The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Yes, we've got to wait to see the final outcome of this mess but as far as I'm concerned, we Armenians will not be afraid of the current situation as long as the recent warming does not gradually lead to 'opening the borders' or 'recognizing the current Turkish borders' or 'dropping the Genocide recognition off the agenda of the State', other than that the recent developpments coming from Yerevan could not be tolerated. My primary concern would be the aforementioned and not a few words exchanged between the presidents for a show and under foreign pressure.

I agree Lucin, but it's a bit more than just foreign pressure at play here.

Foremost, what we Armenian desperately need to understand is that Gul's historic visit to Armenia was an Armenian VICTORY and not a defeat. Despite Yerevan's iron grip over Nagorno Karabagh, despite Yerevan not abandoning the Hai Dat, despite Yerevan's close strategic partnership with Moscow, the Turk swallowed his pride, ignored domestic complaints, ignored western complaints and disregarded Baku's objections and went to Yerevan with a stretched out hand. Whether he did this willingly or unwillingly does not matter, he did it. I know for sure that Gul never imagined he would have to do this. And, most probably, he is blaming Saakashvili for the difficult mess he is in because it was Tbilisi's historic blunder that created this situation in the Caucasus.

Again - thus far - this is an Armenian victory, let's see what Yerevan can do to benefit from this unique situation. Nevertheless, some in our community are treating this whole ordeal as if its another black page in our history. I tell you, sometimes the depth of our ignorance seems to be bottomless... Please closely read the materials I am posting in this thread without emotions, it will help to place the many geopolitical pieces together. And please don't pay attention to the ignorant/extremist ideologies currently being spread within our communities. I have been reading and hearing a lot of very-very stupid, almost mentally retarded, comments about Sergei Lavrov's official stance over Karabagh and about Yerevan inviting Gul to Armenia. Some people in our community, including so-called prominant/educated ones, are making this very complex/very pivotal geopolitical situation look like some primitive tribal warfare where one village attacks another.

Have no illusions, however, all this might indeed lead to the opening of borders between Armenia and Turkey; after all, that is what this is all about. Nevertheless, there are no indications that the current state of politics will lead to the abandonment of our Hai Dat, which is also indirectly connected to Turkey's territorial integrity, or that the status of Nagorno Karabagh will suffer.

I feel that one of the things Armenia may be forced to do (in an increasingly critical time) is the recognizing current Turkish borders, though I hope it doesn't happen.

We don't need to jump to any conclusions as of yet. However, a government, in theory and practice, does not necessarily have to demand a certain piece of territory from another nation (Western Armenia) in official documents in order to attempt its seizure at a later date. There have been numerous instances throughout history where a nation has officially recognized another nation's borders yet they have worked towards undermining it. The only way Western Armenia can be brought back under Armenian rule is through war, simple as that. No documents, no treaties, no diplomacy, no debate, only war. Sadly, we, as a people, are not very knowledgeable about history and the role of politics within it.

Anyway, as I said earlier, I think Azerbaijan will be dragged into this situation. Moscow and Ankara realize that Nagorno Karabgah will not be going back under Baku's rule and that the current state of the region's geopolitics is way above and beyond Baku's claims over Nagorno Karabagh. Worst case scenario will be for Armenian forces to pull back from territories outside of Nagorno Karabagh's recognized borders in a peace deal with Baku.

Due to the war in Georgia and due to the high tensions in the Black Sea region, Ankara and Moscow have found that Armenia would be a good and logical alternative route for their trade. Eventually, due to geographic reasons, they will attempt to drag Azerbaijan into this as well. I don't believe any of this will have a negative impact on the status of Nagorno Karabagh. Nonetheless, they are currently trying to prepare the playing field in Armenia.

It's happening sooner than I anticipated... Then again, Ankara is desperate and Russia is restless. Therefore, it's not all that surprising. Ankara needs reliable supplies of energy and the continuation of its lucrative trade with Russia; Moscow needs a stable Caucasus under its direct influence. Thus, the current political state of the region. In reality, Yerevan today has more political weight than it ever did. Yerevan better not screw up this opportunity.

Armenian

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Gul going to mediate between Armenian and Azeri Presidents

Turkish President Abdullah Gul intends to mediate tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Gul was quoted saying by Hurriyet daily. He is planning a visit to Azerbaijan in the near future. “I have enlisted support of my Armenian counterpart Serzh Sargsyan to arrange the meeting. And I am hopeful to receive consent from Azerbaijan’s Ilham Aliyev. I will meet with him soon to discuss the details and will brief on the outcomes of my visit to Armenia,” Gul said. Turkish experts do not rule out that Presidents of Armenia, Russia, Turkey and Azerbaijan can meet to discuss the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. Gul was in Yerevan on Sept. 6 to watch a World Cup qualifier between the Armenian and Turkish national teams. Before the match, the heads of state discussed possibilities to normalize bilateral relations. "We hope we will be able to demonstrate goodwill to solve the problems between our countries and not leave them to future generations," Armenian President Sargsyan said after the meeting.

Source http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=26968

Turkey Plays to Russia in Caucasus

Russia and Turkey have set to fulfilling the program of creating the Caucasus Cooperation and Stability Platform. Past weekend, Turkish President Abdullah Gul endeavored to persuade his Armenian counterpart Serge Sarkisian of the need to set up a new alliance. The same issue was discussed when Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Elmar Mamediyarov visited Moscow. The alliance will strengthen the Caucasus standing of Moscow and Ankara and weaken the position of Washington there. Gul that arrived in Armenia Saturday was the first Turkish leader to set foot in that country. The highlights of the meeting were the improvement of bilateral relations and the chances to create the Caucasus Cooperation and Stability Platform. Erevan backed up the initiative of Ankara, and President Sarkisian assured that Armenia had been always welcoming the dialogue and had always stood for enhancing the confidence, security and cooperation in the region. The presidents will proceed with the talks when Sarkisian visits Ankara by invitation of Abdullah Gul. For Erevan, the emergence of the platform means its relations with Turkey will become normal, the border will open and the goods of Armenia will flow to the markets of Turkey. Azerbaijan didn’t hail that visit of Turkish president, which, however, will hardly prevent Baku from joining a new alliance initiated by Turkey should it wish to do so, of course. Although Azerbaijan has been manifesting the strive for cooperating with the West and for joining the NATO, the war for South Ossetia might have made some changes. As to Moscow, it may offer two weighty arguments to Azerbaijan in an attempt to win its support and abandon the western collaboration. Both of them relate to settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, while Georgia will serve as a negative example. That state failed to deal with Abkhazia and South Ossetia all support of the United States notwithstanding.

Source: http://www.kommersant.com/p1022936/Turkey_Caucasus/

Sergei Karaganov: Russia wants Turkey-Armenia reconciliation

Russia is interested in normalization of the Armenian-Turkish relations, said Sergei Karaganov, chairman of the presidium of the council for foreign policy and defense. He voiced hope that cooperation between the two states can ensure stability in the region. “Hostility between Armenia and Turkey has always been a factor influencing the world policy. This presidential meeting is a historical event, which means that the ice has been broken,” he told the Echo of Moscow. “It’s evident that the two countries are trying to reconcile because they feel the necessity to unite to face new challenges and regional instability,” he said. Turkey’s President Abdullah Gul was in Yerevan on Sept. 6 to watch a World Cup qualifier between the Armenian and Turkish national teams. Before the match, the heads of state discussed possibilities to normalize bilateral relations.

Source: http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=26962

The Caucasus: Small War, Big Damage

Georgia's attempt to take South Ossetia has backfired. In a blitzkrieg, Russia drove the Georgian military completely out of South Ossetia. Moscow also made forays into Georgian territory. Many people in Turkey and across the transatlantic community have interpreted the war as a by-product of Georgia's aggressive attitude, and then propagated a neutral position toward the conflict. Whatever is the cause of the war, Russia's foray into Georgia cannot be dismissed as nuisance. The war has immense negative ramifications for the transatlantic community, including Turkey and the United States, as well as the European Union, or EU.

Russia's motives

The major impact of the war has been in the realm of energy and pipeline politics. Russia may not be a global superpower anymore, but it is certainly an "energy power." Moscow's strength lies in immense oil and natural gas reserves. Such that, even though Russia's population of 145 million is twice as big as the Turkish population, the Russian economy is smaller than its Turkish counterpart if the energy sector's contribution is subtracted. Energy sector's behemoth dominance in the Russian economy shapes Russia's foreign policy motives. Russian gas giant Gazprom's policies and Russian foreign policy serve each other's mutual interests. Russia takes advantage of exorbitant energy prices to increase its political and military power -- the arms industry is the second largest sector of the Russian economy after energy. Energy politics is key to Russia's military and political ascent especially in the former USSR. In order to grow further, Russia wants to achieve monopoly over the global distribution of oil and natural gas from the former USSR countries. This rationale seems to be the driving factor vision of Georgia. When the Cold War ended and the USSR was dissolved, the United States allied with Turkey to create a blue print to bring the newly explored oil and natural gas from the Caspian basin to the global markets. The shared U.S.-Turkish vision aimed to market Azeri, Kazakh, and Turkmen oil and gas to the world, not via Russia, but through the East-West corridor spanning the Caspian Sea and Turkey.

Georgia and Armenia

The U.S.-Turkish vision worked well in the pre-9/11 era when Russia was under the politically incompetent rule of Boris Yeltsin and Moscow was economically weak due to low oil and natural gas prices. As a first step along the East-West corridor, the U.S. and Turkey backed the building of Baku-Tiflis-Ceyhan oil and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipelines. The second phase of the U.S.-Turkish vision envisaged extending these pipelines; east to Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, and west to Europe. A big part of that vision was the Nabucco pipeline between Turkey and Austria, the poster child for EU's energy policy that would have for the first time allowed Europeans to buy Caspian gas without Russian intermediary. Russia's occupation of Georgia has dealt a blow to such plans. Georgia and Armenia are two countries along the East-West corridor that lie between the Caspian basin and Turkey. Since Turkey's border with Armenia is closed, this leaves Georgia as a key country along the corridor. Georgia is mutilated by Russia and unstable. It is hard to imagine today how any energy company would invest in extensions to the East-West corridor, along which Georgia has become the weak link. By occupying Georgia, Russia has exhausted the U.S-Turkish plans to boost the East-West corridor and make Turkey an entrepot of Caspian energy. Moscow has also preemptively blocked the EU's plans to buy energy from the Caspian basin without having to go through Russia.

Back in the USSR

A second transatlantic casualty of Russia's invasion of Georgia is the West's political influence in the former USSR. Since the 1990s, Turkey and the U.S. have managed to wield influence over countries in the former USSR, especially Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Ukraine, building military and political ties with these states. Now that Russia has taught Georgia a lesson about its pro-Western stance, Ukraine and Azerbaijan will think twice next time they have a chance to take cue from the United States or Turkey, respectively. Russia's foray into Georgia has demonstrated to the countries of the former USSR that Russia is the regional hegemon and that they better listen to it. As long as oil and natural gas prices remain high, Russia will project further political and military influence over the Caucuses and the Black Sea basin, and such influence will come at the expense of the transatlantic community. Russia's invasion of Georgia is a milestone that marks the dawn of a new era. A small war has indeed produced big results.

Source: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/t...6.php?CID=1176

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

“Go ahead and squeal, Yanquis,”... Words uttered by Hugo Chavez today as he revealed that later on this year a contingent of Russian Navy warships will conduct war games in Venezuelan waters. Earlier, referring to the US naval presence in the Black Sea, Medvedev had said: "I wonder how they would like it if we sent humanitarian assistance using our navy to countries of the Caribbean that have suffered from the recent hurricanes,"...

Make no mistake about it, this is 'big' news.

Armenian

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Russia to base nuclear warship and anti-submarine aircraft in Venezuela

(Russia said on Monday it would send a heavily-armed nuclear-powered cruiser to the Caribbean for a joint naval exercise with Venezuela, its first major manoeuvres on the United States' doorstep since the Cold War. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko said on Monday that the naval mission to Venezuela would include the nuclear-powered battle cruiser "Peter the Great", one of the world's largest combat battleships)

"Before the end of the year, as part of a long-distance expedition, we plan a visit to Venezuela by a Russian navy flotilla... and the temporary basing of anti-submarine aircraft of the Russian Navy at an airport in Venezuela," spokesman Andrei Nesterenko was quoted by Reuters as saying. The Venezuelan navy announced Saturday that four Russian ships with almost 1,000 sailors aboard would carry out joint manoeuvres with the navy of Caracas leftist government in Venezuelan territorial waters on November 10-14. The four ships will include the Peter the Great nuclear-powered guided missile cruiser and the Admiral Chabanenko anti-submarine ship, Nesterenko told a briefing in Moscow. The visit has been planned for a long time and "is not in any way connected to the current situation in the Caucasus," said Nesterenko, referring to tensions over Russia’s incursion into U.S. ally Georgia in August. "It is not aimed at any third country," he said. Medvedev accused the United States of rearming Georgia under the guise of humanitarian aid, after Friday’s arrival of the U.S. Navy's Mediterranean flagship at a key Georgian port close to where Russian troops are patrolling. "I wonder how they would like it if we sent humanitarian assistance using our navy to countries of the Caribbean that have suffered from the recent hurricanes," Medvedev said.

HIGH VISIBILITY

The 'Peter the Great' is large and heavily armed with both surface-to-surface and around 500 surface-to-air missiles, Jon Rosamund, the editor of Jane's Navy International, a specialist publication told Reuters. "On paper it's an immensely powerful ship," he said. "We are not really sure if this is a show of force or if it poses a viable operational capability at this stage," Rosamund said. "These ships have far more capability, on paper, than the U.S. destroyers that went to the Black Sea, but it's difficult to compare capacity," Rosamund said. "The Russian navy is keen to be seen on the world stage." Admiral Eduard Baltin, former commander of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, said the Caribbean manoeuvres meant "Russia is returning to the stage in its power and international relations which it, regrettably, lost at the end of last century". "No one loves the weak," Baltin was quoted as saying by Russia's Interfax news agency. Leftist-populist President Hugo Chavez, a harsh critic of the U.S. government, has forged closer ties with Moscow including arms supply and production deals. Chavez has supported Moscow in the Georgia conflict, and stressed that "Russia is rising up again as a global power." Russia’s defense ministry in July denied a report it was considering basing bomber aircraft in Cuba in retaliation for U.S. missile defense plans in Eastern Europe. "We regard these sorts of reports from anonymous sources as disinformation," RIA Novosti quoted defense ministry spokesman Ilshat Baichurin as saying.

Source: http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/w...d=244&sz=59907

Russia and Venezuela Confirm Joint Military Exercises

Chafing at the reactivation in recent weeks of an American naval fleet in Latin American waters, President Hugo Chávez said Sunday that Venezuela could engage in naval exercises with Russian ships in the Caribbean before the end of the year. Mr. Chávez’s words echoed news reports here over the weekend that four warships with as many as 1,000 sailors from Russia’s Pacific Fleet could take part in a training exercise in November off Venezuela’s coast. Salvatore Cammarata Bastidas, Venezuela’s chief of naval intelligence, said the exercises were aimed at strengthening military ties. Russian officials confirmed on Monday that Russian naval ships, including the nuclear-powered guided missile cruiser Peter the Great and the anti-submarine ship Admiral Chabanenko, will dock in Venezuela by the end of the year. The ships will engage in joint exercises with Venezuelan warships in the Atlantic Ocean, Russian Navy Assistant Commander Capt. Igor Dygalo told the Interfax news agency on Monday. “The ships will have joint maneuvers, practice search and rescue at sea and check communications," he said. Anatoly Nesterenko, a Russian foreign ministry spokesman, said, “The temporary deployment of Russian Navy anti-sub aircraft at an air field in that country is also planned.” He said the operations were not a reaction to the tensions between the United States and Russia over Georgia. “This is a planned operation, and is not in any way connected to current political events, nor to the situation in the Caucasus,” he said. “These exercises will in no way be directed against the interests of a third country.” But Mr. Chávez made clear he had the United States in mind when discussing the joint naval operations. “Go ahead and squeal, Yanquis,” Mr. Chávez said in a mocking tone on his Sunday television program, adding, “Russia’s naval fleet is welcome here.” But Mr. Chávez qualified his remarks by saying that planning for the maneuvers was in the “preparation phase,” pending decisions by the Russian government. After the war in Georgia, the Kremlin has expressed increasing frustration over the presence of NATO and American ships in the Black Sea. On Saturday, after an American ship delivered humanitarian aid to Georgia at its Black Sea port of Poti, President Dmitri A. Medvedev of Russia suggested that the United States was encroaching on Russia’s sphere of influence. A few days before the conflict in Georgia, Russia’s prime minister, Vladimir V. Putin, announced that Russia would bolster its relations with Cuba, Venezuela’s top ally. But Russian officials at the same time denied that they would deploy military hardware there. Venezuela has gone out of its way to strengthen relations with Russia. In addition to welcoming Russian investment, Mr. Chávez has emerged as a major buyer of Russian arms. Last month, he also backed Russia’s recognition of two Georgian breakaway regions. Mr. Chávez has framed his warming to Russia within his government’s concern over the reactivation in July of the United States Navy’s Fourth Fleet in Latin American waters after a five-decade lull.

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/09/wo...html?ref=world

Venezuela, Russia to hold joint naval drills in late November

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has announced the timeframe for the upcoming Russian-Venezuelan naval exercise, arranged in line with Russia's plans to extend its presence in international waters. "Venezuela will hold joint naval exercises in the Caribbean in late November-early December," Chavez said Sunday on his weekly TV show, "Hello, President." According to earlier media reports, Venezuelan navy officials said four Russian warships and a number of Venezuelan missile frigates, patrol boats, submarines and aircraft would take part in the joint drills on November 10-14. The president dismissed criticism of the joint exercise with Russia by comparing it with the Southern Cross naval war games involving the Dutch, French and Brazilian navies, which are scheduled for November 2-14. "Russia is a strategic partner of Venezuela and we will do everything possible ... to ensure the success of the upcoming exercise," Chavez said. Chavez, an outspoken critic of Washington since coming to power nine years ago, has focused his foreign policy on bolstering ties with countries outside the U.S. sphere of influence. In 2005-2006, Venezuela bought more than 50 combat helicopters, 24 Su-30MK2 fighters, 12 Tor-M1 air defense missile systems and 100,000 AK-103 rifles from Russia. Current arms contracts are worth about $4 billion, according to various sources. Future deliveries may include Amur-class diesel submarines, Il-76MD military transport planes, Il-78 aerial tankers and air-defense missile systems.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/world/20080908/116607502.html

In related news:

Russia, Kazakhstan maneuver to repel “South Aggression”

An active phase of Russian-Kazakhstani military exercises Center-2008 have completed in Chelyabinsk region. Kommersant Daily describes the exercises' scenario as reminding of the recent events in South Ossetia. The military, however, affirm that it was developed a year ago. The maneuvers are a second large-scale military exercizes at the training range. Last year, joint maneuvers of the SCO called Peace Mission-2007 were held there. That time, however, military of six countries were working on joint action against international terrorists. According the exercises' scenario, a fictitious state bordering Kazakhstan launches aggression aiming to annex regions rich with mineral resources. The adversary troops (the “South” force) intrudes into territory of Kazakhstan to a depth of up to 60 kilometers. Joint forces of Russia (the “Ural” force) and Kazakhstan (the “North” force) start reconnaissance. When adversary headquarters and concentrations of combat equipment are located, an air strike is performed on them by aviation and SP weapons. After adversary is disorganized and its combat equipment is partially destroyed, the joint armed forces perform a counterattack and force “South” to retreat. Over 500 units of military and special equipment were used in the maneuvers: T-72 tanks, armored combat vehicles, multiple launch rocket systems “Grad”, SP howitzers Gvozdika and Nona. Exercise air strikes were performed by Su-24 tactical bombers, Su-27 and MiG-31 fighter jets, as well as Mi-24 and Mi8 helicopters. Airborne infantry company and assault combat squadron of air assault forces (supported by three combat vehicles) were delivered by two Il76 military transport planes. About 2,000 military of Russia and about 700 of Kazakhstan took part in the exercises.

Source: http://www.regnum.ru/english/1050783.html

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Please read this very revealing report by a Turkish political analyst working at the well known The Washington Institute For Near East Policy.

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The Caucasus: Small War, Big Damage

Georgia's attempt to take South Ossetia has backfired. In a blitzkrieg, Russia drove the Georgian military completely out of South Ossetia. Moscow also made forays into Georgian territory. Many people in Turkey and across the transatlantic community have interpreted the war as a by-product of Georgia's aggressive attitude, and then propagated a neutral position toward the conflict. Whatever is the cause of the war, Russia's foray into Georgia cannot be dismissed as nuisance. The war has immense negative ramifications for the transatlantic community, including Turkey and the United States, as well as the European Union, or EU.

Russia's motives

The major impact of the war has been in the realm of energy and pipeline politics. Russia may not be a global superpower anymore, but it is certainly an "energy power." Moscow's strength lies in immense oil and natural gas reserves. Such that, even though Russia's population of 145 million is twice as big as the Turkish population, the Russian economy is smaller than its Turkish counterpart if the energy sector's contribution is subtracted. Energy sector's behemoth dominance in the Russian economy shapes Russia's foreign policy motives. Russian gas giant Gazprom's policies and Russian foreign policy serve each other's mutual interests. Russia takes advantage of exorbitant energy prices to increase its political and military power -- the arms industry is the second largest sector of the Russian economy after energy. Energy politics is key to Russia's military and political ascent especially in the former USSR. In order to grow further, Russia wants to achieve monopoly over the global distribution of oil and natural gas from the former USSR countries. This rationale seems to be the driving factor vision of Georgia. When the Cold War ended and the USSR was dissolved, the United States allied with Turkey to create a blue print to bring the newly explored oil and natural gas from the Caspian basin to the global markets. The shared U.S.-Turkish vision aimed to market Azeri, Kazakh, and Turkmen oil and gas to the world, not via Russia, but through the East-West corridor spanning the Caspian Sea and Turkey.

Georgia and Armenia

The U.S.-Turkish vision worked well in the pre-9/11 era when Russia was under the politically incompetent rule of Boris Yeltsin and Moscow was economically weak due to low oil and natural gas prices. As a first step along the East-West corridor, the U.S. and Turkey backed the building of Baku-Tiflis-Ceyhan oil and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipelines. The second phase of the U.S.-Turkish vision envisaged extending these pipelines; east to Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, and west to Europe. A big part of that vision was the Nabucco pipeline between Turkey and Austria, the poster child for EU's energy policy that would have for the first time allowed Europeans to buy Caspian gas without Russian intermediary. Russia's occupation of Georgia has dealt a blow to such plans. Georgia and Armenia are two countries along the East-West corridor that lie between the Caspian basin and Turkey. Since Turkey's border with Armenia is closed, this leaves Georgia as a key country along the corridor. Georgia is mutilated by Russia and unstable. It is hard to imagine today how any energy company would invest in extensions to the East-West corridor, along which Georgia has become the weak link. By occupying Georgia, Russia has exhausted the U.S-Turkish plans to boost the East-West corridor and make Turkey an entrepot of Caspian energy. Moscow has also preemptively blocked the EU's plans to buy energy from the Caspian basin without having to go through Russia.

Back in the USSR

A second transatlantic casualty of Russia's invasion of Georgia is the West's political influence in the former USSR. Since the 1990s, Turkey and the U.S. have managed to wield influence over countries in the former USSR, especially Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Ukraine, building military and political ties with these states. Now that Russia has taught Georgia a lesson about its pro-Western stance, Ukraine and Azerbaijan will think twice next time they have a chance to take cue from the United States or Turkey, respectively. Russia's foray into Georgia has demonstrated to the countries of the former USSR that Russia is the regional hegemon and that they better listen to it. As long as oil and natural gas prices remain high, Russia will project further political and military influence over the Caucuses and the Black Sea basin, and such influence will come at the expense of the transatlantic community. Russia's invasion of Georgia is a milestone that marks the dawn of a new era. A small war has indeed produced big results.

Source: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/t...6.php?CID=1176

[Yedtarts]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

"If the Russian long-distance planes that fly around the world need to land at some Venezuelan landing strip, they are welcome, we have no problems," he said on his weekly television show last week.

I like this Chavez guy!!!!

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

The integrity of Turkey or that of pan-turkism?! Azeris still claim that they are "two countries, but one nation and one soul" with the turks. During Suleyman Demirel's visit some years ago the speaker of the azeri parliament expressed the wish "to sit together in one and the same Parliament soon". Anyways, they are nervous and that shows nothing but vulnerability.

The comment by the FTAA about Turkey's "territorial integrity" has nothing to do with pan-Turkism, or Turkish-Azeri relations. The comment has to do with our political agenda regarding the Armenian Genocide, our Hai Dat. For Turkish nationalists, Armenian Genocide recognition equates to Armenian claims to eastern Turkey (Western Armenia). Some Turkish and Azeri circles are seriously concerned that Ankara is giving into political pressure by approaching Yerevan without first resolving various sensitive matters concerning the Armenian Genocide. Turks are also worried that Ankara is approaching this deal from a weak position, which goes right along with what I have been saying all along. Gul's visit to Armenia was a political victory for Armenia. This is also an opportunity for Armenia. Yerevan can potentially benefit from this unique yet very complex situation. Time will tell. I hope our politicians are up to the task. Prayer, in this case, would not hurt either.

[North Pole]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russian Prez Puts West On Notice

Medvedev Declares Russia A "Nation To Be Reckoned With"

(CBS/ AP) President Dmitry Medvedev declared Saturday that "Russia is a nation to be reckoned with" following its war with Georgia, again putting the West on notice that Moscow is prepared to use it military and economic might.

With a U.S. Navy ship unloading aid off Georgia's Black Sea coast within shooting distance of Russian troops, Medvedev's comments were another reminder that the Kremlin views last month's war as the start of a new era in Russian assertiveness.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, said "the truth is on our side" and likened the situation in the breakaway Georgian region of South Ossetia with Srebrenica - the Bosnian town that was the site of Europe's worst mass carnage since World War II.
In France, the European Union's 27 foreign ministers were reluctant to provoke Moscow, with French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner saying the EU did not plan to impose sanctions against Russia.

In the weeks since Russian forces routed the Georgian army and seized the breakaway Georgian region of South Ossetia, Russian officials have used bellicose language toward the West. Putin has suggested the United States was to blame for the war for helping the Georgian military rebuild.

At a meeting Saturday of the State Council, Medvedev said the world had changed since the beginning of fighting in Georgia last month.

"We have reached a moment of truth. It became a different world after Aug. 8," he said.

"Russia will never allow anyone to infringe upon the lives and dignity of its citizens. Russia is a nation to be reckoned with from now on," Medvedev told the council, a government consultative body of largely regional governors.

Medvedev criticized the United States and other Western nations, though not by name, for challenging Russia's intervention.

"Millions of people supported us, but we've heard no words of support and understanding from those who in the same circumstances pontificate about free elections and national dignity and the need to use force to punish an aggressor," he said.
U.S. Vice President xxxx Cheney, at an economic meeting Saturday in Italy, blasted Russian actions in the war as an "affront to civilized standards" and said Moscow has given "no satisfactory justification" for invading Georgia.

READ MORE -- http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/...n4422709.shtml

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Two interesting interviews; one by an ardent Russophobe, Zbigniew Brzezinski, the other an American patriot, Alex Jones.

Alex Jones on Russia Today: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmpcD...eature=related

Zbigniew Brzezinski interview: Russia - Georgia war: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MuBrw...eature=related

[skhara]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Zbigniew Brzezinski interview: Russia - Georgia war: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MuBrw...eature=related

I wish CNN would have let me question this man.

[Lucin]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

I agree Lucin, but it's a bit more than just foreign pressure at play here.

Foremost, what we Armenian desperately need to understand is that Gul's historic visit to Armenia was an Armenian VICTORY and not a defeat. Despite Yerevan's iron grip over Nagorno Karabagh, despite Yerevan not abandoning the Hai Dat, despite Yerevan's close strategic partnership with Moscow, the Turk swallowed his pride, ignored domestic complaints, ignored western complaints and disregarded Baku's objections and went to Yerevan with a stretched out hand. Whether he did this willingly or unwillingly does not matter, he did it. I know for sure that Gul never imagined he would have to do this. And, most probably, he is blaming Saakashvili for the difficult mess he is in because it was Tbilisi's historic blunder that created this situation in the Caucasus.

Again - thus far - this is an Armenian victory, let's see what Yerevan can do to benefit from this unique situation. Nevertheless, some in our community are treating this whole ordeal as if its another black page in our history. I tell you, sometimes the depth of our ignorance seems to be bottomless... Please closely read the materials I am posting in this thread without emotions, it will help to place the many geopolitical pieces together. And please don't pay attention to the ignorant/extremist ideologies currently being spread within our communities. I have been reading and hearing a lot of very-very stupid, almost mentally retarded, comments about Sergei Lavrov's official stance over Karabagh and about Yerevan inviting Gul to Armenia. Some people in our community, including so-called prominant/educated ones, are making this very complex/very pivotal geopolitical situation look like some primitive tribal warfare where one village attacks another.

Have no illusions, however, all this might indeed lead to the opening of borders between Armenia and Turkey; after all, that is what this is all about. Nevertheless, there are no indications that the current state of politics will lead to the abandonment of our Hai Dat, which is also indirectly connected to Turkey's territorial integrity, or that the status of Nagorno Karabagh will suffer.

I understand you dear. I really liked how pointed out this new (optimistic) perspective to the issue but I wonder if you'd still call it a victory for Armenia if the borders open?? At this stage, yes I agree with you; it is apparently a 'diplomatic' victory for us but in the long run, with borders opened- something which sounds very probable with Georgia being paralyzed these days- this diplomatic victory may turn into an 'economic' defeat for Armenia, for reasons that you know better... Don't you think so? In any case, the biggest victor here, seems to be Russia.

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

I wish CNN would have let me question this man.

Before you get to confront him, maybe I can help you. Why don't you practice on me. I have a good feel of what these people are all about. So, what would you start off by saying or asking?

Anyway, I am sure there is nothing you can tell these people to "put them in their place," or to help them "realize their mistakes", or to help them "see the truth"...It's all a matter of perspective. They are on one side of the political fence, we on another. They have one view of the world, we another. They have their set of explanations and excuses, we have ours. In the end, no one is right, no one is wrong. Simply put, we are their enemies/competitors, they are ours. It's all relative. Nonetheless, in my opinion, all this geopolitical mess we are currently experiencing should be quite familiar to us because all this has already happened in the past. I would also say that the mechanisms driving the current global crisis forward cannot be stopped, it is all meant to happen.

For us Armenians this clash between East and West should be nothing new. I'm not saying this symbolically or historically. My approach is beyond the realm of physical perception, its more spiritual and in a sense, esoteric. I don't even want to mention the striking similarities of the current crisis to that of the Tsarist empire's numerous conflicts against western Europe and the Ottoman Empire, the current struggle between Russia and the West is quite similar, strikingly similar, to the ancient world's centuries old struggle between Parthia/Persia and Rome/Byzantium. In essence, Russia today is the Persian empire of old and the West, without a doubt, is the Roman/Byzantine empire. When we begin to look past superficial differences between the current political players what I'm alluding to here will make more sense. The fundamental nature and energy of a particular entity remains the same even if its physical appearance changes. There is as we know an obvious observable cycle of life in nature, what I am alluding to here however is the invisible or spiritual cycle of life in humanity. The fundamental players, including particular individuals, driving these global conflicts are the same in nature and essence to their historic predecessors. History, as with humankind, does not progress in a linear fashion, it actually recycles itself in a circular fashion. So, in a real sense, we have been through this path before. And based on our past life (or lives), we as a nation, have always been close to the mighty Persian empire and its modern manifestation, the Russian nation.

Some call it our fortune, some call it our curse, I call it our destiny.