Energy in Azerbaijan

[Azad]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Many market analysts are mentioning $42

"Oil is heading to $42 after speculators throw in the towel

Kilduff, a longtime bear and skeptic of OPEC's deal to curb production, said oil's more than 5 percent plunge to roughly three-month lows on Wednesday was the final nail in the coffin for speculators. The high trading volume indicates they are selling out of their bullish positions, he said.

Kilduff sees U.S. crude hitting $42 by the end of April, and said it could dip below $40."

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/09/oil-is-heading-to-42-as-speculators-throw-in-towel-says-john-kilduff.html

[Azad]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

U.S. crude hitting $42 by the end of April, and said it could dip below $40

https://cdn.rt.com/files/2017.02/original/58ac692ac46188827f8b459f.jpg

[Azad]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

"Azerbaijan risks gas pipeline loans by quitting transparency monitor

Baku reacts to suspension for failing to address civil rights concerns
Azerbaijan has withdrawn from an international transparency watchdog in a move that jeopardises billions of dollars of loans for a gas pipeline to Europe.
The withdrawal throws into doubt current and future financing for Azerbaijan’s contribution to the $46bn Southern Gas Corridor pipeline to connect its Caspian Sea gasfields to European markets."

https://www.ft.com/content/4fad74e8-056c-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9

I believe their oil fund has $33bn left if they are honest with their numbers.

[londontsi]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Oil collapses after OPEC report shows jump in Saudi output

https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-collapses-after-opec-report-shows-jump-in-saudi-output-465958

Investing.com - Oil prices reversed overnight gains during North American morning hours on Tuesday, falling to a fresh four-month low after a report showed Saudi Arabia raised output back above 10 million barrels a day in February, underlining concerns over a global supply glut.

The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude April contract sank to a session low of $47.66 a barrel, a level not seen since November 30. It was last at $47.80 by 8:30AM ET (12:30GMT), down 60 cents, or around 1.2%.

Elsewhere, Brent oil for May delivery on the ICE Futures Exchange in London dipped 50 cents to $50.85 a barrel. The global benchmark touched a session low of $50.61 earlier, its cheapest since November 30.

In its monthly oil market outlook released earlier, OPEC said its members pumped 31.95 million barrels per day in January, down 139,500 barrels per day from January.

However, Saudi Arabia boosted production by 263,300 barrels a day to 10.011 million a day, reversing about a third of the cuts it made the previous month.

January 1 marked the official start of the deal agreed by OPEC and non-OPEC member countries such as Russia in November last year to reduce output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day to 32.5 million for the next six months.

Kuwait is scheduled to host a ministerial meeting on March 26 comprising both OPEC and non-OPEC members to review compliance with the output agreement and to discuss whether cuts would be extended beyond June.

Investors now looked ahead to weekly data from the U.S. on stockpiles of crude and refined products.

Industry group the American Petroleum Institute is due to release its weekly report at 4:30PM ET (20:30GMT) later on Tuesday. Official data from the Energy Information Administration will be released Wednesday, amid forecasts for an oil-stock rise of 3.2 million barrels.

Last week's numbers showed U.S. output helped boost crude inventories to record highs, feeding concerns about a global glut.

Elsewhere on Nymex, gasoline futures for April shed 0.2 cents, or around 0.2%, to $1.492 a gallon, while April heating oil slipped 0.9 cents to $1.491 a gallon.

Natural gas futures for April delivery declined 1.6 cents to $3.027 per million British thermal units.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

http://razm.info/98350

oil factor for asarbaitchan in 2016
the best comprehensive analysis posted yet

[Shant03]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Vrej, I read through that entire article on Razm, some of it went over my head to be honest but from what I understand it is essentially detailing the lack of oil reserves. Anything else significant that I missed?

It mentions something about oil being in Artsakh but i didn't fully understand that part either.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Vrej, I read through that entire article on Razm, some of it went over my head to be honest but from what I understand it is essentially detailing the lack of oil reserves. Anything else significant that I missed?

It mentions something about oil being in Artsakh but i didn't fully understand that part either.

- The most interesting part is the estimation of the real cost of extracted oil. I have never seen such this estimations yet. Till now I was given cost of extractions higher than what we have here, and frankly speaking I am surprised manpower (positive effect of devaluation of the manat) was such a leverage.

- No talk of oil in Artsakh. It's just that they happen to name the would be oil fields off shore by imaginary names> So they can name one karapakh, the other Nakhitchevan, they may also name Yerevan...

- Ineteresting too the sharing of revenues between BP/state..

[Azad]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

" Moody's says Kazakhstan more resilient than Azerbaijan in adjustment to lower oil prices

- Azerbaijan is more vulnerable to low oil price, given that its economy is more than three and a half times smaller and half as wealthy

- Geopolitics are more of a risk in Azerbaijan due to its ongoing conflict with Armenia over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh

https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Kazakhstan-more-resilient-than-Azerbaijan-in-adjustment-to-lower--PR_363785

[Azad]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

" 'I think something really big is brewing in oil'

In the late fall of 2014, Pal correctly predicted that oil (CL=F) would fall to $40 a barrel. He now thinks the price could fall to $30."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/raoul-pal-i-think-something-really-big-is-brewing-in-oil-195744686.html

Aliyev's reaction

http://www.gettyimages.com/event/ex-azerbaijan-leader-geidar-aliev-dies-at-the-age-of-80-2806785?esource=SEO_GIS_CDN_Redirect#azerbaijani-president-ilham-aliev-and-his-wife-mekhriban-react-during-picture-id2812568

[Azad]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Trying to make sense of the Russian deal with “turkish Stream” gas pipeline and how it is going to effect the “TANAP” (azeri) pipeline being constructed.

Info on “Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline” the azeri pipeline with 58 percent ownership.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Anatolian_gas_pipeline

“The construction of Turkish Stream is set to begin in 2017, and should be completed by late 2019.” The Russian/turkish pipeline.

https://www.rt.com/news/368953-turkey-deal-russia-stream/

The azeri TANAP pipeline is going slow most of the construction is being done on the other end, by Greece and Albania according to this azeri site. See all the articles at the bottom of the page. It is all about Greece and Albania.

http://www.azernews.az/oil_and_gas/105257.html

Map of the two pipelines competing for the same markets.

https://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/TurkGasPipe-webfig.png

Before this Russian/turkish deal the azeris where crying and is shock few months ago.
“Turkish Stream unlikely to join TANAP
With [Azerbaijani state oil company] SOCAR being a major stakeholder in TANAP, notably owing 58 percent, it is highly unlikely to approve such a proposal which will undermine its own future prospects to pump more gas to Europe after fully developing the second and third phase of its Shah Deniz gas field,” Marazis told Trend by email.

At the same time Brussels will not be enthusiastic about such a possibility given its Energy Security Strategy which prioritizes diversification of supplier countries and routes, the expert noted.

Earlier, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu proposed to connect the Russia-developed Turkish Stream pipeline which envisages Russian gas supplies to Turkey and further to Europe bypassing Ukraine to the TANAP pipeline…

http://en.trend.az/business/energy/2657699.html

Than you have the shattered dreams of the shekel boys for a free ride.

http://en.trend.az/business/energy/2681762.html

From my conclusion it looks like the azeris got a royal turkish stick up their xxx?

"The Azerbaijan Stream- Kyiv’s Unrealizable Dream

A meeting of the Ukrainian-Azerbaijani group on energy cooperation was held this month, during which the diversification of routes for delivery of Azerbaijani hydrocarbons to the European and world markets was discussed. The Ukrainian authorities seem to be beginning to realize that in the near future they may completely lose the transit of Russian gas through their territory, but the idea of ensuring the loading of a gas transportation system with the help of Azerbaijan is unlikely to promise any real prospects for Kyiv.

Leading expert of the Energy Security Fund, Igor Yushkov, says “Azerbaijani gas today has two ways into Europe: through the Balkans and through Russia. The second of these routes is complicated by the well-known transit policy of Gazprom: first to purchase gas from a third country, and then to transport it”.

"If Azerbaijan wants to supply gas to Ukraine, then it must first sell it to Gazprom, not to mention the Russian-Ukrainian gas supply contract, which Kyiv does not want to fulfill, and which has become the subject of proceedings in Stockholm,” Yushkov adds.

Therefore, for the Azerbaijani gas there remains only the southern route to Europe - through Turkey and Romania. In Yushkov's opinion, theoretically, Ukraine can buy gas from Azerbaijan and then drive it through Turkey and all the Balkans to feed the south-western regions of the country. However, in practice, this is impossible because Baku does not have excess gas - otherwise, these extra volumes would have been delivered to Europe long ago, since the EU leadership wants to diversify gas suppliers to its domestic market.

At present, the construction of the transadriatic gas pipeline TAP-TANAP is under way, which will supply Azerbaijani gas to Europe, but its capacity, as Yushkov says, is only 20 billion cubic meters, half of which will go to the Turkish market, and the lion's share of the remaining gas (8 billion cubic meters) will be sent to Italy. The rest will be equally divided between Greece and Bulgaria. "All this allows us to conclude that Azerbaijan simply cannot physically extract the 8-10 billion cubic meters of gas necessary for Ukraine."

http://georgiatoday.ge/news/6294/The-Azerbaijan-Stream--Kyiv’s-Unrealizable-Dream

^^^ In response to all the obstacles the azeris still have high hopes.

"Azerbaijan president: gas pipeline to EU will not be stopped

“The implementation of the Southern Gas Corridor is already a reality. True, there are those who want to prevent us. It is natural. We came across these ten years ago,” said Aliyev, as reported by the Azerbaijan Press Agency on Tuesday.

The Southern Gas Corridor is one of the world’s largest fossil fuel projects, with a projected construction cost of $46bn.

It is opposed by environmental and human rights groups on the basis it will lock in fossil fuel dependence and its construction across Georgia, Turkey, Greece, Albania and Italy will expose communities to forced relocations and disruption.

Last month, Azerbaijan was suspended from the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), a global watchdog that sets standards for human rights in countries where the fossil fuel industry operates. Aliyev’s autocratic government had failed to ease pressure on civil society groups, despite repeated warnings from the EITI board."

http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/04/11/azerbaijan-president-gas-pipeline-eu-will-not-stopped/

They are even kissing Georgian asz now

"Azerbaijan to fully meet Georgia's demand for gas"