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Re: Armenian-Turkish Relations
A prosperous Armenia is not within the long term interest of the Turkish nation - simply because we Armenians want lands and reparations. No self-respecting Turk is going to give away strategic lands to us Armenians. Trust me on that. Moreover, the Turks will not give us reparations because it would ruin their already small bank accounts. Moreover, giving us lands or reparations is a Pandora's box for them. Once they do it for us, it will be Assyrians, Kurds and Greeks, Cypriots lining up.
However, the biggest fear Armenian nationalists have is the massive economic and demographic size of Turkey. Theoretically, if the Republic of Armenia engages in open trade, and all is civil between us and the Turks, there is a great danger that the Republic of Armenia, as small and as isolated as it is, will become desperately dependent on Turkey for survival. This is the biggest long term fear that Armenia has with regards to open trade with Turkey.
I personally feel that we can not have official relations with Turkey as long as we have national demands. And, as far as I am concerned, the Armenian diaspora has demands and, as a matter of fact, the Armenian Republic has demands as well, although for diplomatic reasons they will not discuss it. Moreover, I really don't see any substantial benefit in having open borders with Turkey. Turkey produces cheap goods, nothing else. Armenia needs to concentrate on better relations with Iran, Russia and the EU. At least there we know that our existence is actually within their national interests.
The Turkish border is the longest, therefore, simplest, cheapest and quickest route for transporting goods. The Georgian border is short, risky, unstable and under-developed. The Iranian border is tiny and Iran has serious long-term geo-political problems. Under these circumstances, the worst thing that can happen to Armenia is to have open borders and normal relations with Turks. Economically Turks can overwhelm us within a very short period of time. And once your main source of income is placed within the hands of the enemy - kiss your vor, and your national interests, goodbye. I am surprised more Armenians have not been able to see the long term risks in all this. However, I suspect that many serious political organization within Armenia and the Diaspora, especially the ARF, do see the long term risks with having open borders with Turkey.
It is very troubling that we Armenians have simply forgotten that Turkey was ready to invade Armenia in 1993. This was in '1993' not in 1905 or 1918 or 1921. This was in modern times. You know, the modern 'civilized' Turk. Rest assured, power-brokers in Turkey hate us and they fear us they would love for us to simply disappear. If is was not for the South Caucasus command of the Russian Army, Yerevan today would have been an occupied Armenian city as well.
In short: Armenia today serves the geo-political interest of Iran and Russia and to a lesser extent the European Union. However, Armenia does not serve the long term interest of Turkey and obviously, Azerbaijan. And that is why we can't have any real close relations with Turks. Simply put, a prosperous Armenia is not in their long term interest. As far as Americans are concerned, they are there today, and gone tomorrow - when their 'interests' disappear. When it comes to Armenan issues, we obviously can't trust Washington DC.
We Armenians need to concentrate on building closer economic and political relations with Russians, Iranians, the EU and the Arab world. Let's hope the winds of war in Iran passes soon. Let's hope Georgia gets run-over by Russia. Let's hope the Turkish border remains closed. Armenian will do well looking north and south. As a matter of fact, much to the disappointment of Ankara and Washington DC, the Armenian economy has been doing relatively well despite the Turkic blockade.
A prosperous Armenia is not within the long term interest of the Turkish nation - simply because we Armenians want lands and reparations. No self-respecting Turk is going to give away strategic lands to us Armenians. Trust me on that. Moreover, the Turks will not give us reparations because it would ruin their already small bank accounts. Moreover, giving us lands or reparations is a Pandora's box for them. Once they do it for us, it will be Assyrians, Kurds and Greeks, Cypriots lining up.
However, the biggest fear Armenian nationalists have is the massive economic and demographic size of Turkey. Theoretically, if the Republic of Armenia engages in open trade, and all is civil between us and the Turks, there is a great danger that the Republic of Armenia, as small and as isolated as it is, will become desperately dependent on Turkey for survival. This is the biggest long term fear that Armenia has with regards to open trade with Turkey.
I personally feel that we can not have official relations with Turkey as long as we have national demands. And, as far as I am concerned, the Armenian diaspora has demands and, as a matter of fact, the Armenian Republic has demands as well, although for diplomatic reasons they will not discuss it. Moreover, I really don't see any substantial benefit in having open borders with Turkey. Turkey produces cheap goods, nothing else. Armenia needs to concentrate on better relations with Iran, Russia and the EU. At least there we know that our existence is actually within their national interests.
The Turkish border is the longest, therefore, simplest, cheapest and quickest route for transporting goods. The Georgian border is short, risky, unstable and under-developed. The Iranian border is tiny and Iran has serious long-term geo-political problems. Under these circumstances, the worst thing that can happen to Armenia is to have open borders and normal relations with Turks. Economically Turks can overwhelm us within a very short period of time. And once your main source of income is placed within the hands of the enemy - kiss your vor, and your national interests, goodbye. I am surprised more Armenians have not been able to see the long term risks in all this. However, I suspect that many serious political organization within Armenia and the Diaspora, especially the ARF, do see the long term risks with having open borders with Turkey.
It is very troubling that we Armenians have simply forgotten that Turkey was ready to invade Armenia in 1993. This was in '1993' not in 1905 or 1918 or 1921. This was in modern times. You know, the modern 'civilized' Turk. Rest assured, power-brokers in Turkey hate us and they fear us they would love for us to simply disappear. If is was not for the South Caucasus command of the Russian Army, Yerevan today would have been an occupied Armenian city as well.
In short: Armenia today serves the geo-political interest of Iran and Russia and to a lesser extent the European Union. However, Armenia does not serve the long term interest of Turkey and obviously, Azerbaijan. And that is why we can't have any real close relations with Turks. Simply put, a prosperous Armenia is not in their long term interest. As far as Americans are concerned, they are there today, and gone tomorrow - when their 'interests' disappear. When it comes to Armenan issues, we obviously can't trust Washington DC.
We Armenians need to concentrate on building closer economic and political relations with Russians, Iranians, the EU and the Arab world. Let's hope the winds of war in Iran passes soon. Let's hope Georgia gets run-over by Russia. Let's hope the Turkish border remains closed. Armenian will do well looking north and south. As a matter of fact, much to the disappointment of Ankara and Washington DC, the Armenian economy has been doing relatively well despite the Turkic blockade.
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