The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

[ashot24]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Armenia needs this to happen in Georgia but i got a feeling things are gona go down differently there.

I agree, Sakishvili will not leave power so easily. He is more likely to proclaim himself a dictator rather than just giving the power to someone else. So what I see, is that Georgia needs a Kyrgyz-like revolution, things have to change in Georgia...and sadly, the bad way is the only way you can get things done.

Now, that happening, as to what me respects, is unquestionable...the problem is when and how. People had already enough of him, and things became worse for Misha because of his recent joke in the Imedi channel about the Russian invasion, wow I mean...is there a word hard enough to condemn such a cruel thing, to scare your people deliberately?

Sakishvili will fall, but I fear it will be something hard to do for Georgia and her people.

[Haykakan]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Pretty funny how Shakasville has no place to turn to anymore.

WPS Agency, Russia
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
April 16, 2010 Friday


SAAKASHVILI MADE NUISANCE OF HIMSELF BUT FINAGLED MEETING WITH OBAMA

BYLINE: Sergei Strokan, Georgy Dvali


HIGHLIGHT: MIKHAIL SAAKASHVILI SAID IN WASHINGTON THAT RUSSIAN URANIUM
WAS SMUGGLED ACROSS GEORGIAN BORDERS; President Mikhail Saakashvili
went to Washington to try and revive ebbing interest in himself and
Georgia victimized by Russia.

An unplanned and fortunately brief meeting with Mikhail Saakashvili of
Georgia was forced on U.S. President Barack Obama during the Nuclear
Security Summit in Washington. Saakashvili did his honest best to
revive interest in himself and Georgia and announced that Tbilisi had
intercepted smuggled uranium, mostly Russian, on the borders.

The list of 12 foreign leaders Obama would meet tete-a-tete in the
course of the Nuclear Security Summit had been known well in advance.
Georgian Deputy Foreign Minister Nino Kalanadze had said that the
president of Georgia would only meet with Vice President Josef Biden
and some European leaders in Washington.

Leading American newspapers and TV networks immediately noticed that
Obama had decided it necessary to meet with presidents of Kazakhstan,
Ukraine, and Armenia but not with the Georgian leader. In fact,
Saakashvili himself pointed it out when in Washington. The Georgian
leader visited The Washington Post editorial office on Monday and told
it that Georgia was still angling for membership in NATO and pondering
some purchases of weapons from the United States.

In the long run, a brief and unplanned (at least by the hosts) meeting
between the presidents of Georgia and the United States did take
place. The White House later announced that Obama had been happy to
see his Georgian counterpart. Obama reassured the visitor of America's
support and praised Saakashvili for willingness to continue democratic
reforms.

Eager to develop the diplomatic breakthrough, Saakashvili announced at
the international forum in Washington that Georgian secret services
had circumvented eight attempts to smuggle uranium across the borders.
The Georgian leader alleged that the uranium was mostly Russian. He
said that the latest episode had occurred in March.

The Georgian Interior Ministry declined comment "in the interests of
investigation".

Source: Kommersant, April 15, 2010, p. 7

[Muhaha]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Notice the subtle yet significant differences in the reporting styles of Russia and America when it comes to the Armenian Genocide. When an official Russian source mentions an event relating to the Armenian Genocide, it is unmistakably presented as the "Armenian Genocide". However, when an American news source, including CIA funded propaganda outlets such as Radio Liberty (the Armenian division of which is run by "proud" Armenians from the Dashnaktsutyun) mentions anything about the Armenian Genocide, the term Genocide is almost always placed in quotation marks and the other side of the story is presented as well. Yet we still have fools that drop their pants and bend-over with hope every single year in Washington... And the excuses given by these proud American-Armenians about to why the American press chooses to undermine and/or ignore the Armenian Genocide is pathetic, to say the least.The excuse is always - America's "national interests."

Well, imagine the public outcry, the severe indignation, the out-pouring of raw anger by us Armenians had another important political player in the region that portrays itself as a defender of democracy and human rights and/or a friend of Armenians, had been working actively against our Hay Dat for their self-serving "interest"... Imagine the fury if Moscow was working against our recognition efforts... It seems that Washington is the only political entity on earth today we Armenians voluntarily and persistently make excuses for. When it come to Washington, or xxxs for that matter, we Armenians understand, we Armenian can wait, we Armenians are hopeful, we Armenians are grateful...

We Armenians are pathetic!

Last I checked, Moscow was trying very hard to move closer to Turkey and encourage Ankara to move away from the Atlantic alliance... Last I checked, Moscow considered Turkey an important regional player it wanted to have good relations with... Last I checked, Turkey controlled one of Russia's most vital trade routes, the Dardanelles... Last I checked, Moscow provided Turkey with over fifty percent of Turkey's energy needs... Last I checked, Turkey was one of Russia's biggest trading partners... Last I checked, tens of thousands of Russians were tanning themselves on Turkish beaches all along the Mediterranean... Moscow has just as many interests in Turkey, if not more, than Washington and Tel Aviv. So why isn't Moscow pathetically kissing Turkish asses like Washington and Tel Aviv do on a regular basis? And why isn't Ankara threatening Moscow on a regular basis?

Logic would dictate that Moscow has every reason in the "political interests" book to ignore and/or undermine the Armenian Genocide like Washington/Tel Aviv does. Since Russia has important interests and strategic ties with Ankara, why is it that the Russian Duma continues to recognize the Armenian Genocide? Why is it that Russia's official press continues to treat the Armenian Genocide as a historical fact? Why is it that Putin, Medvedev, Lavrov, Ivanov... and now, the Russian Patriarch Kirill have visited the Armenian Genocide memorial? The reality of the matter is Russians don't really have to do us Armenians any favors simply because Armenia exists today as a result of Russian presence in the Caucasus. But by not doing us Armenians any favors Moscow can actually have a freer hand in encouraging Ankara to move closer to Moscow; and through it all Armenia would still not have the option of breaking away from its total dependence on Moscow.

So, taking all these nuances into consideration, why does Moscow continue towing the Armenian line when it comes to a topic that has no real political value for it, despite clear advantages for it if it stops doing so? Is it perhaps because the Russian Federation sees Armenia as a natural partner, a natural ally that needs to be nurtured and protected, unlike Washington that sees everything as dollar signs and would even sell its mother to the highest bidder (of course none of this applies to Washington's relationship with Israel which is a symbiotic relationship, for the two cannot live without each other). I think our many Russophobic "nationalists" in America and elsewhere seriously need to think about this one.

Can any one of you imagine the orgasmic euphoria Armenians in America would have felt had a high ranking official from Washington... wait, strike that. Can any one of you imagine the orgasmic euphoria Armenians in America would have felt had virtually 'anybody' from Maryland visited Tsitsernakaberd? To think of all our limited resources and efforts being wasted by our idiots in America in a corrupt place like Washington is sicking. To tell you the truth, as far as I'm concerned, it is immensely more important for the Russian Federation to continue recognizing the Armenian Genocide than it is for Washington. Instead of wasting time writing letters to American politicians and begging them for favors, American-Armenians would do better if they wrote letters of appreciation to the Russian Duma.

Armenian

Who caaaaaaaaaaareesssssssssssssssss. Nothing happened for Armenia or Armenians when Russia recognized it, nothing happened when any of the European countries recognized it, and nothing will happen when/if America recognizes it. I agree we're pathetic, but it's not because we defend America's policy towards recognition, it's because we treat Recognition or Non-Recognition as an important issue to begin with.

[KanadaHye]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Who caaaaaaaaaaareesssssssssssssssss. Nothing happened for Armenia or Armenians when Russia recognized it, nothing happened when any of the European countries recognized it, and nothing will happen when/if America recognizes it. I agree we're pathetic, but it's not because we defend America's policy towards recognition, it's because we treat Recognition or Non-Recognition as an important issue to begin with.

I'll agree with the pathetic part. I would have to agree that recognition isn't important if it weren't for the many people who are fiercely against recognition. If it didn't matter, why is there so much lobbying against it when most learned people already know about the Armenian Genocide?

[Muhaha]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

I'll agree with the pathetic part. I would have to agree that recognition isn't important if it weren't for the many people who are fiercely against recognition. If it didn't matter, why is there so much lobbying against it when most learned people already know about the Armenian Genocide?

I'd say it's because the people that oppose us are just as ignorant. It's just a vicious circle of stupidity imo.

[Muhaha]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Turkey's ignorant for thinking American recognition is going to do anything to them and we're ignorant for thinking American recognition is going to do anything for us.

[Haykakan]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Coup in Kyrgyzstan, Drugs from Afghanistan, and the US

en.fondsk.ruÐ?rbis Terrarum
19.04.2010
Anatoly ALIFEROV

While the Kyrgyz interim government was searching for the bank
accounts of ousted President K. Bakiev, and Belorussian President A.
Lukashenko invited him to settle down in Belarus, Moscow bloggers
published a sensational finding: they unearthed evidence that the coup
in Kyrgyzstan was backed by the US and that the whole intrigue
revolves around the transit of drugs from Afghanistan.

On April 18, Oriental Review, an English-language blog based in
Russia, published a text titled «Kyrgyzstan Destined To Become Another
Narco-State?». It points to the facts that drug crops in Afghanistan
surged since the dispatch of the US and NATO forces to the country and
that the neighboring Kyrgyzstan became the key transit hub on the
route - known as the Great Heroine Way - via which drugs from
Afghanistan are delivered to Europe and Asia.

The author of the text wrote: `Most likely the illicit profits
proceeding from narco-trafficking were the main sources of spectacular
enrichment of Bakiev's clan during his presidency in 2005-2010. There
were numerous evidences that the very arrival of Kurmanbek Bakiev to
power in March 2005 as a result of `Tulip revolution' was financed and
supported by prosperous international narco-mafia'. The blogger
maintains that in 2010, just as in 2005, `the geostrategic interests
of the US and the international narco-mafia happily merged again... It
was only logical for the US establishment to use the services of
narco-barons to overthrow Bakiev, who demanded from the US more and
more pay-offs for his loyalty¦'. A similar view was expressed by
writer and commentator Alexander Prokhanov in the April 16 broadcast
of the Ekho Moskvy radio station: `The revolution in Kyrgyzstan was...
a revolution organized by the drug business. It replaced Akaev's
regime with Bakiev's one, and now Bakiev's regime ` with the regime of
the notorious Roza. Kyrgyzstan remains the key route of
drug-trafficking to Russia'.

Drug barons are extremely influential in Kyrgyzstan. There are
estimates suggesting that the areas used to cultivate poppy in the
republic are comparable in size to those in Afghanistan. This is just
one of the pertinent circumstances. Another is that Kyrgyzstan hosts
the Gansi Air Base operated by the US Air Force at the Manas airport
in Bishkek. The Base is an important transit point for the supply of
US forces in Afghanistan. The third pertinent circumstance is that
Kyrgyz human rights watch groups have stated a number of times that
the base also serves as a transit hub in a global drug trafficking
network. When one of such statements was made in September, 2009,
China's People's Daily cautiously expressed agreement with the view
held by Kyrgyz human rights activists ` it quoted experts as saying
that the Manas base in Kyrgyzstan could be used by the foreign
military to transit drugs from Afghanistan.

The Oriental Review blogger substantiated his claim concerning the
common interests of the US and the international drug mafia in the
case of the coup in Kyrgyzstan by pointing to the fact that remained
unnoticed so far but can actually be regarded as material evidence. On
April 7, Great Britain's The Daily Telegraph featured a set pictures
taken at the time of the recent bloody riots in Bishkek. One of them
shows an insurgent firing a Kalashnikov assault rifle near a
government building. A striking detail that can be discerned in the
picture is `the HWS (holographic weapon sight) attached to the AK gun
in the hands of an opposition fighter' which is `the product of the US
L-3 Communications EOTech Corporation, 500 series, retail price 600
USD each one (four average monthly salaries in Kyrgyzstan)'.

A Kyrgyz opposition supporter fires an automatic weapon near the main
government building during a protest against the government in
Bishkek. Picture: AFP/GETTY
Based at the University of Michigan, EOTech has been a supplier of
holographic weapon sights since 1996. According to the US
International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), exporting the weapon
requires licenses from the US Department of State and from the US
Department of Commerce. Upon being tested by the army, a number of
such sights were supplied to the forces in Afghanistan and a few more
` to the US police. The device has never officially exported to
Kyrgyzstan or Russia. Therefore, a machine gun with the US-made sight
could not be seized by an insurgent from the Kyrgyz special forces
during the riots. Thus, The Daily Telegraph picture provides evidence
that the coup in Kyrgyzstan was materially supported using a US
military base sited in Afghanistan or in Kyrgyzstan. Naturally, this
had to be a violation of the International Traffic in Arms Regulations
and of the US arms export regulations. Well, obviously the game was
worth it. Afghanistan's poppy output rose by a factor of 40 (!) - from
185 to 8,200 tons a year - over the first six years of the US
occupation. It is a safe bet that major developments are brewing at
the Afghan-Kyrgyz direction.

[Haykakan]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

RUSSIA AND TURKEY AGREE ON VISA-FREE TRAVEL

rt.com
12 May, 2010

Moscow and Ankara have signed an agreement to cancel the visa regime
between the two countries as President Dmitry Medvedev is on an
official visit to Turkey to sign strategic deals.

The agreement on mutual cancellation of visas for citizens of the
two states was signed on Wednesday. This step will open "absolutely
new opportunities for promoting tourism," Medvedev announced at
a joint media conference following his meeting with his Turkish
counterpart. Russia's leader dubbed the move a "truly historic event".

Abdullah Gul, for his part, said he is pleased over such a development
in the bilateral relations.

However, it will be the average Russian traveler who will be happy
to hear the news, as Turkey is one of the most popular destinations
for holidaymakers seeking sun, sea and good service for reasonable
prices. Last year alone, Medvedev reminded, over two million Russians
visited Turkey.

Up until now, the process of getting a visa to Turkey was rather simple
compared to that of getting to, for instance, the EU. Upon arrival
in the country, tourists can get permission to cross the border
by paying just $20 and getting a stamp in their passport. However,
after the agreement is signed and comes into force, tourists will be
able to get into the country for free and stay there for up to 30 days.

As for when exactly Russian and Turkish voyagers will be able to
finally enjoy visa-free trips, Medvedev said the moment will coincide
with the coming into force of another treaty - the readmission of
illegal immigrants.

"The enactment of a visa cancellation agreement with Turkey, this
process will be synchronized with the preparation and enactment
of a readmission agreement. This document is almost ready. I hope
that all the necessary procedures will be finalized and the document
[scrapping visas] will come into force in the near future," Medvedev
said as quoted by Interfax news agency.

Prior to his visit to Ankara, Medvedev was in Syria for talks with
President Bashar al-Asad. In addition to bilateral relations issues,
the two discussed the situation in the Middle East.

During the visit to neighboring Turkey, serious concerns
for the international community have once again come into the
spotlight. Israel's relations with Arabic countries - in particular
between the Palestinian National Authority and Tel Aviv - and Iranian
nuclear policies: these are the issues that have to be sorted out to
bring long-awaited stability to the region.

According to the Turkish President, Hamas "should be included
in the political process for the settlement of the Middle East
problem." Abdullah Gul is certain that both Russia and Turkey "should
draw all the parties concerned into the negotiating process in the
region."

As for Iran with its nuclear ambitions, Medvedev reiterated the
position that Moscow has been maintaining for a while: further efforts
should be made to solve the problem peacefully. At the same time,
Tehran should be urged to act constructively.

"Our position is well known and is similar to that of the Turkish
Republic," Medvedev said.

The president also repeated the position voiced earlier: the Middle
East should become an area free of nuclear weapons, as any other
development may lead to very grave consequences. Russia, Medvedev said,
will continue contacts with Iran and Israel for the denuclearization
of the region.

"We intend to use all our resources to continue contacts with Iran.

Naturally, we will talk on this issue with Israel and other countries
involved in the process," he stressed. "I hope we will be able to
find a way out of this very complicated situation," Medvedev added.

Finally, journalists asked for Medvedev to comment on an issue quite
sensitive to Turkey - its relations with Armenia. The stumbling block
is the Ottoman Empire genocide of the Armenians in 1915 which has been
recognized by over 20 countries including Russia, France, and Canada,
but is still denied by Turkey - the successor of the Ottoman Empire.

The Russian leader calls the topic rather complicated, but still,
he is optimistic.

"I hope both parties will be able to ultimately achieve all the
necessary decisions and restore their relations in full," he said. This
would "help stabilize the situation in our region, actively develop
economic relations, and, as a result, simply increase the living
standards in all countries of the region."

[Muhaha]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

I highlighted the paragraphs that mention Armenia but the whole article is interesting and should be read.
----------------------------------
Russia, Turkey: A Grand Energy Bargain?

Russian President Dmitri Medvedev paid a visit to Turkey on May 11-12, during which he signed agreements for $25 billion in projects — mostly in the energy sector — including a massive commitment to build a $20 billion, 4.8-gigawatt (GW) nuclear power plant. Medvedev’s visit is the culmination of months of negotiations between Ankara and Moscow over where the countries could agree to disagree on the future of Eurasian energy flows.

Turkey, straddling Europe, Asia and the Middle East, is looking to bolster its geopolitical standing by signing deals that would allow Turkey to transit energy from the East to the European markets. Russia, as the dominant natural gas supplier for Europe, wants to ensure Turkey does not give Europe too many options in circumventing Russian energy networks.

Since Russia and Turkey are both resurgent powers in the region, the energy issue can turn quite thorny at times, particularly as the West is leaning on Turkey to keep its distance from Moscow. But Russia and Turkey are not looking for an energy brawl at the moment. Tensions exist between these historic rivals, but the current geopolitical environment is pushing the two sides to work with — instead of against — each other.

Competing Over Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan has long been a pawn in Turkey’s negotiations with Russia. The country shares deep cultural and linguistic linkages to Turkey, and already transports roughly 9 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas per year for the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum pipeline, which circumvents Russia and carries natural gas from Azerbaijan’s offshore Shah Deniz fields through Georgia to Turkey for the European market. Phase II of Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz project is expected to come online in 2018 and produce 15 bcm per year, 12 bcm of which would be available for export. Turkey wants to secure as much of that remainder for export as possible so it can transit substantial amounts of natural gas through its territory for projects like the much-touted Nabucco pipeline, designed to provide Europe with a non-Russian-influenced natural gas alternative. Russia, which has a strategic interest in maintaining an energy stranglehold on Europe, naturally wants to ensure pipeline projects such as Nabucco remain pipe dreams.



Such an opportunity arose for Russia roughly two years ago when Turkey began pursuing a diplomatic rapprochement with Azerbaijan’s biggest foe, Armenia. Azerbaijan was deeply offended that Turkey would try to make nice with Armenia without first ensuring Azerbaijani demands were met on Nagorno-Karabakh, a disputed territory that Armenia seized from Azerbaijan in a war in the early 1990s. As Turkish-Azerbaijani relations deteriorated, Russia made sure it was there for Baku in its time of need, giving Moscow the leverage it was seeking over issues such as Shah Deniz II pricing agreements. So, whenever Turkey approached Baku for a pricing deal on Shah Deniz II, Russia would outbid the Turks and the Azerbaijanis would continue to hold out on a deal. At the same time, Russia used its clout over Armenia to ensure that Turkish-Armenian negotiations remained deadlocked.

In the days leading up to Medvedev’s visit to Turkey, however, signs of progress between Turkey and Azerbaijan over Shah Deniz II started coming to light. Azerbaijani Energy Minister Natik Aliyev announced May 5 that Turkey and Azerbaijan were coming close to a final pricing agreement to supply Turkey with a minimum of 7 bcm of natural gas from Shah Deniz II. According to a STRATFOR source, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has thus far made a verbal agreement with an advisor to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev for Turkey to pay around $220-270 per thousand cubic meters. This starting price is considerably lower than the Russians’ earlier offer of $300 per thousand cubic meters. It is unlikely to be a coincidence that these negotiations picked up just prior to Medvedev’s visit. If Baku was moving forward with Ankara on a Shah Deniz II deal, the Russians likely facilitated these negotiations.

Nabucco On The Back Burner

However, this assistance came at a price. Russia does not want Azerbaijan’s natural gas to go toward a pipeline project like Nabucco that directly violates Russian energy imperatives. That said, there are signs that Russia may be willing to let a bit of its energy stranglehold over Europe slip if, in return, it can more firmly entrench itself in Turkey, the crucial link to Europe’s energy diversification efforts. According to a STRATFOR source, Russia has given its consent for now to the Turkey-Azerbaijan natural gas deal on the condition that the massive Nabucco project be shelved.

The source claims Russia and Turkey have agreed for the time being that Turkey will focus its attention on another, smaller pipeline to carry the extra Azerbaijani natural gas: the Interconnection Turkey-Greece-Italy (ITGI) and Poseidon pipeline project. This pipeline would take Azerbaijani natural gas across Georgia and Turkey (through an existing Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum pipeline) into Greece, and from there into Italy through an underwater pipeline across the Ionian Sea.

The ITGI-Poseidon project would have a capacity of 11.8 bcm per year compared to Nabucco’s capacity goal of 31 bcm per year. This difference in market share makes ITGI-Poseidon a more acceptable compromise for the Russians. Moreover, there is potential down the road for Russia to link into this pipeline project through its ambitious South Stream project led by Russian natural gas giant Gazprom, which aims to deliver Russian energy supplies to Europe across the Black Sea.

The ITGI project — priced at roughly $507 million — would be far more cost effective than Nabucco, the total estimated cost of which is as high as $11 billion. The ITGI project is also already under way, with the Greece-Turkey connection having come online in early 2007. Under the European Economic Recovery Plan (EERP), the European Union has also pledged a grant of $126.9 million for the final section of the project, the Poseidon pipeline. It remains to be seen whether Turkey will be able to convince its European partners, now struggling with the Greek financial maelstrom, to put down more money to see through this project, as well as others such as Nabucco in the future. However, Turkey will be able to make a much more convincing argument for more funding if it can secure Azerbaijani natural gas to source these projects.

Azerbaijan’s Demands

Azerbaijan’s demands in this whole affair are quite simple. Baku wants a favorable price on its natural gas, but is also looking for guarantees from Ankara that the Turkish government will not pursue meaningful peace talks with Armenia without first addressing Azerbaijani concerns over Nagorno-Karabakh. Given that the Turkey-Armenia talks have been deadlocked since early spring, Turkey likely has the diplomatic bandwidth to offer such guarantees in the interest of securing this natural gas deal and mending its relationship with Azerbaijan.

Unprecedented Deal-Making?

Russia had to have a strategic purpose for it to start easing its grip on the Shah Deniz II negotiations between Turkey and Azerbaijan. That strategic purpose may have manifested itself during Medvedev’s May 12 visit to Turkey. During that visit, two significant energy deals were signed that signaled Russian-Turkish energy integration on an unprecedented scale.

The first deal was for the construction of Turkey’s first nuclear power plant by a Russian-led consortium led by Atomstroyexport and Inter RAO. The power plant will have four reactors with a total capacity 4.8 GW and cost roughly $20 billion. The scale of this project cannot be emphasized enough. If this nuclear power plant is built, Turkey will be home to one of the largest nuclear energy installations in the world. Russia has not even built a nuclear power plant on this scale for itself, and does not have a reputation for providing the necessary funding to bring such projects into realization.

STRATFOR sources, however, claim many of the details of the deal have been worked out. Russia will have a controlling stake in the plant and sell the rest (up to 49 percent) to other investors, most likely Turkish firms such as AKSA, which has strong political and family ties to Erdogan and the ruling Justice and Development Party. The plant will likely be built in two stages; two reactors built, followed by the second two. The construction for the power plant near Turkey’s southern Mediterranean coastal town of Akkuyu is expected to take seven years, and can only begin after both parliaments ratify the agreement.

Instead of having Turkey pay a large amount of money up front, Turkish electricity firm TEDAS has signed an agreement to buy electricity from the plant for a minimum of 15 years, allowing Turkey to pay for the construction in installments once the plant becomes operational. Russia is expected to use this 15-year guarantee to secure loans for the project. Turkey will also have to rely on Russia for maintenance and the technological components for the plant, giving Moscow the long-term leverage it has been seeking in the Turkish energy sector. Still, $20 billion is an enormous sum, and STRATFOR remains deeply skeptical as to whether Russia will indeed follow through with its financial commitment to get this project off the ground. If it does, this project would signify a sea change in Russian investment behavior. It would also raise questions as to where else Russia could put its money in pursuit of its strategic energy goals.

Another agreement was signed for Russia to supply a pipeline that would pump Russian oil from the Black Sea port of Samsun in northern Turkey to the Ceyhan oil terminal in southern Turkey on the Mediterranean coast. Turkish firm Calik Energy (which has close ties to the AKP government) and Italian firm ENI (which has close ties to Russian energy giant Gazprom) are building the pipeline, which will have a capacity of between 1.2 million and 1.4 million barrels per day. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin said the Samsun-Ceyhan deal would cost $3 billion, and STRATFOR sources claim Calik Energy will be responsible for financing most of the deal. The purpose of this north-south pipeline is to alleviate the heavy congestion of oil tankers traveling through the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits to travel between the Black and Mediterranean seas, an issue Turkey and international energy firms have been grappling with for some time. The main purpose of the pipeline will be to decrease traffic of the larger 350,000-400,000-ton tankers and free up the straits for the 150,000-ton tankers. The economic viability of this pipeline has long been in question, however, given that transit through the Bosporus and Dardanelles is free by law. It thus remains to be seen what economic incentives will be given for tankers to bring oil to Samsun port to be transported through the Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline. Turkey already imports more than 60 percent of its energy supplies from Russia, and that energy dependence will deepen if this pipeline becomes operational.

Nothing Firm Yet

STRATFOR will thus be closely watching the Turkish-Russian nuclear power and Samsun-Ceyhan agreements, as well as whether Turkey and Azerbaijan will strike a deal over Shah Deniz II in the coming days, as officials on both sides have been claiming. Any of these deals would only be sealed under a broader understanding between Moscow and Ankara. Yet each of these deals also comes with substantial caveats. In addition to the economic feasibility issues attached to the nuclear power plant and Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline deals, a potential Shah Deniz II deal would likely contain a number of loopholes. For example, Turkey can assure Russia right now that the extra natural gas it receives from Azerbaijan will not go toward Nabucco, and then divert the natural gas toward whatever project it chooses down the line. By the same token, Russia can facilitate negotiations between Turkey and Azerbaijan over Shah Deniz II right now to secure the energy deals it wants with Turkey on nuclear power and natural gas supplies, but can also use its influence with Azerbaijan to scuttle the Shah Deniz II deal between Ankara and Baku at a later point in time. Nothing is set in stone in this flurry of pipeline politics, but for now, Russia and Turkey appear to be working toward a mutual energy understanding.

http://blogs.forbes.com/energysource/2010/05/14/russia-turkey-a-grand-energy-bargain/

[Haykakan]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Thanks for the article Muhaha. If this article is indeed true then Armenia got the lesser deal from the win-win scenerio it was in. Passing those lines through Hayastan would have been the prefered deal but this scenerio also has a positive aspect to it. Having played its cards now Russia is left with fewer cards to play in this game. Sure the energy projects like the nuclear plant etc... bolster Russian presence in the region but now it has very few other ways to strongarm the turcks (azery or turcky) other then through Armenia. So how you say can Armenia possibly be used to strongarm more powerfull states? Well the answer is that all the pipelines to turckey pass close to Armenia thus should the turcks and azeris get too demanding then another war may break out with Armenia destroying the sections of pipelines close to its borders. We may see russia significantly bolstering Armenias militery strength now to make sure such a threat is a real one. Unfortunetly this scenerio may involve us in another war but atleast we will be backed by the big bear if it does happen. It is rather depressing how foreighn policy of Armenia is decided by the big players vs its own people but that is life for now.