The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

It has slowly begun? http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/29961

Not necessarily, Federate. Like I suggested previously, Azerbaijan is essentially a hostage to Moscow and Baku knows it. For the most part, Baku has no other choice but to dance to Moscow's tune, especially now that a major geopolitical shift has taken place. None of this, in my opinion, will have a negative impact on the status of Nagorno Karabagh. Moscow has clearly stated on many occasions, even in its comments yesterday, that it will 'not' tolerate the resumption of hostilities in Nagorno Karabagh and that it expects Armenians and Azeris to settle the matter in question at the peace table. And the timetable for this is indefinite. It's clear that Moscow is adamantly protecting the status quo in the disputed region. Again I need to reiterate that this status quo benefits Armenians and not the Azeris. So, with Baku willingly dancing to Moscow's tune now, what sense would it make for Russia to undermine Armenia? Nagorno Karabagh is the sledgehammer Moscow has hanging over Baku's head and it will remain so for the foreseeable future.

There is another crucial factor behind Ankara's recent good will gesture towards Armenia that I forgot to mention. Aside from its lucrative multi-billion dollar trade with Russia, Ankara also heavily relies on Central Asian derived energy resources. So, with the transit routes through Georgia now interrupted, Ankara is essentially forced to put on a happy face and approach Yerevan and Tehran. In my opinion, Moscow could have been behind Ankara's decision to approach Yerevan.

These are interesting times.

Right now, Moscow is in damage control mode, Ankara is in a confused mode, Yerevan is in a survival mode (as usual), Azerbaijan is in a panic mode, Tehran is in a hopeful mode, and Washington is in a desperate mode. Saakashvili has really created a massive geopolitical mess in the region. God only knows where all this is heading.

Giving up territories outside the former NKAO would prove the end of NKR. Let's hope nothing ridiculous like that ever happens.

Try not to look at these types of issues in simple black and white terms. If Armenia gives up the territories in question without Baku 'fully' accepting the independence of Nagorno Karabagh, than yes it can be a potential problem. If Baku truly come to terms with loosing Nagorno Karabagh and truly works towards ending its dispute with Armenia then the territories in question can be handed over. Thus the issue here is not action, its "intention." Yerevan and Stepanakert have to be convinced of Baku's good intentions and they would need international guarantees they can fully trust. Thus far, Baku has not signaled that it is ready to accept its lose and Yerevan has not yet received any guarantees that it can trust. It's all relative. However, regardless of Baku's intentions and international guarantees, the territories west of Nagorno Karabagh (Karvajar and Bertdzor region) can 'not' be negotiated under any circumstances.

Today we saw Armenia playing a prominent role on the international stage. I have been very impressed with Serge Sargsyan's performance in these trying times:

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Joint declaration on South Ossetia signed in Moscow

The leaders of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) have signed a joint declaration on recent developments in the Caucasus at a meeting in Moscow on Friday. The group also expressed its support of Russia's reaction to Georgian aggression against South Ossetia. The issue has also been at the forefront of EU foreign ministers’ talks in France. Countries in the Collective Security Treaty Organisation will make their own minds up on the issue of recognising South Ossetia. This was the conclusion of Russia's President Medvedev, following a summit of the organisation. ”All our partners in the CSTO will be guided by their own opinion on the issue of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This is how it should be according to the norms of international law. They'll be guided by their own national interests. Russia believes this is absolutely right,” Dmitry Medvedev said.

But the Armenian President stressed that the members of the organisation should show a united front in different issues, including foreign policy. ”Along with strengthening the military aspects of CSTO, we must also coordinate our foreign policy, because we are members of one organisation,” said Armenian President, Serzh Sargsyan. The Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) which includes Russia and six of its neighbouring countries - Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan - backed Russia's actions in South Ossetia and condemned Georgia's aggression in a joint statement issued on Thursday. “The statement highlights the key points and has all the necessary verifications, including condemnation of Georgia's military actions against South Ossetia. It condemns the policy of double standards and admits the situation in the conflict zone is dangerous,” said Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov. Russia is clearly satisfied with the support, but there is still a lot of work to be done and diplomatic talks continue on Friday at the highest level. To watch the full press-conference of the leaders of the Collective Security Treaty Organization in Moscow, please follow link.

Meanwhile, a two-day informal meeting of EU foreign ministers which starts in Avignon, France, on Friday will focus on the situation in the Caucasus. The summit in Avignon will examine the questions of rendering humanitarian aid to Georgia and assistance in restoring its economy. The EU FMs will also consider the effect of events in South Ossetia on relations between Russia and the EU. The special EU summit on September 1 took a moderate stance concerning Russia. Although denouncing the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the EU leaders refrained from taking any sanctions against Russia. At the same time, there is a group of countries inside the EU, which continue pushing through a tough anti-Russian line. The core of the bloc includes the Baltic states, Poland and the UK. The second day of the informal EU foreign ministers’ summit is expected to be devoted to the European Union’s relations with the U.S. and their future prospects. The French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner will also deliver a report on his trip to the Middle East.

Source: http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/29953

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And here Baku makes the case against Armenia:

Opening Borders between Turkey and Armenia: Does Game of Light Stand for Ankara?

Under the conditions of the close economic partnership of Turkey and Azerbaijan, official Ankara will lose greater than it will acquire from re-establishment of railway communication and actually opening the land border with Yerevan, which has been closed for already 15 years. The media actively comments on the news on the forthcoming visit of the President of Turkey, Abdullah Gul, to Armenia and the parallel statements of official Yerevan regarding the plans of renewal of the railway Kars (Turkey) - Gumri (Armenia). Turkey, being the importer of fuel from many sources, obtains transit tariff from the transportation of Azerbaijani oil via Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, buys gas via Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline, builds railway Baku-Tbilisi-Kars together with Azerbaijan. The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan invests in the creation of large petrochemical complex in Turkey. Ankara lays large hopes also for Kazakhstan oil, which will pass by transit through the territory of Azerbaijan, and gas pipe Nabucco, of which beginning will be established in Turkey, will be filled up with the Azerbaijan gas and fuel from central Asia, which will pass through Baku.

Because of its aggressive policy with regards to Nagorno-Karabakh, which is integral part of Azerbaijan, Armenia was found in the total dependence on three countries: Iran, Russia and Georgia, which mainly acted as transit country for delivery of Russian goods to Yerevan. The present desire of Armenia to re-establish activity of the route Kars-Gumri is completely explainable: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict, which burnt in August, made Armenia more dependent on the import, but now already only on one source - Iran. The recent rupture of diplomatic relations between Georgia and Russia actually means that Russian goods can not arrive in Yerevan through Tbilisi, but there is no other economically attractive route. This means that according to elementary market laws, the Iranian goods will grow in price for Armenia, whose economic position even will more deteriorate in light of the last events in Caucasus. Due o the situation created in Caucasus, the question of diversifying the import of energy resources critically stands for Armenia, and the statements of official Yerevan regarding the plans of renewal of railway communication with the partner country for Azerbaijan – Turkey – proceed from this. Official Ankara hardly will go to such in the essence political step.

Opening roads - indicating relaxation of the 15-year position of official Ankara, will allow Turkey to trade only with Armenia because Turkish goods can not fall to the market of Russia through Georgia because of the recent conflict and break of diplomatic relations. Moreover, Turkey does not need to trade with Iran or Georgia through Armenia because Turkey has state borders with these countries and economic operations have been fixed long ago. According to the data provided by US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the fuel consumption in Armenia from 1992 to 2007 averaged 34,000 barrels per day (1.7mln tons per year). According to data by EIA, Armenia does not have own oil refinery, own production of hydrocarbons and main oil pipelines. Armenia repeatedly declared its desire to construct oil refinery in its territory, with a capacity of 7mln tons per year, which is estimated at $2bln. However, no one will buy gasoline from this refinery because it will prove to be very unattractive because of the high prime cost of oil refining. Imported Kazakhstan or Turkmen oil (by transit via the territory of Iran) for the refinery in Armenia will cost very expensive, and export and distribution of oil products are complicated by the absence of main oil product pipelines and, as a consequence of this, by high transport expenditures. Yerevan will not be able to buy Iranian oil because Teheran itself buys raw material from Russia, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan for its oil refineries, located on the north of the country,.

Azerbaijan has solid geo-political position in South Caucasus, possessing convenient and infrastructurally fixed transit territory for exporting both its hydrocarbons and from central Asia to Europe. Due to the present high prices for oil and gas, Turkey obtains significant benefits from the co-operation with Azerbaijan, whose raw material goes to the Port of Ceyhan. And Kazakhstan will supply part of its own oil from Kashagan Field via Baku- Tbilisi-Ceyhan. Kazakhstan possesses oil terminal in the Port of Batumi in the Black sea in Georgia, loads for which are supplied through the territory of Azerbaijan. Economic factor and solid fixed partner agreements with Azerbaijan, in all likelihood, must be more accepted by Turkey against the background of the possibility of opening borders with Armenia.

Source: http://capital.trendaz.com/index.sht...287259&lang=EN

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

There is another crucial factor behind Ankara's recent good will gesture towards Armenia that I forgot to mention. Aside from its lucrative multi-billion dollar trade with Russia, Ankara also heavily relies on Central Asian derived energy resources. So, with the transit routes through Georgia now interrupted, Ankara is essentially forced to put on a happy face and approach Yerevan and Tehran. In my opinion, Moscow could have been behind Ankara's decision to approach Yerevan.

Iran: Reaping Benefits From a BTC Shutdown

Summary

Azerbaijan has begun sending shipments of crude for transit via Iran, since the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline is shut down. Azerbaijan said the shipments to Iran will only continue while the BTC is down, but since Russia is calling the shots on the pipeline, Iran could become a regular transit option for Azeri oil. If this occurs, the entire region could experience a shift, and the U.S. position in negotiations with Iran could weaken.

Analysis

Iran received its first cargo of Azeri crude for transit Aug. 24, the Iranian Oil Ministry’s news agency, Shana, said on its Web site. The shipment falls under a longstanding oil swap deal Iran has with quite a few Caspian oil-producing nations, though Azerbaijan has never fulfilled the order. Azerbaijan says the shipments will only last as long as its Western route for oil through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline is shut down, but with the Russians calling the shots on the BTC, Iran could become a regular option for Azerbaijani crude — something that could shift the entire region. Azerbaijan’s ability to ship its large energy wealth to the West has been doubly hit in the past few weeks. First, transport through the BTC line, which carries 1 million barrels per day (bpd) from Azerbaijan’s capital to the Turkish Mediterranean and on to Europe, was halted when a fire erupted Aug. 5 — possibly the result of a Kurdish attack — in the Turkish section of the line. That setback was compounded by the Russia-Georgia war which not only halted oil shipments through the BTC regardless of the condition of the Turkish section, but also stopped exports via the Baku-Supsa pipeline and by rail from Azerbaijan to Georgia.

Azerbaijan ended up sending approximately 100,000 bpd of oil — a small fraction of what the country is capable of — north through Russia through the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline. The cessation of most of its oil production has put Azerbaijan in a really difficult place financially, since so much of the country’s economy is based on energy revenues. But even if the BTC and Georgian options are back up and running, Azerbaijan now knows it has to get the Russians approval for its energy to flow to the West. One of the only other options for Azeri crude is to go to Iran, which holds oil swap deals with Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Russia and Azerbaijan. Under the deal, the Caspian producers ship their oil by sea to the Iranian port of Neka, where it flows through a new pipeline to refineries outside of Tehran where it is used for domestic consumption. Iran then exports the same amount of crude from its southern oil fields on behalf of the Caspian suppliers and avoids the cost of shipping its Persian Gulf production north to its Tehran refineries.

Most of the Caspian producers though do not take an active part in the oil swap project because they prefer to fill their existing contracts to Russia or Europe. Kazakhstan has typically been the main Caspian producer to fulfill the oil swap contracts, though the flow from Kazakhstan is not steady. Also, Kazakhstan mostly sends its heavier crude to Iran — a burden for Iran’s refineries, which refine mainly sweet, light crude. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, has just as light and sweet of crude as Iran and is a good fit for Iranian refineries. The Azerbaijani oil is produced by BP, but the oil swap program is not considered an investment into Iran and thus avoids sanction violations. Azerbaijan reportedly only sent 200,000 barrels in this shipment to Iran, though Neka and its pipelines to Tabriz, Tehran and Rey can handle 300,000 barrels. Although the Azeri Energy Ministry said shipments to Iran would only continue while the country’s westward routes were down, with Russia’s move deeper into the Caucasus, shipping oil to Iran could become a recurring option for Baku. This means Iran could free up another 300,000 bpd or more of crude, changing two situations.

First, Iran suffers from severe energy problems, despite ranking among the top three countries in proven oil and natural gas reserves. The main problem is Iran’s lack of refining capacity, but another large problem is that the Iranians send crude northward for refining in the country’s population centers, while the export routes are mainly in the south. This is a costly arrangement. The oil swap program was meant to solve this problem, but none of the Caspian oil producers would fill the contracts because they had better alternatives. With all of Azerbaijan’s alternative energy routes threatened, things have changed for Iran. This leads to the second situation: Iran will be able to export more oil instead of using so much domestically. Iran is the second-largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, behind regional rival Saudi Arabia. However, thanks to a more favorable investment climate, Saudi Arabia produces nearly triple the amount of oil. Iran freeing up some of its oil for export is something Riyadh will definitely notice — and not happily.

This plays into not just Middle Eastern regional politics, but also Iran’s ability to hold its own during negotiations with the West, particularly the United States. Iran has been under pressure domestically, with many issues tied to its fragile energy situation and the sanctions the West has imposed. But while Russia’s moves in the Caucasus are grabbing the United States’ attention during Washington’s tough negotiations with Tehran, the ripple effects could help weaken the United States’ pressure on Iran.

Source: http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/ira...s_btc_shutdown

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Armenian, it seems Abrahamyan doesn't agree with your theory that the "thaw" in Armenian-turkish relations are part of a Moscow initiative, and suspects it to be a malevolent act to further spread pan turkism. What do you make of his assumption that open borders would cause Armenia to be dependent on turkey? I for one do not want to borders open, at best just a few open roads or the Gyumri-Kars railway functioning. The worst thing that could happen is for cheap turkish goods to flood the Armenian market and cause Armenian manufacturers to go out of business.

I strongly disagree with this Abrahamyan. Perhaps he is blind but the signs that Moscow is fully behind (or actively supporting) the warming of relations between Yerevan and Ankara are quite clear. Let me remind you again that Sargsyan first reached his hand out to Ankara right after his meetings with Medvedev and during a public speech while in Moscow. Moreover, Turkey proposed the Caucasus Pact in the immediate aftermath of the war in Georgia, a war during which Ankara indirectly supported Russia's actions. Moreover, Turkish nationalists and Azeris are signaling their strong displeasure about this proposal. Moreover, Moscow has been clearly signaling that it is in favor of the proposal and is now in fact all for the opening of the Armenian-Turkey border - this after years of remaining silent about it. The fact of the matter is, Moscow and Turkey want to continue their very lucrative trade. Due to the war in Georgia and due to the high tensions in the Black Sea region, they have found that Armenia would be a good/logical alternative route for this trade. This is a longterm plan, or an alternative plan, for the two capitols. Eventually Azerbaijan would be dragged into this as well. Nonetheless, they are currently trying to prepare the playing field in Armenia. This is not something that will happen overnight, this will take some time to manifest itself. Trust me, nothing of this significance could have occurred in Yerevan without Moscow being behind it. What does all this mean for Armenia, I don't know. These are those types of situations where there is not much a small, dependent, landlocked and impoverished nation can do but to hope and pray. The following are additional geopolitical perspectives undermining Abrahamyan's stance regarding Ankara:

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Geopolitical Diary: Turkey's Options

With Cold War tensions building in the Black Sea, the Turks have gone into a diplomatic frenzy. Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan had his phone glued to his ear on Thursday speaking to his U.S., British, German, French, Swedish and Finnish counterparts, as well as to the NATO secretary-general and various EU representatives. The Turks are also expecting Georgian Foreign Minister Eka Tkeshelashvili to arrive in Istanbul on Aug. 31. And Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is due to arrive for a separate meeting with Turkish leaders early next week. The Turks have a reason to be such busy diplomatic bees. A group of nine NATO warships are currently in the Black Sea ostensibly on routine and humanitarian missions. Russia has wasted no time in sounding the alarm at the sight of this NATO buildup, calling on Turkey — as the gatekeeper to the Dardanelles and Bosporus straits between the Black and Mediterranean seas — to remember its commitment to the Montreux Convention, which places limits on the number of warships in the Black Sea. As a weak naval power with few assets to defend itself in this crucial frontier, Russia has every interest in keeping the NATO presence in the Black Sea as limited and distant as possible.

Turkey is in an extremely tight spot. As a NATO member in control of Russia’s warm-water naval access to the Black Sea, Turkey is a crucial link in the West’s pressure campaign against Russia. But the Turks have little interest in seeing the Black Sea become a flashpoint between Russia and the United States. Turkey has a strategic foothold in the Caucasus through Azerbaijan that it does not want to see threatened by Moscow. The Turks also simply do not have the military appetite or the internal political consolidation to be pushed by the United States into a potential conflict — naval or otherwise — with the Russians. In addition, the Turks have to worry about their economic health. Russia is Turkey’s biggest trading partner, supplying more than 60 percent of Turkey’s energy needs through two natural gas pipelines, as well as more than half of Turkey’s thermal coal — a factor that has major consequences in the approach of winter. Turkey has other options to meet its energy needs, but there is no denying that it has intertwined itself into a potentially economically precarious relationship with the Russians. And the Russians have already begun using this economic lever to twist Ankara’s arm. A large amount of Turkish goods reportedly have been held up at the Russian Black Sea ports of Novorossiysk, Sochi and Taganrog over the past 20 days ostensibly over narcotics issues. Turkish officials claim that Turkish trucks carrying mostly consumer goods have been singled out for “extensive checks and searches,” putting about $3 billion worth of Turkish trade in jeopardy. The Turks have already filed an official complaint with Moscow over the trade row — with speculation naturally brewing over Russia’s intent to punish Turkey for its participation in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and to push Ankara to limit NATO access to the Black Sea.

[...]

Source: http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical...urkeys_options

Turkey, Iran: Ankara's Priorities Shift

Summary

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s two-day trip to Ankara ended Aug. 15. While the Iranian government and state media have touted his trip as proof that Iran and Turkey are close allies, the Turkish government is far more concerned with containing the current situation in the Caucasus, which could have major implications for Turkey’s ally Azerbaijan.

Analysis

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wrapped up a two-day trip to Ankara on Aug. 15. The Iranian government and state media have been hyping Ahmadinejad’s visit to Turkey for days in an attempt to showcase to the world the Iranian belief that Iran and Turkey, as the two principle non-Arab regional powerhouses, are close and natural allies. But while Iran is eager to forge closer ties with Turkey, the Turks do not have much time for Ahmadinejad right now. Ankara has bigger things on its mind, namely the Russians. Turkey is heir to the Ottoman Empire, which once extended deep into the southern Caucasus region where Russia just wrapped up an aggressive military campaign against Georgia. Turkey’s geopolitical interests in the Caucasus have primarily been defensive in nature, focused on keeping the Russians and Persians at bay. Now that Russia is resurging in the Caucasus, the Turks have no choice but to get involved. The Turks primarily rely on their deep ethnic, historical and linguistic ties to Azerbaijan to extend their influence into the Caucasus. Azerbaijan was alarmed, to say the least, when it saw Russian tanks crossing into Georgia. As far as Azerbaijan was concerned, Baku could have been the next target in Russia’s military campaign.

However, Armenia — Azerbaijan’s primary rival — remembers well the 1915 Armenian genocide by the Turks, and looks to Iran and especially Orthodox Christian Russia for its protection. Now that Russia has shown it is willing to act on behalf of allies like South Ossetia and Abkhazia in the Caucasus, the Armenians, while militarily outmatched by the Azerbaijanis, are now feeling bolder and could see this as their chance to preempt Azerbaijan in yet another battle for the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region— especially if it thinks it can look to Russia to militarily intervene on its behalf. The Turks and their ethnic kin in Azerbaijan are extremely wary of Russia’s intentions for the southern Caucasus beyond Georgia. Sources told Stratfor that Azerbaijan has learned that the Russian military jets that bombed Gori and Poti were based out of Armenia. This development not only signaled a significant expansion of Russia’s military presence in the southern Caucasus, but it also implied that Armenia had actually signed off on the Russian foray into Georgia, knowing that Russian dominance over Georgia would guarantee Armenian security and impose a geographic split between Turkey and Azerbaijan. If the Armenians became overly confident and made a move against Azerbaijan for Nagorno-Karabakh, expecting Russian support, the resulting war would have a high potential of drawing the Turks into a confrontation with the Russians — something that both NATO member Turkey and Russia have every interest in avoiding.

The Turks also have a precarious economic relationship with Russia. The two countries have expanded their trade with each other significantly in recent years. In the first half of 2008, trade between Russia and Turkey amounted to $19.9 billion, making Russia Turkey’s biggest trading partner. Much of this trade is concentrated in the energy sphere. The Turks currently import approximately 64 percent of the natural gas they consume from the Russians. Though Turkey’s geographic position enables it to pursue energy links in the Middle East and the Caucasus that can bypass Russian territory, the Russians have made it abundantly clear over the past few days that the region’s energy security will still depend on Moscow’s good graces. Turkey’s economic standing also largely depends on its ability to act as a major energy transit hub for the West through pipelines such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which was recently forced offline due to a purported Kurdish militant attack and the war in Georgia. Turkey simply cannot afford to see the Russians continue their surge into the Caucasus and threaten its energy supply.

For these reasons, Turkey is on a mission to keep this tinderbox in the Caucasus contained. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan spent the last couple of days meeting with top Russian leaders in Moscow and then with the Georgian president in Tbilisi. During his meetings with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, President Dmitri Medvedev and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Erdogan pushed the idea of creating a Caucasus union that would include both Russia and Georgia. Though this organization would likely be little more than a talk shop, it is a sign of Turkey’s interest in reaching a mutual understanding with Russia that would allow both sides to maintain a comfortable level of influence in the region without coming to blows. The Iranians, meanwhile, are sitting in the backseat. Though Iran has a foothold in the Caucasus through its support for Armenia, the Iranians lack the level of political, military and economic gravitas that Turkey and Russia currently hold in this region. Indeed, Erdogan did not even include Iran in his list of proposed members for the Caucasus union, even though Iran is one of the three major powers bordering the region.

[...]

Source: http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/tur...iorities_shift

Russia supports Turkey’s Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Pact

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov yesterday accused NATO countries of arming Georgia, while at the same time praising the stance of Turkey - itself a member of the alliance, the Turkish Daily News reports. Although Lavrov admitted that Turkey and Russia have different approaches with regards to Georgia’s territorial integrity, he nevertheless voiced support for the Turkish proposal for a regional cooperation mechanism. On a one day visit to Istanbul, Lavrov offered concrete proposals to solve the problems facing Turkish exporters by Russian customs. In a joint news conference with his Turkish counterpart Ali Babacan, Lavrov denied that stricter Russian controls on Turkish imports are politically motivated. The checks resulted in hundreds of Turkish trucks being stranded at Russian border posts over the past few weeks. They raised questions about whether Russia was punishing NATO member Turkey for allowing U.S. warships carrying aid to Georgia to pass through the Bosporus. Lavrov said some countries had breached customs regulations, prompting Russian authorities to take more stringent measures. “We are not discriminating against Turkey,” assured Lavrov. “We offered a more simplified method for Turkish goods,” he said, adding that the custom authorities will meet soon to discuss the issue. Despite his criticism of NATO countries arming Georgia, Lavrov said Turkey’s alliance commitments were not an obstacle for Turkish-Russian relations. “Turkey never used its NATO membership at the expense of violating international principles. While being loyal to its NATO commitments it does not forget its commitments to the UN or OSCE,” said Lavrov, also expressing satisfaction with Turkey’s position on the maritime regime in the Bosporus and the Black Sea.

[...]

Source: http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=26899

U.S. cold to Ankara's Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform

The United States is cold to the idea, saying it had not been informed in advance and that the approach does not include a major Western component, the Turkish Daily News reports. "I was surprised by this announcement of a Caucasus stability pact by the Turkish government," said Matt Bryza, deputy assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs. "I hadn’t been briefed that that was going to happen. We have a partnership with Turkey on the Caucasus, and I presume that we’ll be able to work together very closely now with our allies in Turkey since we do have clearly shared interests, not to mention values, throughout the Caucasus with our Turkish ally." Another U.S. diplomat said later, "We don’t think that the effort is realistic, plus our strategic partnership [with Turkey] should normally require closer consultations with us." Following the hostilities in South Ossetia, Ankara offered a Caucasus stability pact that could unite Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, Turkey and Georgia.

Source: http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=26901

[North Pole]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

America Returns Russian Church Bells After Almost 80 Years

Many thanks to Harvard University.

June 2, 2008, 9:55



Russian church bells that have been ringing out at Harvard University for almost 80 years will soon return to their home at the Danilov monastery in Moscow. Harvard is hosting a bell festival to mark the return and have invited guests from Russia to take part.
The bells were taken from Russia in the 1930s by the wealthy U.S. philanthropist Charles Crane, who bought them in the Soviet Union in the time of the religious purges.

On Thursday, the historic bells will ring in the U.S. for the last time at a graduation ceremony.
Later this summer they will be replaced by a new set made by a Russian foundry under an agreement between Harvard and the Russian Orthodox Church.

The first of 18 bells was replaced last year.

VIDEO - http://russiatoday.ru/news/news/25583/video

Project manager Peter Riley (right) watches as a new Russian-cast bronze bell is hoisted skyward. The new bell replaces the old, at right, which since 1930 has hung in the gold-domed cupola of Baker Library.
Staff photo Rose Lincoln/Harvard News Office

http://www.news.harvard.edu/gazette/2007/08.23/99-bells.html

Old and New: Side by Side

http://www.hbs.edu/news/releases/081307_bell.html

Lowell Bells May Return to Motherland

http://www.thecrimson.com/article.aspx?ref=514166

After 78 years at Harvard, Danilov Bells will return to Russia

By Steve Bradt
FAS Communications

After 78 years of refuge at Harvard University, iconic Russian bells saved from Stalinist efforts to eradicate religious artifacts will return permanently this summer to their one-time home, the Danilov Monastery in Moscow.
The Danilov Bells — known on the Harvard campus as the Lowell House Bells, after the residential building in whose tower they have hung since 1930 — will be replaced by a set of 17 new bells cast by a Russian foundry under terms agreed to by Harvard and the Russian Orthodox Church.
Removal of the Danilov Bells from Lowell House will start in late June, and installation of replacement bells will begin in mid-July.
“Over the years, students developed many styles of ringing the bells, and the ears of generations of Harvard students have become accustomed to their distinctive sound,” says Diana L. Eck, master of Lowell House and professor of comparative religion and Indian studies at Harvard. “Indeed, no great Harvard ceremony is complete without them.”
In addition to ringing at joyous occasions like Harvard’s annual commencement exercises, the bells have tolled over the years to mark somber events such as the 1968 assassination of Martin Luther King Jr. and the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

http://www.news.harvard.edu/gazette/2008/05.29/01-lowellbells.html

The Danilov Monastery purports to be the oldest in Moscow and was founded in 1282 by Prince Daniil Moskovsky, the youngest Son of Alexander Nevsky. Daniil was the first Grand Prince of the new Muscovite Rus and was buried here in the monastery in 1303 and later canonized. Like the city's other monasteries (Novodevichy, Donskoy, Simonov, Novospassky and Andronikov), which were all built between the 13th and 16th centuries, Danilov was not merely a center of religious and spiritual life and a seat of scholarly learning, but a powerful defensive fortress whose walls defended Moscow from attacks by enemy Tartars, Lithuanians and Poles.

Moscow's six major monasteries were all protected by thick, high walls and towers that together formed a defensive half-ring around the city. In 1591 Danilov Monastery played a crucial part in defending the capital of Rus from raids by the Crimean Tartars led by Khan Kazy Girei. In December 1606, the monastery was again the site of a major battle, when the Russian peasant army led by Ivan Bolotnikov fought valiantly but unvictoriously against the troops of Tsar Vasily Shuisky.

The monastery was home not only to monks, but the refuge of many laymen, including the writer Gogol, the musician Rubinshtein and the philosophers Samarin and Khomyakov, founders of the 19th century Slavophile movement, all of whom were buried in the monastery's cemetery.
After 1917 the monastery was one of the last to be closed down and became the refuge of many priests who had been evicted by the Bolsheviks from their own churches and who disagreed with the ethics of the new regime. They became known as "Danilovtsy". In 1930 the monastery was closed and many of its oldest relics and icons disappeared and have never been recovered. In 1931 a statue of Lenin was erected in the central courtyard of the monastery and the buildings were converted into a juvenile reform center. In May of that year the remains of Gogol, Rubinshtein, the Khomyakovs and the poet Nikolai Yazykov, were exhumed from their graves and reburied in Novodevichy Cemetery, and the churchyard destroyed to make room for the construction of new buildings to house the inmates of the reformatory. Most of the inmates of the institution were children whose parents had been arrested or shot during Stalin's purges of the 1930s.

It was only in 1983, over fifty years after its closure, that Daniilov Monastery was returned to the Church and became the official residence of the Moscow Patriarch and the seat of the Holy Synod, which had previously been housed at the Trinity Monastery of St. Sergei, just outside Moscow. In exchange for the return of the monastery, the Church was pressured into financing the establishment of another juvenile reform center elsewhere in the city.
Today many of the monastery's original structures are still standing and have been renovated and augmented with new buildings to house the modern residence of the Patriarch and the administration buildings of the Synod. The monastery's impressive surviving brick walls and towers were added to the monastery complex in the 17th century. Visitors enter the monastery ramparts through the Gate-Church of St. Simeon the Stylite, which was built in 1732 but reconstructed after being torn down in the 1920s by Soviet authorities and its bells sold to Harvard University. The gateway is painted a soft pink, guarded by stout columns and an elaborate cornice and topped by a triple-tiered bell tower decorated with pictures of the Saints. Inside the compound stands the austere Trinity Cathedral, built in 1833 by the architect Osip Bove and featuring plain yellow portico-ed walls topped by a single green cupola. Visitors will also notice the gold-domed Millennium Chapel, adorned with a quadruple arch and built on the site of the earlier statue of Lenin to mark the millennial anniversary of the establishment of Christianity in Russian in 1988. It was impossible to restore the graves destroyed when the cemetery was obliterated by the Bolsheviks, but the newly erected chapel stands as a memorial headstone for all those buried in the monastery grounds.

http://www.moscow-taxi.com/churches/danilov-monastery.html

July 8, 2008, 21:59

Harvard says 'dosvidanya' to Russian bells

Generations of students at one of America’s premier seats of learning have listened to their haunting music. But after almost 80 years, the Russian bells at Harvard have stopped chiming. A lengthy campaign to bring them home is nearly over. Soon they’ll be ringing again at their home in a Moscow monastery.

The seventeenth-century bells were taken from the Danilov Monastery and sold to American businessman Charles Crane during the religious purges of the 1930s. He gave them to Harvard University in Massachusetts.
Attempts to recover the bells were first made almost thirty years.
They are being exchanged for Russian-made replicas.

http://russiatoday.com/features/news/27210

[North Pole]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Bells of Moscow’s Svyato-Danilov Monastery return to Russia from U.S.

1 day ago:

A truck carries the "Lowell House-Danilovsky Bells" through Russian customs upon their arrival in St. Petersburg on September 4, 2008. Eighteen huge brass bells rescued from a Moscow monastery nearly 80 years ago during a Soviet-era crackdown on religion and donated to Harvard University are being returned to Russia.

The monastery’s complement of 18 bells has taken centuries to form. The oldest of them dates from the 17th century and the youngest, from 1904. The largest bell was cast in 1890 at the Finlyandsky factory in Moscow and weighs 13 tons.

1 day ago: A Russian customs officer inspects the "Lowell House-Danilovsky Bells" upon their arrival in St. Petersburg on September 4, 2008. Eighteen huge brass bells rescued from a Moscow monastery nearly 80 years ago during a Soviet-era crackdown on religion and donated to Harvard University are being returned to Russia.

Seventeen bells of Moscow’s Svyato-Danilov Monastery have arrived in the port of St. Petersburg. In the 1930s, they were sold by Soviet Russia to the United States and installed at Harvard University. One bell arrived from the U.S. in September 2007.

The bells of the Svyato-Danilov Monastery will be welcomed at a ceremony on September 7 on St. Isaac’s Square in St. Petersburg, Russia’s second largest city and former capital. The set will be mounted on a special gable and be allowed to ring after almost 80 years of emigration. Similar ceremonies will be held in Veliky Novgorod and Tver. Then the bells will arrive in Moscow where they will be returned to the Svyato-Danilov Monastery at a September 12 ceremony.

The historical bells of Moscow’s Svyato-Danilov Monastery arrived in St. Petersburg from Boston by sea.

MORE PHOTOS -- http://en.rian.ru/photolents/20080905/116567612_5.html

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Very interesting...

Russian units raid Georgian airfields for use in Israeli strike against Iran – report

The raids were disclosed by UPI chief editor Arnaud de Borchgrave, who is also on the Washington Times staff, and picked up by the Iranian Fars news agency. The Russian raids of two Georgian airfields, which Tbilisi had allowed Israel to use for a potential strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, followed the Georgian offensive against South Ossetia on Aug. 7. Under the secret agreement with Georgia, the airfields had been earmarked for use by Israeli fighter-bombers taking off to strike Iran in return for training and arms supplies. DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources report that flying from S. Georgia over the Caspian Sea to Iran would sharply trim the distance to be spanned by Israeli fighter-bombers, reducing flying time to 3.5 hours. Northern Iran and the Tehran region, where most of the nuclear facilities are concentrated, would be within range, with no need to request US permission to pass through Iraq air space. Russian Special Forces also raided other Israeli facilities in southern Georgia and captured Israeli spy drones, says the report. Israel was said to have used the two airfields to “conduct recon flights over southern Russia as well as into nearby Iran.” The US intelligence sources quoted by UPI reported that the Russian force also carried home other Israeli military equipment captured at the air bases. Our sources say that if the Russians got hold of an Israeli unmanned aerial vehicle complete with sophisticated electronic reconnaissance equipment, they will have secured some of the IDF’s most secret devices for spying on Iran and Syria. When this happened before, Russian military engineers quickly dismantled the equipment, studied it and passed the technology on to Tehran and Damascus.

Source: http://www.debka.com/index1.php

In other news:

Russian Army Gets New Drones

The Vega Radio Engineering Corp. has begun delivery of Tipchak unpiloted recognizance complexes to the Russian armed forces, Vega general director Vladimir Verba told Interfax. The first complex will be on duty this year and may be used in “hot spots.” The Tipchak complex was developed by the Luch Design Bureau in Rybinsk. It is intended for recognizance at any time of day with the goal of the discovery, recognition determination of the coordinates of a target in real time within a range of 40 km. from its launch point. Every complex consists of six drones, a transport and launch vehicle, antenna, guidance apparatus and maintenance equipment. The drone is launched by a pneumatic catapult and lands with the use of a parachute. The 50-kg. unit has a piston that is able to propel it at speeds up to 55 km. per hour. It is capable of flights lasting up to two hours. It carries a high-resolution camera that working in normal and infrared light.

Source: http://www.kommersant.com/p-13159/we..._recognizance/

[Artsakh]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Yerevan and Stepanakert have to be convinced of Baku's good intentions and they would need international guarantees they can fully trust.

Baku's good intentions? Are you serious? And how naieve! what dimension are you living in? who's guarantees? what guarantees? There are no guarantees, asides from the boots of our armenian soliders that on are the soil of our lands. thats the only guarantee.

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Very interesting...

Russian units raid Georgian airfields for use in Israeli strike against Iran – report

The raids were disclosed by UPI chief editor Arnaud de Borchgrave, who is also on the Washington Times staff, and picked up by the Iranian Fars news agency. The Russian raids of two Georgian airfields, which Tbilisi had allowed Israel to use for a potential strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, followed the Georgian offensive against South Ossetia on Aug. 7. Under the secret agreement with Georgia, the airfields had been earmarked for use by Israeli fighter-bombers taking off to strike Iran in return for training and arms supplies. DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources report that flying from S. Georgia over the Caspian Sea to Iran would sharply trim the distance to be spanned by Israeli fighter-bombers, reducing flying time to 3.5 hours. Northern Iran and the Tehran region, where most of the nuclear facilities are concentrated, would be within range, with no need to request US permission to pass through Iraq air space. Russian Special Forces also raided other Israeli facilities in southern Georgia and captured Israeli spy drones, says the report. Israel was said to have used the two airfields to “conduct recon flights over southern Russia as well as into nearby Iran.” The US intelligence sources quoted by UPI reported that the Russian force also carried home other Israeli military equipment captured at the air bases. Our sources say that if the Russians got hold of an Israeli unmanned aerial vehicle complete with sophisticated electronic reconnaissance equipment, they will have secured some of the IDF’s most secret devices for spying on Iran and Syria. When this happened before, Russian military engineers quickly dismantled the equipment, studied it and passed the technology on to Tehran and Damascus.

Source: http://www.debka.com/index1.php

More on this development:

USA ISRAEL September Surprise for Attack on Iran

While the rest of the pundits opine about the meaning and implications of Sarah Palin's ascension from small town mayor to prospective vice president – and whether or not her daughter's private life is fair game for any media outlet other than the National Enquirer those of us whose job it is to stand watch on the ramparts and report the real news are wondering when – not if – the War Party will pull a rabbit out of the proverbial hat. For months, I've been warning in this space that an American attack on Iran is imminent, and now I see that the Dutch have reason to agree with my assessment. Their intelligence service reportedly has pulled out of a covert operation inside Iran on the grounds that a U.S. strike is right around the corner – in "a matter of weeks," according to De Telegraaf, a Dutch newspaper. As the story goes, the Dutch had infiltrated the purported Iranian weapons project and were firmly ensconced when they got word that the Americans are about to launch a missile attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. They wisely decided to close down the operation and pull out. Remember, the Israelis have been threatening to strike on their own for months: what's changed is that now, apparently, the U.S. has caved in to what is a blatant case of blackmail and has agreed to do the job for them. We haven't heard much about Iran lately, at least compared to the scare headlines of a few months ago, when rumors of war were swirling fast and furious. The Russian "threat" seems to have replaced the Iranian "threat" as the War Party's bogeyman of choice. What we didn't know, however, is that the two focal points are intimately related.

According to this report by veteran Washington Times correspondent Arnaud de Borchgrave, the close cooperation of the Israelis with the Georgian military in the run-up to President Saakashvili's blitz of South Ossetia was predicated on a Georgian promise to let the Israelis use Georgia's airfields to mount a strike against Iran. The main problem for Tel Aviv, in making its threats against Iran at all credible, has been the distance to be covered by Israeli fighter jets, which would have a hard time reaching and returning from their targets without refueling. With access to the airfields of "the Israel of the Caucasus," as de Borchgrave – citing Saakashvili – puts it, the likelihood of an Israeli attack entered the world of real possibilities. De Borchgrave avers: "In a secret agreement between Israel and Georgia, two military airfields in southern Georgia had been earmarked for the use of Israeli fighter-bombers in the event of pre-emptive attacks against Iranian nuclear installations. This would sharply reduce the distance Israeli fighter-bombers would have to fly to hit targets in Iran. And to reach Georgian airstrips, the Israeli air force would fly over Turkey. "The attack ordered by Saakashvili against South Ossetia the night of Aug. 7 provided the Russians the pretext for Moscow to order Special Forces to raid these Israeli facilities where some Israeli drones were reported captured." Reports of anywhere from 100 to 1,000 Israeli "advisers" in Georgia do not bode well for the situation on the ground. With the Israelis already installed in that country, the logistics of carrying out such a sneak attack are greatly simplified. Israeli pilots would only have to fly over Azerbaijan, and they'd be in Iranian airspace – and within striking distance of Tehran.

Faced with this fait accompli – if the Dutch are to be believed – the Americans seem to have capitulated. In which case, we don't have much time. Although de Borchgrave writes "whether the IAF can still count on those air bases to launch bombing missions against Iran's nuke facilities is now in doubt," I don't see why the defeat of the Georgians in Saakashvili's war on the Ossetians has to mean the plan to strike Iran via Georgia has been canceled. Indeed, reading de Borchgrave's riveting account of the extent of the Tel Aviv-Tbilisi collaboration, one finds additional reasons for all concerned to go ahead with it: "Saakashvili was convinced that by sending 2,000 of his soldiers to serve in Iraq (who were immediately flown home by the United States when Russia launched a massive counterattack into Georgia), he would be rewarded for his loyalty. He could not believe President Bush, a personal friend, would leave him in the lurch. Georgia, as Saakashvili saw his country's role, was the 'Israel of the Caucasus.'" Saakashvili, a vain and reckless man, now has even more reason to go behind Uncle Sam's back and give the Israelis a clear shot at Tehran. With this sword of Damocles hanging over the heads of the Americans, the rationale for a more limited, shot-across-the-bow strike by the U.S. becomes all too clear.

After all, if the Israelis attacked, the entire Muslim world would unite behind the Iranians. If, on the other had, the U.S. did Israel's dirty work, with Tel Aviv lurking in the background, it would conceivably be far less provocative, and might even generate sub rosa support among the Sunni rulers of America's Arab allies. It's going to happen anyway, goes the rationale, and so we might as well do it the right way, rather than leave it to the Israelis, who have threatened – via "independent" commentators like Israeli historian and super hawk Benny Morris – to use nuclear weapons on Iran's population centers. In terms of American domestic politics, the road to war with Tehran was paved long ago: both major parties and their presidential candidates have given the War Party a green light to strike Tehran, McCain explicitly and Obama tacitly, albeit no less firmly. The stage is set, rehearsals are over, and the actors know their lines: as the curtain goes up on the first act of "World War III," take a deep breath and pray to the gods that this deadly drama is aborted.

Source: http://www.daily.pk/world/worldnews/7112.html?task=view

[Armanen]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Further proof that baku really is in panic mode.


Georgia-Russian war devalued international law and territorial integrity, Baku says

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The point is that the defeat of Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili on the South-Ossetian and Abkhazian fronts reduced to mere theory Azerbaijan’s plans to re-take the lands by use of force,” Rasim Aghayev said.

“Georgia has compromised the very strategic formula of Azerbaijan in the resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict based on international law. After the Georgian-Russian war, international law and territorial integrity seem to be neglected.”
“Serzh Sargsyan, who demonstrates self-assertion after the events in Georgia, takes into account these nuances and even so more he sees the amenability of the Turkish leadership, which is making open steps for unblocking the border with Armenia and establishing normal relations with it. As result, we see that Armenia’s policy, which stakes on ignoring the international law and openly demonstrates territorial claims to all neighbor states, is more suitable in conditions of the established geopolitical realities in our region. This allows Serzh Sargsyan to put pressure on Azerbaijan,” he said, adding that if political and economic rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey takes place, Azerbaijan should create a new bloc to deal with the resolution of territorial disputes.

“Moreover in exchange for Armenia’s disavowal of territorial claims to Azerbaijan, official Baku may start unblocking borders with Armenia,” Aghayev resumed, Day.az reported

http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=26945

And this made me laugh a little.


azeri Democratic Party: turkey always betrayed azerbaijan

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Turkey has always pursued its own objectives, an Azeri politician said.

In the beginning of last century it changed 3 military blocs. First, it was a member of the Entente and fought against Italy, then it joined the Tripartite Alliance and fought against the Entente. When these two blocs collapsed, Turkey threw itself into Russia's arms," said Sardar Jalaloglu, head of the Democratic Party of Azerbaijan.

Turkey always betrayed Azerbaijan. "It started was against Safavids and then surrendered our republic in early 20th century. Now Gul goes to Armenia. It's in Turkey's habit to betray Azerbaijan. We should not be surprised but should build our policy to avoid cataclysms," he said, 1news.az reports.

http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=26948

[crusader1492]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Further proof that baku really is in panic mode.


Georgia-Russian war devalued international law and territorial integrity, Baku says

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The point is that the defeat of Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili on the South-Ossetian and Abkhazian fronts reduced to mere theory Azerbaijan’s plans to re-take the lands by use of force,” Rasim Aghayev said.

“Georgia has compromised the very strategic formula of Azerbaijan in the resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict based on international law. After the Georgian-Russian war, international law and territorial integrity seem to be neglected.”
“Serzh Sargsyan, who demonstrates self-assertion after the events in Georgia, takes into account these nuances and even so more he sees the amenability of the Turkish leadership, which is making open steps for unblocking the border with Armenia and establishing normal relations with it. As result, we see that Armenia’s policy, which stakes on ignoring the international law and openly demonstrates territorial claims to all neighbor states, is more suitable in conditions of the established geopolitical realities in our region. This allows Serzh Sargsyan to put pressure on Azerbaijan,” he said, adding that if political and economic rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey takes place, Azerbaijan should create a new bloc to deal with the resolution of territorial disputes.

“Moreover in exchange for Armenia’s disavowal of territorial claims to Azerbaijan, official Baku may start unblocking borders with Armenia,” Aghayev resumed, Day.az reported

http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=26945

And this made me laugh a little.


azeri Democratic Party: turkey always betrayed azerbaijan

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Turkey has always pursued its own objectives, an Azeri politician said.

In the beginning of last century it changed 3 military blocs. First, it was a member of the Entente and fought against Italy, then it joined the Tripartite Alliance and fought against the Entente. When these two blocs collapsed, Turkey threw itself into Russia's arms," said Sardar Jalaloglu, head of the Democratic Party of Azerbaijan.

Turkey always betrayed Azerbaijan. "It started was against Safavids and then surrendered our republic in early 20th century. Now Gul goes to Armenia. It's in Turkey's habit to betray Azerbaijan. We should not be surprised but should build our policy to avoid cataclysms," he said, 1news.az reports.

http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=26948

Azerbaijan seems to do the opposite o what a mature state would do when it suffer diplomatic setbacks. That is, they act in an overly emotional and impetuous manner.
In this case, things are not going 100% their way concerning Turkey (they're greatest ally) and in true Azeri style, they bite the hand that feeds them.
Lets hope they continue to be stupid.