The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

The interesting choice of words by Putin will be ammunition for the "One World Order" conspiracy theorists.

Armenian

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Putin: Russia-China interaction helps build just world order

Relations between Russia and China have a strong impact on the formation of a just world order, Russian President Vladimir Putin said. "Russian-Chinese relations provide a vivid example of friendly and mutually beneficial cooperation, based on long-term, strategic interests. Russian-Chinese political, economic and humanitarian ties have been developing vigorously, bringing visible benefits to the Russian and Chinese peoples. Strong interaction between our two countries in the world arena is an important factor of building a just world order with due account taken of civilized political-economic diversity," Putin said in a message of greetings to Chinese President Hu Jintao, according to the Kremlin press service. "The success of the Year of China in Russia and the Year of Russia in China provides a vivid example of the two countries' shared wish to further develop mutual understanding and effective cooperation. The agreement you and I have reached to make the most successful events of the national years regular, will undoubtedly help deepen mutual trust and traditional friendship between our peoples," the Russian president said.

Source: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2...nt_6360345.htm

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russia completes North Caucasus border security facilities

Russia has completed a border security project ahead of time in the North Caucasus, Federal Security Service Director Nikolai Patrushev told President Vladmir Putin Saturday. Around 20 billion rubles (about 815 million U.S. dollars) has been spent on building 112 border security facilities under a federal border security program for 2003-2010, Patrushev was quoted by local news agencies as saying "Everything has been accomplished... Your instructions have been fulfiled," the security chief told Putin. North Caucasus, a poverty-stricken region, has frequently witnessed turbulence and violence and was described by Putin as "the most dangerous" region that posed the highest threat to the country. The president signed a decree on establishing a federal agency for border security in October 2007, which is responsible for the construction and modernization of all border security facilities, according to the report.

Source: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/20...nt_7340552.htm

Russia beefs up North Caucasus border

Russia has enhanced border security in the turbulent North Caucasus, the country's security chief Nikolai Patrushev told President Vladimir Putin on Saturday. Putin said earlier that to prepare itself for a visa-free regime with the European Union, Russia must ensure the security of its external borders, and guarantee European partners that the country is secure from outside terrorist and criminal elements. Putin previously described the North Caucasus as "the most dangerous" region that posed the highest threat to the country. Patrushev said around 20 billion rubles ($815 million) had been spent on building 112 border security facilities under a federal border security program for 2003-2010. "Everything has been accomplished... Your instructions have been fulfilled," Patrushev told the president. Putin signed a decree on setting up a federal agency dedicated to securing Russia's borders in October 2007. The agency will manage checkpoints and handle the construction and modernization of all border security facilities.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20071229/94783263.html

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Another political essay right out of my desk drawer, this time dating back to the year 2000. I believe that this report should be closely examined and pondered for it is a crucial key in understanding how Vladimir Putin wrestled power from the hands of the Russian Oligarchs soon after his accession to the Kremlin throne. We also see how the geopolitics of the region was being assessed by Moscow at the time. We also see the character and evolution of Russian-Iranian relations and Russian-Armenian alliance, which at the time was shaky to some extent. What's interesting here is that the political dynamics in Moscow as highlighted within the article reads eerily similar to what occurred within the United States in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. Whether it was elements within the Russian government that carried out the bloody terrorist attacks in Russia at the time or not, the end result was that Putin solidified his hold on government and enabled Russia to finally push itself back into the Caucasus region and onto the international political arena.

Armenian

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Russia In Growing Role Of Special Services "Caucasian Rhomb" Myth

NEZAVISIMAYA GAZETA, August 11, 2000

Terror acts in Moscow prompts political leaders in government and Communists alike to call for emergency powers to be given to special services and police. Moscow seeks to establish control over Trans-Caucasian republics as part of plan involving partnership with Iran. One of the consequences of the August 8 explosion in Moscow's Pushkin Square is the fact that Russian politicians are once again calling for expanded powers to be given to special services and law-enforcement bodies because they say otherwise these agencies will be unable to either investigate such crimes or make effective efforts to prevent them.

[...]

Even politicians who are not among Putin's loyal supporters have been talking in the same vain. Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov, for example, has said that the communist faction will support any tough measure to combat terrorism and organized crime. The paper notes in this connection that, according to Zyuganov, he held two hours of talks with the president on Wednesday, August 9. NEZAVISIMAYA GAZETA examines the idea of forming a "Caucasian Rhomb" with the aim of countering Washington's policy of extracting Trans-Caucasian republics, notable Azerbaijan, from the sphere of Russia's interests in the area. Basically, the plan provides for the formation of two hypothetical axis: Moscow-Yerevan-Tehran and Moscow-Baku-Tehran, incorporating strategic regional cooperation between Russia and Iran. The purpose of this partnership is to prevent US-Turkish infiltration of the region and end Western influence in the Trans-Caucasus republics. The key element of the structure is efforts to resolve the conflict over Nagorno-Karabagh, which largely determines relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan and between them and principal "regional" players.

Many analysts, however, are doubtful of the chances of the idea being implemented since it does not accurately reflect the geopolitical realities of "the Euro-Asian Balkans." To start with, Moscow and Tehran are engaged in separate games in the region and their interests do not always coincide. especially in the context of Iran's current efforts to activate its policies in the region. Curiously enough, several analysts in Washington feel that if Tehran consolidates its positions in the Trans-Caucasus (if only in small measure), this will benefit the United States in so far as Moscow's influence on the foreign policies of the countries of the region will be determined.

Secondly, it is doubtful that the Moscow-Yerevan-Tehran axis cold be established in view of Yerevan's declarations in favor of a "complementary" and balanced foreign policy. It is a fact that [Armenia] is greatly dependent on US financial and economic institutions, including the World Bank and the IMF. Moreover, Armenia's balanced approach enables it to pursue a most effective policy on the question of a Karabagh settlement as well as in international affairs. Characteristically, one of Yerevan's latest statements says "the scales of Armenian diplomacy could tip either towards Moscow or Washington, depending on how much a particular situation will conform to Armenia's interests." At the same time it should be recognized that the military-strategic alliance of Moscow and Yerevan and Armenian's regional partnership with Iran are quite stable and institutionalized. A cardinal change in this supra-regional balance may trigger a devastating geo-political earthquake or even a new war.

The formation of the Azeri component of "the Caucasian Rhomb" is an even less feasible task. Relations between Baku and Moscow on the one hand, and between Baku and Tehran, on the other, are in themselves more than problematic, and the emergency of a Russian-Azeri-Iranian triad seems to be altogether unreal. That course of events would mean the total collapse of Turkey's regional policy and the United States' complete ouster from the Caucasus and Central Asia. Yerevan is still Moscow's only geopolitical ally in the Caucasus. Most important in this respect are the military and political factors, with the two military departments maintaining close cooperation. Armenia is the only Trans-Caucasus country which does not have contacts with Turkey, that regional bulwark of the North Atlantic Alliance. It is obvious, however, that Moscow's long-term program provides for the establishment of dominant influences over the entire Trans-Caucasus, notable oil-rich Azerbaijan.

Source: http://www.pressdisplay.com/pressdisplay/viewer.aspx

[skhara]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

I had read an article (I think by Paul Klebnikov), that stated Berezovksy played a role in the terrorist attacks -- and that Putin and Berezovsky were pretty close associates at that time. Berezovsky actually used his media outlets to campaign for Putin's presidency.

[skhara]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Armenian,

Do you remember the name of the article from last year that deals the official b*tching delegation of xxxs, who were complaining to the Kremlin about Russian anti-tank weapons of Hezbollah; and the Russians snubbed them and thanked them for the free advertisement?

I know its posted here somewhere.

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Israel blames Russian rocket launchers for its setbacks in Lebanon

A Knocked out IDF Merkava Main Battle Tank in southern Lebanon

Hizbullah has, reportedly, already destroyed at least one armor division out of a total of seven that the IDF relies upon. These losses have jeopardized Israel’s blitzkrieg strategy and have lead the latter to limit its ground campaign to the pace of infantrymen. The Lebanese Resistance uses upscale Russian anti-tank rocket launchers that not only punch holes through Israeli Merkava, but also through US-made tanks. Viktor Litovkin analyses the growing argument between Tel-Aviv and Moscow.

Israeli Public Security Minister Avi Dichter and Defense Minister Amir Peretz said Hezbollah was using modern anti-tank weapons of Russian make, specifically the RPG-29 Vampirs with a tandem warhead. Such statements have perplexed Russian arms experts, but they agreed to talk with me if I did not mention their names. "As usually happens in war, either side can interpret our words in its favor, and we don’t want that. We are neutral, and do not want to be accused of bias," one of them said. The main point they made is this: the fact that Hezbollah militants are armed with RPG-29 hand held anti-tank grenade launchers does not mean that they received them from Syria, which acquired them in the course of military-technical cooperation with Moscow. A suspicion is not a fact. Facts must be proved by documented evidence, but there is none.

The fragments of projectiles and the tailpiece, which the Israelis have sent to us, do not provide any evidence of anything. They do indeed bear the letters of the Russian (Cyrillic) alphabet, but this is not enough for a complete examination. We have to look at the serial numbers of the weapons in order to determine where they were made, who sold them, and to whom. The experts explained that the RPG-29 Vampir with a tandem HEAT (high explosive anti-tank) PG-29V warhead was developed in the late 1980s when tanks acquired reactive armor. The Soviet army received them in 1989. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, these grenade launchers and their projectiles could be found in almost all the newly independent ex-communist nations. They were even produced in some of them. Trying to establish whose grenades are hitting Israeli tanks will be pure guesswork.

If a contract on arms supplies is official, or "white", it always mentions the end user. But apart from white contracts there are semi-official, or "grey", exports, and even "black", which are unofficial and illegal. Anyone from any country could sell RPG-29s to the Middle East, the Palestinians, Hezbollah, Hamas, or any other armed group. Elaborate set-ups could be used to do so. The experts did not name countries or companies, acting according to the innocent-until-proven-guilty principle, but many have already been proven guilty. Trials of illegal arms merchants have long ceased being a sensation. If senior officials have suspicions, or even make public accusations, they should back their statements with documents. Without facts this is idle talk and even political scheming.

The Russian-made RPG-29 anti-tank rocket launcher

The military experts observed that talk of "wrongful use of Russian weapons" starts whenever one of the sides has setbacks at the front lines. This is what the Americans did in Vietnam, and this is what they are doing in Iraq more than twenty years later, when they blame Russia for the fact that the militants are fighting with Russian arms. What other arms could they have if Iraqi leaders were getting them officially from the Soviet Union for almost 30 years? Now Israeli officials have followed suit. The experts said that in accusing Russia of indirect support for the other side, politicians fail to realize that they admit their helplessness and discredit their own weapons and combat hardware. The Merkava tank has always been considered invincible in Israel. The Israelis were proud of its design and its upgraded reactive armor. They claimed it was the best tank in the world. Tactically, the Israeli army has used it very skillfully in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Merkavas entered rural districts only when they were supported by helicopters, and had direct and stable communication with them.

But, apparently, there are not enough helicopters for tank support on Lebanese territory. The crew of any tank can see very little. They do not know what is happening on the sides or in the back. It is an easy target for any militant, who can hide in the bushes or behind a jamb. He does not need to attack a Merkava from the front, where it does indeed have excellent protection. He can hit it from the side, the rear, or the space between the running gear — any tank has many vulnerable spots. Perfect weapons simply do not exist. So why complain about a Russian grenade launcher? The experts thanked the Israeli ministers for the free promotion of Russian weapons, but repeated they had nothing to do with this. They observed that Israeli tanks were hit in Lebanon, not in Israel. Members of Hezbollah, no matter what emotions they may evoke, are mostly citizens of Lebanon, and have a lawful right to defend their land against the aggressor. At this point the experts said that they were reluctant to go into politics. They switched back to weapons, and added that Israel was not only using its own weapons.

The Merkava is an Israeli tank, but the M-113A1/A2 and M-577A2, on which Israeli soldiers drive into Lebanon, are of American make. The same applies to the following helicopters: the AH-1E/Bell-209, Chechnya-53D Stallion, UH-60 Blackhawk, S-70A, and assault AH-64 Apache. All their artillery — the AMRAAM, AIM-120B, AIM-95, and even the MLRS 227 multiple-launch rocket systems — were also made in the United States, not to mention assault aircraft, bombers, and fighters. The experts asked rhetorically: "Why blame anyone, if you are bombing a foreign country with foreign weapons?" I did not argue with them. As a journalist, I merely try to familiarize readers with an opinion, which is different from what some Israeli leaders do regarding the "participation" of Russia and its weapons in the bloody conflict in the Middle East.

Source: http://www.voltairenet.org/article143068.html

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Sales of Russian arms hit record levels

Russia exported a record $7 billion worth of weapons in 2007, making it one of the world's leading arms traders. And the State plans to increase this figure, injecting more money into the defence sector in the coming years. But in this business, success does not come without controversy. Russian arms remain world-class. Its air defence systems, planes and tanks are among the best in production. This year saw big contracts signed with countries such as India, Venezuela, Syria and China. Inventive pricing policies and personal lobbying by President Vladimir Putin have helped boost Russia's bottom line. But the basic appeal of Russian arms remains unchanged. The director of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (C.A.S.T.), Ruslan Pukhov, says Russian weapons sell because they work. “This is a weapon made to fight, to defend countries. This is not a weapon for parade purposes. It has the reputation of something simple and deadly,” Pukhov said.

Technological lag

Russia remains the world's second largest weapons supplier, behind the U.S. Exports have nearly doubled since 200, and 2007 also marks the sixth consecutive year of growth. But is the situation as rosy as it seems? “Russian arms exports will stay at this level for the next two or three years, but could then witness a dramatic fall, if Russia cannot solve its internal defence issues,” Pukhov said. While its current generation weapons are some of the best in the world, when it comers to Hi Tec innovation, it lags behind. The average age of employees in Russia's defence industry is more than fifty. That's old when it comes to a business that relies on cutting-edge technology.

Arms race?

Moscow has been criticised for selling weapons to regimes with questionable intentions. Some believe contracts with India and Syria contribute to arms races in unstable regions, and Washington has condemned Russia's arms links with Iran. In its defence, President Putin says Russia complies with all international regulations, and will respect any future embargoes. Analysts say if countries are intent on buying weapons, it makes sense for Moscow that they buy Russian. Foreign policy expert Aleksandr Pikaev says there it makes strategic sense. “People believe that if you sell arms to China you know better how your potential enemy is armed and therefore you would be better prepared for neutralising that threat,” Pikaev said. Russia is unlikely to abandon the strategy that has brought it to the summit of the world's arms trade. If the success is to continue, it has to both change itself, and pay attention to the changes in the world around it. Meantime, RT military analyst Evgeny Khruschev responded to criticism of Russia's choice of customers. To watch the interview follow the link.

Replacing aging arsenal

Tests of two intercontinental ballistic missiles intended to replace the country's aging rocket arsenal have been a success. The RS-24 missile was launched from Plesetsk in northern Russia and hit its designated targets in Kamchatka some 7,000 kilometres away. Later, a submarine in the Barents Sea also launched another missile hitting the test site in the same area. The highly developed technological weapon is capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads and is said to be able to penetrate any defence system. President Vladimir Putin has praised Russia's military for the successful tests. Speaking to the Defence Minister, Putin said the tests would help to bolster the nation's security. “This is a beautiful and festive firework, and it was thanks to hard work by military experts and civilian engineers. My congratulations to all of them, this is a serious step in strengthening Russia's defence capability,” the President said. The tests come amidst continued Russian opposition to US-plans to build a missile defensive system in Poland and the Czech Republic.

Source: http://www.russiatoday.ru/news/news/19017

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

War Over Karabakh

Azerbaijan prepares to fight for Nagorno-Karabakh. Will there be war? Lieutenant General Seiran Oganjan, commander of the Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army and Defense Minister of Nagorno-Karabakh, is the new Chief of the General Staff of the Armenian regular army. His appointment indicates that the government of Armenia is seriously upset by Azerbaijan's militant statements. Otherwise, it would hardly be necessary to transfer a combat general from a familiar region of potential hostilities to the capital of Armenia. Oganjan will be required to focus the Armenian military's "brain center" on planning specific measures to repel a potential attack, and improving combined troops management mechanisms for the Armenian Armed Forces and the Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army. Unfortunately, there is still no reassurance for Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh on that issue.

The newly appointed chief of the General Staff clearly understands what kind of losses may be incurred if forces of the Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army are withdrawn unilaterally from the "safety belt" territories and the defense system established in those territories is eliminated. Nevertheless, the view in Yerevan is that Armenia should be prepared to take this step since Nagorno-Karabakh talks have been under way for years but their outcome remains unpredictable. The current front-line configuration is optimal for Yerevan. The southern flank of the Artsakh front is covered by the Iranian border, the northern by the inaccessible Mrava mountain range. To the east, as far as the Araks, Armenian troops are manning a well-fortified border with several lines of defense. Harsh as it may sound, the border is fairly effective.

Azerbaijani military experts claim that almost 5,000 soldiers of the national army died there in episodes of violation of the Azerbaijani-Armenian cease-fire accord (signed in Bishkek on May 12, 1994) and of other causes (explosions of landmines, and so on). The death-toll was particularly heavy between 1995 and 2000 (over 2,000 servicemen and officers). Over 200 soldiers and officers of the Azerbaijani regular army died between 2000 and the present. If the territories of six districts captured by Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh war are returned to Azerbaijan, leaving only he Lachi corridor, the common front-line between the two Armenian states and Azerbaijan, including Nakhichevan, would increase by over 450 kilometers, to 1,100 kilometers. The length of the front-line between Artsakh and Azerbaijan would increase from 150 kilometers to 360 kilometers. What would this imply? In order to provide reliable cover for a substantially longer front-line, Armenia would have to mobilize substantial resources - both human and financial resources. There is a fairly high risk that the Nagorno-Karabakh territories may be returned to Azerbaijan's jurisdiction by force. Several possible scenarios have been considered. The opinion of Azerbaijani military expert Uzeir Jafarov reflects the mood of a large group of Azerbaijani politicians. "If the order to liberate Nagorno-Karabakh by force of arms is issued tomorrow, I don't think it would be too difficult," Jafarov said. "Funding for our Armed Forces in 2007 is equivalent to $1.1 billion, and we should consider how all this money can be spent in a rational way."

Indeed, Azerbaijan's militarization is proceeding at a rapid rate. Azerbaijan has started intensive purchases of long-range rocket and artillery systems. In recent years, it has purchased 12 Smerch multiple rocket launcher systems from the Ukraine. With a range of up to 70 kilometers, these systems can be fired from far in the rear to strike across large areas. In 2002, Azerbaijan purchased 36 M-46 130-mm artillery pieces from Bulgaria. The Ukraine supplied 72 MT-12 100-mm anti-tank weapons, and Georgia supplied six SU-25 ground-strafers in the same year. On March 29, 2007, the Azerbaijani Air Force tested the MIG-29s supplied by the Ukraine. Azerbaijani experts say that the United States has modernized seven military airfields in Azerbaijan. Some T-72 tanks have been purchased from Slovakia and the Ukraine. In 2005, Belarus officially announced the sale of nineteen T-72s to Azerbaijan. If the hostilities move into the mountain areas, this would mean an enhanced role for mortars which are very effective in this terrain. Azerbaijan is striving to build up superiority in these weapons as well. It has bought Nona systems which may be used as howitzers and mortars with a vertical alignment angle of up to 80 degrees.

According to the Stockholm International Institute for Strategic Studies, Azerbaijan currently has 26 Nona systems. Azerbaijan makes multiple rocket launchers and ordnances for them, as well as mortars and some munitions. Certain difficulties are encountered with the repair facilities for armored vehicles. What facilities existed in Soviet Azerbaijan failed to last for long. Azerbaijan has been compelled to enlist the services of the former Russian 142nd Repair Plant of the former Caucasus Military District in Tbilisi or send its armored vehicles for repairs in the Ukraine since the Nagorno-Karabakh war. As a matter of fact, the situation is some other sectors of the military industry is similar. Strictly speaking, the republic cannot expect to develop the ability to produce or repair sophisticated and complicated military hardware in the foreseeable future. For obvious reasons, official data on the military hardware balance between opposing sides in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict area cannot reflect the true picture. According to independent sources, however, the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan have a total of 95,000 personnel: 85,000 in the Ground Forces, 8,000 in the Air Force and Antiaircraft Forces and 2,000 in the Navy. Azerbaijan also has a National Guard (2,500 men), Interior Ministry police troops (12,000), and Border Guards (5,000).

The Ground Forces have 292 tanks, 706 armored vehicles, 405 artillery pieces and mortars, 75 BM-21 multiple rocket launcher systems, and 370 anti-tank rocket launchers. The Air Force has 61 combat aircraft and 46 auxiliary aircraft and helicopters. Its main airbases are at Kyurdamir, Zeinalabdin (equipped with a NATO air traffic monitoring system), Dallyar, Gyandzha, and Kala. The Antiaircraft Forces include four air defense brigades, one air defense regiment, and two separate radar battalions. They are equipped with S-200, S-125, S-75 (35 launchers), Krug, and Osa air defense complexes. The Azerbaijani Navy has a brigade of surface combatants (a division of patrol ships, a division of landing ships, a division of minesweepers, a division of the search and rescue services, a division of training vessels), a territorial waters security brigade, a marines battalion, an intelligence and special assignment center, and coast guard units. The Navy has a total of 14 warships and patrol boats and 22 auxiliary vessels but not all of them are serviceable at present due to various technical problems and a shortage of experienced specialists.

How do the Armenian Armed Forces compare? They have a total of 53,500 personnel (56,000, according to other estimates) including nearly 45,000 men in the Ground Forces, approximately 3,900 in the Antiaircraft Forces, and up to 700 in the Air Force. The Armenian Ground Forces have eight operational-tactical rocket launchers, 198 T-72 tanks, 338 armored personnel carrier and infantry fighting vehicles, 360 field artillery pieces, mortars, and multiple rocket launcher systems, around 160 100-mm guns for firing on ground targets, 55 air defense launcher systems (S-75s, S-125s, Krugs, Osas), and two divisions of S-300 antiaircraft complexes. The Air Force has seven aircraft (six SU-25s and a MIG-25), 12 combat helicopters (seven MI-24s, thee MI-24Ks, and two MI-24Rs), and 26 auxiliary aircraft (two L-39s, 16 MI-2s, and eight MI-8MTs).

Like the Armenian Armed Forces, the Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army is well-trained and well-equipped. It has between 18,500 and 20,000 officers and soldiers with 220,000 to 30,000 reserve personnel for mobilization. The Ground Forces have up to 16,000 men across eight defense districts. According to various sources, the Ground Forces have between 177 and 316 tanks, between 256 and 324 armored vehicle, 219 to 322 artillery pieces and mortars including up to 26 BM-21 multiple rocket launcher systems. The Air Force has up to 250 personnel with two SU-25s, four MI-24s, and up to five other helicopters. The Antiaircraft Forces are based on air defense weapons transferred from Armenia. The air defense center in Stepanakert has one S-125 system, four Krug launchers, eight OSA-AK systems, and four mobile ZSU-23-4 antiaircraft guns.

Defense experts say that even though the armed forces of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh are smaller than the Azerbaijani Armed Forces, they are more combat-capable. This is particularly applicable to the Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army which is relatively mobile and compact and whose officers have combat experience. By mobilizing 100% of Nagorno-Karabakh war veterans, it can operate as small autonomous units in mountain terrain. Speaking at John Hopkins University in Washington, US Council on Foreign Relations analyst Wayne Merry noted that Azerbaijan cannot win even though military options for resolving the conflict are being discussed openly in Azerbaijan. He is of the opinion that Nagorno-Karabakh is an impregnable fortress, further strengthened by Armenian forces and that even the US Army would have difficulty attacking this fortress. According to the analyst, this is also the prevalent view in the Pentagon. Azerbaijan in the meantime takes an entirely different view of the situation. Zahir Oruj, a member of the Defense and Security Committee of the republican parliament, says, "Armenia can only be superior to us in the capacities it gains from bilateral military agreements with Russia and participation in the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization. For all other parameters and resources, Azerbaijan is superior to Armenia, at least in military terms."

Hostilities could resume in several ways. In almost every scenario, they would be started either by Azerbaijan or by dubious international structures that specialize in the promotion of the West's interests in this region (such as the International Crisis Group). The most immediately relevant scenario could involve the United States attacking Iran, and Azerbaijan taking advantage of the chaos to make an attempt at sorting out the Nagorno-Karabakh problem once and for all. However, Azerbaijan could hardly expect substantial military support in these circumstances from either the United States (it would be too busy elsewhere) or Turkey (which might confine its participation in the conflict to sending volunteers). All of the above leads to the following conclusion: Azerbaijan is unlikely to succeed with a blitzkrieg in the immediate future. The time factor will be decisive in this situation as it is in most modern conflicts. Moreover, if hostilities do break out, Russia's political obligations would come into effect: Armenia is an ally within the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization. Consequently, Moscow is likely to make every effort to see that this conflict is resolved by diplomatic or other means.

Source: Voyenno-Promyshlenny Kurier, No 25, July 4 - 10, 2007, p.3

[crusader1492]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

I was suprised to hear about the thousands of Azeri deaths post cease-fire.
It is much more than the official numbers. This demonstrates the dishonesty of Azeri government.

Imagine the number of Azeri deaths if they start another war...the number would go up exponentially.

No wonder their moral is in the toilet.

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

I had read an article (I think by Paul Klebnikov), that stated Berezovksy played a role in the terrorist attacks -- and that Putin and Berezovsky were pretty close associates at that time. Berezovsky actually used his media outlets to campaign for Putin's presidency.

First, don't believe everything you read. Let me rephrase that. Read 'everything' that is relevant to a given topic and then juxtapose it to real world events and developments that you can observe. Second, use your objectivity and educated sense of reason. Third, everyone beats their own drums, so train yourself to read between the lines. Having said that, what you claimed is not all that unbelievable. I believe even Lugovoi, the suspected assassin of the former FSB agent turned British spy Litvinenko, was a member of Berezovsky's bodyguards. So, it would make sense that an important figure in Russia like Putin and the unofficial ruler of Russia, Berezovsky's, would have their paths crossed. The truth of the matter is that Russian nationalists, especially those within the interior ministry/FSB, were plotting the overthrow of the oligarchs and their drunk puppet, Yeltsin.