The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Perhaps we are witnessing one of the more positive consequences of big power politics in the Caucasus region: the realization that a stable and powerful Armenia is in the interests of the superpowers. Perhaps the West realizes that a Russian-backed Armenia can potentially cause a lot of troubles in the region. What's more, it is no secret that Moscow realizes that the only way to keep Georgia, Azerbaijan and NATO in check is by keeping Yerevan close. Without doubt, this is a very delicate game. There are many variables and factors at play here. Thus far, however, it seems as if Armenia's hold on Artsakh somehow fits into the region's geopolitical formulations.

Armenian

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RUSSIA SUPPORTS THE STABILITY OF ARMENIAN

Karasin Hopes for Minsk Group Format to be Preserved

On March 18-20 Secretary of State of the Russian Fedration Grigory Karfasin was on an official visit to Yerevan. On a yesterday press-conference at Armenia-Marriott Hotel Karasin informed the reporters that he had meetings with the President, Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Armenia. From a number of issues discussed on the meetings, the Russian Secretary of State pointed out the question of Armenia-Russia cooperation, which is steadily developing in the spheres of politics, culture and education. He stated that Armenia and Russia remain allies and that Russia pays equal attention to all formats of partnership with Armenia.

Another important topic discussed on Karasin’s meetings with the top highest officials of Armenia, were the events succeeding the presidential elections of February 19. "Russia is by no means indifferent towards the development of inner political situation in an allied state. We take for granted that any political problem must be settled through dialogue and in accordance with the Law, and that disturbances and chaos in the streets are harmful for any state. I am sure that the March 1-2 events showed the Armenian citizens, how dangerous that path can be. It cannot lead to any solution, but bring the country to instability and discouragement," assured Grigory Karasin.

To Karasin’s opinion, both the President and the Prime Minister of Armenia perfectly realize the situation and are able to control it, as well as they have distinct plans of involving the constructive opposition in the legal processes. The Russian representative expressed hope that due to this notions Armenia shall soon return to stability and predictability. Karasin also suggested that the Armenian statehood has already passed through that perilous period and is heading towards the times of political reforms and dialogue. Referring to the peace process on Nagorno-Karabakh and the armistice break in March, Karasin said that there is still progress and emphasized that due to the efforts of both the conflicting sides and the interference of the Minsk Group, meetings of the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan are regularly held, unlike other conflicts in the post-Soviet area. "We were disturbed by the incident on the frontline in early March. It is pleasure that it was localized and by efforts from both the sides," Karasin said.

He also remained that the Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group were against the Resolution, passed by Azerbaijan in the UN General Assembly. "Such rapid initiatives in international structures, moreover as influential as the UN, can hardly have any positive results, what was fairly proved with the voting," added the Secretary of State. He said he hopes that the peace process on Karabakh shall keep on going in the same format, the Minsk Group intermediation, and that an intergovernmental Armenia-Azerbaijan meeting shall be organized. The Russian official explained that he decided not to meet with opposition representatives, as the information provided by the President, Prime Minister and Foreign Minister was quite sufficient. "We know, what they think in the opposition camp. We have an embassy here, and friends, in all the spheres of political and social life. No need to doubt whether we possess all necessary information or no," he concluded.

Source: http://www.azg.am/EN/2008032101

Russia and U.S. not interested in return of territories to Azerbaijan

Recognition of Nagorno Karabakh’s independence doesn’t conflict with international interests, NKR former Deputy Foreign Minister Arman Melikyan said. “We can initiate the recognition process. I am confident that recognition of Nagrono Karabakh by Armenia will cause chain reaction,” he said. “Russia and U.S. are not interested in return of territories to Azerbaijan. It’s not in our interests either. We should grant Karabakhi citizenship to Armenian refugees from Azerbaijan, who can populate these lands,” he said. “The negotiation process meets the interests of the EU, which a rival for the United States in the issue. However, weakening of the U.S. influence in the region will not affect the situation, since Russia and U.S. coincide on Karabakh,” Melikyan said, Novosti Armenia reports.

Source: http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=25454

Robert Kocharyan: Armenia may recognize Nagorno-Karabakh

If Baku continues implementing its current policy, Yerevan will respond by recognition of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and sign with it agreements, particularly, in the defense field. Acting president of Armenia Robert Kocharyan made the statement while talking to journalists on March 20. REGNUM correspondent quotes Kocharyan to say that present activity of Azerbaijan in international organizations is due to the Kosovo problem. In particular, Azerbaijan is aiming to create a balance to the Kosovo precedent and demonstrate that Kosovo cannot be a precedent for Karabakh. “The NKR has more rights for independence than Kosovo,” Kocharyan stressed, detailing that Karabakh, among other accomplishments, has state organizations, independently guards its borders, and has earlier than Kosovo started the process of gaining independence. Speaking of the Baku's initiative to dissolve the OSCE Minsk Group, the Armenia's head of state has said the group is the best existing peace and negotiation-facilitating format, as for the moment. “If the Azerbaijani side is not happy with the format, it does not mean that we have to destroy it. If they do not want to negotiate, they are free not to do it,” the Armenian head of state noted. He has added that Baku should rather think of the future and of who will be responsible for the further developments, if its scenario is chosen.

Source: http://www.regnum.ru/english/974134.html

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

CHINA AND RUSSIA: THE GENDARMES OF EURASIA

China’s crackdown on protesters in Tibet is potentially setting a precedent for members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. At least 13 deaths have been reported in connection with the anti-government protests, which have spread from the Tibetan Autonomous Republic to other areas of China with significant concentrations of ethnic Tibetans. China has barred foreign journalists from traveling to Lhasa, and Chinese officials have lashed out at Western news accounts of events in Tibet. In Beijing’s view, the trouble has no connection to official efforts to culturally assimilate the country’s minority groups, but is instead solely the result of trouble-making by the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader. Chinese leaders have interpreted developments in Tibet in a way that can classify the Tibetan protesters as secessionists. Such a definition in theory enables China to invoke a provision in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) charter, under which it can summon aid from other members in order to deal with the security threat. China, of course, is unlikely to issue such a call for assistance. Even so, other SCO members have quickly come to Beijing’s defense.

Russia has been the most prominent supporter of China’s actions in Tibet. On March 17, Moscow applauded China’s determined effort to suppress “unlawful actions” in the autonomous region. The next day, in an article published in Rossiiskaya Gazeta, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed that the unrest in Tibet was linked to Kosovo’s declaration of independence. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. “There are grounds to believe that all this happens not by chance," Lavrov said. “The situation in Kosovo is the most vivid example of ethnic separatism," Lavrov continued. “Developments in other parts of the world also make it possible to suppose that we are witnessing only the beginning of an utterly explosive process." Russia’s strong show of support for China suggests that the two states might intervene in the event that anti-government protests broke out in one of the SCO member states in Central Asia. The possibility of such unrest in the region is not so far-fetched.

The state of Uzbekistan’s economy has some observers believing that Tashkent remains a potential site of unrest, despite the appearance of Islam Karimov’s regime being in complete control. Kyrgyzstan, or course, has been a hotbed of instability since the 2005 ouster of former president Askar Akayev. And Tajikistan, where the economic infrastructure came crashing down during the harshest winter in a generation, also can be counted as a potential candidate for anti-government protests. There is good reason to believe that if unrest breaks out in Central Asia -- whether it is connected to a rigged election, an unexpected succession or the implosion of the economy -- the Chinese crackdown in Tibet can provide a repression blueprint. China and Russia have already used the SCO to prepare for several possible contingencies. The SCO’s Peace Mission military exercises in 2007, for example, dealt with a possible militant uprising, as well as with a refugee scenario. Thus, specific response plans for several different Central Asian scenarios would seem to exist. Russia, naturally, is best positioned to lead a potential intervention in Central Asia. Under the auspices of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, Russia maintains bases in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. It also has the ability to quickly deploy troops to Uzbekistan under terms of a 2006 bilateral agreement.

It is possible to view the SCO, given its dedication to propping up the authoritarian order in Central Asia, as a present-day analogue to the Holy Alliance -- the 19th century entente in which Russia, Austria and Prussia dedicated themselves to the maintaining Europe’s then autocratic order. As the Tibetan example suggests, China and Russia, whether in Tibet or potentially in Central Asia, have eagerly embraced the role of gendarme of Eurasia.

Source: http://www.eurasianet.org/department...v032008a.shtml

In related news:

China trade to Russia through Manzhouli port up 27% in 2007

Trade to Russia through Manzhouli, China's largest land port in the northern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, topped 8.43 billion U.S. dollars in 2007, up 27percent from the previous year. Imports from Russia through the port totaled 7.44 billion U.S dollars, up 21.4 percent from the previous year. Exports to Russia increased 96 percent to 990 million U.S. dollars in 2007, according to Manzhouli customs on Thursday. Crude oil imports contributed to the trade boom. China imported more than nine million tons of crude worth 4.55 billion U.S. dollars via Manzhouli customs in 2007. It accounted for more than half of the total trade revenue. The imports mainly consisted of wood, crude oil and chemical products, while exports were mainly mechanical and electrical products, vegetables, fruits and textiles.

Source: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/20...nt_7828900.htm

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Central Asia: Gazprom Deal Imperils Hopes For Trans-Caspian Pipeline

A landmark deal reached this month between Russian gas giant Gazprom and three energy-rich Central Asian states is likely to usher in dramatically higher prices for countries reliant on Russia for their natural gas. The agreement will virtually double the price of gas in 2009 and could signal the end of European plans to transport gas across the Caspian Sea and away from Russian control. Gazprom's desire has been to maintain as much control over the export of Central Asian energy resources as it can -- and this deal, bringing Central Asia's energy exporters closer to Gazprom, seems to guarantee that such control will last well into the foreseeable future. Gazprom CEO Aleksei Miller agreed on March 11 with the heads of state-controlled gas companies from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan that those countries will receive "European prices" for their deliveries in 2009 -- somewhere between $350 and $400 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas. That is more than double the price that Gazprom is currently paying for Central Asian gas, spelling huge new profits for Kazmunaigaz, Uzbekneftegaz, and Turkmengaz. The deal is likely to hit European consumers soon after the new prices kick in on January 1.

New Tack

It was a surprising move for Gazprom, which runs all the current functioning gas pipelines running out of Central Asia except for one modest pipeline between Turkmenistan and Iran and a partially opened pipeline between Kazakhstan and China. Mindful of its virtual monopoly on the region's gas exports, Gazprom had spent more than a decade resisting calls for higher prices and signing long-term contracts at below-market prices. Gazprom was paying Central Asian states less than $70 per 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas at the start of 2006. Less than 12 months later, Gazprom had agreed to pay $100 per 1,000 cubic meters for 2007; by the end of this year, the figure will rise to $150. Uzbekneftegaz's Sobir Salimov tells RFE/RL's Uzbek Service that as far as Uzbekistan is concerned, Gazprom has finally made the right decision. "Prices were always different. We had one price, the Turkmen had another. And if we say $120, you know that Russia sells it for $300," Salimov says. "Uzbekistan is now strengthening its position to balance this situation. Uzbekistan will remain firm on this position and if we stay firm Gazprom will have to accept it." The view was similarly positive from KazMunaiGaz spokesman Arzhan Takachev, who expressed the satisfaction of all three Central Asian countries at the new Gazprom price for their gas. "We had a situation where we were not able to sell our gas at prices that suited us, and finally we came to an agreement with Gazprom," Takachev says. "This matter is in the common interest of all three republics, and it was a common initiative inasmuch as the gas from our three countries goes through Russia, so all the [Central Asian] parties had an interest [in higher prices]."

Aiming High

Numerous articles in the Russian press put the "European price" for natural gas this year at $300-$350 per 1,000 cubic meters, with some forecasts of $400 by year-end. Russian analysts said that by hiking the price it pays for gas, Gazprom will see a cut in its profits. But many -- like Matthew Clements, the Eurasia editor at London-based Jane's Information Group -- also expect Gazprom to defray some of the increased expenses by passing the cost on to consumers. "It's obviously Gazprom who is the intermediary and who is going to be buying the Central Asian gas and pushing it forward on to Western customers and who is going to be making its own profits," Clements says. "And obviously if it's facing increased supply costs, it's going to be increasing its own prices for the Western customers." Most European consumers already pay "European" prices for Gazprom's gas. But within the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) there are countries that have enjoyed beneficial pricing for their gas imports. One is Ukraine, which this year is paying $179.50 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas. Aleksandr Yakovlev, an analyst for the RosBusiness Consulting Center in Moscow, notes that Ukraine buys its gas from Turkmenistan and tells RFE/RL's Turkmen Service that Gazprom is unlikely to give Ukraine any more special deals on gas. "From Gazprom's point of view, they are not losing anything," Yakovlev says. Gazprom "will load those expenses on the shoulders of Ukrainian consumers."

Oleksy Ivchenko, the former director of Ukrainian national gas company Naftohaz Ukrayiny, tells RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service that the country can cope with higher prices stemming from the recent deal. "This will not create a major problem for Ukraine. The Ukrainian economy is ready today to buy gas at European prices," Ivchenko says. "The only thing that the scheme of delivery should mean is that the price of gas for Ukraine has to be balanced with the transit-fee payments: the European price for gas minus the [Western] European transit fee." Clements disagrees with Ivchenko regarding Ukraine's ability to pay $300-$400 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas. "I think there's going to be serious concerns for the Ukrainian economy for this kind of rise [in price]," he says. "Last year the Ukrainians were putting forward figures of less than $200 for 1,000 cubic meters, which the economy could safely absorb. It's already $179 for this year; if it goes much beyond this, then the Ukrainian economy is going to face some pretty severe difficulties." Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko had tried to reach a four-year agreement with Gazprom that would allow a gradual increase in gas prices for her country. But Gazprom said on March 13 that it had agreed with Ukraine that gas supplies for January and February would be charged at $315 per 1,000 cubic meters, but for the remainder of the year the price will be $179.50 per 1,000 cubic meters.

Watching Closely

Two other CIS countries, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, were closely watching Tymoshenko's talks with Gazprom. They both receive their gas from Uzbekistan via agreements that are renegotiated every year. This year, the two countries are paying Uzbekistan $145 per 1,000 cubic meters, while before 2006 they were paying less than $50. Despite their potential to generate hydroelectric power, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are several years away from being able to replace Uzbek natural gas with their own sources of power. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are often behind on their payments to Uzbekistan and therefore face regular reductions and even cutoffs of Uzbek gas. Bazarbai Mambetov, the president of Kyrgyzstan's Oil Traders Association and a former deputy prime minister, tells RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service that Kyrgyzstan would not be able to afford the "European" prices proposed by Gazprom. "I heard on television that [Aleksei] Miller of Russia's Gazprom will travel to Central Asia and that the Central Asian gas price will double next year," Mambetov says. "If the price doubles, then it will be about $300. We don't have the ability and money to buy it for $300 per 1,000 cubic meters."

Shaukat Shoimov, the deputy director of state-owned Tojikgaz, tells RFE/RL's Tajik Service that Tajik officials were following the Gazprom deal but would not react until later, when gas talks with Uzbekistan would be held. Shoimov says the Uzbek side had not "said anything so far." "I heard the report about this [Gazprom deal], but we have not received any official news yet," Shoimov says, "so all we can say is that they didn't inform us officially [of a price increase]." Tajikistan is the poorest of post-Soviet Central Asia's five republics, and consumers are likely to be hard-hit by any significant increase in utilities prices. A resident of Dushanbe tells RFE/RL's Tajik Service that a gas-price rise would "severely affect" Tajiks. But he adds that Uzbekistan frequently shuts off gas supplies in any event. "Even when we pay for gas in advance, they don't provide gas regularly -- for example, they would give us gas for one month and then for one month they wouldn't," he says. "[Price increases] will be hard for people, and they will suffer more. We already have small salaries, and if they increase gas prices people won't know what to do. If gas prices rose, it would severely affect us and we would suffer."

East And West

China is another important consumer of Central Asian gas. Beijing has contracts for natural-gas supplies from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, and China is helping pay to develop gas fields and construct pipelines to bring the gas thousands of kilometers eastward to help fuel its economic boom. China has signed multidecade contracts with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan for huge amounts of gas, but Clements of Jane's Information Group says that does not necessarily mean the price won't change. "The Central Asian states have previously shown a willingness to renege on these contracts," he says. "Certainly Turkmenistan has done it to Russia, so why would they not do it to China as well?" Clements adds that Central Asian countries will be cautious in talks with their giant eastern neighbor, especially since Russia is also competing to sell China gas. Foremost among those who want to bring more Central Asian gas to their market is the European Union, for whom the Gazprom deal changes the calculus. With strong support from Washington, the EU has been increasing efforts for proposed trans-Caspian pipelines to be built to better connect Central Asian energy resources to Europe, minus Russia as a middleman. Recent EU efforts have helped push relations between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to new heights, raising hopes for the construction of a pipeline from the eastern side of the Caspian that would eventually go to Europe.

Russian newspapers have suggested that the Gazprom deal eliminates some of the incentive for Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan to get involved in EU pipeline plans. From those countries' point of view, that reasoning goes, the main problem with gas exports to Russia was always the low prices paid by Gazprom. With that problem solved, Russian newspapers have predicted that projects like the proposed Nabucco pipeline -- which would bring Caspian Basin gas to Europe without traversing Russia -- are doomed. Clements says that for Russia, this month's Gazprom deal is the culmination of a process that has been under way for some time. He calls it "part of a long-term process that Russia has been undertaking to make sure that Europe doesn't find any alternative sources of energy away from its pipeline monopoly." Clements says EU pipeline plans were not necessarily doomed, however, pointing out that a Caspian pipeline was still in Europe's interest irrespective of price. "I wouldn't say it completely kills the plans," he says. "I think the European desire is not so much cheaper gas -- it's to get gas that isn't completely controlled by Russia from its source to [Europe]."

Source: http://www.turkishweekly.net/news.php?id=53627#

In related news:

Bolivia and Gazprom sign gas exploration deal

Bolivia hopes to meet its supply commitments to neighboring countries now that a natural gas prospecting deal has been signed with Russia's Gazprom, Argentina's Telam news agency said on Tuesday. Under the agreement signed in La Paz on Monday, exploration will be carried out at the Sunchal natural gas field in the south of the country. Bolivia has the second largest gas reserves in South America after Venezuela, with proven reserves of 680 billion cubic meters. "The agreement signed by Russia's Gazprom and the Bolivian state energy company YPFB will allow an increase in deliveries to neighboring countries, primarily Argentina and Brazil," Telam quoted Bolivian President Evo Morales as saying. Brazil currently requires between 27 and 30 million cubic meters of gas daily, while Argentina, which under contracts signed with Bolivia should receive 7.7 million cu m, receives some 3 million cu m of Bolivian gas a day. Experts had earlier expressed doubts that Bolivia would be able to comply with its contract commitments to its neighbors and simultaneously meet the growing domestic demand without new oil and gas deposits being commissioned. The Gazprom contract, signed by YPFB President Santos Ramirez and the Gazprom representative for Latin America, Stanislav Tsygankov, is a follow up to memorandum of understanding that the companies signed in February 2007 for prospecting and infrastructure projects as well as the training of staff. While working to boost its presence in Europe, Gazprom is also increasingly looking to South American markets. The focus is on cooperation talks with Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela, who jointly plan to build a transcontinental pipeline which will also cross Bolivia.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/business/20080318/101566134.html

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Sukhumi: Reconnaissance aircraft shot down in Abkhazia belonged to Georgia

Officers of Abkhazian defense ministry showed to journalists wreckage of aircraft found in the Black sea, REGNUM correspondent has reported. It consisted of a plane wing and fuselage fragments. It has been established that the aircraft was Israeli-made and belonged to Georgian Air Force, Abkhazia's deputy minister of defense Garri Kupalba informed. In his words, unmanned reconnaissance aircraft of Georgian Air Force started to fly over the territory of Abkhazia since last summer. He said that Abkhazian officials have repeatedly informed Collective Peace-Keeping Forces and UN Mission in Georgia about the flights. He reminded that in August 2007, an aircraft detected in the republic's airspace was shot down at Nagvalou, Abkhazia. On March 18, Abkhazian Air Force shot down an unmanned reconnaissance aircraft “that had come from the territory of Georgia.” Secretary of Abkhazia's Security Council Stanislav Lakoba told journalists that “the flying object was noticed in Abkhazian airspace at midday.” The plane was shot down by an Abkhazian Air Force jet fighter near the Primorskoye village at the border of Ochamchir and Gal regions and fell in the sea.

Source: http://www.regnum.ru/english/973137.html

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russia hit by tank crisis

Although warfare featuring tank armadas over vast territories is already a thing of the past, armor still remains the main striking force of modern armies. Requirements for any new tank are protection, mobility, and fire power. Historically, Russia has always tackled these problems by developing new models and continuing to exploit existing ones. For that reason its armed forces today are an amazing mix of all types of tanks, something not seen anywhere else in the world. Their maintenance costs are enormous.

General of the Army Nikolai Makarov, chief of armaments, looks forward to a breakthrough in tank building soon. In 2009, the Russian Army will get a new tank - the T-95 - far superior to existing models. This is an entirely new battle tank, with new running gear, power plant, armaments, fire control, reconnaissance and target identification facilities. The tank is currently undergoing tests, expected to be completed this year. Its adoption for service will, hopefully, bring the long-awaited unification to this sphere. Russia's is the only army in the world using two types of main battle tank: the gas turbine T-80 (T-80U) and the diesel-powered tank T-90 (T-90S). Both have the same weight, size and identical combat characteristics. Other types in service include the T-62, T-64, T-72 and their versions, and even the T-55.

This range of types creates many problems for providing fuel, lubricants, spare parts, tools, equipment and maintenance. It is also economically wasteful to maintain such diverse models. Large numbers of tanks and their ammunition require annual utilization, the funds for which have never been fully available. In a global perspective, tank building policy has remained unchanged since the 1960s and 1980s when the T-64, T-72 and T-80 were designed. A comparison of tank characteristics (including the T-80M1 Bars and advanced Black Eagle, which never reached the mass production stage) shows the hallmarks of "creeping" modernization. But since tanks have remained the main offensive factor for ground forces, many countries have been proactive in developing and manufacturing cutting edge anti-tank missiles. Equipped with non-contact fuses, they effectively penetrate all types of explosive reactive armor (ERA). Also under development are devices that disable the engine fuel system, rendering tanks immobile. Moreover, despite its high fire power, the modern tank is unable to deal with air attacks.

The fitting of Russian tanks with anti-tank missiles fired through the gun barrel has greatly increased the effectiveness of tank armament. Its kill radius is now over five kilometers. But this advantage is offset by the absence of up-to-date reconnaissance and observation systems (aerial, let alone space-based ones). The line of sight and fire are set so low that it is practically impossible to see and, moreover, aim at a target from the tank. Nor are there high-quality communications available, affecting control over tank units. So we can say that the "tank crisis" that has hit the Russian Army has been largely provoked by the diversity of its tank fleet. According to Commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces General of the Army Alexei Maslov, the ultimate solution is only possible in the long-term. He also does not conceal that Russian tanks are behind in using modern electronics. He said, "although work to develop a tank battlefield information management system (BIMS) is already underway, its installation on outdated models is too costly and therefore not recommended. The new equipment is planned to be mounted on newly designed armored vehicles."

The general said that even the T-90 (which is considered a modern unit and with which only the elite Kantemirovskaya and Tamanskaya tank divisions will be equipped by 2010) is outdated and no BIMS will be installed on it. That is to say, in battlefield conditions Russian tanks will still be shooting in the dark. Maybe the adoption of the T-95 will lighten the skies? Rumors of the new tank have been circulating for over 15 years. It was reportedly to have been adopted for service as early as 1994. There is also a hypothetical description of the tank. It is supposed to have an engine of no less than 1,500 hp, most likely multi-fueled and diesel-powered; a cannon 135 mm in caliber; active protection; and a control system that can be incorporated into the "digital battlefield" system. Its hull and turret are made of composite armor. A distinctive feature of the T-95 is its new layout with an uninhabited turret and a crew accommodation in an armored capsule. It is still difficult to judge whether the new battle vehicle will have all these features.

Russian bureaucrats have created many myths and legends about the survival of the nucleus of Russia's defense sector. Actually, its present condition is critical, and the reasons are well known. One is the aging of highly qualified production personnel, many of whom are approaching retirement age. Engineering school graduates are unwilling to take jobs in the defense sector because of low wages. No worker replacements are trained anywhere in the country either. Earlier, it was taboo to draft workers from defense factories into the army. Now this privilege is abandoned, and graduates of the few surviving vocational schools seek employment elsewhere, but not in the defense sector where receiving a foreign travel passport is a problem. Another problem is the aging of the equipment in the defense industry: its production lines and machine tools have long passed the 30-year limit. Many key technologies have been lost as have co-production links. The uncontrolled growth of energy costs is outstripping inflation and is well above the deflators provided by the Economic Development and Trade Ministry. It is obvious that the 2006-2015 government defense order will fall short in both the range and quality of products ordered.

Perhaps a factor contributing to the preservation of large-scale mass tank production in Russia will be the establishment of an armor holding, which began last fall. As a first step, it will embrace all incorporated plants headed by the research and production corporation Uralvagonzavod, which is 100% federally-owned. As the second step, the holding will include private enterprises, among them ChTZ-Uraltrak, which develops and manufactures diesel tank engines. But nearly all plants being incorporated into the holding call for massive economic rehabilitation and retooling. A lot here will depend on how active the state will be in this process. And still the situation is unlikely to be radically improved. Too many problems exist in the defense sector and in tank building specifically. There is little confidence, therefore, that plans for the new tank and its mass production will be translated into reality, at least not in the timeline announced.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080321/101944316.html

In related news:

Russia to deliver 24 Pantsir-S1 SAM systems in 2008

Russia will deliver 24 Pantsir S1 (NATO reporting name SA-22 Greyhound) anti-aircraft surface-to-air missile systems in 2008, a first deputy prime minister said on Friday. Sergei Ivanov said the missile manufacturer, the Tula-based Instrument Making Design Bureau (KPB), has so far signed contracts for a total of 64 systems. He added that the system has been tested both in Russia and abroad on a variety of targets, proving its high effectiveness. Ivanov did not say how many SAMs will be exported. However, KPB CEO Alexander Rybas said a delegation from Syria will arrive in Tula April 15 on a pre-delivery inspection visit. Pantsir-S1 is a short to medium range combined surface-to-air missile and anti-aircraft artillery weapon system mounted either on a variety of mobile or stationary platforms.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080321/101955300.html

[Lernakan]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Serzh Sargsyan visiting Moscow

On March 23-24, Armenia's president-elect Serzh Sargsyan is having a first working visit. Sargsyan is visiting Moscow, where he is meeting with president of Russia Vladimir Putin, president-elect Dmitry Medvedev, and prime minister Viktor Zubkov, REGNUM was informed at the Kremlin's press office. The meetings are expected to be held on Monday. According to the source, issues of cooperation between Armenia and Russia within CSTO and security issues in Transcaucasia are being discussed.

Inauguration of Serzh Sargsyan is due on April 9. Presidential election in Armenia was held on February 18, 2008. Prime minister of Armenia, leader of Republican Party Serzh Sargsyan won the vote with 52.86% of ballots.

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russia to double production of conventional weapons by 2015

Russia will more than double production of conventional weaponry by 2015, a first deputy prime minister said on Monday. "By 2010, we are planning to increase production [of conventional weapons] by 30%, and by 2015, we expect it to increase 120%," Sergei Ivanov said at a government meeting attended by President Vladimir Putin. The Russian government's Military-Industrial Commission will discuss on Tuesday a strategy for the development of defense enterprises manufacturing conventional weapons and government defense contracts for 2009. Russia is pursuing a government armament program for the period up to 2015, which envisions the procurement of weaponry for all branches of the Armed Forces. For instance, the Russian Air Force is supposed to receive 116 new and 408 upgraded aircraft for forward-deployed units, and 156 new and 372 modernized helicopters over the next eight years. Ivanov also said the share of civilian products manufactured by defense companies must reach 59% by 2015.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080324/102076793.html

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Military exercises underway in Abkhazia

General Anatoly Zaitsev, a first deputy Abkhaz defense minister, told journalists that the command post exercises would last until March 28. Although the area where the exercises are being held is not in the CIS peacekeepers' 'responsibility zone', both they and the UN mission were informed of the exercise in advance. The CIS is an alliance of former Soviet republics. On March 5, Abkhazia's armed forces completed large-scale five-day artillery and aviation exercises. The military exercise comes as tensions between Georgia and Abkhazia increase. In further developments on Monday, the Abkhaz parliamentary speaker said that his countrymen were ready to take up arms to defend Abkhazia from any hostile forces. "We are not afraid of anyone - not NATO, or anyone else. If we need to defend our homeland we will do so," Nugzar Ashuba said, just days after lawmakers in Abkhazia had signed a statement accusing Tbilisi of military aggression, and warning that war could break out in the Caucasus. In the statement, they called for urgent action from Russia, the United Nations, the OSCE and PACE to "influence the Georgian leadership so that it renounces military force or terrorist activity as means of solving political issues." Abkhazia's leadership earlier said its Air Force brought down an Israeli-made Georgian unmanned combat reconnaissance plane over its territory on March 18, and accused Georgia of repeatedly violating its airspace. Tbilisi has denied the reports. Russia's lower house of parliament adopted a statement a few days ago that recommended that Moscow speed up the recognition of Abkhazia and another Georgian de facto independent republic, South Ossetia. Peacekeeping in the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict zone is currently carried out by collective CIS forces staffed with Russian service personnel. Both Abkhazia and South Ossetia were involved in bloody conflicts with Georgia after proclaiming independence following the split-up of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/world/20080324/102090934.html

Nugzar Ashuba: Georgian and Abkhaz peoples cannot live in one country

“We have once tried to live in one state with Georgia, and are not going to try again,” speaker of Abkhazian parliament Nugzar Ashuba stated at a press conference in Moscow on March 24. Commenting on a REGNUM correspondent's question on how he views plans of a number of Georgian opposition politicians to create a confederation comprising Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Georgia, Ashuba said: “I congratulate Georgia if it is going to build a normal democratic state, but what does it have to do with Abkhazia? We were annexed to Georgia as late as in the Soviet times, by decision of Stalin and Beria. Abkhazia has nothing to do with Georgia,” Ashuba emphasized. “You Europeans can forgive your enemies, and we in the Caucasus are hot people, and we have the blood vengeance tradition largely preserved. And blood was spilled between us, several thousands of Abkhaz lads were killed. For this reason, we, unfortunately, are going to remain foes for the century to come,” the Abkhazian parliament speaker noted. “I think, if Georgia recognizes independence of our country, it will influence the situation of the Georgian and Abkhaz ethnicities positively. We have failed to live in one country. We have tried once and are not going to try again,” Ashuba stated.

Source: http://www.regnum.ru/english/975679.html

In related news:

Georgia unleashes terror against South Ossetia: Chochiyev

Terrorist act near the South Ossetian Okona village is nothing else than a terrorist aggression against South Ossetia, South Ossetian JCC co-chair Boris Chochiev told REGNUM correspondent while qualifying the incident of March 23. Chochiyev said that the terrorist act had been expected in South Ossetia. “A special program has been developed in Georgia to execute a whole series of terrorist acts targeted against the population of South Ossetia and peacekeepers. On March 21, our law-enforcement agencies found a cache full of weapons for maintaining terrorist activities in the republic's territory.” “I am sure that there are many such cashes, and the Georgian intelligence will not stop at that,” Chochiyev commented. He said that this time, “peacekeepers were targeted, to discredit the peacekeeping operation and destabilize the situation in the Georgian-Ossetian conflict zone.” To remind, a remotely-controlled land mind was detonated at about 11:30 Moscow time on March 23 near the South Ossetian Okona village. Two people were heavily injured in the terrorist act.

Source: http://www.regnum.ru/english/975273.html

The west ready to settle Transdnestr conflict without Russia

A second international conference on the Transdnestr conflict resolution in the context of Moldova's European integration is going to be held in Chisinau on March 26-27. The conference is to be attended by: ambassador of Great Britain to Moldova John Beyer; EU special representative for Moldova Kálmán Mizsei; head of EC delegation to Moldova Cezare de Montis; under secretary of Lithuania's foreign ministry Zygimantas Pavilionis; chairman of Moldova's parliament Marian Lupu; deputy head of OSCE mission to Moldova Claus Neukirch; Moldova's minister for reintegration Vasile Sova; head of OSCE mission to Moldova, ambassador Philip N. Remler, deputy secretary of National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Viktor Tkachuk, US ambassador to Moldova Michael D. Kirby, France's ambassador to Moldova Pierre Andrieu, and state secretary of Romania's foreign ministry Dana Raduta Matache. Report of Moldova's president Vladimir Voronin is expected to be the meeting's central event. Representatives of Moldovan and Russian foreign ministries are also to attend the conference. The following experts are expected to present reports: Ion Sturza, president of Foreign Policy Association (APE); Oazu Nantoi, director, Institute for Public Policy (IPP); Viorel Cibotaru, director at European Institute for Political Studies in Moldova; Sorin Mereacre, Eurasia Foundation's country director for Moldova; Andrei Popov, executive director at the Foreign Policy Association of Moldova (APE); Tamara Guzenkova, leading expert at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies; Vladimir Socor, senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation (Washington); Grigoriy Perepelitsa, director of Foreign Policy Research Institute of Ukraine; Igor Botan, executive director, Association for Participatory Democracy; Andrew Wilson, senior policy fellow at the European Council of Foreign Relations (London); Annelli Ute Gabanyi, political analyst, former researcher at the German Institute International Politics and Security; Iulian Chifu, director, Center for Conflict Prevention (Bucharest); Gottfried Hanne, ex- deputy head of OSCE mission to Moldova; Arcadie Barbarosie, executive director, Institute for Public Policy. Transdnestr at the conference is to be represented by Valeri Litskai, Transdnestr's political envoy for Transdnestr conflict settlement, and Ilya Galinsky, director at the Center for Strategic Studies Perspectiva.

Source: http://www.regnum.ru/english/975506.html

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Egypt to sign nuclear pact with Russia

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak heads for Russia on Monday where he is expected to get assurances of Russian assistance to build a nuclear facility. A bilateral nuclear power deal was outlined last week and is expected to be signed during the visit. Egypt's Foreign Minister Ahmad Abu Al-Gheit said the pact would enable Egypt to tap into Russia's extensive experience in the field of nuclear energy. The deal could allow Russia to participate in a tender to build nuclear reactors in Egypt. The pact coincides with international efforts to pressure Iran into abandoning its nuclear program. Iran insists its program is for civilian purposes of manufacturing energy, but Western countries are concerned Teheran is covertly making an atomic bomb. The technologies for creating nuclear energy and nuclear bombs are similar and involve many dual-usage elements and substances. Egypt is one of several Middle Eastern countries seeking a nuclear program. Cairo wants to revive its atomic energy program, which was aborted in the wake of the Chernobyl disaster in 1986, when the dangers of such a program became apparent. Other countries in the Middle East and North Africa region seeking nuclear programs include Jordan, Yemen, Morocco, Algeria, the Gulf countries and possibly Syria. All the nuclear newcomers in the region, including Iran, claim their programs have peaceful purposes. But there are concerns that these countries are not only seeking new energy sources, but also wish to maintain a strategic balance in the region against Iran and against Israel's alleged atomic weapons program. Israel maintains an official policy of ambiguity regarding its nuclear capabilities. Russia is seen as a global leader in nuclear know-how and is helping Iran build some of its nuclear power plants, including the plant in Bushehr. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates has decided to set up a nuclear agency to assess and develop its nuclear energy program. The UAE signed an agreement with France in January to help develop the program. Under the agreement, the UAE will not enrich uranium but will import the key substance from a "trusted foreign source," according to the Emirati news agency WAM.

Source: http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...cle%2FShowFull

Egypt-Russia trade grows 50% in 2007 to $2.1 bln

Egyptian-Russian trade grew 50% year on year in 2007 to $2.1 billion, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said on Sunday. The Egyptian president made this statement on the eve of his visit to Russia, which will take place on March 24-25. "Visits at the highest level gave a strong impetus to bilateral cooperation," Mubarak said in an interview with RIA Novosti. According to the Egyptian president, 1.5 million Russians visited Egypt last year, allowing Russia to take the first place in terms of the number of tourists visiting the North African country. "There are big opportunities for expanding cooperation in the sphere of trade, investment, energy and tourism between our countries," Mubarak said. During his visit to Russia, the Egyptian president is expected to sign a framework agreement on bilateral cooperation in the civilian nuclear energy sector. A source in Egypt's electricity and energy ministry earlier said the document will lay the foundation for nuclear energy cooperation between Egypt and Russia and will strengthen relations between Russian companies and Egypt. Nabil Rashwan, an expert on Russia, earlier said that the agreement would allow Russia to build nuclear power plants in Egypt, train Egyptian personnel and supply nuclear fuel, adding that cooperation with Russia was more advantageous than with the U.S. that imposed tough restrictions, including regular inspections and control. According to Rashwan, the U.S. is pressurizing Egypt to place its nuclear program under U.S. control to protect the security of Israel.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/world/20080323/102017445.html

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Iran Willing to Become Full Member of SCO

Iran has applied to the Secretariat of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to become its full member, RIA Novosti reported. Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki declared his country’s intention to change the observer’s status at SCO to the status of permanent member after he met with President of Tadjikistan Emomali Rakhmonov in Dushanbe. Tadjikistan backs up this intention of Iran, the official specified. Tadjikistan has been the SCO member since the time of its establishment and presides in this organization in 2008. Mottaki said his country proceeds with cooperating with IAEA but develops its own nuclear program at the same time. Manouchehr Mottaki and Afghanistan’s Foreign Minister Rangin Dadfar Spanta are in Dushanbe now, deliberating with Tadjikistan’s authorities on issues of three-party cooperation, including setting up a common TV Channel that will broadcast in the Persian language and building a railway road from Tadjikistan to Iran via Afghanistan. The visits of Afghanistan’s and Iran’s foreign ministers to Tadjikistan set the stage for the meeting of presidents of those countries.

Source: http://www.kommersant.com/p-12231/Iran_SCO/