Eurasian Customs Union

[Haykakan]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

No I highly doubt that a significant portion of the non-Eurasian imports that can't compete anymore will be replaced by local products. More likely, they'll be replaced by Russian products, which is the entire purpose of the Eurasian Union: to increase Russian influence and dominance.

Thats another thing that article does not mention is which imports is it talking about..it makes no distinctions it just says imports..

[Mher]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

Ukraine In Dire Straits – OpEd
February 10, 2014 Eurasia Review Leave a comment

By Eurasia Review

By Vilen Khlgatyan

For a few months now anti-Yanukovych and pro-EU protests have rocked Kiev and other cities in Ukraine. The protests rose to a qualitatively new level when controversial anti-protest laws were passed in mid-January, followed by the deaths of two protestors by unknown shooters. The troika leading the opposition (Vitaly Klitschko, Arseny Yatsenyuk, and Oleg Tyagnibok) have at times appeared to be losing control of the protests, and jumping at any chance to regain some semblance of leadership. A number of the opposition’s demands were met in the past two weeks, most significantly the resignation of the Prime Minister Mikola Azarov and his entire cabinet, and the parliament’s repeal of the anti-protest laws. Top government posts were offered to Klitschko, Yatsenyuk, and Tyagnibok, all of whom refused. However, the opposition still wants President Viktor Yanukovych to resign, and early elections to take place; currently one is scheduled for next year. The opposition is also seeking an unconditional amnesty and wants a return to Ukraine’s 2004 constitution to limit the powers of the president. Smelling blood and seeing light at the end of the tunnel, the protestors are not about to relent with their political demands.

Faced with one sided criticism from the political West, and little public support from Moscow, Yanukovych finds himself in a tight spot. Much of which is his own doing of course. Most of 2013 he spent playing Moscow and Brussels against one another in order to reap maximum benefits from both; in what can be viewed as Yanukovych’s version of ‘complimentary’ politics. He stated openly to his party cohorts and supporters that he would sign an Association Agreement (AA) with the EU at the Vilnius Summit in November. Even when it became apparent that Brussels was not going to back down from its precondition that former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko be released from prison, Yanukovych kept insisting that he would sign the AA. Therefore, his last minute decision to forego signing an AA and instead engage with Russia came as a psychological shock to his supporters and opponents alike, resulting in the latter party capitalizing on the President’s miscalculation. Since then he has lost much of his credibility with the people, most worrisome for him, this includes many of the Party of Regions supporters who form his political base. Ironically, the chaos caused by the pro-EU protestors has re-kindled some support for Yanukovych among those who see the protests as exacerbating the already fragile Ukrainian economy and body politic. However, his unwillingness to use any type of substantial force to remove the protestors from government buildings in and out of Kiev has only reinforced the image that he is weak and has very few options.

Under-appreciated and glossed over because of the more flashy protests and the slogans chanted by the opposition is the systemic nature of why Ukraine is in a state of turmoil and the inter-relatedness of factors. These are the economic and socio-cultural factors, resulting in a possible change in the kyklos of Ukraine. The kyklos concept refers to the political cycle of governments in a society, as one form of government degenerates into its debased form and replaces it. In the case of Ukraine, democracy is being replaced by ochlocracy or mob rule. The anti-Yanukovych protestors have said what they are against and what they are for, but how they plan to realistically achieve it is left unanswered by them as well as the troika of Klitschko, Yatsenyuk, and Tyagnibok. All three are more concerned about proclaiming populist slogans and scoring short-term political points at the expense of Ukraine’s viability as a nation-state in its current geographic boundaries. Democracy is not meant to be executed through mass violence led by self serving demagogues, at least not if the goal is to establish a stable form of government with a viable future. This well-known principle has been purposefully overlooked by the Ukrainian opposition’s Western backers, who are keen on geopolitically separating Ukraine away from Russia. As a side note, had such violent protests as the ones in Kiev taken place in any major Western city they would have encountered a harsh crackdown by Western authorities.

Near the verge of default, the Ukrainian economy has taken a further drubbing as protests drag on in Kiev and elsewhere in the country. Foreign debt is $140 billion, which is about 80 percent of the country’s GDP. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Ukraine is not only intervening on behalf of the hryvnia, but it is also tapping into reserves to pay the country’s soaring debt, which is a major threat to financial stability. Increasingly foreign investors worry about a public surge to get a hold of foreign currency possibly leading to a government response similar to the one in Cyprus, where authorities used capital controls to protect the currency, and limited its movement across state borders. It is little wonder then that just last week the Bank of Cyprus said it was going to sell its Ukrainian subsidiary Alfa Group Ukraine Limited for €225 million by the end of March. And if that weren’t enough, the $15 billion loan Russia had offered Kiev in December has now been put on hold, as the Kremlin waits to see the outcome of the protests before restarting its financial aid. Ukraine’s economy is heavily integrated with and dependent on Russia, a fact that will not go away if Yanukovych loses power. Nor will the high external debt, or the inability of the EU to geopolitically absorb Ukraine in any meaningful way; this last point being conveniently brushed aside by EU technocrats and the Ukrainian opposition. These are facts that are outside the control of any single government or force structure, yet the protesters in Kiev seem to be either oblivious or unconcerned about them.

On the socio-cultural side, Ukraine is a deeply divided state where a shared history and worldview are missing, which is compounded by religious and linguistic differences. Those people living in the south and east of the country identify with Russia, Orthodoxy, and are likely to speak Russian as their first language. Those in the west identify with Western Europe, Catholicism, and tend to speak Ukrainian on a daily basis. For centuries the eastern and central portions of Ukraine were ruled by the Romanovs of Russia, while the western part was ruled by the Austrian Hapsburgs. Indeed, it was not until the end of the First World War that Ukraine took its present geographic shape. And this difference in worldview and historical experiences are essentially why Leonid Kravchuk, the first president of post-Soviet Ukraine, claimed that his country is on the brink of a civil war.

Whether Ukrainians can set their countries geopolitical course and find a common history, without resorting to full scale violence remains to be seen, but the historical precedents are not encouraging. Any successor to Yanukovych will have to confront the same challenges, and address the root causes; otherwise turmoil will surely engulf the society again and take the country down the path of destitution and dismemberment.

http://www.eurasiareview.com/10022014-ukraine-dire-straits-oped/

[Mher]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

Armenia thrashing out Customs Union membership issues: Russian ambassador


YEREVAN, February 11. /ARKA/. Armenia is working through all issues related to its accession to the Customs Union very quickly, Russia’s ambassador to Armenia Ivan Volinkin said.

It is being done in seven-league strides, the ambassador said in his interview to Armenian Public TV channel.

The ambassador said there are good specialists in Armenia who know well what legislation and other documents are needed and how thoroughly the issues should be studied. Volinkin noted he will be happy if this process is completed as soon as possible.

The diplomat also said Armenia has not changed, but confirmed its foreign policy vector. Armenia has always aimed at cooperation with Russia and integration processes it leads, he said.

Cooperation between the two countries has significantly increased after Armenia’s decision to join the Customs Union, Volinkin said.

According to the ambassador, the foreign policy vector should be reflected in economy as well. He said he believes the membership in the CU will give a renewed impetus to Armenia’s economic development.

In the beginning, many experts said not having common borders with Russia will hinder integration, but further elaborations showed this can give certain advantages to Armenia, Volinkin said.

According to the ambassador, the economic component of Armenia’s membership in the CU is much weightier than the political one.

http://arka.am/en/news/politics/armenia_thrashing_out_customs_union_membership_issues_russian_ambassador/#sthash.OAy7BqRG.dpuf

[Mher]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

Armenia: Second-Hand Car Importers Worry that Customs Union will be a Lemon

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/68149

Anyone want to comment on the issue discussed?
it should be noted the author does have a notable negative tone in all of her articles

http://www.eurasianet.org/taxonomy/term/2750

[Haykakan]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

Armenia: Second-Hand Car Importers Worry that Customs Union will be a Lemon

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/68149

Anyone want to comment on the issue discussed?
it should be noted the author does have a notable negative tone in all of her articles
http://www.eurasianet.org/taxonomy/term/2750

There are always winners and losers in this kind of situation. If the new duties make importing cars costly then perhaps domestic production should be considered. Armenia did produce cars once and high duties on imports would be a good opportunity to satisfy demand my manufacturing locally. Even if the new manufacturing is done by one of the oligarchs(most likely scenario) it will still mean lots of new jobs.

[Mher]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

There are always winners and losers in this kind of situation. If the new duties make importing cars costly then perhaps domestic production should be considered. Armenia did produce cars once and high duties on imports would be a good opportunity to satisfy demand my manufacturing locally. Even if the new manufacturing is done by one of the oligarchs(most likely scenario) it will still mean lots of new jobs.

I doubt that's too realistic in the near future. I'm no expert of the industry, but based on the countries that make car, and more importantly those that do not, it doesn't seem like making cars is concept to be taken lightly. Armenia made cars as part of the Soviet Union, quiet a different concept that Armenia making cars on her own. Considering the fact that Iran cannot make cars and most of the cars are from pre-revolution era or cheap Korean or similar alternatives, I doubt Armenia can make cars.

[Mher]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

PM speaks of 900 goods which Armenia wants to continue levying current import duties on

YEREVAN, March 5. / ARKA /. Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan stressed today again that the decision of the authorities to make the country a member of the Russian-led Customs Union is balanced and right ‘because the main markets for Armenian products are in the territory of the trade bloc.”

"We must follow an active industrial policy to help our enterprises to win the 170 millionth market of Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus" , he said when addressing a meeting of the Union of Armenian Commodity Producers.

The prime minister also spoke about nearly 900 types of goods, which the government in Yerevan wants to continue levying the current import duties, which are significantly lower than the duties applied by the Customs Union. He said the list will be submitted later this month to the Eurasian Economic Commission, the highest body of the Customs Union.

According to the premier, these goods cane be divided into three large groups - raw materials, imported from third countries, consumer goods and cars, various machines and equipment.

He said single phito-sanitary rules should be implemented too so that goods produced in Armenia conform with the Customs Union’s rules and standards. -0-

http://arka.am/en/news/economy/pm_speaks_of_900_goods_which_armenia_wants_to_continue_levying_current_import_duties_on_/#sthash.TdlO75qr.dpuf

[Haykakan]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

I doubt that's too realistic in the near future. I'm no expert of the industry, but based on the countries that make car, and more importantly those that do not, it doesn't seem like making cars is concept to be taken lightly. Armenia made cars as part of the Soviet Union, quiet a different concept that Armenia making cars on her own. Considering the fact that Iran cannot make cars and most of the cars are from pre-revolution era or cheap Korean or similar alternatives, I doubt Armenia can make cars.

I would not brush off this scenario so quickly. Armenia has the know how, resources, much of the industry needed and the cheap labor. It can easily import whatever it cannot make efficiently via other custom union members(the whole car does not need to be made in Armenia). As usual this has a lot to do with the interests of those in power. Things are changing quickly in our region-you may be surprised as to what will be possible.

[Eddo211]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

I agree with Haykakan......btw Iran does have its own auto manufacturing facility and some of the cars they make are nice.

http://www.presstv.com/detail/2013/11/30/337557/iran-auto-industry-seeks-to-boost-production/

http://www.presstv.com/detail/2013/07/22/315085/ikco-to-introduce-6-new-cars-by-yearend/

Solar car by Iran

[Mher]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

I agree with Haykakan......btw Iran does have its own auto manufacturing facility and some of the cars they make are nice.

http://www.presstv.com/detail/2013/11/30/337557/iran-auto-industry-seeks-to-boost-production/

http://www.presstv.com/detail/2013/07/22/315085/ikco-to-introduce-6-new-cars-by-yearend/

Solar car by Iran

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_industry_in_Iran

it seems like things have changed quiet a bit in the country in the last decade or so

Still there's a long way between Iran and the resources available to it and Armenia in one of the world geopolitical locations on earth. I don't think this will be too plausible in the near future, but we'll see. The overall auto policy of the CU should be interesting to watch considering Russian obsession with German cars. I have a feeling there will be a special exception made for German Auto makers in the CU rules.