The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

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Venezuela Building Military Capacity with Russian Help



The Power and Interest Report (PINR), an independent organization that provides conflict analysis services, has published a new paper on the continued acquisition of military arms by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. The paper, published October 25, was authored by W. Alejandro Sanchez and is titled "Venezuela Continues to Purchase Russian Weapons."

According to the paper, President Chavez recently agreed to buy five submarines from Russia in an arms purchase deal that adds to the huge arsenal already procured by Venezuela. The submarines are reported to have the ability to fire torpedoes, lay mines, and shoot surface-to-air missiles. PINR says the purchases are part of a move to strengthen Venezuela's military might in its region of influence.

Venezuela and Russia have been in partnership for military arms sales for some time now, with previous agreements for the acquisition of jet fighter planes, small arms weapons, and military helicopters. There have also been reports, PINR says, that Russia is planning to open arms factories in the South American nation to produce weapons and ammunition for Venezuela. The justification provided by President Chavez for Venezuela's arms build-up is that a strong military force is necessary to counter the ambitions of the United States in the region.

The new PINR paper argues that Venezuela is not just trying to strengthen its position in the region, but is in fact on a quest to shift the balance of power in the area in its favor. PINR says that while the arms build-up does not endanger the United States, a powerful Venezuelan military armed with advanced Russian weapons could cause threatening powers to hesitate before taking action against Chavez's government. The arms purchased do, however, create a problem for neighboring countries, particularly Columbia, that have been in conflict with Venezuela before, the paper notes.

Additionally, PINR says, there is concern about the development of a competition for arms in South America, with other nations seeking to boost their military power as a counterweight to Venezuela's growing military strength. Chile and Peru, as well as Brazil, are noted to have joined in the acquisition of new and improved military hardware. Particularly worrisome for the United States is Venezuela's continued slide toward authoritarian rule, sometimes a dangerous course for a country armed with modern weaponry and a strong military.

In closing, the paper says, Chavez is working to better relations with Russia through the purchase of Russian weapons and military equipment. The result, according to PINR, is that Venezuela is increasingly becoming the country to be reckoned with in Latin America and the Caribbean, confronting U.S. interests in the region.

Source: http://www.associatedcontent.com/art..._capacity.html

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Russia, China favour bigger global role for India



India, Russia and China Wednesday made a strong pitch for UN reforms and closer cooperation on pressing global issues like terrorism to create a multi-polar world as the trilateral meeting of their foreign ministers concluded in the Chinese city of Harbin. Underlining the need to reform the United Nations to reflect contemporary realities, Russia and China strongly backed a bigger role for India on the international stage. 'The foreign ministers of China and Russia reiterated that their countries attach importance to the status of India in international affairs, and understand and support India's aspirations to play a greater role in the United Nations,' a joint communique issued at the end of the talks said. Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee held talks with his counterparts, Yang Jiechi of China, the host of the meeting, and Sergei Lavrov of Russia to enhance economic cooperation and closer coordination on global issues.

In a message aimed at the US, the three countries stressed that their cooperation was not directed against any country even as they warned against double standards in the fight against global terrorism in all forms and manifestations. 'They reaffirmed that trilateral cooperation is not targeted against any other country or organization and is intended to promote international harmony and mutual understanding and seeks to broaden common ground amidst divergent interests,' the communique said. 'They further emphasized that they would continue to promote democratisation of international relations and evolution of a more just and rational international order,' it said.

Stressing on multilateralism and collective action on global issues like terrorism and climate change, the three countries called for strengthening the role of the UN and improving its efficiency. 'Collection action within the framework of the UN Global Counter Terrorism Strategy and under the central and coordinating role of the UN and its Security Council should be strengthened. Double standards should not be adopted,' the communique said. The three countries pushed for a speedy finalisation of the draft UN Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism and agreed to coordinate their action against all factors that feed international terrorism, including its financing, drug trafficking and trans-national organized crime.

'We believe that our trilateral dialogue mechanism improves mutual understanding and trust with regard to these common challenges and contributes to strengthening peace, security and stability in our region and the world,' Mukherjee said in his opening remarks at a joint press interaction with his counterparts from Russia and China. India will host a trilateral business forum Dec 15, which will focus on sectors of common business interest, Mukherjee announced. 'Through this trilateral meeting, we have been able to cooperate closely to create a better international environment and a better environment in our own neighbourhood,' Yang said at a luncheon in honour of his Indian and Russian counterparts in the northeast Chinese city.

The three-way meeting was the third stand-alone trilateral Foreign Ministers' meeting after the first one in Vladivostok on June 2, 2005 and the second in New Delhi on Feb 14, 2007. Enhanced cooperation in areas such as agriculture, disaster mitigation and public health was also discussed. A trilateral seminar on emerging geo-strategic trends with the participation of officials and scholars from the three countries will also be held in India early next year. The first summit meeting among the leaders of India, Russia and China took place on July 17, 2006 in St Petersburg on the sidelines of the meetings of the G-8 and its outreach countries.

Source: http://news.monstersandcritics.com/i...role_for_India

India, Russia, China Want a 'Multi-Polar' World

India joined China and Russia Wednesday in calling for a "more just and rational" world order but, in a now familiar refrain, also insisted that their trilateral cooperation was not intended to target "any other country." A meeting in northern China of the three countries' foreign ministers ended with a joint communique containing veiled references to U.S. domination of international affairs. India's Pranab Mukherjee, China's Yang Jiechi and Sergei Lavrov of Russia "emphasized that they would continue to promote democratization of international relations and evolution of a more just and rational international order," said the statement, released by China's official Xinhua news agency.

They said three-way ties would be "beneficial to the process of global multi-polarity" -- an indirect reference to the post-Cold War "uni-polar" system. In the years since NATO's war in the Balkans and increasingly since 9/11, Russia and China in particular have voiced unease about American "hegemony." Among other things, they both strongly oppose U.S. ballistic missile defense initiatives, an issue that came up at a press conference after the three-way meeting. The Pentagon argues for the need to provide protection against potential missile attack from terrorists or rogue states like Iran and North Korea, but Russia and China suspect that anti-missile shields would undermine their missile-based nuclear deterrents.

Moscow's objections to plans to deploy an Iran-focused BMD shield in Central Europe are at the heart of current tensions in U.S.-Russia relations. Lavrov on Wednesday repeated Russia's warning that it would take countermeasures if the plan goes ahead (President Vladimir Putin was threatened to abandon arms treaties and to aim missiles at Europe.) For its part, China is uneasy about U.S.-Japanese missile defense cooperation which -- although focused on the North Korean threat -- Beijing worries could become a factor in the event of any future armed conflict over Taiwan. "Not only will the missile defense program fail to meet the security concerns of the related country, but also it may possibly damage the world's strategic balance and stability," Yang said at the press conference.

In response to a question, Mukherjee said that India has no plans to cooperate with U.S. missile defense programs. On another topic of current international concern -- Burma's violent suppression of pro-democracy protests -- the three foreign ministers took a shared position at odds with Washington, rejecting sanctions against the military junta. The three countries have strong economic and other ties with Burma, and the U.S. has urged China and India in particular to use their influence to steer Rangoon towards change.

China and Russia, which as permanent members of the U.N. Security Council wield veto power, have blocked resolutions condemning the junta, objecting to what they see as outside interference in Burma's internal affairs. They did, however, sign on earlier this month to a council statement critical of the clampdown. Yang and Lavrov both said Wednesday that sanctions would make the situation in Burma worse, and Mukherjee agreed that "there should not be any sanctions at this stage."

'Opposing hegemony'

Although India and the Soviet Union were allies during the Cold War, the two countries' bilateral relations with China were for decades marred by border disputes, ideological differences and numerous other issues. After the Soviet Union collapsed, then-Russian prime minister Yevgeny Primakov during the late 1990s began pushing the concept of a Russia-India-China "strategic triangle."

Three-way meetings initially involving scholars and officials began in 2001. A statement issued at the first meeting, in Moscow, noted that the three had "common or similar positions" on issues, including "democratization of international relations, formation of a multi-polar world, opposing hegemony [and] construction of a fair and rational new international order." Foreign ministers from the three nations have met seven times since 2002. India also has been invited to observe summits and joint military exercises of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a six-country Asian grouping dominated by Russia and China. But in recent years, the U.S. also has moved to strengthen military, economic and diplomatic ties with India

Policy makers in the U.S. and India have described a landmark civilian nuclear cooperation deal between the two large democracies as a significant and strategic initiative. The agreement now is in grave trouble, however, as a result of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's failure to get communist allies' approval in parliament. Some Indian analysts argue that their country cannot afford to develop strategic ties with the U.S. to the exclusion of other important countries in its neighborhood. "India cannot afford to let go of its strategic autonomy," Gen. V.P. Malik, a former top Indian army general and now president of the Observer Research Foundation's Institute of Security Studies in New Delhi wrote this week.

"In the present world order, a nation of India's stature and potential can and should play an independent role and cooperate or compete on issues with other nations, depending upon its national interests," he said. Dr. Subhash Kapila, a strategic affairs analyst with the India-based South Asia Analysis Group, also stressed India's need for "strategic autonomy."

He noted that the evolving Indo-U.S. partnership was under "intense scrutiny" from China and Russia, and said India cannot afford to discount those power centers. India has been campaigning for several years for a permanent seat on an expanded U.N. Security Council. Wednesday's joint statement brought support from the Chinese and Russian foreign ministers, who said "their countries attach importance to the status of India in international affairs and understand and support India's aspirations to play a greater role in the United Nations."

Source: http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewForeignBu...20071025a.html

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Russia launches ICBM RS-18 from Baikonur in Kazakhstan



Russia's Strategic Missile Forces (SMF) have successfully launched an intercontinental ballistic missile RS-18 (SS-19 Stiletto) from the Baikonur space center in Kazakhstan, an SMF spokesman said. Russia's SMF regularly launch missiles to test their performance characteristics and decide whether they can remain in service. "The launch of the ICBM RS-18 was successfully conducted at midday Moscow time [8:a.m. GMT] October 29 from the Baikonur space center," Colonel Alexander Vovk said. "A simulated warhead has reached the Kura testing site on the Kamchatka peninsula [in the Russian Far East]," the official said. He said the launch had been conducted in order to assess the possibility of extending the service life of the Stiletto ICBMs, which have so far been operational for 29 years. "As a result of the successful test launch, the service life of one of our most reliable missile complexes will be extended to 31 years," Vovk said. RS-18 missiles have a combat range exceeding 9,600 km [more than 6,000 miles], and are considered to be highly reliable. Over 100 silo-based Stiletto missiles are currently in service with the SMF, with each missile carrying six 550-kiloton warheads. The SMF commander, Colonel General Nikolai Solovtsov, said last Friday that RS-18 (SS-19 Stiletto) and RS-12M (SS-25 Sickle) will be gradually replaced by new RS-24 ICBMs, equipped with MIRV warheads and characterized by high missile-defense penetration capability.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20071029/85783408.html

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Does World War III Loom Large?



If the US and Russia continue a course of mutual belligerency — albeit gloved — the road to Armageddon will be short.

The West must understand that Russia newly flushed with energy wealth is no longer an underdog but a major world player. Russia, in its turn, must quit sending its bombers to tease Western countries. The US should come to terms with the fact it's no longer the only policeman on the block. People are generally given to shrugging off mentions of a third world war. This is mainly because the next one could be mankind's last. Those who sprinkle their speeches or articles with dire warnings of a massive nuclear conflagration are often written off as scaremongers.

Those who lived through the horrors of World War II and later witnessed the battered planet coming together to draft the Geneva Conventions and form the United Nations had hope that we had truly learned our lesson. Never again! Surely it is inconceivable that world leaders would be prepared to put their nations on a suicidal collision course for any reason. Indeed, even during the most critical periods of the 45-year-long Cold War between the former Soviet Union and the United States, successive leaders on both sides of the Iron Curtain were careful to exercise restraint.

It was, therefore, surprising - nay shocking - to hear President George Bush admit he had told world leaders "If you're interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing Iran from having the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon". Was this a warning? Was this a threat, or was it merely overblown rhetoric intended to be a global wake-up call? Whatever the intent behind the statement, it brought the ugly specter of another world war back into the public conscious as a potential reality. President Bush refrained from spelling out who the protagonists of any such world war might be but in light of the current cool climate between the US and Russia — and to a lesser extent between the US and China — over ways to eliminate Iran's uranium enrichment program one can be forgiven for speculating.

There is no doubt, too, that Russia is increasingly flexing its newly developed muscle. Earlier this month, Caspian Sea states (including Iran) signed a declaration upon Russia's urging to the effect they will never allow their soil to be used by a foreign country to launch a military attack against another Caspian nation. They also stressed that all signatories to the NPT have the right to generate and utilize nuclear energy for peaceful purposes — a snub to US thinking. Russia's President Vladimir Putin has told Washington in no uncertain terms that his country will not accept military strikes on Iran and reinforced that message with an unprecedented invitation to the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to visit him in Moscow. Pundits noted that the body language between Putin and Ahmadinejad appeared jolly and relaxed in contrast to the Russian leader's earlier more sober meetings with Germany's Chancellor Merkel and France's President Sarkozy.

And last week, Putin turned his ire on Bush comparing the stringent new US sanctions against Iran and the American president's attitude toward Tehran with that of a madman "running about with a razor blade in his hand". Putin believes the sanctions will achieve little other than to undermine any hope of constructive dialogue between Iran and the West. Highlighting the reality of war talk in the air, the Director-General of the Kazakhstan Institute of Strategic Studies Dr. Bulat K. Sultanov was recently driven to announce that Kazakhstan would side with Russia in case of a US-Russia confrontation. Wouldn't such a confrontation amount to World War III?

But the method of ensuring Iran does not acquire the ability to manufacture nuclear weapons is far from being the only bone of contention between Russia and the US. Russia vehemently objects to what it views as Washington's interference in the politics of former Soviet republics. Moreover, the two nuclear giants do not see eye-to-eye on an independent Kosovo and neither can they agree on Bush's plan to deploy a missile interceptors in Poland and a radar-tracking facility in the Czech Republic, which Russia believes would pose a threat to it despite American assurances to the contrary. Last week, the Russian leader compared the atmosphere surrounding the US missile defense proposal with a severity parallel to the Cuban missile crisis in the early 1960s when the Cold War heated up to the point of becoming a nuclear confrontation.

"For us the situation is technologically very similar," he said. "We have withdrawn the remains of our bases from Vietnam, from Cuba and have liquidated everything there, while at our borders such threats against our country are being created". Russia has also warned that the stationing of US weapons in space would trigger a full-scale arms race between Russia and the West. "We don't want to fight in space," said a Russian commander, but "the consequences of positioning strike forces in orbit will be too serious". Putin did, however, mitigate his comments by referring to President Bush as a personal friend and allowing that Washington appears to be listening to Russian concerns.

In the end this is a dangerous power play, which risks ending in unwanted and unforeseen consequences for either side. Russia's nuclear bombers have resumed their Cold War-style routine flights and, in August this year, flew close to the US Pacific island of Guam; close enough to "exchange smiles" with US pilots on aircraft carriers. A month earlier, in July, Britain scrambled RAF Tornado fighter jets to prevent Russian bombers from entering British airspace - a provocative near incursion at a time when London and Moscow had withdrawn their diplomats over Russia's refusal to extradite a murder suspect. What if one of those pilots on either side of the divide had unleashed his firepower, fearing his country was under serious threat? Despite the damage, cooler heads may have prevailed, or, on the other hand, there could have been massive retaliation in kind.

Back to the question: Is World War III inevitable? If the US and Russia continue a course of mutual belligerency - albeit gloved - the road to Armageddon will be short. The West must understand that Russia newly flushed with energy wealth is no longer an underdog but a major world player. Russia, in its turn, must quit sending its bombers to tease Western countries. The US should come to terms with the fact it's no longer the only policeman on the block. The age of the sole superpower has to make way for a multipolar world. Only when big powers learn to treat one another with respect can the rest of us continue sleeping soundly at night.

Source: http://www.arabnews.com/?page=7&sect...30&m=10&y=2007

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Russia test-fires short-range interceptor missile



Russia successfully tested a short-range anti-ballistic missile on Tuesday at a test site in Kazakhstan, a Strategic Missile Forces spokesman announced. "A joint team of Strategic Missile Forces, Space Forces and industry experts test launched a short-range missile interceptor on Tuesday at 11:00 a.m. [8:00 a.m. GMT] from the Sary-Shagan testing site in Kazakhstan," Col. Alexander Vovk said. He said the launch had been conducted to test the performance characteristics and extend the service life of missiles used as part of the national missile defense system. The latest test was the 43rd launch of this type of interceptor missile since 1983. The previous launch from Sary-Shagan was conducted on October 11. Russia's Strategic Missile Forces announced last Friday they would conduct five launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles by the end of 2007. Commander Col. Gen. Nikolai Solovtsov said seven ICBM launches had been conducted so far in 2007 to test the performance of a new RS-24 missile with multiple warheads, extend the service life of RS-18 and RS-25 missiles, and to lift payloads into orbit.

Source:

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Russian new-generation fighter plane set 2012 deadline



Russia's new-generation fighter plane, currently being jointly developed with India, will make its maiden flight no later than in 2012, a senior Air Force official said on Tuesday. Russia and India signed an agreement on cooperation in the development and production of an advanced multi-purpose fighter aircraft on October 18. "The deadlines have been set - it [the fighter] must take to the skies in 2012 and enter service [with the Air Force] in 2015," said Lt. Gen. Igor Sadofyev, deputy commander of the Russian Air Force. The general said Russian-Indian cooperation on the project would significantly boost its development. "International cooperation and joint development efforts will certainly expedite the process," Sadofyev said. "It's a path the whole world is taking nowadays, and we are no exception." He also said the Air Force was planning to procure at least six to eight Su-34 Fullback strike aircraft every year, starting from 2008. "Russia's Air Force desperately needs the Su-34s," the general said. "I would prefer to re-equip at least two air regiments every year - that is, 48 aircraft," Sadofyev said. "Unfortunately, this is financially impossible at present, but it is perhaps we will get six to eight planes annually". The $36 million Su-34 fighter-bomber is a two-seat strike aircraft equipped with twin AL-31MF afterburning turbojet engines. It is designed to deliver high-precision strikes on heavily-defended targets under any weather conditions, day or night, and fields weaponry that includes a 30mm GSh-301 cannon, up to 12 Alamo or Archer AAMs, ASMs, and bombs. Designed by the Sukhoi, the Su-34s will replace the Su-24 Fencer frontline bombers. Experts said the new bomber has the potential to become the top plane in its class for years to come.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20071030/85919342.html

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Growing Russia, Iran ties

Most summit meetings these days are uneventful, because of the primacy given to protocol and publicity rather than to substance. But last week’s meeting between the leaders of Iran and Russia, on the sidelines of the Caspian Sea summit in Tehran, was a qualitatively different affair. The timing of Iran’s initiative for a summit of the five Caspian Sea littoral states that brought President Putin to Tehran -- the first visit by a Russian leader in 60 years -- represented a major success for its efforts to break out of the isolation that the U.S. has tried to impose on it. Moreover, the Iranians chose wisely to relegate to the background such thorny issues as Caspian Sea ownership and ‘legal regime’, focusing their energies on shared interests, trans-boundary issues and trade. This was to the advantage of Iran, given its relatively minor energy interests in its sector of the Caspian Sea.

If Iran was the beneficiary of the summit, President Putin was its star. Betraying no evidence of being a ‘lame-duck’ president, Putin warned against military action against Iran, while declaring that it was wrong to ‘think about the possibility of using force’. More importantly, he emphasized that it would be irresponsible to ‘talk about the possibility of using our territory for other countries to carry out aggression or military action against other Caspian littoral states’. No less significant was his support for Iran’s right to nuclear energy, adding that Russia supported the right of all NPT members to ‘research, produce and use nuclear energy for peaceful ends, without discrimination, within the framework of this treaty and the mechanisms of the UN nuclear watchdog’. For good measure, Putin also reminded the world that ‘Russia is the only country helping Iran to construct a nuclear power station for peaceful ends’ and reiterated that Russia would honor its commitment to complete it.

Putin’s unequivocal support for Iran caught Washington by surprise. In response, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice accused Iranian leaders of ‘lying’ about their nuclear program while the Pentagon reiterated that Iran was providing weapons to insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan. This was followed by President Bush warning that Iran must be barred from acquiring nuclear weapons to avoid the prospects of a third world war. Vice President Cheney, long recognized as a ‘hawk’ on Iran, stepped in with the declaration that the U.S. ‘will not allow Iran to have nuclear weapons’.

What upset the Bush administration even more was that Putin’s visit to Tehran took place only days after Ms. Rice and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates had held a comprehensive dialogue with their Russian counterparts in Moscow. Both sides claimed that they wished to defuse the mounting tensions between them, but the Moscow meeting failed to bridge their differences, with the U.S. anti-missile defense shield proposal and the Russian threat to abandon the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, resulting in a public spat between them. Putin’s statements in Tehran are significant for they represent a departure from Russia’s oft stated policy of working with the U.S. and the other P-5 states to maintain diplomatic pressure on Iran. Washington’s harsh reaction confirms the impression that this development represents a failure of its policy towards Russia, as much as it demonstrates the skill and resolve with which Putin has advanced his country’s interests, even when playing with a weak hand.

Putin’s assertive foreign policy may have upset many in the West but it has endeared him to his people, for it is taken ‘as a sign of the strengthening of Russia’s role and authority on the world stage’. But it is not only in Europe that Putin wants to demonstrate Russia’s influence. Central Asia and the Middle East have not escaped his attention either. Relations with China in particular occupy centre-stage in Putin’s strategic plans for the region, both bilaterally and in the context of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. In fact, Sino-Russian collaboration confronts the West with a formidable challenge.

As Putin ends his second four-year term, the Russians are deeply appreciative of the peace and order imposed by him. But what has endeared Putin to most Russians is the element of ‘pride’ that he has restored to the country. What the U.S. sees as ‘aggressive’ or ‘nationalist’ policies are viewed by Russians as ‘independent’ and ‘sovereign’ policies. The U.S. must learn to strike a balance in its relations with Russia and treat it as a responsible major global power, just as it treats China as an economic giant and a major political player. The U.S. must also recognize that the Russians will no longer brook ‘guidance’, and certainly not any ‘interference’ in their internal affairs. That era is over now.

Meanwhile, Iran has become an obsession with the Bush administration. It has also emerged as a major issue in the foreign policy debate for the U.S. presidential candidates. While some Democrats are accusing Bush of raising the specter of a global war, Hillary Clinton has opted to give the president ‘a virtual blank check’. Nevertheless, many Americans remain skeptical of U.S. allegations against Iran’s nuclear program. In an op-ed piece, Scott Ritter, a former UN arms inspector, asserted that ‘a careful fact-based assessment of Iran demonstrates that it poses no threat to the legitimate national security interests of the United States’.

Putin’s comments highlighted the growing differences between Russia and the West, especially the United States. While the latter seeks more unilateral and multilateral sanctions to punish Iran for its nuclear program, the former believes that diplomacy is the only way to solve the stand-off; especially as it remains skeptical about western claims that Iran’s nuclear program is military in nature. In fact, it is U.S. interventionist policies and Washington’s proclivity to unilateral action that has propelled Russia and Iran to come closer. With both under pressure from the Bush administration, the Tehran summit’s results represent a major success for them. Iran, described by Putin as an ‘important regional and global power’, has been provided with some much-needed breathing space that it will be able to put to good use, thanks to the skill with which it pursues its multi-faceted diplomacy.

It will also try to use the summit declaration as a stepping stone to full membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, seen increasingly as a security counterweight to NATO and U.S. ‘hegemony’. On the other hand, it is clear that Moscow is now prepared to enter into a new strategic relationship with Iran that is likely to have a profound impact on the region. This is one development that needs to be monitored closely by us as well.

Source: http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=156047

Russia, Iran: The Next Step in the Diplomatic Tango

Summary

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is paying a brief visit to Tehran on Oct. 30 to meet with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. His trip comes just two weeks after a major Russian-Iranian summit in Tehran, during which Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly conveyed that he had every intention of entangling Russia in Iran's showdown with the United States over Iraq. Though this love triangle is filled with more drama than a Brazilian telenovela, each step carries significant implications for U.S., Iranian and Russian foreign policy.

Analysis

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is in Tehran on Oct. 30 paying a brief visit to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry. This is the second major Iranian-Russian meeting this month. At the Oct. 15-16 Caspian Summit in Tehran, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his unequivocal support for Iran against U.S. aggression. Ahmadinejad also is expected to visit Moscow soon. Lavrov's surprise visit to Tehran is likely intended to work out the details of an alleged offer Putin made to the Iranians during the Caspian Summit. Before a discussion of what this murky Iranian-Russian deal could entail, the Lavrov-Ahmadinejad meeting needs some context.

Russia has a fine-tuned strategy of exploiting its Middle Eastern allies' interests for its own political purposes. Iran is the perfect candidate. It is a powerful Islamic state that is locked into a showdown with the United States over its nuclear program and Iraq. Though Washington and Tehran are constantly battling in the public sphere with war rhetoric, they need to deal with each other for the sake of their strategic interests. Russia, meanwhile, has its own turf war with the United States that involves a range of hot issues, including National Missile Defense, renegotiating Cold War-era treaties, and Western interference in Russia's periphery. By demonstrating that Moscow has some real sway over the Iranians, Russia gains a useful bargaining chip to use in its dealings with the United States.

The Iranians, on the other hand, are focused on Iraq. The fall of Saddam Hussein gave Iran a historic opportunity to extend a Shiite buffer zone into Iraq, but Tehran still must contend with the United States, which remains the primary obstacle to Iran's expansionist ambitions. Iran has used its nuclear program as a bargaining chip in its negotiations with the United States over Iraq, but is engaged in an intense internal debate over how to best use the nuclear issue in talks with Washington.

Iran knows the United States -- not Russia -- has leverage in Iraq. Why, then, are the Iranians so interested in cozying up to Russia, a country they deeply distrust? The Iranians appear to be searching for a way to bolster their deterrent strategy against the United States before Tehran makes any bold moves in Iraq. Russia has offered itself as Iran's backup, providing the necessary diplomatic cover and military support to ward off U.S. aggression against Iran. With Russian support, the Iranians have more leverage in their negotiations with the United States.

But the Russian offer does not come without a price. For Moscow to demonstrate that it has actual leverage in its relationship with Tehran, the Iranians must offer cooperation on the nuclear issue. After all, Russia is just as interested as the United States is in preventing a nuclear Iran from becoming a reality. This way, Russia extracts political benefits from the United States, and Iran has an opening to move forward in serious negotiations with Washington over Iraq.

Lavrov is likely playing the role of messenger during this brief visit. Stratfor would love nothing more than to know what he reports back to Putin, and it will be interesting to see if this visit sets off another political storm in Tehran as the internal policy debate there rages on. In the meantime, Stratfor will be prowling for any clues surrounding this latest step in the Iranian-U.S.-Russian tango.

Source: http://www.stratfor.com/products/pre...ected=Analyses

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Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russian Defense Chief Visits Armenia



Armenia’s leadership and Russia’s visiting Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov pledged to step up the already close military cooperation between their nations as they held talks in Yerevan on Tuesday. Serdyukov’s one-day visit to Armenia involved separate meetings with President Robert Kocharian, Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian and Defense Minister Mikael Harutiunian as well as a visit to Russian troops stationed in the country. “The two sides discussed issues pertaining to military-technical cooperation between the two countries, expressing their satisfaction with the level and quality of their partnership in this sphere,” Kocharian’s office said in a short statement. According to the Armenian government’s press service, Serdyukov told Sarkisian that his visit “will give new impetus” to the development of Russian-Armenian military ties. Sarkisian was quoted as saying that those ties “stem from our national interests” and that Yerevan “will do everything to further deepen and develop them.” A separate statement by the Armenian Defense Ministry said Serdyukov and Harutiunian approved a “plan of cooperation” between their ministries for next year. They also discussed preparations for the next Russian-Armenian military exercises to be held in 2008, the statement said. Serdyukov, accompanied by Harutiunian, visited the northern city of Gyumri earlier in the day to inspect facilities of the Russian military base stationed in the area close to the Armenian-Turkish border. “I wanted to personally familiarize myself with how our servicemen live here, what problems they face,” he told reporters there. “Those are primarily social and logistical.” “I think that we will draw certain conclusions after the trip and take measures to improve the condition of the base,” the Russian minister said. The Russian base has been reinforced in the last few years with military hardware and other equipment that belonged to Russian troops which are currently being pulled out of neighboring Georgia.

Source: http://www.armenialiberty.org/armeni...E4EE768975.ASP\

RF Defense Ministry to continue equipping Russian military base in Armenia

The Russian Ministry of Defense will continue equipping the 102nd military base in Gyumri, Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov told reporters. “Extra measures will be taken,” he said. “I wanted to learn about the problems our servicemen and their families face.” He also informed that the Ministry intends to find sponsors for reconstruction of a 19-century Orthodox Church situated on the base’s territory, Novosti Armenia reports.

Source: http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=23906

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

SOARING TRADE BOOSTS RUSSIAN-ARMENIAN ECONOMIC TIES

Armenia’s trade with Russia has increased dramatically this year, paralleling the growing Russian economic presence in the country, which has sparked concerns about Armenia’s economic independence and even national security. The almost 62% year-on-year rise in Russian-Armenian trade registered in the first eight months of 2007 comes despite Russia’s continuing transport blockade of Georgia, Armenia’s main commercial conduit to the outside world.

According to the most recent data posted by Armenia’s National Statistical Service (NSS) on its website, www.armstat.am, the volume of bilateral trade totaled $404 million in January-August 2007, up from $250 million registered during the same period last year. Much of the gain resulted from an almost 100% surge in Armenian exports to Russia, most of them alcoholic beverages and prepared foodstuffs. Even so, Armenian imports of Russian commodities and goods (notably natural gas) continued to account for most of the bilateral commercial exchange, rising by 50% to about $280 million.

Consequently, Russia saw its share in Armenia’s external trade grow from 13.1% to 15.2%, solidifying its status as the South Caucasus state’s single largest trading partner. The NSS reported similarly strong gains in Armenia’s trade with Georgia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. As a result, the share of non-Baltic former Soviet republics in its trade reached 32.6%, up from 28.4% recorded in January-August 2006. The European Union, by comparison, accounted for 38.2% of the January-August 2007 turnover.

Officials in Moscow and Yerevan have welcomed the growing commercial ties between their countries, which they say will reach a new high of $700 million in the full year 2007. Speaking after talks in Moscow on September 25, the Russian and Armenian prime ministers said they would try to ensure that Russian-Armenian trade hits $1 billion next year (Armenian Public Television, September 25). Armenian Prime Minister Serge Sarkisian instructed his ministers to closely work with their Russian counterparts to meet this target (Statement by the Armenian government, September 27). Nikolai Ryzhkov, a Russian lawmaker co-chairing a Russian-Armenian inter-parliamentary commission, came up with a more conservative estimate during a mid-October visit to Yerevan, predicting bilateral trade will likely pass $1 billion mark only in 2009 (Interfax, October 19).

Russia-Armenian trade is growing strongly despite Russia’s decision in June 2006 to close its main border crossing with Georgia. Moscow cited the need to conduct repairs on Russian border guard and customs facilities. The move, whatever its real motives, hit hard Armenian companies that heavily relied on the Upper Lars crossing in shipping goods to Russia and other parts of the former Soviet Union. Armenian government officials and lawmakers have since been lobbying their Russian counterparts to reopen Upper Lars. According the Armenian ambassador in Moscow, Armen Smbatian, the Russians have promised to do that some time in 2008 (RFE/RL Armenia Report, September 28).

Armenian exporters, meanwhile, appear to have quickly adapted to the new situation through an even greater reliance on a rail-ferry link between the Georgian Black Sea port of Poti and Ukraine’s Ilyichevsk. A similar ferry service, designed to primarily cater to Armenia, was launched in April 2007 between Poti and the Russian port of Port-Kavkaz. However, the service has yet to become regular and frequent enough to process substantial amounts of freight. Sarkisian reportedly raised the issue with his Russian counterpart, Viktor Zubkov, during their Moscow meeting.

Zubkov told journalists after the talks that Russian companies would invest $1.5 billion in Armenia “in the near future.” He gave no details, saying only that much of those investments will be channeled into the construction of an oil refinery in southeastern Armenia that will process crude from neighboring Iran. The ambitious project featured prominently during Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s October 22 visit to Armenia. Speaking at a joint news conference with Ahmadinejad, Armenian President Robert Kocharian said Yerevan and Tehran agreed to press ahead with the project’s implementation.

Another top Russian official, Transport Minister Igor Levitin, said in Yerevan on September 14 that Russian investments in the Armenian economy will reach a record-high level of $500 million in 2007 (Azg, September 15). He did not specify whether the figure includes $430 million that the Russian telecommunications operator MTS paid to purchase Armenia’s largest mobile phone network, VivaCell, from a Lebanese-owned firm. The deal, officially announced in Yerevan on September 14, came almost a year after the $500 million acquisition of Armenia’s national telephone company and its wireless network by another Russian telecom operator, Vimpelcom.

The Armenian government is believed to have played a key role in both takeovers that left another sector of Armenia’s economy under Russian ownership. It has also been instrumental in Russian control of the Armenian energy sector. That control has become near total since the signing of a controversial April 2006 agreement that enabled Armenia to avoid a doubling of the price of Russian gas until January 2009 in return for handing over more energy assets to Russia. It was officially confirmed on September 12 that those assets include the entire Armenian section of an under-construction gas pipeline from Iran (Haykakan Zhamanak, September 13). It will now be owned by the Armenian national gas company in which Russia’s Gazprom conglomerate has a controlling stake.

The tightening of Russia’s economic grip on Armenia is widely attributed to Kocharian’s and his preferred successor Sarkisian’s obvious desire to ensure the Kremlin’s continued support for their regime. The two men, who single-handedly make all key decisions affecting the nation, are poised to cede more industries to Russian companies ahead of next spring’s Armenian presidential election. Those include Armenia’s rail network and largest gold mining company.

Source: http://jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2372546

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russian Bomber and Sub Activity



The recent flurry of “strategic” bomber activity from the Russian air force drew considerable interest in the West. The air force, however, is not the only arm of Russia’s forces to be upping the tempo of activities. There seems to have been a notable increase in Russian submarine activity in the northern Atlantic over the past twelve months, with some military sources suggesting there have been three peaks in activity. Like its airborne counterpart, Russian submarine activity nosedived following the collapse of the Soviet Union. And also like the air force, ambitious plans for next-generation platforms and weapon systems suffered as funding dried up. Unlike the air force however, the Russian navy was not at the bottom of the Kremlin’s strategic pecking order. The hull for the first of a new class of ballistic missile submarine, now known as the Project 955, was laid down in 1996, with a further two also being built. The navy would like to acquire eventually up to 10 of the class. The first of these, the Yury Dolgoruky was launched in April of this year.

Source: http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/blogs...f-0dd121c4e633

Russian bomber detected on patrol near Denmark



Two Danish F16 jet fighters were scrambled Tuesday after a Russian military aircraft flew close to Danish territory in the North Sea. The Russian plane was identified as a bomb plane of the type TU-160, also called Blackjack by NATO, to which Denmark belongs. Both British and Norwegian jet fighters earlier Tuesday monitored the TU-160, a Danish air force spokesman told Danish radio news. Russia has in recent months revived a Cold War-era practice of flying bombers on long-range patrols and the Norwegian Air Force as well as the RAF have on several occasions sent up fighters to observe them.

Source: http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/133245.html