The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

[Angessa]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

This is not about Russia but I find it interesting enough to post.

[ Meltdown in US finance system pummels stock market

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080915/ap_on_bi_ge/financial_meltdown

"The upheaval in the American financial system sent shock waves through the stock market Monday, producing the worst day on Wall Street in seven years as investors digested the failure of one of its most venerable banks and wondered which domino would be next to fall."

[vic_k]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Since you are originally from Ukraine, can you please elaborate more on this subject?
Thank you and welcome to our forum.

I was born in RSFSR. Still, I follow the politics of Ukraine quite closely, and I will share my opinion about it with you later (it`s 8:30 here and I`m going to work now)

[ZORAVAR]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations



He chews on his next move: http://rutube.ru/tracks/929140.html?...011cc442e95892

[ZORAVAR]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

I don't know if this video has already been posted here. Very appropriate.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRHLQ077qkQ&feature=related

[skhara]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Very appropriate.

Appropriate for what? I don't like this video.

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

As some of you may recall, I had revealed from Yerevan on August 12 that one or two days prior to that date a successful military operation was carried out by Armenian forces against a strategic Azeri position in the Martakert region of Nagorno Karabagh. Here is the post: http://forum.armenianclub.com/showpo...postcount=2231

As you also know, for some reason, the military operation in question was not reported on by any of the news agencies.

Well, I met with a friend today that was recently in Armenia. While we were talking about the current political climate in the Caucasus he said to me that during the first few days of the Russian-Georgian war Armenian military units in Nagorno Karabagh attacked Azeri positions in the northern Mardakert region killing dozens of Azeri servicemen and liberated approximately 20,000 hectars of land. I had not told him that I already knew of the military operation he was referring to, although I had no idea that 20,000 hectars of land was liberated (note: I knew about the military operation through the mother of a young soldier actually involved in the operation). I said to him - this was not reported in the news, how do you know this information? He said he was made aware of this information through a high ranking military officer he knows through his wife in Yerevan. I asked him why did Yerevan/Stepanakert take such a major risk and why was it not reported by any of the news agencies.

He said, the military operation brought Armenian forces within easy striking distance of major gas/oil pipelines in Azerbaijan. He also said, the military operation was most likely carried with the knowledge and approval of Russian military officials and Baku chose not reveal this incident in any of their press releases because of the political sensitivity of the situation and because they knew Moscow was behind it. According to the military officer my friend had spoken to, this operation was carried out to finally convince Baku and Ankara that the situation on the ground in the Caucasus had been drastically altered and serious political changes would have to be made as a result. One of the changes, according to him, will be the expulsion of the US/EU interests from the Caucasus and the other would be the opening of borders between Armenia and Turkey. Apparently, Moscow has big plans for the Caucasus region and Armenia plays a key role in it.

I firmly believe now that this military operation did take place and a certain segment of Mardakert was liberated during the course of the Russo-Georgian war. As far as how many Azeris were killed (they are saying over a hundred) or how many square kilometers of land was liberated (they are saying 20,000 hectars of land) I am not yet a 100% sure. What's more, note my comments to the Stratfor report below. Apparently, Baku briefly flirted with the idea of attacking Nagorno Karabagh when Georgia first launched its invasion of South Ossetia and that was when Armenians struck in Mardakert! Was it a preemptive first strike by Armenia? Was the operation requested by Moscow as a warning to Baku? Whatever the case may have been, Baku remained silent. Also notice in the same report how close the region's oil/gas pipelines run to the north eastern section of Nagorno Karabagh.

This very interesting geopolitical analysis by Stratfor states that when Tbilisi commenced its invasion of South Ossetia officials in Baku feeling emboldened by Tbilisi's actions were seriously considering invading Nagorno Karabagh... If some of you recall, I had revealed from Yerevan on August 12 that couple of days prior to the date a successful military operation was carried out by Armenian forces against a strategic Azeri position in the Mardakert region of Nagorno Karabagh. Here is the post: http://forum.armenianclub.com/showpo...postcount=2231 For some reason, the Armenian military operation was not reported on by any of the news agencies. Now having read this article, if I were to speculate, I would say that Yerevan was informed of Baku's hostile intentions (most probably by Russian intelligence) and decided to carryout a preemptive military strike on Azeri positions to diffuse the situation. Consequently, with Russia's quick and stunning victory over Georgia, coupled with Yerevan's bold action in Mardakert, Baku, fearing a political disaster, abandoned their hostile intentions and decided not to respond to the Armenian incursion. Thus, it may not have been in the best interest of Baku to report on the military operation in question. Just my speculation, for what it's worth...

Armenian

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Azerbaijan: The Stark New Energy Landscape

Summary

Russia’s military defeat of Georgia puts Azerbaijan in a difficult position. With all of its existing energy export routes now back under Russian control, Baku faces a stark set of choices that may force it to reach an accommodation with Moscow.

Analysis

Azerbaijan is losing some $50 million to $70 million per day due to the closure of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, the Caspian Energy Alliance said Aug. 14, adding that Baku’s total losses from the closure amounted to some $500 million. The 1 million barrel per day (bpd) BTC line, which passes from Azerbaijan to Turkey via Georgia, was shut down Aug. 6 following an attack on the Turkish part of the line, claimed by a Kurdish separatist group. If not for that attack, however, it might well have been shut down anyway amid the military conflict in Georgia that began two days later. Azerbaijan exports oil and natural gas to Western energy markets via three pipelines — all of which pass through Georgia, and all of which experienced cutoffs in the past several days. Two of them — the BTC and the 150,000 bpd Baku-Supsa — carry oil. The Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum line carries natural gas at 9 billion cubic meters per year. The pipelines were built to provide a transport route for Caspian Sea energy to reach Western markets without having to pass through Russia, which controls the majority of pipeline infrastructure into Europe. Now that Russia has established a firm military presence in Georgia, however, it is highly likely that all three lines will continue to operate, or not, at the pleasure of the Kremlin. This puts Azerbaijan in a predicament. With its export routes to the West blocked by the Russian presence in Georgia, Baku is carefully considering its options. Though other potential pipeline routes exist, they are plagued with problems that could prove insurmountable. Azerbaijan may have no real option but to try to reach some sort of accommodation with Moscow.

Initially, Baku was excited by the conflict in Georgia’s South Ossetia region because it provided a possible blueprint for dealing with Azerbaijan’s own restive separatist enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh — and for potentially imposing a new military reality on Baku’s regional rival, Armenia. If successful, such a campaign could have allowed Baku to use Armenian territory for a new energy export route. Sources tell Stratfor that, following the Georgian military’s Aug. 8 invasion of South Ossetia, Azerbaijan’s leadership convened an emergency meeting at which they reportedly gave serious consideration to invading Nagorno-Karabakh, contingent on the eventual success of the Georgian operation. However, the Georgian offensive not only failed, it resulted in the Russian invasion of Georgia proper — which has effectively suspended Tbilisi’s ability to control its own territory. Russia also used air bases in Armenia to assist in the Georgian intervention, which marked a significant change in the dynamic between Baku and Yerevan. Russia keeps military assets in both Azerbaijan and Armenia, and sells weapons to both — indeed, part of Moscow’s strategy in the Caucasus is to ensure that the two rivals remain distracted by their tense relations — but from Baku’s perspective, the Russian decision to activate its assets in Armenia means Moscow is choosing sides.

However possible it might have been for Azerbaijan to invade its neighbor, it has suddenly become inconceivable. For Baku, this is the worst-case scenario. Its energy lifelines, intended to circumvent Russian territory, are now under the overt control of the Kremlin, while its alternative of forcing a new path through Armenia is completely taken out. Baku also suddenly found itself trying to block the flood of Azeri volunteers heading to Georgia to fight the invading Russians. Azerbaijan’s government did not want to provoke Russia, especially with Russian tanks only a couple of hundred miles from Baku itself. For that matter, with a presidential election set for Oct. 15, Azeri President Ilham Aliyev does not want a security crisis on his hands. Even though Azerbaijan has been using its energy revenues to build up its military in recent years, it is nowhere near ready to defend itself from a Russian invasion. Its security situation is in many ways even more dire than that of Georgia (or even Ukraine).

Turkey, Baku’s strongest ally in the region, theoretically would not stand by if Russia invaded Azerbaijan — but then, Ankara has been silent on the Russian intervention in Georgia. To the Azeris, this is a sign that they cannot depend on the Turks to commit themselves to a fight with Moscow if push should come to shove. Also, now that Georgia is under effective Russian military control, the only route for Turkish aid to Azerbaijan is cut off — neither Iran nor Armenia would provide passage. With the Russians in control of Georgia and with domination of Armenia out of the picture, Azerbaijan’s only other feasible export route would be southward through Iran, hooking into existing Turkish pipeline infrastructure or sending exports out via the Persian Gulf. The problem with this option is one of timing: Any move into Iran would have to wait for an accommodation between Tehran and the United States over Iraq, which appears to be getting ever nearer. At $50 million in losses per day, however, Azerbaijan does not have the time to wait for these pieces to fall into place and then build a new pipeline into Iran. A Russian move to cut off all three pipelines going through Georgia would make the cost unbearable. Baku counts on its energy export revenues in order to maintain military parity with Armenia, so a sharp drop in funding could quickly become a national security issue. That leaves one other option, which from Baku’s perspective is the least desirable but the most realistic: seeking accommodation with Russia.

Russia now effectively controls the entire already-built energy transport infrastructure between Baku and Western markets. Russia could accommodate transport of Azeri energy through Georgia for the right price. That price would be both financial and political: Azerbaijan would need to align with Moscow on matters of import in order to keep the pipelines open. Baku also could ship its natural gas through Russia proper via pipelines such as Baku-Rostov-on-Don, which used to provide Azerbaijan with natural gas supplies before it became a net exporter. There also is the Baku-Novorossiysk oil pipeline, which has a capacity of nearly 200,000 bpd, although very little Azeri crude normally goes through it. Azerbaijan has tried to avoid shipping its energy exports through Russian pipelines while other feasible options were open. But Baku may have to reconsider now that Russia holds all the cards.

Source: http://www.stratfor.com/analysisazer...ergy_landscape

This was the official Azeri reaction when Tbilisi first began their invasion of Ossetia.

Baku: Georgia proved that Azerbaijan "has the right to return its land by use of force"

Georgia has proved that peaceful talks is not the only way to restore territorial integrity, says a statement issued by the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry on the recent development in the Georgian-Ossetian conflict zone. It means that Azerbaijan "has the right to return its lands by use of force, the statement says, Bakililar.az reports.

Source: http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=26850

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

As the US financial system heads headlong towards a total collapse, Russian strategic bombers will be patrolling the Caribbean and setting up base in the Mediterranean; truly signs of the times...

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Russian strategic bombers patrol Caribbean

Two Russian Tu-160 Blackjack strategic bombers that landed in Venezuela last week will carry out a patrol mission over the Caribbean on Monday, a Russian Air Force spokesman said. The bombers landed at Venezuela's Libertador airfield on September 10 and were accompanied by NATO fighters during the 13-hour flight from their home base in central Russia. "The current patrol mission will be conducted over neutral waters in the Caribbean," Lt. Col. Vladimir Drik said. "The aircraft will take off from Libertador airbase and spend about six hours in the air." The Tu-160 Blackjack is a supersonic, variable-geometry heavy bomber (INFOgraphics , VIDEO), designed to strike strategic targets with nuclear and conventional weapons deep in continental theaters of operation. According to the spokesman, the bombers are carrying dummy missiles without warheads and will practice patrol sorties in a tropical climate. Following the training mission, the Tu-160 crews will meet with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez on Tuesday. "The meeting will take place on September 16 at the invitation of the Venezuelan president," Drik said. The spokesman added that the bombers will return to their home base in southern Russia on September 19. "The aircraft will take off from an airfield near Caracas on September 18 and conduct a 15-hour return flight to Russia. Their landing at a base in Engels [Saratov Region] is scheduled for September 19," Drik said. Earlier reports indicated that the bombers had been scheduled to return home on September 15.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080915/116799837.html

U.S. Fleet to Watch Russia’s Bombers

The U.S. Navy’s Fourth Fleet commander said they are keeping an eye on Russia’s Tu-160 bombers that landed in Venezuela September 10, The Associated Press reported. “We’re always going to be careful about who’s out there and what could potentially be a threat,” the U.S. Navy’s Fourth Fleet Commander Rear Adm. Joseph Kernan told The AP aboard of Kearsarge combat ship of the United States. The arrival of Russia’s bombers hasn’t affected the plans of the Fourth Fleet, Kernan made clear. “In my mind if the Russians flew those aircraft down to this region because of a threat from the U.S., they I think they wasted gas.” The Fourth Fleet of the United States that watches the Caribbean basin and South America has been revived this year despite the apprehension of Brazil and Venezuela. Its official mission is participation in the anti-drug operations and humanitarian actions. Russia’s two strategic bombers landed in Venezuela’s Libertador aerodrome late Wednesday to practice above the neutral water for the next few days. The plans are that Tu-160s that carry dummy missiles will fly over the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. Russia and Venezuela will hold joint exercise in the Atlantic Ocean in November. Moscow will be represented by ships of the North Fleet headed by atomic cruiser Pyotr Veliky (Peter the Great). The exercise had been planned for a year, but the final decision was made in July, during the meeting of presidents of Russia and Venezuela.

Source: http://www.kommersant.com/p-13206/Tu-160_U.S._Navy/

Russia eyes Mediterranean as alternative to Sevastopol naval base

Russia could build up its presence in the Mediterranean to make up for the loss of its naval base in Ukraine's port of Sevastopol, a Black Sea Fleet official said on Monday. "Undoubtedly, the withdrawal [of the Black Sea Fleet] from the Crimea will affect Russia's security in the south. New bases in the Mediterranean Sea could make up for the departure," Rear Admiral Andrei Baranov said without elaborating. Russia is set to leave the Sevastopol base when the current lease agreement expires in 2017. The base has been a source of friction between Russia and Ukraine in recent years, as Ukraine's pro-Western President Viktor Yushchenko has sought NATO and EU membership for the country. Russia has accused Kiev of 'unfriendly' policies toward the Black Sea Fleet base. Yushchenko has called for the Russian navy's early pullout, tougher deployment requirements and higher fees, demands that have not been backed by his former coalition ally, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. Russia-Ukraine tensions heightened after several Black Sea Fleet warships dropped anchor off the Georgian coast during and after the armed conflict with Tbilisi over breakaway South Ossetia last month. Russia's naval base in the Crimea currently has 50 warships and patrol boats, along with around 80 aircraft, and employs coastal defense troops. The Soviet-era Navy maintenance site in Syria named Tartus is the only Russian foothold in the Mediterranean. Russian media reports earlier said the facility could be turned into a base. About 10 Russian warships and three floating piers are reported to be currently deployed there, and Russia is expanding the port and building a pier in nearby El-Latakia. No official confirmation of the reports has been made. Baranov said Black Sea Fleet and NATO commanders will continue cooperation in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. "I do not see why our relations with NATO should end over last month's events," Baranov, said referring to Russia's response to Georgia's offensive to retake South Ossetia in early August. Western nations criticized Russia's counterattack as excessive and condemned Moscow's subsequent recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states. Russia and NATO have since frozen cooperation. Russia has blamed Western powers for encouraging Tbilisi's aggression and criticized the alliance for building up forces in the Black Sea and helping Georgia to re-arm in the conflict zone. Baranov said Russia is meanwhile building up its Black Sea Fleet: "We are learning the lessons of the naval operation to force Georgia to peace" He said a gunship and a minesweeper have been supplied to the fleet, and new torpedo boats and air defense systems are undergoing tests.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080915/116801633.html

In related news:

Russia's Baltic Fleet starts week-long exercise

Russia's Baltic Fleet has launched a week-long scheduled exercise, the navy press service said on Monday. It said the exercise, which will last through September 22, involves over 20 warships and more than 10 support and auxiliary vessels, as well as 15 fixed and rotary winged aircraft. "The exercise is aimed at honing the battle skills of naval, air force, air-defense and coast guard units," the press service said. It added that the exercise would involve missile test launches on coastal and aerial targets, precision bombing, artillery and other drills. The exercise is under the general supervision and command of Vice Admiral Viktor Mardusin, commander of the Baltic Fleet.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080915/116813333.html

[Armanen]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

I consider myself a patriot of Russia, yes.
Although it upsets me that Russia is probably going to smash Ukraine (not in war, but through economic means), but I have to admit that stipid leaders of Ukraine had it coming...

Well I'm sure that you realize the government in kiev does not represent the will of the people of ukraine.

BTW: Would you like to see a union between Russia, Belarus and Ukraine?

[yerazhishda]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

BTW: Would you like to see a union between Russia, Belarus and Ukraine?

Armanen, there's talk of that??? Are there any articles about it that you know of? I guess it would make sense because they all share similar culture, language and economic interests.

[yerazhishda]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

As the US financial system heads headlong towards a total collapse, Russian strategic bombers will be patrolling the Caribbean and setting up base in the Mediterranean; truly signs of the times...

Armenian, how bad do you think the US economy is going to get? Is it going to be another Great Depression or maybe the US will fall like the USSR altogether? I am interested to hear your opinion or any articles because I haven't really found any good articles dealing with America's future.