The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

[skhara]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Yep, Armenia is very nicely bypassed. I hope they find some uranium.

[Azad]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Yep, Armenia is very nicely bypassed. I hope they find some uranium.

It is not. Who needs the welfare check for having a pipeline that goes through your country so fat azz "Marge" can drive her SUV? Who did become rich by being a subservient?
This is not an accurate map where is the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan?
Why do you think the Artsakh war was for? The shortest distance for "Baku-Armenia-Ceyhan" though luck Russia did not allow it. Why do you think "Nato" is giving Kosovo to the "turks"? If it wasn't for Putin the pipeline would have got through our vor.

[skhara]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

This is not an accurate map where is the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan?

It's there, but shown as proposed. This map must be outdated.

[skhara]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Does Georgia believe that Washington will come to their rescue? Russia has about a 1001 ways bury them without ever firing a shot in their direction.

Unfortunately, what you link was also a problem for Armenia, but perhaps the Armenian side knew that this was going to happen and Russia was planning on repairing the pipeline before Armenia's reserves started to become threatened.

Edit:
Ok your post is now bellow mine.

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

It's there, but shown as proposed. This map must be outdated.

The map in question is at least couple of years old. I posted it because it clearly reveals just how complex the network of gas/oil distribution in the Caspian Sea region has become. We are talking essentially billions of USD flowing out of those pipes every year. And notice that there are only three primary outlets: Mediterranean Sea/Black Sea via Turkey and the Caucasus; Western Europe via the Russian Federation and the Persian Gulf/Indian Ocean via Iran. So, all this wealth, all this power, all this politicking, is concentrated and funneled through a small number of channels. And the primary sources of the oil/gas wealth in question is controlled directly and indirectly by the Russian Federation - with the exception of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.

And it is essentially due to projects like this Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline that Baku and Tbilis are finding themselves in hot water with Russia. So, I have to somewhat agree with Levon (Azad) regarding oil/gas being more of a liability than an asset. I may be wrong, but I don't even think that the pipeline in question is operating at full capacity. Nonetheless, as a result of such western projects the region, the Russian Federation has been tying very hard to re-establish its influence within the Trans-Caucasus. As a result, Georgia has been within Moscow's sights for a long while now. Azerbaijan's great western ambitions have also suffered serious setbacks and Baku today finds itself at Moscow's mercy. The landlocked Republic of Armenia, Russia's closest strategic partner in the region, has not been spared rough handling by Moscow either. Due to Armenia's attempt at trying to establish close relations with the West, Moscow has put immense economic pressure on Yerevan.

It's obvious that Moscow is not happy with what the West has been attempting in the region. As a result, Moscow has resorted to extreme measures in order to ensure that the republics of the Trans-Caucasus and Central Asia remain dependent on Moscow. Within the Trans-Caucasus, Armenia is made dependent via landlocked Armenia's hostility with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Azerbaijan is made dependent by Russia controlling the distribution of the region's oil/gas and via the Nagorno Karabagh issue. And Georgia is made dependent via Moscow's support for Ossetia and Abkhazia.



Obviously, the shortest route of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline would have been through the Republic of Armenia. The pipeline in question was made to avoid the Armenian Republic intentionally. We are essentially being punished by Washington DC for having Russian forces stationed within Armenia, having good relations with Iran, not giving back Armenian lands we liberated from Azerbaijan and pursuing Armenian Genocide recognition against Turkey. Thus, not hosting the pipeline was our punishment for not going along with the Neocon cabal in Washington DC.

In reality, however, without Russia's tolerance, the pipeline in question is worthless, for it could be destroyed within a matter of minutes. Nonetheless, it's a pity that our fledgling republic is stuck in the middle of all this geopolitical mess. A quick glance at the maps reveal just how paranoid they are of our landlocked republic. They spent millions of extra dollars by diverting the pipeline hundreds of kilometers off-course just to avoid going through Armenian territory. What's more, certain sections of the pipeline seem to be placed below ground. They claim they have done this due to the cold winter temperatures in the region. Some say they have done this due to fear of sabotage. Below ground or not, when the time comes it will be very easy to lay waste to this multi-billion dollar project.

If you remember, some years ago Washington DC tried very hard to convince Armenia to give up its strategic southern border with Iran so that they could pass this pipeline through it, obviously the short route. In return for Armenia's southern border, it was rumored that Armenia was told it could keep Nagorno Karabagh. In other words, instead of simply passing the pipeline through Armenia, they wanted Armenia to commit voluntary suicide by detaching itself from a vital strategic partner - for a vague promise by career politicians in Washington DC. Needless to say, Armenians worldwide told them to go and f*** themselves. These low lives in Washington DC today are utterly evil and the 'nerve' they have is breathtaking.

And let's remember what can happen if they piss us off: http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/eu...gas/index.html

Does Georgia believe that Washington will come to their rescue? Russia has about a 1001 ways bury them without ever firing a shot in their direction.

That is the strange part. All of the actions Tbilisi has taken for the past several years strongly suggests that it thinks it will stand up to Moscow with US/NATO help. Even an imbecile would realize that NATO and the USA are powerless in the region if and when Moscow decides it will have to resort to armed intervention. Just look at the current military situation the US armed forces finds itself in worldwide. Who in their right mind would think that NATO will rush to the assistance of Georgians once Russia begins sending in their tanks? Incidentally, this also applies to the idiots in Poland and the Check Republic. What are they thinking? Why piss-off a massive nuclear powered nation on your eastern border, a nation that also strongly impacts the very lifeline of western economy? Sooner or later, Moscow will make them pay, and they will pay dearly. And Moscow doesn't even have to fire a single shot, its power today is in controlling the oil/gas flow to the West.

Unfortunately, what you link was also a problem for Armenia, but perhaps the Armenian side knew that this was going to happen and Russia was planning on repairing the pipeline before Armenia's reserves started to become threatened.

At the time of the explosion in question, it was reported that the Armenian Republic had sufficient reserves to last them through the crisis. I have a feeling they knew and they prepared. However, regardless, stuff like this don't make life easy for Armenians. Not only do we suffer direct hostility from Ankara, Baku and Tbilisi, we also suffer the consequences of what Moscow and Washington DC do in the region. We cannot expect to have stable prosperous nation as long as our republic in landlocked.

We desperately need to develop a national strategy that seeks to work towards gaining a direct access to the outside world. This has to be an obsession for us Armenians. Without breaking out of our landlocked status we will always be at the mercy of others. Sadly however, our obsessions lie elsewhere, most Armos today are more concerned about making Turks say sorry...

[Merv]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

The map in question is at least couple of years old. I posted it because it clearly reveals just how complex the network of gas/oil distribution in the Caspian Sea region has become. We are talking essentially billions of USD flowing out of those pipes every year. And notice that there are only three primary outlets: Mediterranean Sea/Black Sea via Turkey and the Caucasus; Western Europe via the Russian Federation and the Persian Gulf/Indian Ocean via Iran. So, all this wealth, all this power, all this politicking, is concentrated and funneled through a small number of channels. And the primary sources of the oil/gas wealth in question is controlled directly and indirectly by the Russian Federation - with the exception of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.

And it is essentially due to projects like this Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline that Baku and Tbilis are finding themselves in hot water with Russia. So, I have to somewhat agree with Levon (Azad) regarding oil/gas being more of a liability than an asset. I may be wrong, but I don't even think that the pipeline in question is operating at full capacity. Nonetheless, as a result of such western projects the region, the Russian Federation has been tying very hard to re-establish its influence within the Trans-Caucasus. As a result, Georgia has been within Moscow's sights for a long while now. Azerbaijan's great western ambitions have also suffered serious setbacks and Baku today finds itself at Moscow's mercy. The landlocked Republic of Armenia, Russia's closest strategic partner in the region, has not been spared rough handling by Moscow either. Due to Armenia's attempt at trying to establish close relations with the West, Moscow has put immense economic pressure on Yerevan.

It's obvious that Moscow is not happy with what the West has been attempting in the region. As a result, Moscow has resorted to extreme measures in order to ensure that the republics of the Trans-Caucasus and Central Asia remain dependent on Moscow. Within the Trans-Caucasus, Armenia is made dependent via landlocked Armenia's hostility with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Azerbaijan is made dependent by Russia controlling the distribution of the region's oil/gas and via the Nagorno Karabagh issue. And Georgia is made dependent via Moscow's support for Ossetia and Abkhazia.



Obviously, the shortest route of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline would have been through the Republic of Armenia. The pipeline in question was made to avoid the Armenian Republic intentionally. We are essentially being punished by Washington DC for having Russian forces stationed within Armenia, having good relations with Iran, not giving back Armenian lands we liberated from Azerbaijan and pursuing Armenian Genocide recognition against Turkey. Thus, not hosting the pipeline was our punishment for not going along with the Neocon cabal in Washington DC.

In reality, however, without Russia's tolerance, the pipeline in question is worthless, for it could be destroyed within a matter of minutes. Nonetheless, it's a pity that our fledgling republic is stuck in the middle of all this geopolitical mess. A quick glance at the maps reveal just how paranoid they are of our landlocked republic. They spent millions of extra dollars by diverting the pipeline hundreds of kilometers off-course just to avoid going through Armenian territory. What's more, certain sections of the pipeline seem to be placed below ground. They claim they have done this due to the cold winter temperatures in the region. Some say they have done this due to fear of sabotage. Below ground or not, when the time comes it will be very easy to lay waste to this multi-billion dollar project.

If you remember, some years ago Washington DC tried very hard to convince Armenia to give up its strategic southern border with Iran so that they could pass this pipeline through it, obviously the short route. In return for Armenia's southern border, it was rumored that Armenia was told it could keep Nagorno Karabagh. In other words, instead of simply passing the pipeline through Armenia, they wanted Armenia to commit voluntary suicide by detaching itself from a vital strategic partner - for a vague promise by career politicians in Washington DC. Needless to say, Armenians worldwide told them to go and f*** themselves. These low lives in Washington DC today are utterly evil and the 'nerve' they have is breathtaking.

And let's remember what can happen if they piss us off: http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/eu...gas/index.html



That is the strange part. All of the actions Tbilisi has taken for the past several years strongly suggests that it thinks it will stand up to Moscow with US/NATO help. Even an imbecile would realize that NATO and the USA are powerless in the region if and when Moscow decides it will have to resort to armed intervention. Just look at the current military situation the US armed forces finds itself in worldwide. Who in their right mind would think that NATO will rush to the assistance of Georgians once Russia begins sending in their tanks? Incidentally, this also applies to the idiots in Poland and the Check Republic. What are they thinking? Why piss-off a massive nuclear powered nation on your eastern border, a nation that also strongly impacts the very lifeline of western economy? Sooner or later, Moscow will make them pay, and they will pay dearly. And Moscow doesn't even have to fire a single shot, its power today is in controlling the oil/gas flow to the West.



At the time of the explosion in question, it was reported that the Armenian Republic had sufficient reserves to last them through the crisis. I have a feeling they knew and they prepared. However, regardless, stuff like this don't make life easy for Armenians. Not only do we suffer direct hostility from Ankara, Baku and Tbilisi, we also suffer the consequences of what Moscow and Washington DC do in the region. We cannot expect to have stable prosperous nation as long as our republic in landlocked.

We desperately need to develop a national strategy that seeks to work towards gaining a direct access to the outside world. This has to be an obsession for us Armenians. Without breaking out of our landlocked status we will always be at the mercy of others. Sadly however, our obsessions lie elsewhere, most Armos today are more concerned about making Turks say sorry...

Very interesting analysis. But how, exactly, do you propose getting to the Black Sea? Either it will be at the expense of Georgia or of Turkey. In Georgia I can only see linking up Javakheti with Adjara and pushing it through that way. If, say, a slice of eastern Turkey is taken, do you seriously think that is a viable solution? Turkey's military would crush Armenia and not only that, what use is it? Turkey will shut down the Bosporus and Dardanelles anyway.

The only way Turkey will be neutralized in both Europe and Central Asia is if a corridor is cut connecting Armenia (and indirectly Iran) to the Black Sea while Greece takes back the Bosporus and Dardanelles. And that will never happen, except perhaps in some horrific world war.

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

I don't have a solution to such a complex and pressing problem. Such issues have to be worked out over time by our politicians and diplomats. Nonetheless, I wish more Armenians would begin thinking more in these geostrategic terms. Potentially, in the future, there may be a chance for us to gain an access to the Black Sea through Georgia or through Turkey. However, such a event is contingent upon there being a major geopolitical calamity in the region and the hope that the Armenian Republic comes out of it in one piece. Let's not forget that Georgian nationhood is currently unstable, and more it pushes Moscow the worst it will be for them. And eastern Anatolia is quite fragile as well. Nevertheless, such a drastic move by Armenia will most probably need the green light from Moscow, and to a lesser extent Tehran. And I am not convinced Moscow will give us the green light because Moscow is happy with Armenia being fully dependent upon it. What ever the case may be, I also realize that we can't directly force these types of issues. I just hope that if an when such an opportunity arises we as a people won't be asleep.

Very interesting analysis. But how, exactly, do you propose getting to the Black Sea? Either it will be at the expense of Georgia or of Turkey. In Georgia I can only see linking up Javakheti with Adjara and pushing it through that way. If, say, a slice of eastern Turkey is taken, do you seriously think that is a viable solution? Turkey's military would crush Armenia and not only that, what use is it? Turkey will shut down the Bosporus and Dardanelles anyway. The only way Turkey will be neutralized in both Europe and Central Asia is if a corridor is cut connecting Armenia (and indirectly Iran) to the Black Sea while Greece takes back the Bosporus and Dardanelles. And that will never happen, except perhaps in some horrific world war.

[Merv]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

I don't have a solution to such a complex and pressing problem. Such issues have to be worked out over time by our politicians and diplomats. Nonetheless, I wish more Armenians would begin thinking more in these geostrategic terms. Potentially, in the future, there may be a chance for us to gain an access to the Black Sea through Georgia or through Turkey. However, such a event is contingent upon there being a major geopolitical calamity in the region and the hope that the Armenian Republic comes out of it in one piece. Let's not forget that Georgian nationhood is currently unstable, and more it pushes Moscow the worst it will be for them. And eastern Anatolia is quite fragile as well. Nevertheless, such a drastic move by Armenia will most probably need the green light from Moscow, and to a lesser extent Tehran. And I am not convinced Moscow will give us the green light because Moscow is happy with Armenia being fully dependent upon it. What ever the case may be, I also realize that we can't directly force these types of issues. I just hope that if an when such an opportunity arises we as a people won't be asleep.

I don't think you need worry on that count. I am sure there are plenty of people looking at things in that way in Armenia, including in the government. Everyone has a "master plan" about what *could* happen in light of a catastrophe (i.e. massive international war). The ghosts of WWI, WWII, and the wars of previous centuries are not yet dead.

[TomServo]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

eastern Anatolia

I don't like this term one bit.

[Azad]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

I also realize that we can't directly force these types of issues.

Why can't we? We Armenians have always played the passive role and the waiting game. There are plenty of proxy roles that could be forced to be played. We have the two major powers of the region (Russia, Iran) that are using us as a stepping stone in a hostile environment that is being manipulated by "Western banking powers". Armenia can very successfully play a similar role by getting its hand on the dirty side. Can't always survive being honest when you are surrounded by wolfs. 40 million kurds against 60 million turks I can think of many equations to keep them two busy for many years. We are small entity and in a comfortable place for now, since all of our neighbors are threatened by other entities. Watch out when the US will retrieve to its shores. The most important equation that should happen is a conflict with turks and kurds a MAJOR conflict where the US has to openly backup the kurds, unfortunately the Iranian equation is holding this ideal conflict. Let us see if the Genocide Bill will trigger this conflict or is it yet another bribery of Washington towards the turks? Not if something happens to facilitated that trigger!!!