The NKR minister of defense Movses Hakobyan announced that the helicopter is lying 150 meters from the Azerbaijani positions and 350 meters from the Armenian positions.
The Armenian side has applied to the Red Cross and mediators but without any progress so far. On the other hand, opinions are heard that the Armenian armed forces must invade this territory instead of addressing the international organizations.
However, this is not an easy task indeed. The difference between the armed forces of Armenia is not enough for a massive “blitzkrieg” in this situation. The Azerbaijanis are not just armed with hunting guns. They will resist, of course, and new victims on the Armenian side are possible, especially that we are dealing with an open area.
At the same time, there is such a sensitive issue as the bodies of the crew. The helicopter plunged and burned, and the members of the crew could have burned. It is possible that search will take a long time.
On the other hand, it has not been stated whether the Azerbaijanis could have taken the bodies of the Armenian crew. Are the Armenian armed forces keeping the area under fire to prevent the Azerbaijanis from getting close to the bodies?
At the same time, the question arises whether it was not possible to attack suddenly and occupy the area and take the bodies of the crew provided that the Armenian side was conducting a large-scale military training with plenty of personnel and equipment.
Several things are essential, of course. First, the Armenian side was mobilized for a drill but in such cases usually the enemy is also brought to defense preparedness. For example, when the Azerbaijanis are conducting a large-scale military exercise at the border of Artsakh or Armenia, the Armenian forces are also prepared for any sudden development. So there is a high probability that the sudden attack would not help.
Was this circumstance there or any military action would have been fraught with new victims therefore a decision to refrain from such action was made?
Anyway, the existing situation is complicated. From the purely military point of view, the optimal solution can be a thoroughly worked out action for which the even landscape is additional complication.
The addresses to the international organizations have not received a specific answer. There is no doubt that the issue is going through a stage of political-diplomatic discussions. In addition, it is not ruled out that not only the issue of returning the bodies of the crew to Armenia is discussed but the incident and the issue of bodies has triggered a bigger discussion.
In this context it is obvious that Baku will use the bodies of the Armenian crew as hostages trying to achieve maximum tradeoff in regard to the response of the Armenian armed forces. The Armenian minister of defense has announced that the answer of the Armenian side is going to be equal and even a little disproportionate. And Azerbaijan certainly knows very well the defense capability of the Armenian units and their possible consequences.
At the same time, it is possible that the Armenian side will not strike unless the issue of the Armenian side has not been clarified, and the bodies have not been returned. Hence, the bodies of the Armenian crew are hostages in Azerbaijan and Baku will, most probably, try to get guarantees from the Minsk Group mediators that after returning the bodies the Armenian side will refrain from the declared strikes.
The mediators may, of course, make Baku return the bodies without political bargaining but it would have been possible if the helicopter incident had not become a subject of political bargaining among the mediators. Meanwhile, this causes doubts, almost incredible, especially due to two important circumstances: the close military-technical cooperation between Russia and Baku and the fact that the helicopter was downed with a system supplied by Russia.
- See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/com....OP7mpBRV.dpuf
Comment