The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

[Armanen]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

And with this news, it looks like the Kremlin has drawn an official line in the sand.

Let's hope it's not just talk, Moscow can't afford to keep looking like a fool everytime it makes statements such as the above and then doesn't act upon them.

[skhara]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Let's hope it's not just talk, Moscow can't afford to keep looking like a fool everytime it makes statements such as the above and then doesn't act upon them.

They have troops stationed in Abkhazia and S Ossetia. I think its understood that Georgians will be shot at by the Russians if they try to invade. Hell we already saw that with the shooting of the drone.

[Armanen]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

They have troops stationed in Abkhazia and S Ossetia. I think its understood that Georgians will be shot at by the Russians if they try to invade. Hell we already saw that with the shooting of the drone.

I realize that, but the Russians were also making strong hints that they will recognize Abkhazia and S. Ossetia if kosovo was recognized, they did not. I think their cards are better in this case, also the position they have been pressed into, nonetheless we don't ever know what is really going on behind the scenes, or what the puppet masters have in mind.

[skhara]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

I realize that, but the Russians were also making strong hints that they will recognize Abkhazia and S. Ossetia if kosovo was recognized, they did not. I think their cards are better in this case, also the position they have been pressed into, nonetheless we don't ever know what is really going on behind the scenes, or what the puppet masters have in mind.

Actually, they said they would not recognize. Certainly not immediately. All they said was that Kosovo sets a precedent and they have the option to recognize in the future. It's a strong bargaining chip. Why would they recognize and give away the bargaining chip?

Their non-recognition has nothing to do with any western disapprovement, but their own strategic interests.

[Armanen]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russia had made hints that they have the option to recognize Abkhazia and/or S. Ossetia even before the kosovo issue took the limelight again last year, especially since Ossetia has been wanting to reunite with N. Ossetia, but you're right they (Russians) use the conflicts in the Caucasus to their advantage, for them them status quo is good.

However, it will still be a few years before Russia is fully independent of the west, what western governments think still matters to them, even if it's very little.

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

This Saakashvili character continues to amuse me. He's got video "evidence" that will ruin Russia and free Georgia

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Russia 'shot down Georgia drone'

Georgia releases footage of 'Russian jet attack' - 21 Apr 08: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkeCvQ47bDY

A Russian fighter jet has shot down an unmanned reconnaissance aircraft over Georgia, Georgian authorities say. Georgia's defence ministry told the BBC it had video footage showing a Russian MiG-29 aircraft shooting down the unarmed Georgian drone on Sunday. A spokesman for Russia's air force told Reuters the claim was "nonsens". Tensions are high between the two neighbours over Russian support for breakaway Georgian regions, and Georgian moves towards joining Nato. The Georgian air force told Reuters news agency the video footage showed a Russian jet launching a missile at the Georgian plane as it flew over the breakaway Abkhazia region. "It's absolutely illegal for a Russian MiG-29 to be there," Col David Nairashvili, the air force commander, told Reuters. Last week, Georgia accused Russia of trying to annex the breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by deciding to seek closer ties with them. Russia has said the plan is aimed at protecting the rights and legal interests of Russian citizens, who make up the majority of the population in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russian and UN peacekeepers have been deployed in the two republics since the early 1990s, when violence broke out as both regions tried to break free from Georgian control. Earlier this month, Nato decided not to grant Georgia's request to join its Membership Action Plan but promised it would eventually become a member of the alliance.

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7358761.stm

Putin blames Georgia for raising tensions in Abkhazia

President Putin has reacted with surprise to Georgian military flights over Abkhazia. He said they serve simply to heighten tensions within a conflict zone. It comes after Georgia accused Russia of shooting down its unmanned plane over Abkhazian territory. Georgia says it’s an act of direct aggression. The Russian leader’s reaction came in his telephone conversation with Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili on Monday. According to Georgia, one of its unmanned planes was on a regular reconnaissance flight when it was attacked by a Russian fighter jet. Georgia had previously denied all involvement, claiming they hadn’t sent a plane to the area. Abkhazia says Georgia’s statement acknowledging the flight is tantamount to an admission of spying. Russia's Ambassador to Georgia, Vyacheslav Kovalenko, says Georgian spy planes have been continually spotted in Abkhazian airspace throughout the last few weeks. “From the beginning of April, Georgian unmanned spy planes have been constantly present in the security zone in violation of all existing agreements. I’ve received this information from Russian peacekeepers and UN observers," he said. Moscow, meanwhile, denies Georgia’s accusation that Russia is to blame for shooting down the plane and stresses that none of its planes were in the region at the time. Colonel Aleksandr Drobyshevsky, Aide to the Airforce Commander-in-Chief, said all Russian Air Force pilots were off duty on Sunday and there were no Russian military planes flying over the North Caucusus. Tbilisi, however, insists there is sound evidence that a Russian jet was involved in the incident. It's not the first time Tbilisi has accused Russia of violating its airspace, with Moscow dismissing the accusations as fabrications. Meanwhile, Abkhazia claims it was one of its own aircraft that destroyed the plane.

Source: http://www.russiatoday.ru/news/news/23724

Georgia-Russia Tension Escalates Over Downed Drone

Georgia behind Abkhazia tensions: Putin: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KftF9yL_gbQ

Georgia Accuses Russia of Shootdown: http://video.on.nytimes.com/?fr_stor...d54d7ae58fef11

Georgia accused Russia on Monday of violating its airspace and using a MIG fighter jet to shoot down a Georgian reconnaissance drone over the separatist territory of Abkhazia on Sunday. Russia’s Air Force denied the Georgian claim, saying that none of its military planes flew in or near southwestern Russia on Sunday and that its pilots were not working that day. But Georgia released what is said was the video recording of the final live feed received from the unarmed reconnaissance aircraft before it was struck by an air-to-air missile and crashed at 9:55 a.m. Sunday. Buoyed with what it called clear evidence, Georgia countered with a diplomatic and public relations offensive. President Mikheil Saakashvili appeared on national television and said he had spoken with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and demanded an end to what he called “unprovoked aggression against the sovereign territory of Georgia.”

In a telephone interview Monday night, Mr. Saakashvili said he had spoken with Mr. Putin for about 40 minutes. He said that Mr. Putin had neither confirmed nor denied the attack, and that the two presidents had disagreed sharply about the status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two separatist enclaves in Georgia that receive intensive political and diplomatic Russian support. Last week, Mr. Putin issued a decree expanding relations between Russia and the enclaves, including direct contacts with Russia’s ministries and pledges of economic and agricultural aid. Georgia called the decree a formal step in “a creeping annexation.” The video released Monday seemed certain to intensify the dispute. It shows the clear silhouette of a twin-tailed fighter aircraft, which the Georgians claimed was a MIG-29 fighter jet, as it banks into view beneath the remotely piloted drone and fires a missile toward the camera.

The missile streaks swiftly toward the lens, leaving a long smoke trail as it advances and grows in size. The footage stops. Black-and-white static fills the screen. Neither the Georgian Air Force nor the tiny contingent of Abkhaz planes in the separatist territory have MIG-29s. The only air force with MIG-29s that could have been in the area, Georgian officials said, is Russia’s. Mr. Saakashvili said the evidence was irrefutable. “It’s on the video,” he said. “It’s a Russian plane.” The dispute marked the latest claim by Georgia that Russia had made illegal military incursions into Georgian airspace. Last year, Georgia accused Russia of two mysterious attacks — a coordinated helicopter and ground-to-ground rocket attack in the Kodori Gorge in March, and an attack from a Russian jet with an air-to-ground missile in August. Mr. Saakashvili also said that Russia had secretly expanded military aid to Abkhazia, staging aircraft inside its borders and assigning trainers to Abkhaz ground units. He said that last year a special Georgian unit killed two Russian colonels who had accompanied an Abkhaz reconnaissance patrol deep into Georgian territory.

Each event, Georgia has said, is further evidence that Russia has sided militarily with separatists it already supports politically in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which achieved de facto independence after brief wars against Georgia in the 1990s. The attacks, Georgia has said, show that Russia is not neutral and should be grounds to nullify Russia’s role as a peacekeeper in the region, which it has had since a cease-fire in 1993. Russia has repeatedly denied the Georgian claims, even when confronted with pieces of the broken rockets and missiles with Russian-language markings. After the episode last August, Russia accused Georgia of staging a fake attack, or of attacking itself. Georgia countered that it had digital radar evidence of a plane entering from Russia, flying to the area of the attack and then returning to Russia. Georgia initially denied Abkhaz reports on Sunday that it had lost a drone. But on Monday it changed its account, saying it had dispatched an unarmed drone to observe Abkhaz troop buildups in Gali, a district on the Black Sea near the internal administrative border between Georgian and Abkhaz forces.

Mr. Saakashvili said Georgia had about 40 reconnaissance drones, which it purchased from Israel and distributed among its police and military commands. “It is a very handy thing in a mountainous country,” he said. The lost drone, he said, belonged to the Interior Ministry. The Russian Air Force command did not dispute that a Georgian drone had been downed by an air-to-air missile. But it said an Abkhaz L-39 training plane had flown the mission, not a Russian MIG-29. The fighter plane seen in the Georgian video did not resemble an L-39, which has a distinctive silhouette, including a single tail. The video could not be immediately verified independently. No markings were visible on the attacking plane. Georgian officials said they were fortunate to capture the fighter plane on camera, and had done so only because a first missile fired by the plane missed the drone, which has a small engine that they said made it a difficult target for a heat-seeking missile. The pilot apparently decided to approach closer for a second shot, they said, and flew near enough for the plane to be filmed by the drone before it was destroyed.

Shota Utiashvili, a senior official in Georgia’s Interior Ministry, said radar data also showed that the Russian plane had flown from Gudauta, a former Soviet air base inside Abkhazia, which is within Georgia’s internationally recognized borders. Basing Russian attack aircraft in Abkhazia would be illegal and a violation of the terms of peacekeeping in the region, he said. Georgian officials said the video had been shared with foreign embassies in Tbilisi, the Georgian capital; the embassies made no public comment. Mr. Saakashvili said Georgia would bring the attack up with the United Nations. The attack, he said, was hardly the first, “but this time we have video evidence.” The episode occurred only days after several Western countries, including the United States, criticized Russia’s announcement that it would expand its support for the breakaway regions. “We are very concerned at the steps that have been taken and we have made our views known to the Russian government,” Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said last week.

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/22/wo...tml?ref=europe

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Over 110 aircraft to take part in CIS command-and-staff drill

More than 110 military aircraft from eight CIS states will take part in a large-scale command-and-staff exercise on April 22 led by the Joint Air Defense Force, a senior Russian military official said Monday. "Over 20 scenarios will be rehearsed, designed at strengthening the air space of CIS countries - Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan," said Lt.Gen. Vadim Volkovitsky, deputy commander of the Russian Air Force. He said command of the drill will be provided by Col. Gen. Alexander Zelin, Russian Air Force chief, from the Central Command and Control Post. More than 10 missile, air defense, anti-aircraft, and electronic warfare units will rehearse missions to protect the air space around Moscow and the Central Federal District. MiG-29 Fulcrum and Su-27 Flanker fighters will practice interception missions.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080421/105544646.html

Russia Air Force to get new Tu-160 strategic bomber in April

A new Tu-160 Blackjack strategic bomber will enter service with Russia' Air Force by the end of this month, the Air Force chief said on Tuesday. "We hope that the 121st heavy bomber regiment [based at Engels airbase in the Saratov Region] will receive a new Tu-160 plane on April 29," Col.Gen. Alexander Zelin said. "It is a fully upgraded plane, adapted to new weapons systems," he said. He added that another three to four such bombers will enter service before the end of the year. The Tu-160 Blackjack is a supersonic, variable-geometry heavy bomber, designed to strike strategic targets with nuclear and conventional weapons deep in continental theatres of operation. The aircraft has all-weather, day-and-night capability and can operate at all geographical latitudes. Its two internal rotary launchers can each hold 6 Raduga Kh-55 cruise missiles or 12 Raduga Kh-15 short-range nuclear missiles. The plane bears a strong resemblance to the U.S. B-1A Lancer strategic bomber, although it is significantly larger, and with far greater range, up to 11,000 miles without refueling. According to official reports, there are at least 15 Tu-160 bombers in service with the Russian Air Force. Russia plans to upgrade the existing fleet and build at least one new bomber every one-two years to increase the number of available aircraft to 30 in the near future. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the resumption of strategic patrol flights last August, saying that although the country had halted long-distance strategic flights to remote regions in 1992, other nations had continued the practice, and that this compromised Russian national security. Although it was common practice during the Cold War for both the U.S. and the Soviet Union to keep nuclear strategic bombers permanently airborne, the Kremlin cut long-range patrols in 1992. The decision came as a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the ensuing economic and political chaos. However, the newly-resurgent Russia, awash with petrodollars, has invested heavily in military technology, and the resumption of long-range patrols is widely seen among political commentators as another sign of its drive to assert itself both militarily and politically.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080422/105640820.html

Russian Navy conducts tactical missile drill in Barents Sea

The nuclear powered missile cruiser Pyotr Velikiy of Russia's Northern Fleet has completed a missile firing exercise in the Barents Sea, a Navy spokesman said on Wednesday. "The live fire exercise was carried out as part of a tactical drill at a test site in the Barents Sea," Capt. 1st Rank Igor Dygalo said. He said, in particular, the battle-cruiser had successfully engaged a mock target launched from the missile ship Rassvet. The cruiser also repulsed a mock air attack with an onboard antiaircraft complex. Dygalo said Pyotr Velikiy's operations in the Barents Sea were ensured by Northern Fleet warships and support vessels.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080423/105754660.html

Su-34: new aircraft for Air Force's new concept

Sukhoi SU-32 (SU-34) Fullback fighter-bomber: http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...Ar72vY8B&hl=en

Russia's rearmament program, approved in 2006 for a period until 2015, provides for supplying modern weapons to its armed forces. One of them is the Su-34 Fullback fighter-bomber, which will replace the Su-24 Fencers. The process has begun, but some say the replacement is taking too long. The new fighter-bomber is said to be very good. An improvement on the Su-27 Flanker, it has cutting-edge equipment, including a modern crew and equipment protection system. The Su-34 is effective against personnel and military hardware on the battlefield and also against targets behind enemy lines, and can also be used for surveillance and against naval targets. The Su-34 will replace the Su-24M aircraft (about 400 planes), the Su-24MR surveillance aircraft (over 100 planes), and the MiG-25RB aircraft (about 70). Russia will have to produce between 550 and 600 Su-34s to replace these obsolete aircraft within 10-15 years.

However, the Defense Ministry plans to buy only about 58 such planes by 2015 and a total of 300 by 2022. Many experts say that if the Su-24 and MiG-25RB aircraft are scrapped by 2020, Russia will be left without fighter-bombers and surveillance aircraft. Others argue that this number will be enough for the Air Force's new concept. The concept is focused not so much on the combat characteristics of the Su-34, as on its long range, the ability to refuel in the air (including by other Su-34 aircraft with additional fuel tanks under their wings), and its comfortable cabin allowing the crew to make long-distance flights without becoming overtired. The Su-34 aircraft can also fly without electronic warfare support planes, because it has electronic interference equipment.

Units armed with such aircraft can be used in the so-called pendulum operations, when an Air Force unit bombs a terrorist base in Central Asia today, delivers a strike at a missile base in Europe the next day, and three days later flies to the Indian Ocean to support a combined group of the Northern, Pacific and Black Sea fleets, with the flights made from a base in Russia. The Su-34 aircraft has long-range precision weapons, can fly hugging the earth, and have a high level of protection, which should cut losses during lightning operations, while the use of a relatively small number of such aircraft allows training crews to perfection. This is not a new concept. Elite units of top-class aircraft manned by superbly trained crews formed the core of the German air force during World War II, and Japan's Imperial Navy had a similar concept.

However, such elite units can be quickly weeded out by swarms of ordinary aircraft in a global war of attrition, such as World War II. From this viewpoint, Russia's new concept looks vulnerable, but then this country has the nuclear triad for a global war. In a war of attrition, it will not matter how many such smart aircraft Russia will have - 200, 600 or 1,500. What will matter is the yield of a nuclear bomb they will be able to drop on the enemy. But in the event of a small war involving one or two adversaries, or a chain of local conflicts, the existence of such high-speed, highly protected and well-armed aircraft can be the decisive factor. Even 58 Su-34 fighter-bombers, used at the right time in the right place, would be a powerful force. A group of 200-300 such aircraft, divided into several units for use in key areas of the battlefield, will be able to fulfill the most complicated tasks.

Apart from the Su-34, the Russian Air Force will also receive other new planes, whose technical characteristics will maintain the force's combat potential at the requisite level. New units, set up for the fulfillment of specific tasks, will consist of fighters, bombers, early warning and command planes, flying tankers, and unmanned aerial vehicles. These will be highly mobile units, which means that its aircraft can be quickly dispatched to the area in question. In fact, Russia's new concept is not unlike the United States' Aerospace Expeditionary Force (AEF), a flexible and powerful instrument of air warfare capable of quickly delivering strikes in any part of the world. As for surveillance aircraft, industrialized countries intend to replace them with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The world is changing, and the new world will wage new kind of wars.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080417/105299816.html

Russian bombers patrol over Atlantic Ocean

Two Russian Tu-95 Bear strategic bombers and two Il-78 aerial tankers are carrying out routine patrols over neutral Atlantic waters, a Russian Air Force spokesman said on Wednesday. Interceptions of Russian combat aircraft by NATO fighters are becoming a common occurrence again, after Russia resumed strategic bomber patrol flights over the Pacific, Atlantic, and Arctic oceans last August, following an order signed by President Vladimir Putin "During the flights the crews develop their flying skills in northern latitudes, over unmarked terrain," Colonel Alexander Drobyshevsky said. He said the crews also perfect their in-flight refueling techniques, allowing the bombers to remain in the air for more than 24 hours and is considered extremely difficult "especially when the Russian planes are accompanied by NATO interceptors." "All Russian Air Force flights are performed...in strict accordance with international rules on the use of airspace over neutral waters without violating the borders of other states," he also said. Although it was common practice during the Cold War for both the U.S. and the Soviet Union to keep nuclear strategic bombers permanently airborne, the Kremlin cut long-range patrols in 1992. The decision came as a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the ensuing economic and political chaos. However, the newly-resurgent Russia, awash with petrodollars, has invested heavily in military technology, and the resumption of long-range patrols is widely seen among political commentators as another sign of its drive to assert itself both militarily and politically.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080423/105729737.html

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russo-Armenian relations according to a US based Think Tank.

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Armenia: Russia's Strengthening Hand

Summary

Armenia’s Feb. 19 presidential election pitted two pro-Russian candidates against each other. Armenia is crucial to Russian strategy in the Caucasus, and Russian political and economic influence there has been on the rise.

Analysis

The presidential election held Feb. 19 in Armenia is over, and Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisyan has emerged as the clear victor. His main opponent was former President Levon Ter-Petrosyan. Both candidates are pro-Russian, and each recently paid political “tribute” to Moscow: Ter-Petrosyan met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Feb. 11, and Sarkisyan hosted Russian Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov in Yerevan on Feb. 6. Of the two candidates, Moscow prefers Sarkisyan. As a war hero and a native of the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region, he is not looking to give an inch of ground in Armenia’s dispute with Azerbaijan over the territory. Russia wants to keep its options open regarding Nagorno-Karabakh, especially now that it is deciding how to respond to Kosovo’s independence declaration — and, therefore, Ter-Petrosyan, who has a history of attempting to resolve the conflict, is not the best man for the job, in Moscow’s opinion. Armenia is a crucial piece of Moscow’s geopolitical puzzle in the region: It is a Russian “advance post” in the South Caucasus and the central cog of Iranian-Russian cooperation. Indeed, Russia’s influence is on the rise in Armenia, with both political and economic trends pointing to an ever-tighter alignment between the two.

No matter who won Armenia’s election, it would not have changed Yerevan’s geopolitical imperatives. Armenia is flanked by a hostile Azerbaijan and an equally hostile Turkey, and thus has to develop close relations with its powerful neighbors Iran and Russia. Considering the recent and ongoing Azeri military buildup, neither presidential candidate had any intention of abandoning the alliance with Russia. Armenia has rejected NATO membership as a goal and has strained relations with the United States over its own close economic relationship with Iran. (However, the strong Armenian lobby in Washington has thus far prevented any substantial cuts in U.S. military and economic aid, something the Bush administration has pushing for since March 2007.) In addition to political affinities, the strong geopolitical pull between Moscow and Yerevan has produced a considerable increase in Russian economic influence in Armenia, through both infrastructural investments and business ventures:

* Russia now controls ArmRosGazprom, operator of a pipeline that transports Iranian natural gas to Armenia to operate Armenian power plants — which produce electricity on which Iran depends.
* Gazprom oil subsidiary Gazpromneft is planning to construct an oil refinery near the municipality of Megri, in southern Armenia, that also will supply Iran with much-needed gasoline and oil derivatives.
* Russian state-owned nuclear energy company Rosatom has proposed its services for the construction of a new nuclear power station in Armenia to replace or supplement the aging Metzamor plant.
* Russia and Armenia signed a deal Feb. 6 to create a joint uranium exploration venture.
* Through Rusal, one of the world’s largest aluminum producers, Russia also controls Armenal, an aluminum foil mill in Yerevan that accounts for 40 percent of total Armenian annual exports.
* Russian state railway monopoly Russian Railways has a 30-year contract to run Armenia’s national railway network — which, crucially, extends into Iran.
* Russian mobile telephony operators Vimpelcom and Mobile TeleSystems essentially own Armenia’s entire cellular network.

It should be noted that many of the larger investments (such as the proposed nuclear power plant) could run into funding problems; Armenia is practically broke, and Russia has a poor track record of financing infrastructure projects. Furthermore, Moscow has in the past rarely invested money directly in Armenia, choosing instead to use Armenia’s debt to Russia as a way to foreclose on Armenian national assets. That is still the case, but now there also is an increase in Russian businesses and state-owned enterprises investing directly in the country. Russia sinking actual money into Armenia is notable and signifies that Yerevan is being further locked into Moscow’s sphere of influence.

Source: http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/arm...ngthening_hand

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Russia, the West and Nagorno-Karabakh

Summary

Azerbaijan accused Armenia of stoking unrest in the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh after a gunbattle that killed 15 people March 5. Azerbaijan is using its petroleum wealth to arm itself for a potential conflict with Armenia over the separatist region, which on paper belongs to Azerbaijan but in reality is controlled by Armenia. The West does not want to see this conflict re-emerge, but Russia does — to a point.

Analysis

Following a gunbattle in the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan said 15 soldiers were killed and it accused its neighbor Armenia on March 5 of deliberately stoking unrest in the breakaway region. If true, 15 dead would mark the worst clash in recent years between Muslim Azerbaijan and Orthodox Christian Armenia, which technically remain at war. Renewed conflict in the disputed enclave would displease the West, but would suit Russia just fine unless Azerbaijan scores a decisive win — something becoming increasingly likely, however, as Azerbaijan converts its petroleum wealth into armaments. Pro-Armenian forces seized the ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in a war in the 1990s. The two sides have remained in a tense deadlock over the territory ever since, but the conflict has been relatively dormant since a 1994 cease-fire. Technically, Nagorno-Karabakh is still part of Azerbaijan, even though Armenia controls it. International pressure, lack of support from every nation but Russia and Iran, and fear of Azeri retaliation have kept Armenia from annexing the territory. Azerbaijan has been held back from retaking the land due to pressure from the West and the Azeri military’s relative weakness.

But the situation slowly has been changing as Azerbaijan has grown stronger and richer following the 2006 completion of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, which Western companies developed to feed oil to Europe. The BTC led to a more pro-Western Azerbaijan, and the tremendous new wealth it generated has helped the country increase its defense spending from $175 million in 2004 to more than $1 billion at the start of 2008. This, of course, has Armenia more than nervous, but the much poorer country can barely increase its spending to follow Azerbaijan’s lead. In the past year, Armenia has increased its defense spending by 20 percent, from $125 million to $150 million — almost all of which was spent on boosting its defensive capabilities. The Azeris constantly speak about wanting to take Nagorno-Karabakh back by force, and now actually are closing in on the ability to do so. And there is another force pushing for a conflict: Russia.

Following the 2004 eviction from its military bases in nearby Georgia after the Rose Revolution, Russia has been slowly withdrawing its vast military equipment from Azerbaijan’s and Armenia’s fellow country in the Caucasus. Officially, Russia said the last of its equipment was removed from Georgia in the summer of 2007 and much of the hardware was shipped back to Russia. But quite a bit of it was relocated to Russia’s large base in Gyumri, Armenia. Uncertainty remains about the relocation of 40 armored vehicles and 20 tanks; Russia says they are back home, but Azerbaijan suspects they are in Armenia. Armenia has accused Moscow of helping fuel Azerbaijan’s military buildup. It alleges that quite a bit of the military equipment from Georgia found its way to Azerbaijan. Russia has myriad reasons to fuel another conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. First, the Kremlin is still smarting after the West recognized Kosovar independence from Serbia despite Russia’s and Serbia’s vigorous objections. In the run-up to Kosovar secession, Russia insisted that the breakaway province’s independence would cause flare-ups in other separatist regions. A renewed scuffle over Nagorno-Karabakh would represent a major told-you-so for Moscow.

Second, Russia is very interested in destabilizing Azerbaijan and in having the West become displeased with Azerbaijan. The United States and Europe have warned Azerbaijan not to restart conflict with Armenia — especially the United States, which has a very large Armenian diaspora with a great deal of clout in Washington. During an election year, U.S. politicians cannot afford to offend constituencies, so they are liable not to ignore pressure from Armenian-Americans. The West worries that renewed conflict could destabilize their investments in Azeri energy infrastructure. Third and last, Russia would just relish the opportunity that renewed conflict would create for it to sweep in as the great mediator. Moscow repeatedly has said it wants to send troops, perhaps as part of a peacekeeping force, into Nagorno-Karabakh. More fighting would give it the perfect opportunity to do so. Ultimately, having the southern Caucasus in flames greatly increases Russia’s leverage with every player previously mentioned. However, Moscow does have one concern: what if Azerbaijan actually wins the fight against Armenia? A victory by Baku would be a palpable blow against Russian power, allowing Azerbaijan to continue on its Westward push without fear of Moscow.

Source: http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/arm...ngthening_hand

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russian-published “Encyclopedia for Children” shows Azerbaijani, Turkish, Iranian and Georgian territories as Armenian

Armenian map in the middle centuries in South Caucasus was reflected in the “Encyclopedia for Children” published in Russian “Avanta+” publishing house, APA reports. Azerbaijani, Turkish, Georgian and Iranian lands were shown as territories of Armenia in Geography volume of Encyclopedia published in 2007 (editorial staff: M. Aksyonova, A. Eliovic etc.) Moreover, there are many distortion and mistakes in the article. Jabi Bahramov, Deputy Director of Institute of History in ANAS told APA that there was not any Armenian territory in middle centuries.

“Local people of South Caucasus remained beyond and article on Geography in Armenia in middle century was included in Geographical part. There were Byzantine, Arabian invasion, Mongolian and Saljug periods in middle centuries, but there was not any Armenian state in the history till 1918. There was not shown Armenian country in South Caucasus in any historical sources. XV-XVIII centuries are the period of Safavi Empire of Azerbaijan. We come across the name of Armenia in the territory of Turkey’s Van Lake. Armenians were brought to South Caucasus during the period of tsar Russia systematically in 1804-1813, 1826-1828”, he said.

The historian also stated that it was wrong to say science and literature were flourishing in Armenia, while in all counties science and culture were perishing. "Any nation, ethnic group should have its state, economic, stable socio-political situation so that its culture can flourish. How can science and enlightenment improve in the unknown area called Armenia, which lacks all this? According to the article, father of Armenian history Movses Khorenatsi said that beginning from the fifth century these territories belonged to Armenian state. French philosopher Auguste Cahier in his book “Extracts from ancient history” written in 1805 called “father of Armenian history” the greatest swindler among historians. It is not even known when he lived. Some sources say he lived in the 6th and others say he lived in the 7-8th centuries,” he said.

The names of Anania Shirakatsi, Claudius Ptolomeus are mentioned in the article. The source of the map is not shown. Azerbaijani scientist said there was no state called Armenia in Ptolomeus’ map. “It is uncertain in what language the map is. This is Latin script, but language is not clear. Russia is shown as the neighbor of Armenia in the map. The word “Russia” appeared in the 18th century. This name was given to Rus state in the reign of Peter I. How can the name of Russia fall under medieval Armenian map, while before it had been called Kievan Rus, Moscow? How could the word “Russia” be written in Armenian map, while Russian state is not written in the historical literature of Russia by the 18th century? It is also written Persian Empire in the map. This expression has been known as “Parsia” since the 9th century B.C. and means far. This phrase has been used in Western and Russian history since the Middle Ages (16th century). Persians had not been in power after the occupation of Arabians until 1924. Only in 1924 Persians mounted a coup and seized the power,” he said.

The next false information in the article is about the great geographical discoveries in the Atlantic and Indian oceans. It turns out that Armenians had a great dockyard, ships and they discovered that period. Bahramov said that publication of such books in Russia was not accidental and Armenians used all opportunities of Russia in anti-propaganda towards Azerbaijan. “282 such false books published in the US and Europe were found when Armenians raised genocide claims against Turkey in 1919. Armenians have already published over 4 million books to falsify Azerbaijan’s history and translated into many languages. The only way to fight against them is to publish books of Azerbaijani scientists and release in different countries through embassies and Diaspora,” he said.

Source: http://en.apa.az/news.php?id=47747

[Armanen]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Do you guys think that if Iran is attacked by israel/america that this will be a war Russia will indirectly get involved in? Or any other powers?