Upcoming war against Iran and the consequences for Armenia

[Tigranakert]

Re: Upcoming war against Iran and the consequences for Armenia

Smartass - this just means American forces no longer have a direct land route into Iran, and Iran could, in any future war involving America, topple the current unstable Iraqi regime like it were a house of cards. So it makes any American military action against Iran even less likely. And the withdrawal that you have "announced" in the above post has been planned for years.

If you look at it with the narrow perspective that you do, that could be your conclusion. But actually, you speak against yourself. It is because they know Iran can influence Iraq that much, that they pull back their troops, or else thousands of American soldiers would be slaughtered in Iraq.

To fight against Iran, you have to increase the ethnic tensions in Iran and support anti-Iranian ethnic groups to make them fight each other, combine this with an immense air-strike that will paralyse the whole country (which is why Iran is desperately trying to obtain air-defense systems, but failed to do so). The US troops will watch at a safe distance. Time will tell, old Scott.

[bell-the-cat]

Re: Upcoming war against Iran and the consequences for Armenia

That's why they are pulling back from Iraq (and Afghanistan), smartass, so they can concentrate on Iran. Anyways, the mass will forget about the dead in about, two seconds, I guess.

Smartass - this just means American forces no longer have a direct land route into Iran, and Iran could, in any future war involving America, topple the current unstable Iraqi regime like it were a house of cards. So it makes any American military action against Iran even less likely. And the withdrawal that you have "announced" in the above post has been planned for years.

[Tigranakert]

Re: Upcoming war against Iran and the consequences for Armenia

Obama announces end of Iraq war, troops to return home by year end.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20123800-503544/obama-announces-end-of-iraq-war-troops-to-return-home-by-year-end/

[Mos]

Re: Upcoming war against Iran and the consequences for Armenia

What exactly is preventing Russian-Iranian relations from flourishing? Why did Russia not deliver on the S-300 deal and why is Russia so cautious of increasing ties with Iran? Is it simply economic pressure from the West, because I cannot see how it would not be in the interest of Russia to become very close with Iran.

Large pressure from the West, Medvedev has been more cooperative with the West than Putin. They are also to some extent rivals in the greater region, in all the 3 big powers (Turkey, Russia, Iran) are regional rivals.

[Mher]

Re: Upcoming war against Iran and the consequences for Armenia

What exactly is preventing Russian-Iranian relations from flourishing? Why did Russia not deliver on the S-300 deal and why is Russia so cautious of increasing ties with Iran? Is it simply economic pressure from the West, because I cannot see how it would not be in the interest of Russia to become very close with Iran.

[Mos]

Re: Upcoming war against Iran and the consequences for Armenia

The whole region will distabilize......Armenia may not be able to stay nutural. We could help Iran in many ways (not military per say) but also opportunity against Azerbaijan could open up.

haysip: Not attack, but to pre-empt in the cover of regional war.....we have all the excuses we need from Azeri cease fire violations. We can also force Russia to go along with it.

But if there's war between Azerbaijan and Iran, the West will find a perfect reason to intervene against Iran. Though I doubt a war would break out between them. Neither Iranian people or Azeri people I doubt would want to fight each other.

Though if Israel strikes Iran, Iran should just wipe out Israel - we will have a proxy Turkish/Azeri state eliminated.

[Eddo211]

Re: Upcoming war against Iran and the consequences for Armenia

This is a very complicated scenario with varying implications. Our government will have to take many factors in consideration in trying to develop a policy towards such a hypothetical war. Factors such as:

1) Russia's lukewarm relationship with Iran
2) Iran's relationship with us based heavily on strategic tensions with Azerbaijan
3) Having Iran as an alternative economic partner
4) Not wanting to come under Western sanctions or attack

I would always support the Iranian nation against such an attack as I view them as historical friends, however, when it comes to what Armenia would do, I don't think it's that simple. We need to take into consideration that our main strategic/military partner is Russia, and we will have to coordinate our response to such an attack with them. We cannot afford to overtly support Iran or else the West will turn its wrath on us also which will be devastating for our country. So in all, the best course of action in my view would be to be neutral, not support, not be against, just declare that we are neutral. We could accept some refugees and open a corridor for humanitarian purposes.

I would not want to see the current regime fall however. As much as I don't like the notion of a theocracy and Mullahs ruling a country and preaching fundamentalism, the fact that they are on bad terms with Azerbaijan is a big plus for us. A regime in Iran that is friendly with Azerbaijan would be a big blow for us, as then we would be surrounded by 3 unfriendly nations.

In all, though, I don't think US will attack Iran. They are stupid, but I don't think THAT stupid. That country is broke, the public wants the wars over, the economy is in a mess, if they attacked Iran, US would fall apart. So an attack on Iran would be self-suicide for the US. We mustn't forget also, while Iran preaches an Islamic idealogy that's just the outer layer. In reality, it makes pragmatic choices that at times go against what one would predict it would do if following its ideology strictly.

The whole region will distabilize......Armenia may not be able to stay nutural. We could help Iran in many ways (not military per say) but also opportunity against Azerbaijan could open up.

haysip: Not attack, but to pre-empt in the cover of regional war.....we have all the excuses we need from Azeri cease fire violations. We can also force Russia to go along with it.

[Tigranakert]

Re: Upcoming war against Iran and the consequences for Armenia

And you are doing your bit to propagate it. Is your Israeli wage-check in the post?

Every dead American in Iraq acts as a restraint on America's war mongering spreading - so as long as the dead continue to pile up there, American boots won't be marching elsewhere.

That's why they are pulling back from Iraq (and Afghanistan), smartass, so they can concentrate on Iran. Anyways, the mass will forget about the dead in about, two seconds, I guess.

[bell-the-cat]

Re: Upcoming war against Iran and the consequences for Armenia

The anti-Iranian propaganda has intensified the last couple of weeks...

And you are doing your bit to propagate it. Is your Israeli wage-check in the post?

Every dead American in Iraq acts as a restraint on America's war mongering spreading - so as long as the dead continue to pile up there, American boots won't be marching elsewhere.

[retro]

Re: Upcoming war against Iran and the consequences for Armenia

Unless Iran's does some kind of a deal in regards to it's nuclear program. I'd say that at some point the Israelis could elect to bomb Iran and the xxxs aren't a people to second guess. As the religious xxxs have far to much influence in Israel and they are not rational actors.

The Gulf Arabs have few trillion USD in western assets. Which gives them a great deal of leverage. However the demographic transition in the Middle East favours the Shia. What is more, they have a majority in Iraq and are nesting in Russia's orb. So the west may look to avoid a conflict with Iran. As the bulk of it's problems are with Sunnis such as the Pakis.

The Punjabis strategy of appeasing and covertly supporting militants in North Waziristan is going very badly wrong for them. As now NATO are keen to engage militant groups hiding out in northern Pakistan.

Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani said on Thursday that Pakistani forces were fully prepared to face any aggression from outside and protect the sovereignty of the country, and no one should have any illusions about that.

http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2011...n-says-kayani/