Energy in Azerbaijan

[Vrej1915]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Iranian gas will go to Europe via Azerbaijan?

http://haqqin.az/investigations/50786

Visit of the Minister of Economy and Industry Shahin Mustafayev to Iran has been very fruitful in terms of cooperation between the two countries in the energy field.
The Minister, in particular, suggested Tehran to use the infrastructure of Azerbaijan for the supply of Iranian oil and gas to world markets.....

Oil prices are still getting down sharply this morning, by -2.5%.
The Brent is 44.24 USD
The WTI at 39.3 USD.

As said in the previous article in Regnum, they planned their 2015 budget based on a 90 USD basis.
This is just a MEGA catastrophy for them.
The cost price of the off-shore oil of the BP must not be far from 30 USD.
That is, if things remain this way or even get worse, they are just offering their oil for free.....

[londontsi]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Oil prices are still getting down sharply this morning, by -2.5%.
The Brent is 44.24 USD
The WTI at 39.3 USD.

As said in the previous article in Regnum, they planned their 2015 budget based on a 90 USD basis.
This is just a MEGA catastrophy for them.
The cost price of the off-shore oil of the BP must not be far from 30 USD.
That is, if things remain this way or even get worse, they are just offering their oil for free.....

I do not dispute what you are saying.

The reason for posting this is the fact that Azerbaijan is far better placed with its infrastructure, ignoring politics for a moment,
to take advantage of Iranian gas being available to Europe.

I was also in an oblique way pouring water on all the excitement about gas pipeline through Armenia etc.

I am not for a moment suggesting that Azerbaijan's economy will not hit the rocks, its a matter of time.
Then, they can join us to live on borrowed money.

Maybe the best way to live in peace, assuming bankers will not lend money to conduct wars.

.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

I do not dispute what you are saying.

The reason for posting this is the fact that Azerbaijan is far better placed with its infrastructure, ignoring politics for a moment,
to take advantage of Iranian gas being available to Europe.

I was also in an oblique way pouring water on all the excitement about gas pipeline through Armenia etc.

I am not for a moment suggesting that Azerbaijan's economy will not hit the rocks, its a matter of time.
Then, they can join us to live on borrowed money.

Maybe the best way to live in peace, assuming bankers will not lend money to conduct wars.

.

If they had a choice, it is certain than Iran would have opted for Armenia/Georgia/Black Sea option.
The reason this may not be their choice, is the Russian veto on Armenia.

Now Baku can dream of their option.
It has the main advantage of minimal investment for Iran, since a small shortcut in Taloshistan might let them to access to the azeri lines, via Georgia and Turkey...
But yet again, this is the worst option for them given their mutual distrust..

Iran might thus opt for a direct Turkey option.
But yet again, while the actual proxy war they are in Syria and Irak, and the possible insecurity in Kurdistan for coming years... it is not that simple.

-----
So the Azari option for Iranian gas is not as likely, as the azaris might like to show, given their actual dire situation....

[Mher]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

The outlook has to be looking very frightening and uncertain for the leadership of Azerbaijan at the moment. This is why our foreign policy, our ability to have maximized our defenses, our armed forces, is so important. Now, and in the coming year, is the time Azerbaijan would want a war. With their weapons at the peak, and with the leadership desperately needing to suppress dissent, war would be ideal for them. However given our preparation it seems they are certain nothing will come from it, and that's why they refrain from starting.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Կարսում պայթեցրել են Բաքու-Թբիլիսի-Կարին գազատարի մի հատված

https://www.yerkir.am/news/view/91360.html

25 Օգոստոսի 2015,

Կարսում պայթեցրել են Բաքու-Թբիլիսի-Կարին գազատարի մի հատված
Այժմյան Թուրքիայի տարածքում գտնվոց Կարս նահանգում պայթեցվել է Բաքու-Թբիլիսի-Կարին (Էրզրում) գազատարի մի հատված:

Ըստ Haberturk-ի՝ պայթյունն իրականացրել են Քրդական բանվորական կուսակցության զինյալները:

Ներկայումս գազի հոսքն այդ խողովակաշարով դադարեցվել է:

[Joseph]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

I'm headed to Angola next week- my company is working on petroleum related projects. Angola has large oil (as well as mineral reserves), second only to Nigeria in the African continent. More Angola fields, etc are coming online. This will probably effect Russia, Kazakh and Azeri oil prices.

[Mher]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

I'm headed to Angola next week- my company is working on petroleum related projects. Angola has large oil (as well as mineral reserves), second only to Nigeria in the African continent. More Angola fields, etc are coming online. This will probably effect Russia, Kazakh and Azeri oil prices.

The situation here in Armenia is starting to look nervous. Two days ago dollar exchange rate was up to 485. Yesterday the central bank intervened 50 million USD, a dramatic move by Armenian standards. I would rather not see oil go down anymore than what it has. If it goes into the 30s, the Ruble and the Russian economy might collapse with it, and with that Armenia. I rather see Azerbaijan bleed out slowly over two to three years, and Armenia continue unscratched, than have Azerbaijan collapse by 2016 because Armenia won't be far behind in that case.

[Haykakan]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

The situation here in Armenia is starting to look nervous. Two days ago dollar exchange rate was up to 485. Yesterday the central bank intervened 50 million USD, a dramatic move by Armenian standards. I would rather not see oil go down anymore than what it has. If it goes into the 30s, the Ruble and the Russian economy might collapse with it, and with that Armenia. I rather see Azerbaijan bleed out slowly over two to three years, and Armenia continue unscratched, than have Azerbaijan collapse by 2016 because Armenia won't be far behind in that case.

I think the diaspora has opportunity here to play a very important role. We can support Armenia in her time of need by going there and spending money. Staying and spending in Hayastan is a great deal for diasporans coming from the west because of the currency situation. Fall happens to be one of the best times to go to Hayastan as the hot weather cools and the harvest is in full swing.

[UrMistake]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

I think the diaspora has opportunity here to play a very important role. We can support Armenia in her time of need by going there and spending money. Staying and spending in Hayastan is a great deal for diasporans coming from the west because of the currency situation. Fall happens to be one of the best times to go to Hayastan as the hot weather cools and the harvest is in full swing.

Hell yeah 2016 MY EVERY CENT WILL GO TO ARMENIA

[Artashes]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Hell yeah 2016 MY EVERY CENT WILL GO TO ARMENIA

Beautiful.

The situation here in Armenia is starting to look nervous. Two days ago dollar exchange rate was up to 485. Yesterday the central bank intervened 50 million USD, a dramatic move by Armenian standards. I would rather not see oil go down anymore than what it has. If it goes into the 30s, the Ruble and the Russian economy might collapse with it, and with that Armenia. I rather see Azerbaijan bleed out slowly over two to three years, and Armenia continue unscratched, than have Azerbaijan collapse by 2016 because Armenia won't be far behind in that case.

The Russian ruble might collapse.
Thanks for modifying with the word "might".
My personal opinion is that's not going to happen.
Tough times for Russia and all sucked in to this manipulation, but Russian "resources" are too deep.
--- way too deep ---
They can be totally shut out and still eek a miserable existence. And that's what they'll do before they buckle to the USA/euro hard court press being applied , live and in color (real time).
They have shown this before.
The money game (west
Et al) is harsh, but it won't break them.