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Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations
Good analysis. One thing that need to be emphasized repeatedly is that Russia also has say over Central Asia {as you mentioned above}. They will decide the route of oil and gas coming from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Russia wants to not only control the flow of resources but also render BTC and the contemplated Nabucco route useless. Consumers for Russian and Caspian oil and gas will have to rely on Russia. If the EU/US grumbles, China will then become their foremost customer. Russia is in the drivers seat.
The only caveat for Armenia is that if the Azeris cave in to Russian demands, which they very well may and sooner than we think, and re-route their oil and gas through Russia entirely, Armenia may lose some strategic value to Russia {this could be bad for Artsakh in the long run} though at the same time, Armenia is already important to Russia in that it offers the Russia a base against Turkey and Iran.
I also believe that if it were ever worked {not that it will} that Armenia was a transit route for resources in the future, say as a replacement to Georgia via BTC or another contemplated route, this would sour Armenian-Russian relations. Russia wants total control and I don't see how they can be denied. They would see that as a betrayal.
Originally posted by Armenian
In short, Russia's defeat of Georgia changed the whole geopolitical character of the region and beyond, and has also resulted in elevating Armenia's political status in the Caucasus. Armenia today is in a very unique position.
Until recently, Turkey received its energy supplies from Azerbaijan via crucial western funded pipelines in Georgia. These pipelines are now out of service as a result of the recent war in Georgia and their future, as well as the future of Georgia, seem uncertain because Moscow would like to monopolize the distribution of Central Asian energy assets as well as finally drive out western interests from the region. As a result of the short but intense war against Tbilisi, Moscow now fully controls the political and economic climate in the Caucasus.
Moscow has in effect severed Turkey's easy access to Central Asian energy, and has also negatively effected Ankara's trade with Russia. It's important to note here that Russia and Turkey have a very lucrative multi-billion dollar annual trade. Naturally, Ankara desperately needs reliable access to oil and gas as well as its lucrative trade with Russia. So, as a result of the recent war in Georgia and the very tense situation in the Black Sea, Turkey is being forced to look toward Russia for survival. And Ankara is seeking an alternative land route to Russia and eastward.
Since Iran is a major regional player and a serious competitor to Turkey, Ankara will not put itself in a position where it has to depend on Tehran. This leaves Armenia as the only nation in the region that holds the eastern gates. Since Ankara cannot threaten Armenia militarily due to the Russian presence in the country, Ankara is in essence forced to approach Yerevan with a peace proposal.
Signs that Moscow is fully behind (or actively supporting) the warming of relations between Yerevan and Ankara are quite clear. It seems as if Moscow is attempting to drive a wedge between the West and Turkey and one of the tools they seem to be using is Armenia, the other being oil/gas/trade. Remember that Serj Sargsyan reached his hand out to Ankara right after his meetings with Medvedev and during a public speech while in Moscow last month. Moreover, Turkey proposed the Caucasus union/pact in the immediate aftermath of the war in Georgia, a war during which Ankara indirectly supported Russia's actions. Moreover, Washington, Turkish nationalists and Azeris are signaling their strong displeasure about Ankara's proposal. Moreover, Moscow has been clearly signaling that it is in favor of the proposal and is now in fact all for the opening of the Armenian-Turkey border - this after years of remaining silent about it. Due to the war in Georgia and due to the high tensions in the Black Sea region, they have found that Armenia would be a good/logical alternative route for this trade. Eventually they will attempt to drag Azerbaijan into this as well. Nonetheless, they are currently trying to prepare the playing field in Armenia. I have covered this topic in the following posts:
http://forum.armenianclub.com/showpo...postcount=2433
Until recently, Turkey received its energy supplies from Azerbaijan via crucial western funded pipelines in Georgia. These pipelines are now out of service as a result of the recent war in Georgia and their future, as well as the future of Georgia, seem uncertain because Moscow would like to monopolize the distribution of Central Asian energy assets as well as finally drive out western interests from the region. As a result of the short but intense war against Tbilisi, Moscow now fully controls the political and economic climate in the Caucasus.
Moscow has in effect severed Turkey's easy access to Central Asian energy, and has also negatively effected Ankara's trade with Russia. It's important to note here that Russia and Turkey have a very lucrative multi-billion dollar annual trade. Naturally, Ankara desperately needs reliable access to oil and gas as well as its lucrative trade with Russia. So, as a result of the recent war in Georgia and the very tense situation in the Black Sea, Turkey is being forced to look toward Russia for survival. And Ankara is seeking an alternative land route to Russia and eastward.
Since Iran is a major regional player and a serious competitor to Turkey, Ankara will not put itself in a position where it has to depend on Tehran. This leaves Armenia as the only nation in the region that holds the eastern gates. Since Ankara cannot threaten Armenia militarily due to the Russian presence in the country, Ankara is in essence forced to approach Yerevan with a peace proposal.
Signs that Moscow is fully behind (or actively supporting) the warming of relations between Yerevan and Ankara are quite clear. It seems as if Moscow is attempting to drive a wedge between the West and Turkey and one of the tools they seem to be using is Armenia, the other being oil/gas/trade. Remember that Serj Sargsyan reached his hand out to Ankara right after his meetings with Medvedev and during a public speech while in Moscow last month. Moreover, Turkey proposed the Caucasus union/pact in the immediate aftermath of the war in Georgia, a war during which Ankara indirectly supported Russia's actions. Moreover, Washington, Turkish nationalists and Azeris are signaling their strong displeasure about Ankara's proposal. Moreover, Moscow has been clearly signaling that it is in favor of the proposal and is now in fact all for the opening of the Armenian-Turkey border - this after years of remaining silent about it. Due to the war in Georgia and due to the high tensions in the Black Sea region, they have found that Armenia would be a good/logical alternative route for this trade. Eventually they will attempt to drag Azerbaijan into this as well. Nonetheless, they are currently trying to prepare the playing field in Armenia. I have covered this topic in the following posts:
http://forum.armenianclub.com/showpo...postcount=2433
The only caveat for Armenia is that if the Azeris cave in to Russian demands, which they very well may and sooner than we think, and re-route their oil and gas through Russia entirely, Armenia may lose some strategic value to Russia {this could be bad for Artsakh in the long run} though at the same time, Armenia is already important to Russia in that it offers the Russia a base against Turkey and Iran.
I also believe that if it were ever worked {not that it will} that Armenia was a transit route for resources in the future, say as a replacement to Georgia via BTC or another contemplated route, this would sour Armenian-Russian relations. Russia wants total control and I don't see how they can be denied. They would see that as a betrayal.
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