The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russia threatens to build up troops on western borders over CFE

Russia's Defense Ministry said it might reinforce its troops near its western borders if parliament supports the president's proposed moratorium on a key arms reduction treaty in Europe. Russia's lower house, the State Duma, is expected to pass a presidential bill on the country's withdrawal from the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE) on Wednesday. The proposal has been widely seen as a Kremlin move to prevent the U.S. from deploying a missile shield in Central Europe. "We are carrying out work as regards the issue," said First Deputy Defense Minister, Gen. Alexander Kolmakov, but added that no final decision had been made so far. President Vladimir Putin signed a decree to suspend the 1990 CFE Treaty in mid-July, citing security concerns. If adopted by parliament, the Russian moratorium is likely to come into force on December 12. The amended version of the Soviet-era treaty was signed in 1999, and has not been ratified by any NATO countries. Moscow considers the original CFE Treaty to be outdated since it does not reflect the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact, the breakup of the Soviet Union, or recent NATO expansion. NATO countries have insisted on Russia's withdrawal from Transdnestr and other breakaway post-Soviet regions as a condition for their ratification of the CFE Treaty.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20071107/86936203.html

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

After all is said and done, the political unrest we have been witnessing in Tbilisi might actually prove to be a "Borsch Revolution," after all. More evidence that Saakashvili's time in Georgia is running out: The United States has been curiously quiet in all this. And according to news reports today, NATO is distancing themselves from Saakashvili as well. No amount of ass-kissing will secure Saakashvili's presidency anymore.

Armenian

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NATO does not want to spoil relations with Russia over Georgia - NATO diplomats

26 June 2007, Moscow: NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer and Russian President Vladimir Putin commemorating the fifth anniversary of the NATO-Russia Council, and the tenth of the Founding Act on Mutual Relations

NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer's harsh criticism of the crackdown of peaceful opposition protests in Tbilisi and the introduction of the state of emergency in the country are proof that NATO is unwilling to sour relations with Russia, NATO diplomats told Interfax. NATO's stated disagreement with the actions of Georgian authorities will not help Georgia's bid to join the alliance, which is the overarching goal of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, a NATO diplomat said. Scheffer said on Thursday that "the state of emergency and the closure of media agencies in Georgia, with which the alliance is in an intensive dialogue, is a subject of particular concern, because this is not in line with NATO values."

Source: http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/politics/...issue=11903964

State of emergency:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-WKdLea3GIE

Georgia to elect new president in January:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCIkE...&oe=UTF-8&hl=e

A victory for Russia's secret war as Georgian leader calls election

Russia has scored a tactical victory in its long-term strategic battle with Western-leaning Georgia after a clumsy and brutal crackdown on the opposition by the leader of the "rose revolution" in the former Soviet republic, President Mikheil Saakashvili.

President Saakashvili, facing his biggest crisis since sweeping to power in a peaceful revolution four years ago, yielded yesterday to an opposition demand by calling a presidential election on 5 January, instead of next autumn, after his government was universally condemned for heavy-handed police tactics against protesters that left 250 people injured. Television images showed opposition demonstrators being chased, kicked and beaten by riot police after the government moved to end five days of peaceful protests by up to 50,000 people.

But it remains to be seen whether Mr Saakashvili's announcement will be sufficient to defuse the crisis and save his presidency. Troops patrolled the capital, Tbilisi, yesterday after the President, a US-trained lawyer who has been accused of becoming increasingly autocratic, ordered a two-week state of emergency on Wednesday night and sent armed troops to shut down the two main opposition television stations. Staff had guns held to their heads. Under the emergency, only state-run outlets may broadcast news and schools have been closed until next week. Rallies have been banned.

Mr Saakashvili said he regretted the use of force, but justified the emergency measures by accusing Russia of mounting a coup behind the scenes. "Russian special services have stepped up their activities in Georgia," he said in a televised address several hours after riot police using truncheons, rubber bullets, water cannons and tear gas dispersed protesters calling for his resignation.

"A country which has a lot of money and expertise has engaged a machine of lies and a mechanism of provocations," he said, before announcing the expulsion of three Russian diplomats. Russia retaliated swiftly yesterday by expelling three Georgian diplomats from Moscow.

Georgian state television broadcast on Wednesday evening what it said was a taped conversation between opposition leaders and Russian embassy officials, in an apparent attempt to back up the official accusation that the opposition was being manipulated by Moscow. Georgia's relations with Moscow have long been tense because of the republic's decision to seek membership of Nato and the European Union. The Kremlin has shown signs of paranoia as countries which it had traditionally seen as its backyard – ranging from Ukraine to the Baltic states – have joined Western strategic organisations or announced the intention of doing so.

Mr Saakashvili's tactics drew a strong condemnation yesterday from Nato, which will consider Georgian membership at a meeting in Bucharest next April. "The imposition of emergency rule, and the closure of media outlets in Georgia, a partner with which the alliance has an intensified dialogue, are of particular concern and not in line with Euro-Atlantic values," the Nato secretary general, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, said in a statement.

The EU presidency urged all parties to "exercise the necessary restraint and refrain from using language and actions that could further deepen the political crisis". Moscow said the violent crackdown had "evidently shown what democracy Georgia-style is" and appealed to the United Nations and the Council of Europe to pressure Georgia to stop using violence. Russia denied it had anything to do with the unrest in Tbilisi and accused Mr Saakashvili of trying to distract attention from domestic problems.

While the international reaction against the Georgian measures will suit the Kremlin, Russian direct involvement in the latest events remained speculative last night. Although Russia has a history of covert – but blatant – interference in Georgia, diplomats said there was as yet no proof that this was the case in the Tbilisi unrest. At a meeting yesterday with Georgia's Foreign Minister, EU ambassadors were given details of the taped conversation between two Russian diplomats and opposition leaders. "That's not proof," said a diplomat present at the meeting. "That is something that diplomats do all the time." The envoy added: "We've not seen anything else."

Other diplomats said that Mr Saakashvili may have other confidential material that he may share in order to prove Russian involvement. However, the mass protests organised by the opposition, a disparate alliance of 10 parties grouping pro-Western Georgians with die-hard Soviet nostalgics, appeared to be a genuine popular movement, with the opposition capitalising on widespread discontent with rising prices and economic hardship.

Speaking in Brussels, the deputy defence minister, Batu Kutelia, told Reuters that his government had "clear evidence collected by our special services of direct financial aid and directives from Moscow. This evidence has been collected and will be distributed to the wider international community. We have evidence that directives have been made to proceed with the riots and to proceed with the overthrow of the government. I have names and particularly visible evidence of specific transfers of money and commands."

The opposition alliance had been holding demonstrations outside parliament since 2 November demanding early elections and an amendment to the electoral code to secure a greater number of opposition seats in parliament. Negotiations with government representatives were in their early stages when Mr Saakashvili ordered the crackdown, tarnishing his democratic credentials. "He over-reacted just when negotiations were getting started. He panicked," said one Western observer in Tbilisi. "It's a great shame."

The US and European governments have been largely sympathetic to the Georgian government, which has set out on a road of democratic reform and a market economy, despite a trade embargo imposed by Russia that backs regional separatist movements inside the republic as part of what is seen as attempts to destabilise the Saakashvili government. But the President's tough reaction to suppress the demonstrations were a chilling reminder for Georgians of Soviet-style tactics, recalling in particular the Soviet army's violent suppression of a peaceful opposition protest in April 1989, using toxic gas.

Source: http://news.independent.co.uk/europe/article3143254.ece

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

For obtaining a better geopolitical understanding of the energy rich Caspian Sea region I'm posting two articles and several old maps. I believe that a better understanding of the energy distribution network of the Caspian Sea region, as well as that of the Persian Gulf, is the key to understanding the root causes of Eurasia's major conflicts today. Also relevant in this context is Moscow's landmark agreement last spring to build a major gas pipeline routing Central Asian gas to the Russian Federation, thereby giving Moscow more-or-less a monopoly of the region's energy distribution and a severe blow to the region's western interests.

Armenian

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Storming the Caspian

As the five Caspian states - Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan - are trying, with little success, to come to terms on the legal status of Caspian Sea, the region is gradually emerging as one of the most explosive parts of the world. Experts believe that tensions there could come to a head soon.

In Washington's Cross Hairs

The Caspian region is turning from a zone of diplomatic games into a military test site. The coastal states are actively building up their military presence: in the past decade, the number of warships on the Caspian has almost doubled, while coastal infrastructure is also being rapidly reinforced. Furthermore, "non-Caspian" countries, in particular the United States, have started demonstrating their interest and flexing their muscle in the area. Washington's foreign policy line in the Caspian region is geared toward several goals. Priority is given to creating conditions where Moscow would be unable to exercise control over U.S. energy projects. The United States is currently trying to justify its plan to increase its influence on the Caspian with the pressing need to boost security along the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline. There has been increasing talk in the West about the need for NATO's military presence in the Caspian region.

"The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is considering the possibility of providing security for the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline," said Robert Simmons, the NATO secretary general's special representative for the Caucasus and Central Asia. "The Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline runs to Turkey, a NATO country, and passes through the territory of Azerbaijan, a NATO partner. The protection of energy infrastructure includes the security of this oil pipeline in addition to other energy infrastructure facilities." He said that terrorism is the biggest threat to the pipeline. Washington is also seriously concerned by the prospect of a full blown war breaking out between Turkey and ethnic Kurds based in the north of Iraq. The White House is no longer attempting to hide its fear of bomb attacks against the oil pipelines leading from rebellious Kurdistan. Furthermore, the Americans do not rule out that possible terrorist attacks could be carried out on orders from Tehran, while Washington is on the verge of war with it.

The Iran problem is yet another plausible excuse for the U.S. to strengthen its military presence in the Caspian: the Pentagon needs logistic bases in the region should it decide to use force against Tehran. The Americans intend to use Azerbaijan's territory in an anti-Iran campaign. Washington has already provided $30 million to beef up the country's coast guard. Now the United States has earmarked $135 million as part of the Caspian Guard Initiative, a framework program designed to coordinate activities in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan with those of U.S. Central Command and other U.S. government agencies to enhance Caspian security. The program assists the two countries in improving their ability to prevent and, if needed, respond to terrorism, nuclear proliferation, drug and human trafficking, and other transnational treats in the Caspian region. According to some reports, the Pentagon has already built two radar stations, as well as command and control facilities in Azerbaijan. In addition to that, as part of Baku's partnership plan with Brussels, Azerbaijan's Navy and Border Service will be provided with advanced, state of the art military hardware and equipment.

NATO has also finalized a long term program to provide military support for all pipelines along the Caspian-Turkey-Balkans route. A NATO contingent is already present in the region, in particular at former Soviet military bases in the Azerbaijani towns of Kurdamir, Nasosnoye and Gulli: "temporary mobile forces" have been deployed there since the spring of 2006. Their strength, according to different estimates, varies between 750 and 1,300 troops, but is expected to double in the foreseeable future. This force is also designed for "strategic missions" in Georgia, its principal function being to "protect" the Azerbaijani-Georgian section of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.

The Stakes

It is noteworthy that the Caspian "Group of Five" have different views on Western military presence in the oil region. Like Iran, Russia has long been opposed to any interference by "third party countries" in regional affairs. At their recent summit in Tehran, the "Group of Five" adopted a declaration prohibiting the presence of "non-Caspian" armed forces in the region or any use of force in resolving regional problems. The Caspian was declared "a sea of peace."

The Kremlin is convinced that Washingxton's military plans in the Caspian region are not only aimed against Tehran: they also jeopardize Russia's security and sovereignty. Furthermore, Moscow is evidently attempting to neutralize the West's efforts to strengthen its presence in the Caspian region, not least through large scale energy projects. Analysts believe that one of Russia's priorities today is to thwart the construction of the Nabucco trans-Caspian natural gas pipeline to Europe bypassing Russia. The provisions of the Tehran agreements signed by the five Caspian nations can easily freeze this project skirting Russia.

However, many experts are skeptical about the Tehran documents, stressing that they are but a declaration of intent. Indeed, it is rather unlikely that Azerbaijan will deny the Americans the use of its soil. After all, Baku, which has already clashed with Tehran over disputed oil fields, is well served by U.S. military presence, especially in the event of new friction with the Iranian side. For their part, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, which were unable to bow out of participation in the Trans-Caspian project lobbied for by the West, are also unlikely to adopt a tough stance on U.S. military presence in the Caspian, especially considering that Washington is actively helping these republics in protecting their oil and gas deposits and is ready to invest heavily in developing sections of the Kazakh and Turkmen shelves in the Caspian Sea.

It seems that only China could show complete solidarity with Russia and Iran in their anti-U.S. stance. Analysts believe that China could soon become an additional center of influence in the region. Beijing, which is building a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan, will somehow or other have to protect its oil and gas interests. So it is quite possible that unless a convention on the legal status of the sea (lake) is signed, Chinese flagged ships could appear in the Caspian waters. Incidentally, experts believe that Tehran, which owns two percent of global oil reserves, nevertheless, regards Moscow as a potential competitor and does not rule out the possibility of clashes with the Russian side and could use Beijing as a counterweight not only against the United States, but also against Russia. And it looks like Iran is ready to bet on the new Caspian player. Meanwhile, the stakes in the Caspian game are very high: according to various estimates, this body of water contains between four and 10 percent of the world's hydrocarbon reserves.

As for Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, thus far, they are only building up their military capability on the Caspian to protect their own natural resources. But given the disparity of the geo-political interests of the Caspian states and the lack of serious agreements in the realm of regional security, today, they can be seen as potential adversaries in a possible war. True, to date, there have been no scenarios for a military conflict in this landlocked sea: the military doctrines of the coastal states do not even use the term "border threats."

Source: http://mnweekly.ru/cis/20071108/55288159.html

Russia Seals Caspian Deal

President Vladimir Putin didn't spend a week in Central Asia in vain. Finding room in his tight schedule to accommodate a weeklong trip to Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan definitely paid off as Putin brought back to Moscow a landmark agreement to build a gas pipeline routing Central Asian gas to Russia. The Kremlin strongman once again proved his commitment to strengthening Russia's role in global energy supply, offsetting the United States' effort to push forward a Trans-Caspian gas pipeline project.

While its unprecedented length might have been surprising, the trip's timing was definitely not - Putin chose an open window of opportunity that coincided with an energy summit in Krakow where Polish officials hosted a group of former Soviet nations looking to break away from Russia's ‘energy stranglehold.' The leaders of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Lithuania and Ukraine traveled to Krakow to hammer out an oil transportation deal that aimed to diminish their countries' dependence on the Russian energy giant.

Kazakhstan also joined this group, but with President Nursultan Nazarxbayev receiving Putin in Astana, it was apparent that Kazakhstan's representation at the forum would be hurt. Staying at home with Putin and sending his lieutenants to Poland wasn't just a technicality for Nazarbayev. It was a clear indication of the choice he had made. Though formally backing the idea for the diversification of oil and gas supply routes, largely promoted by EU members trying to reduce Russia's energy clout, Nazarbayev still decided to support a declaration that will create a pipeline system, which will likely make its Western-backed alternative redundant. The same story applies to Turkmenistan Presixdent Gurbanguly Berdyxmuxkhamxmedov, the host of the May 12 meeting in the city of Turkmenbashi. Western majors have been courting Berdymukhammedov since his predecessor's death last fall, hoping he would give a nod to a gas pipeline project linking Turkmexnixstan with Central and Western Europe.

But Putin's diplomatic skills were apparently strong enough to convince the Central Asian leaders to throw their support behind the project, which foresees an increase of supplies of local gas to foreign markets via Russia by 30 million cubic meters by 2016-2017. According to the Turkmenbashi declarations, this will be achieved by constructing along the Caspian shore an overland gas pipeline dubbed Central Asia-Center-4, which will carry 10 billion cubic meters of gas annually, as well as through the upgrade of the existing Central Asia-Center-3 pipexline, whose throughput capacity is expected to grow to 20 billion cubic meters. This deal involves a fourth country, Uzbekistan, whose Presxident Islam Karimov had separately signed the declaration in Tashkent on May 9.

"We will rebuild the existing facilities and construct a new pipeline. This will be done in the nearest future and by 2012 we will have increased the throughput to at least 12 billion cubic meters," Putin told reporters. According to Russia's Industry and Energy Minster Viktor Khristenko, the project would be implemented in two stages. The first stage would see the current capacity expanded to 10 billion cubic meters per year by 2009-2010. The second stage could take "five to seven years" during which the throughput could be increased by a further 20 billion cubic meters, he said.

The Turkmenbashi agreements will be formalized through an intergovernmental treaty, which is to be prepared by the September 1 deadline. The project's implementation would question the logic behind constructing the U.S.-backed Nabucco gas pipeline, which was meant to transport gas from Azerbaijan, Turkxmexnistan and Iran to consumers in Central and Western Europe, with the throughput peaking at 31 billion cubic meters per annum by 2017. The Kremlin officials' jubilant mood after Saturday's declaration signing at Turkmenbashi was a bit spoiled, however, by Kazakh and Turkmen leaders' remarks suggesting they are not burying the idea of the Trans-Caspian trunkline yet.

"Diversification of gas transport routes is taking place all over the world. As regards this issue (construction of the Trans-Caspian pipeline - MN), it can be put under consideration," Berdyxmukhammexdov told reporters. The Turkmen leader also brushed off speculations that Turkmenistan's gas deposits cannot be sufficient to fill both pipes. "Don't worry, there is enough gas," he said. Nazarbayev stressed that Astana would pursue a "completely pragmatic approach" toward construction of new gas pipelines.

"For us diversification of gas and oil deliveries is advantageous. Politics has nothing to do with it. Kazakhxstan's growing oil and gas production requires such diversification," the Kazakh president said. Russian officials remain skeptical about the future of the Trans-Caspian pipeline project, which may encounter legal problems since part of its suggested route runs across the Caspian seabed. So far, the five littoral states have failed to clinch an agreement on the division of the Caspian, and as long as there isn't one, the plans to build a subsea section of the proposed pipeline could be stalled. Moreover, Moscow questions the project's commercial viability while contesting that it has a political dimension.

[...]

Source: http://mnweekly.ru/business/20070517/55248324.html

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Bilateral ties with Russia to reach 'great heights': PM

Underscoring Russia's "special and unique" place in India's foreign relations, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has hoped that bilateral cooperation in the fields of defence and energy security will continue to grow in future.

"India and Russia have enjoyed close ties of friendship and partnership over the last sixty years. Russia occupies a special and unique place in India's foreign relations. Our time-tested relationship is based on deep mutual trust and understanding," Singh, who will leave for Moscow on Sunday on a two-day visit, said in an interview to government agency RIA Novosti. Expressing optimism on the future of bilateral strategic partnership between the two nations, he said "Indo-Russian relations will grow to great heights. The evolution of our relations will be based on the solid foundation of the last sixty years. I see a continuing convergence and similarity of our world views on major international issues.

The prime minister dubbed Russia as India's "most important partner" in defence cooperation. "Russia is the only country with which we have a formal mechanism of an Inter-Governmental Commission for military-technical cooperation, which meets annually under the chairmanship of the two defence ministers," Singh underscored. "Defence cooperation is an integral element of our strategic partnership. Joint research, development and production of defence equipment will continue to play an important role in strengthening India's strategic partnership with Russia," Singh said noting that many defence contracts between the two nations are at various stages of implementation.

He cited last month's signing of inter-governmental agreement for cooperation in the production and development of fifth generation multi-functional fighter aircraft (FGFA). "I am sure that bilateral collaboration in the field of military technical cooperation will continue to grow in the future," the PM said. He proposed India, with its rapidly increasing energy demands, could become a major guarantor of energy demand for Russia, with its immense proven reserves of oil and gas.

"With India growing at over 8-9 per cent per annum, our energy requirements are increasing rapidly. President Putin has defined energy security as not just security of supply but also security of demand. India can be a major guarantor for energy demand," Singh said. He noted that Indian and Russian oil and gas companies are engaged in discussions to expand their cooperation beyond the Sakhalin-1 project. At the same time, Russian oil and gas companies are active in India. The Prime Minister named enhancement of power generation capacity as an extremely important objective for India. According to him, India needs energy from all sources, including renewable and nuclear energy.

"We have plans to produce 20,000 MW of nuclear power by 2020. International civil nuclear energy cooperation will enable us to augment our nuclear energy production," Singh stated. He expressed gratitude for Russia's ongoing partnership in the construction of nuclear power units at Kudankulam in Tamil Nadu. Sources said the two countries could sign a fresh deal for the construction of four more reactors at Kudankulam to enhance its projected capacity from 2 MW to 6 MW on Monday.

Responding to a question about his vision of Indo-Russian strategic partnership after 15 years, Singh said: "I am very optimistic about the future of our strategic partnership with Russia." Singh pointed that Indo-Russian "geo-political interests have always had much in common" and Moscow and New Delhi have intensive contacts at all levels. He expressed gratitude to Russian President Vladimir Putin for strong personal commitment to Indo-Russian relations and for institutionalising the mechanism of annual summit- level exchanges during his first visit to India in 2000.

"We have a shared destiny, and a common neighbourhood where we seek to build an atmosphere of peace, stability and cooperation. India and Russia will continue to work together to shape an equitable international order which reflects contemporary realities," he said. Singh is scheduled to hold wide-ranging talks with President Putin in the Kremlin on Monday. "India and Russia present a unique example of two large states with a strong interest in a peaceful, secure and prosperous world order and high stakes in the orderly functioning of the international system," Singh pointed out.

He said that their shared world view, which envisages a strong role for the United Nations, could help foster closer political relations and cooperation in multilateral forums. "I also see much more collaboration to exploit our mutual strengths and complementarities. "The rapid growth of our economies will create new opportunities for mutual cooperation, particularly in the area of energy security. Apart from this, the traditional pillars of our strategic partnership can be expected to see a further deepening," he said.

Source: http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus...0711101222.htm

N-pact tops Singh's Moscow agenda

India's PM is planning to discuss nuclear cooperation and the production of a military transport aircraft during his visit to Russia. The Cabinet Committee on Security convened on Thursday-- ahead of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's second visit to Moscow in two years-- to approve a number of agreements to be concluded by the two sides. Ways to improve bilateral trade and energy cooperation and fine tuning defense ties are expected to be outlined in the new pacts. Nuclear cooperation is expected to be high on the agenda of Singh's visit amid reports that the two countries will sign an agreement for building four more nuclear reactors in India. Singh will leave for Moscow on Sunday on a two-day visit for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Source: http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id...onid=351020402

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russia, China 'closer'

CHINESE Premier Wen Jiabao's visit to Russia, which ends today, has emphasised rapidly improving ties between the two countries, which were strained for most of the last century. Energy has topped the bill in Mr Wen's talks with President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov. Large, reliable sources of energy are China's greatest import need, and energy is Russia's dominant export, driving its recent growth. Mr Wen sought to advance plans to build gas and oil pipelines from Russia to China. But the pro-Kremlin newspaper Vremya Novostyei editorialised that while the decision to build the pipelines was a joint one "that benefits both countries", China had so far appeared unwilling to pay the international market price - by which Moscow means the price the Europeans are paying. Russian construction of two nuclear reactors at Tianwan in China's Jiangsu province, just north of Shanghai, is proceeding rapidly. The first two units began operating earlier this year. Mr Wen has also signed 10 co-operation agreements during his visit and has marked the completion of a cultural "Year of China" in Russia. Mr Putin assured Mr Wen that Russia's policy towards China would not change after he left office next March, when presidential elections are due. The leaders said relations between the countries had never been as good. The nations are increasingly co-ordinating their efforts within multilateral agencies including the UN, where they both want to curb Western moves to intervene on human rights grounds in countries mired in traumatic conflicts. And they are working closely in building up the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation, which includes most countries in Central Asia, into a powerful security and economic alliance. But rapidly growing trade is at the core of the links.

Source: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...5-2703,00.html

Russia, China Seal Power Agreements

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Zubkov attending the Russia-China economic forum that took place on Tuesday. Russia signed deals Tuesday to help China develop another uranium enrichment facility and to build two more nuclear reactors for a power station on China's eastern coast, nuclear officials said. State nuclear firm Tenex said it signed a deal to help China build a fourth gas centrifuge enrichment facility to produce low-enriched uranium suitable for use in civilian power stations. The Federal Atomic Energy Agency said its building contractor, Atomstroiexport, also signed a deal to build two more reactors at the Tianwan plant in Jiangsu province, where Russia finished building two reactors this year. "The Tianwan atomic station has become a glittering example of mutually beneficial cooperation between China and Russia in the sphere of nuclear energy," Atomstroiexport said in a statement. President Vladimir Putin, who rules the world's second-biggest oil exporter, says relations with China are at a historic high, and Chinese President Hu Jintao describes Putin as his "good friend." The agreement for the nuclear reactors at Tianwan is preliminary and does not set a time frame or price for the reactors, but it is potentially worth several billion dollars. Each Russian nuclear reactor is worth about $2 billion and takes about five years to build, but China could get a discount because Russia has already built two reactors there. The first 1-gigawatt reactor began commercial operation in May and the second in July. Russia also signed an agreement to set up another gas centrifuge enrichment facility with an annual capacity of 500,000 separative work units, or SWU, a Tenex spokesman said. An SWU is a unit of measurement of the effort needed to separate the U-235 and U-238 atoms in natural uranium in order to create a final product that is richer in U-235 atoms. Speaking at an economic forum of government and business representatives from the two countries Tuesday, Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov said Russia wanted to increase high-tech industry exports to China. Technology exports "constitute the narrowest area of Russian-Chinese cooperation," Zubkov said. The country's "share of Chinese markets can and must be bigger." Crude oil products accounted for 54 percent of $15.75 billion in Russian exports to China last year, according to the Economic Development and Trade Ministry. China is the fourth largest foreign trade partner after Germany, Netherlands and Italy. Russia is seeking to move from relying on oil and gas sales to making high-tech industries the nation's primary economic driver by 2020. Agreements totaling almost $3 billion will be signed during the forum, Economic Development and Trade Minister Elvira Nabiullina said. She did not provide details.

Source: http://www.moscowtimes.ru/stories/2007/11/07/041.html

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Is Armenia the only former Soviet Republic who's oligarchs are not Jooz? The next few months in Georgia will be interesting.

Armenian

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Georgian billionaire says will run for president

Georgian billionaire and opposition financier Badri Patarkatsishvili said on Saturday he would run for president in January's election despite being accused of plotting a coup. Patarkatsishvili is one of the highest profile opposition figures in Georgia, a former Soviet republic that is experiencing one of its worst political crises since a civil war in the early 1990s. "I have decided to participate in the presidential election," Patarkatsishvili said in an e-mailed statement. "Mr (President Mikhail) Saakashvili's regime has completely discredited itself in the eyes of the Georgian people who will never again entrust it its destiny." On Wednesday police fired tear gas and rubber bullets at anti-government protesters to drive them off the streets after six days of demonstrations. President Mikhail Saakashvili then imposed a state of emergency and accused Russia of destabilizing the country, charges Moscow denies. On Friday, the Prosecutor-General's office accused Patarkatsishvili of plotting a coup and sought to question him. The silver-haired mustachioed Patarkatsishvili is not in Georgia but is funding part of the former Soviet state's opposition movement which accuses Saakashvili of corruption and economic mismanagement. "My election slogan will be 'Georgia without Saakashvili is Georgia without Terror'," he wrote.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/newsO...88987920071110

In related news:

Badri Patarkatsishvili doesn't want "to be the only Georgian of Jewish ancestry who would defend the Russian democracy alone"

Tbilisi, 23 March 2006 (Media.ge - website) - Well-known Georgian businessman of xxxish ancestry, owner of Georgian TV station "Imedi" Badri Patarkatsishvili doesn't rule out the possibility of selling Russian publishing-house "Kommersant" if there is a good proposal. "If anyone offers me a sum that is much higher than the publishing-house's real market price I'll review that proposal as a businessman " Badri Patarkatsishvili told Russian news agency Interfax while commenting on the information about the possible selling of "Kommersant" that was disseminated by some Russian media outlets. Patarkatsishvili doesn't want "to be the only Georgian of xxxish ancestry who would defend the Russian democracy alone". According to him, at this stage his only objective is to increase the publishing-house's assets and he isn't currently involved in any negotiations about its selling. One month ago Russian tycoon Boris Berezovsky, who's wanted by Russian law enforcers, sold his assets including the publishing house's shares to his business partner Badri Patarkatsishvili. Patarkatsishvili was himself wanted by the Russian authorities in 2001; however, he had Georgian citizenship and found refuge in his homeland. The Georgian General Prosecutor Office refused to hand over Patarkatsishvili to the Russian law enforcers.

Source: http://www.caucaz.com/home_eng/depeches.php?idp=943

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Armenia and the EU: When economics trump politics

During the month of October, Armenian President Robert Kocharian has successively preserved his country's European orientation and good strategic relations with Russia. While these two “orientations” are usually seen as mutually exclusive in the post-Soviet space, Armenia's attendance at the Dushanbe CIS summit and Kocharian’s working visit to Brussels show Yerevan's determination to prove the theory wrong.

From October 5-7 Armenian President Kocharian attended the Dushanbe summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), where the gathering of former Soviet republics approved the organisation's new development concept. Following the CIS summit, Kocharian attended a related summit of the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), where Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that CSTO member countries will be able to purchase Russian arms at the same reduced prices available within Russia. A long-time active member in both post-Soviet organisations, Kocharian confirmed once again that Armenia remains a political and military ally of Russia.

Almost immediately following the Dushanbe summits, however, Kocharian left for Brussels for a four-day working visit with top European Union officials including Jose Manuel Barroso and Xavier Solana. European media has given the talks a positive assessment and Armenia was praised for the successful implementation of its commitments under the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) Action Plan.

What are these orientations about?

Armenia has never officially declared its intention to join the European Union (EU). However, “Eurointegration” remains one of the country's official priorities. Armenia’s EU orientation is a priori an economic imperative, rather than a political claim of an Armenian European identity. As a small country with few natural resources, Armenia has no other option for successful economic development than a liberal foreign trade regime. As a member of the CSTO, Armenia cannot use NATO as a sort of “gateway” to closer ties with the European Union the way some other CIS members, such as the Ukraine and Georgia, are attempting.

Thus, economic reforms are perhaps the only way for Armenia to achieve “Eurointegration”. And the EU has supported Yerevan's efforts, first within the Partnership and Co-operation Agreement (PCA) signed in 1999, then under the ENP Action Plan signed at the end of 2006. Both the EU and other Western donors in Armenia have always linked their support to Armenia to the success of its reforms, based on the premise that economic reforms go hand in hand with political ones and a free market economy will open the way for the country’s democratisation.

Unlike the EU, the CIS does not create any political or economic pre-conditions for its members. According to the Development Concept adopted at the Dushanbe summit, the CIS will focus mainly on the former Soviet countries' common problems, particularly migration. In addition, Armenia has never been a member of the Eurasian Economy Commonwealth (EurAsEC), the group of CIS members led and promoted by Russia with the goal of creating a Customs Union. The Eurasian Economy Commonwealth also held a summit in Dushanbe, and Armenia attended as an observer. Thus Armenia appears unwilling to commit to any economic obligations which are not compatible with EU requirements.

As a CSTO member, however, Armenia does co-operate with NATO, in the framework of an Individual Partnership Action Plan, which includes actions such as joint war games and efforts to ensure civilian control over the military. Russia co-operates with NATO in the same way, and maintains close military ties with Greece, Romania and others in an effort to reduce the chance of conflicts between the two military blocs.

The European path

Armenia's economy has improved since the mid-1990s, and now sends approximately 60 percent of its exports to the EU and other Western countries. Under pressure from the EU and the Council of Europe, the country has implemented a number of political reforms, including changes to the constitution in 2005 which marked a move towards restricting presidential powers and increasing the judiciary's independence. The actual implementation of the adopted legislation, however, remains problematic. President Kocharian, who has been in office since 1998, and the ruling Republican Party have often used authoritarian methods of rule, raising concerns both domestically and internationally. Armenia has continuously underperformed in decreasing corruption and securing freedom of speech and judicial independence.

Armenia's ENP Action Plan calls for the further elimination of trade barriers and Yerevan has declared its intention to reach a free trade agreement with the EU by 2010. Any such agreement is subject however to ENP conditions that Armenia implement European standards of production, a process which has been under way since the early 2000s. The ENP Action Plan also names the consolidation of judicial power and progress in fighting corruption as means for further improving the country's investment climate.

Kocharian’s recent official visit to Brussels and the EU-Armenia Co-operation Council's eighth meeting the following week in Luxembourg showed both partners' satisfaction with the progress thus far. In addition, during a visit to Yerevan on October 18, Steffen Reiche, head of the German Bundestag’s German-South Caucasus parliamentary group delegation, declared that among the three South Caucasus countries, Armenia has taken the lead in implementing its ENP Action Plan.

Trade: a remedy to diverging geopolitical orientations in the South Caucasus?

Armenia’s East-West orientation could be a factor in preventing possible tensions in the South Caucasus between Russia and the CIS and the EU, NATO and the CSTO. Recent developments in Armenian-Georgian relations also illustrate the importance of the trade factor in the region and the role it can play in appeasing geopolitical tensions. During his visit to Armenia on October 15-16, Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Nogaideli suggested creating a “joint investment space” in the two countries, and both governments have reportedly begun working on the project.

If the joint investment space were to become a reality, Armenia and Georgia would take the original step of jointly applying to foreign donors such as the World Bank to provide funding for joint projects. More importantly, the “common” or “joint” investment space is expected to attract investors interested in the larger market the project would form. The immediate direct outcome would be an increase in bilateral trade between Armenia and Georgia, which would benefit from projects in Armenia, particularly from Russian investors, who are scant in Georgia due to poor relations between Tbilisi and Moscow.

Georgia may also benefit from the growing Armenian Stock Exchange, which will be taken over by Stockholm-based OMX later this year with the aim of creating a regional capital market. The takeover is OMX's first investment in the CIS, although it operates the stock exchanges in Stockholm, Copenhagen, Helsinki, Reykjavik, Riga and Vilnius. Of course, Armenia will also benefit from investments in Georgia, whose reform-minded government has earned a great deal of praise and investment from the West.

Georgia, with its stated intention to join NATO and the EU, and with its relationship with Russia currently at a low point, can see some benefits in good relations with Armenia. The prospect of strengthened economic relations between Georgia and Armenia may spark hopes that the trade factor could help blur the geopolitical line that has begun to define the two countries' relations with the East and West.

Source: http://www.caucaz.com/home_eng/breve_contenu.php?id=330

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

As It Rises, Russia Stirs Baltic Fears

Revival Prosperity is evident, but Lithuanians worry about the motives behind Russian investment in their country

EVEN as Jonas Kronkaitis, now retired as Lithuania’s top general, admires the transformation of this once drab Soviet city into a proud member of the New Europe, a worry eats at him: Russian power is rapidly returning to the Baltics, only this time the weapons are oil and money, not tanks. General Kronkaitis has a unique perspective. He fled Lithuania to America as a boy in 1944, and served nearly 30 years in the United States Army before returning to command his newly independent country’s military in the 1990’s. He engineered its entry into NATO in 2004, thinking this would help cement security for the tiny Baltic nation. Now he says his hopeful view was wrong.

The signs of Russia’s resurgent influence are everywhere in Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia: in Kremlin-financed media; in the financing of local politicians and economic development; in a growing assertiveness, encouraged by Moscow, among the third of the Baltic population that is of Russian heritage; in the Kremlin’s manipulation of its energy supplies as a bludgeon. These tactics — especially the use of Russian cash — have evoked stress in the Baltics that was unthinkable even five years ago. “What we are afraid of is the very huge money that comes from Russia that can be used to corrupt our officials,” General Kronkaitis said in an interview. “And I’m talking about very large money. Money can then be used to control our government. Then Lithuania, in a very subtle way, over many years perhaps, becomes dominated and loses its independence.”

“Over many years” may be an understatement, Baltic nationalists say. In 2004, Lithuania’s president was impeached for alleged connections to Russia’s secret service and big business. It all seems part of a strategy by President Vladimir Putin to revive Russian power in much of Eastern Europe. For the Balts, any move that angers Russia runs huge risks. Last month, for example, the Estonian state prosecutor charged four ethnic Russians with organizing riots in April to protest the government’s move of a statue of a Soviet soldier from the capital to a suburb as the anniversary of victory in World War II neared. The Russian-language press had egged on the protesters.

“There is reason to believe that financial support and advice to organize mass disorders was also received from the Russian Federation,” the prosecutor said. After the riots, hackers briefly paralyzed Estonia’s government and banks, and Estonia said the cyberattacks were traced to Kremlin addresses. The tensions over the riots come as the Baltic countries are trying to challenge Russia’s energy monopoly. All three are resisting an ambitious Russian-German plan to build a pipeline under the Baltic Sea that would send gas directly from Russia to Western Europe — bypassing the Baltics and cutting them out of transit fees and access to the flow. Estonia has led this opposition, with a challenge on environmental grounds. Many Balts find it disheartening that the former German chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, sits on the board of the joint venture, in which Russians hold a 51 percent interest.

Gazprom, the Russian oil giant, already controls more than 35 percent of Baltic gas companies. Latvia has been cut off from an old Russian oil pipeline since 2003 and Lithuania since 2006, forcing them to import more expensive oil by ship. The Russians blame pipeline problems, but Latvians and Lithuanians don’t believe that; Estonia was shut off for several weeks after the spring riots. Any Baltic defiance of Russian pressure is made more emotional by their shared and bitter history. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania began the 20th century under Russia’s czars but gained independence after World War I.

Then, after the Hitler-Stalin nonaggression pact in 1939, Soviet troops swept in and Stalin deported hundreds of thousands of Balts to die in Siberian gulags. When Hitler’s troops marched through in turn, many Balts saw the Germans as liberators — and significant numbers collaborated with the Nazis to annihilate the region’s xxxs. After the war came an influx of Russian workers whose presence would, in time, be cited by the Soviets to claim that these states should never again get independence. For its part, the Putin government has campaigned for ethnic Russians to insist on attaining a stronger voice by accepting Baltic citizenship.

“In the Baltics, history is a ghost that still walks the streets in a very active way,” said Daina Eglitis of George Washington University. “It’s not just past, it’s present. But people have different readings on it.”

One example is a Vilnius tourist attraction, the torture chambers of the old K.G.B. headquarters, which had been Gestapo headquarters. It is now the Museum of Genocide Victims, but “genocide” applies only to what Russians did to Balts — not to what Nazis and their local collaborators did to xxxs. The museum all but ignores the Baltic people’s role in the Holocaust, an omission that angers not only xxxs, but also Russians, who view the Soviets as liberators and are now reasserting control over the historical record. For example, a new pan-Baltic Russian-language television station, financed by the Kremlin, often features documentaries that praise the Soviet Union.

About one-third of Lithuania’s television stations are already in Russian. “Russians buy our politicians, they buy our press, and they buy our minds — I think that’s all,” Indre Makaraityte, editor of Revival, an independent Lithuanian newspaper, said sarcastically. She organized a demonstration in May to support Estonia against the ethnic Russians’ protests and show solidarity with the West. But she says she was disheartened when European and American leaders took a week to condemn Russia after the riots.

“We became members of NATO and E.U. expecting we would be defended immediately,” she said. “There’s a fear of Russia, and a fear that we are again alone, not defended by our Western partners. They are too naïve in evaluating Russia.”

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/11/we...html?ref=world

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

The stupidity of some conservative news media sources have been breathtaking lately. There have been a rash of anti-Russian articles and news reports coming out of western capitols, particularly from London. Reading these news reports one gets the sense that: the Russian Federation is on the verge of total collapse; anarchy runs rampant in Russia; the population there is oppressed and miserable under the bloodthirsty tyranny of Vladimir Putin; the Russian military is in a dilapidated state and worthless as a modern fighting force; corrupt billionaires in Moscow are actively seeking to destroy democracies worldwide; and Russia is the most racist and antisemitic nation on earth...

Anyway, I really don't see what these articles accomplish other than making the editors of these news media outlets look like a bunch of mentally retarded buffoons. Nonetheless, the article below is the latest pathetic example of how desperate the West's political elite have become in the face the rapidly rising power and influence of Moscow.

Armenian

************************************************** **************

Russia will soon cease to be a world power

Flush with oil wealth and facing elections in the new year, Russia under President Vladimir Putin grows more assertive and belligerent by the day. Whether probing the RAF's air defences or running spying rings on British soil, the message is unmistakable – Russia is back as a major player on the world stage and it views Britain as a vital adversary. Why is this happening and should we be worried? Russia's economy is overwhelmingly dependent on oil and natural gas and the country's prosperity depends on international commodity prices. At present, global oil prices are pushing upwards towards $100 a barrel and Russia's national coffers are overflowing.

Hence Mr Putin has the resources to rebuild his threadbare armed forces. Less than 10 years ago, Russian finances were so parlous that the Kremlin was forced to default on its debts in 1998. Today, Mr Putin has amassed some of the biggest foreign exchange reserves in the world. Moreover, Mr Putin knows that a dose of assertive nationalism goes down well with the electorate - and presidential and parliamentary polls are due in March next year. Under the constitution, Mr Putin cannot serve a third term as president. He will get around this obstacle by becoming prime minister instead, while manoeuvring a loyal ally into the presidency. The centre of power in the Kremlin will shift from president to premier. The success of this plan hinges on Mr Putin retaining his standing among ordinary Russians. His popularity is the trump card. The more he can claim to have rebuilt Russia's national power, the better his chances of political survival.

Yet there is a deeper reason for Russia's noisy resurgence. Over the past two decades, the country has suffered humiliation after humiliation. The collapse of the Berlin Wall and of the Soviet Union itself brought about the end of Russia as a global superpower. Political chaos and economic collapse under President Boris Yeltsin's erratic rule in the 1990s left the Kremlin dependent on Western aid, particularly from the old enemy, America. Above all, Mr Putin wants to send an emphatic message that this disastrous era of national decline is over. He may well be wrong and this is why the West need not be unduly worried. Oil prices are liable to fall as well as rise. When they do take a tumble, Russia's economy will plunge with them.

Genuinely successful nations have innovative scientists, world-class universities and major companies turning out popular products. Russia has none of these assets. Instead, it has vast natural resources, and nothing else. World markets completely beyond Mr Putin's control decide the value of these commodities. Far from being a rising power able to decide its own destiny, the harsh truth is that Russia under Mr Putin depends on the whims of foreign oil traders. Bad times will almost certainly follow the present years of plenty. Russia's future looks disastrous. Emigration, alcohol abuse and the fact that its women have more abortions than live births brings down the national population each year. By 2050, there will be fewer than 100 million Russians, compared with 142 million today. Within decades, Russia will probably cease to carry any weight on the world stage.

Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...11/nspy311.xml

In related news:

British 'spy' arrested in Russian secrets plot

A former British soldier has been arrested on suspicion of spying for the Russian intelligence services, it can be disclosed today. Peter Hill, a former Territorial Army trooper in the Royal Armoured Corps, was detained under the Official Secrets Act, for allegedly attempting to sell classified military documents to the Russians. He was arrested following a Metropolitan Police "sting" in which an undercover officer was understood to have posed as a Kremlin agent. Hill, 23, described as an "opportunist", is understood to have been under surveillance for some time and was arrested in Leeds last Wednesday evening, within minutes of the alleged exchange taking place.

It is understood the alleged security breach was from a Government establishment and not from a commercial military supplier or manufacturer. The documents he is alleged to have tried to leak concern sensitive military information. The former trooper comes from Colne, in Lancashire but lives and works in Skipton, North Yorkshire, where a residential and business premises has been searched as part of the police operation. Hill, who is understood to have recently been working as a bailiff, was questioned at a police station in Leeds. He was also arrested under the Explosive Substances Act after the discovery of suspicious material during the searches.
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The material is understood to be related to his service with the Territorials and has nothing to do with his alleged spying. The Sunday Telegraph can reveal that MI5 now believes there are 30 intelligence officers working "under cover" in the Russian embassy who are trying to steal Britain's military and political secrets. A document, circulated to British military bases three weeks ago, states: "It is all too easy to overlook the threat from espionage that this country faces. The activity by the Russian Intelligence Services - External Intelligence Service (SVR) and the Military Intelligence Service (GRU) - is as extensive now as at any time during the Cold War.

"It is believed there are 30 intelligence officers working under cover in the Russian embassy, consulate and trade delegation. Rather than seeking intelligence on purely military hardware, they seek intelligence on a range of technologies as well as policy attitudes to the EU, Nato, G8, our allies as well as UK foreign policy."

Last night, Hill, of Lambert Street Skipton, was bailed by police over the spying allegations. Although the alleged offence took place in Leeds, the serious nature of the case meant the Scotland Yard-based Special Branch, a part of the Metropolitan Police, was involved. A spokesman for Scotland Yard said: "At approximately 8.10pm on November 7, officers from the Metropolitan Police arrested a man in his 20s at an address in Leeds under Section 1 of the Official Secrets Act 1911. The man was further arrested under Section 4 of the Explosive Substances Act 1883. Following an application to court for an extension of custody the man remains in custody at a Yorkshire police station."

Hill's lawyer Grahame Stowe, refused to comment, but confirmed he was representing a man who had been arrested under the Official Secrets Act. Referring to the activities of the Russians, the document sent to bases went on: "They are most likely to seek to make and build relationships. All contacts with citizens from countries where special security regulations apply are to be reported to G2 and 235 Military Intelligence Section." Jonathan Evans, the new head of MI5, warned just last week that the espionage threat posed by the Russian intelligence services was diverting valuable resources ways from the fight against Islamist terrorism.

Hill's page on the MySpace website says that he went to the acclaimed xxxxheroe Royal Grammar School, in Lancashire, before studying philosophy, politics and economics at Keele University. As a child, he attended Park Primary in Colne, and Park High School. Last night his mother Anne Browne, from her home in Keighley Road, Colne, said: "I don't know anything until we get more information." A Russian embassy spokesman said that he was unaware of the details surrounding the arrest. Hill is due to appear at Leeds magistrates' court tomorrow charged under Section 4 of the Explosive Substances Act 1883.

Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...11/nspy111.xml

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Withdrawal of Russian troops from Georgia to be completed by December

Russian Military Equipment Leaving Georgian Territory

Commander of the North Caucasian military district Gen. Alexander Baranov told the press on Saturday that the withdrawal of Russian troops and military hardware from Georgia will be completed on December 1. "Not a single Russian solider, nor a single kilo of materiel will remain in Georgia by December 1," he said. He reminded journalists that the withdrawal has been conducted since 2005. He said that 43 trains and 38 convoys pulled out over 1,500 units of equipment and vehicles and over 5,000 tonnes of property to Russia and Armenia from the bases in Batumi and Akhalkalaki. "The last train with weaponry and equipment [of the Russian army] will leave Georgia for Armenia on November 15," he said. Besides, six remaining facilities will be transferred to the Georgian side by the beginning of December, Baranov said.

Source: http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/politics/...issue=11904598