Armenia, Azerbaijan `Close To Karabakh Deal'

[Gavur]

Political Crisis Escalates in Azarbaijan

By Cihan News Agency, Anadolu News Agency (aa)
Published: Friday, October 21, 2005
zaman.com


Political tension is mounting ahead of the November 6 parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan with a series of sackings and arrests in the cabinet.

President Ilham Aliev started dismissals from office with Economic Development Minister Ferhat Aliev and Minister of Health Ali Ihsanov.

Minister of Social Defense Ali Nagiev and Minister of Education Misir Merdanov followed on Thursday.


Ferhat Aliev and his brother Rafig Aliev, president of "Azpetrol" the country's biggest oil distrbution company, were arrested on charges of "seizing the power by use of force" in collaboration with the opposition Azarbaijan Democratic Party (ADP) leader and former National Assembly President Rasul Guliev.


Two other ministers were taken into custody yesterday. The arrest process began with former Minister of Finance Fikret Yusifov who was taken into custody on October 16.


In a statement from the Ministry of Interior and Office of the Attorney General, Yusifov, in his testimony the day before, said that he conveyed Rasul Guliev's instructions about supporting financially the seizing of power to Ferhat Aliev and his brother Rafig Aliev and that Ferhat Aliev in reply promised to give every support necessary. Yusifov, who said Guliev and Aliev communicated with each other through him a few times also said 100,000 euros found in his house was given by Ferhat Aliev in order to support the groups in question finacially. Rafig Aliev was taken into custody at Baku Airport while he was about to leave the country the day before.


Ukraine releases Guliev


ADP leader and former National Assembly President Rasul Guliev, whose name was mentioned in the dismissal process, has been released by the regional court in Crimean town of Akmescid where he was arrested and taken on the demand of the Baku government. The "political refugee card" previously given to Guliev by the US is claimed to have played an important role in the decision. Azeri main opposition party Musavat's leader Isa Kamber is expected to go to Crimea and meet Guliev. Guliev, living abroad for nine years, was taken into custody by police when his plane landed in Ukraine for refuellling on his way back to Azerbaijan on October 17.


Meanwhile, President Aliev in a statement to the New York Times, Los Angeles Times, Bloomberg agency and Dow Jones/CNBC pointed out public support for the administration and emphasized conditions necessary for a revolution do not exist in the country.

[Hovik]

Mann Clarifies Position Of Official Washington On The Solution Of Karabakh Conflict

MANN CLARIFIES POSITION OF OFFICIAL WASHINGTON ON THE SOLUTION OF KARABAKH CONFLICT

Today, Azerbaijan
Oct 21 2005

The OSCE Minsk Group US co-chair, the chief advisor and the US State
Secretary special envoy on Nagorny Karabakh and Euro-Asian conflicts
Steven Mann who arrived on Wednesday evening in Baku held a press
conference on October 20.

Mann informed that a meeting of the OSCE Minsk group co-chairs will
take place on 24-25 October in Washington where it is planned to
discuss results of the Kazan meetings of the presidents of Azerbaijan
and Armenia and draw an action plan for upcoming months. It is
also expected that the OSCE acting chairman's personal envoy on
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict Andzey Kasprshik will take part in
the discussion.

Mann called the forthcoming meeting "traditional", noting, that for
today the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmen do not experience lack of ideas
and proposals. "Approaches of Armenia and Azerbaijan to the negotiation
process are very serious", the Minsk Group co-chair underlined,
noting that "positions of the sides are to be well analyzed".

As for the latest reports of the international Crisis Group (ICG)
on the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict Mann noted,
"such documents may affect positively the process of settlement"
of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.

Washington's position is that the main platform for the discussion
of the ways to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict must remain the
OSCE Minsk Group. However the initiatives of various international
structures, like ICG in particular, are undoubtedly positive for
the process.

At the end of the press conference the diplomat expressed his opinion
on the involvement of community leaders of Nagorny Karabakh in the
negotiation process, stating that "the issue depends only on the
positions taken by the leadership of Azerbaijan and Armenia".

Trend/EV

URL: http://www.today.az/news/politics/20900.html

[Gavur]

'Armenia Should Not Pay For Careless And Uncalculated Steps Of Another State'

President Kocharian Holds Meetings With High-Ranking EU and Belgian Officials
At the end of October 20 negotiations with Armenian President Robert Kocharian, Josep Borrell Fontelles, president of the European Parliament, stated that the EP will do everything possible to start immediate talks with Armenia on Action Plan under EU's New Neighborhood policy. The talks will launch despite the problems between other states. "The negotiations should resume immediately and should not stop because of the problems between Azerbaijan and Cyprus that emerged because of the Baku-Levkosa flight", EP president said at a joint press conference.

The Action Plan supposed to start with Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan in July of the current year was postponed after the Republic of Cyprus put a veto on talks with Azerbaijan as a result of the air communication with unrecognized Northern Cyprus. The veto suspended talks with Armenia and Georgia either.

"Armenia should not pay for careless and uncalculated steps of another state. Hopefully this is a temporary delay and the Action Plan will start by the end of this year," Armenian President said. Robert Kocharian underscored that official Yerevan has serious intention to integrate into Europe and views the policy of European neighborhood a new opportunity on this path.

Borrell Fontelles and Kocharian also discussed the Armenian-Turkish relations, prospects of Nagorno Karabakh regulation and constitutional reform in Armenia. The president of the European Parliament stated that the issue of lifting Turkish blockade should be on the agenda of EU-Turkey talks. Borrell Fontelles reminded of the Parliament's recent resolution urging Turkey to recognize the Armenian Genocide and to lift the blockade from Armenia. "The European Parliament has declared that Turkey is obliged to recognize the Armenian Genocide," he emphasized. Speaking about the NK issue, Borrell Fontelles said: "We think the maintenance of status quo is not the best alternative."

President Kocharian had meetings also with representatives of executive and legislative authorities of Belgium and European Union.

At the meeting with Javier Solana, EU High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy, Robert Kocharian focused on Yerevan-Brussels relations and ongoing attempts to settle Nagorno Karabakh conflict. The President emphasized the role of the EU in Karabakh regulation especially "after the end of the negotiations when at the realization of practical steps will."

Javier Solana was asked whether it the construction of Kars-Akhalkalak-Tbilisi railway was worth paying hundreds of millions dollars when there is Kars-Gyumri railway that does not function because of Turkey's blockade of Armenia. Solana said that it's certainly more practical to use Kars-Gyumri once the Armenia-Turkish border opens. On the other hand, the High Representative noted that Armenia and Turkey need to make efforts to open the border.

Among the Belgian officials who met President Kocharian were the prime minister and the chairman of the country. Kocharian discussed economic issue with Belgian PM. Belgium has the greatest goods turnover with Armenia from among the EU states. As Belgium prepares will take over the OSCE presidency next year, discussed was also the Nagorno Karabakh regulation and Armenian-Turkish relation.

On October 18, the new compound of the Armenian embassy to Brussels was officially opened. For the last 13 years the Armenian ambassador used to reside in the Armenian House of the Armenian community in Belgium. The new compound at the European borough was bought for 780.000 euro, 280.000 of which was assigned by RA state budged and the rest was borrowed from a local bank with 15 years' period for reimbursement.

Robert Kocharian, ambassador Vigen Chitechian, head of the Department of Foreign Relations of the European Commission, archbishop Gyut Naggashian and representatives of the Armenian community took part in the opening ceremony.

"I have no doubt that the day will come when Armenia will become a member of the European Union," foreign minister Vartan Oskanian said in his speech.

By Tatoul Hakobian in Brussels

http://www.azg.am/?lang=EN&num=2005102201

[Gavur]

Fit for a Fight?: Armenia and Azerbaijan flex military muscles, vow to not be overcom

By Aris Ghazinyan
ArmeniaNow reporter

Armenia’s defense budget will increase by 20 percent next year, from $125 million to $150 million, as announced following a session of the National Assembly Tuesday (October 18).

The SU-25 is old, but believed to be reliable in highland combat

News of the increase comes less than a month after it was learned that Armenia has purchased 10 assault planes, increasing its air power arsenal from 6 to 16.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan plans to spend $650 million on defense next year, more than a 100 percent increase (from $300 million) and almost four times its budget ($175 million) in 2004.

At an appearance in the Azeri town of Lenkoran last month Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev warned that:

“The enemy should know that Azerbaijan is ready to liberate its lands at a desirable time,” adding that money for the increase comes from revenues of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline.

Aliyev further commented that the goal of his country is to make Azerbaijan’s military budget the equivalent of Armenia’s entire State budget (which next year should be about $1 billion).

Are the two republics preparing for war?

Armenia’s Minister of Defense has said his army is not preparing for war, but is merely reacting to buildup from the other side. Which is also what the Azeris say, whose leadership has also stated that armed conflict may be the only means of settling the Karabakh issue.

Late last month, Armenian media learned of the purchase of the war planes. Although the Ministry of Defense would not reveal their make or type, it was learned that they may be characterized in two ways: Old. Cheap.

The SU-25 planes were acquired from Slovakia, and, new, would cost about $16-17 million. Used planes are valued at about $1 million Armenia bought all 10 for $1 million. The planes are at least 20 years old, probably older, as they were built during the Soviet era and were given to Slovakia after the breakup of Czechoslovakia. (For information about the planes, visit http://disarmament2.un.org/UN_REGISTER.nsf)

Still, news of the purchase fueled criticism from the Azeris over the “aggressive” Armenians. Further, the perception propagated by media there is that Armenia military is receiving aid from Russia. Azeri media also referred to the planes as SU-27, a generation of the SU model far superior to the SU-25.

“A fundamental difference of the purchased planes from fighters such as SU-27 is that while SU-27 in its basic modification is a powerful air superiority fighter, characterized by a great range of flying ability and optimized primarily for combats against air targets, the SU-25 is a specialized and relatively simple battle-plane,” says military analyst David Harutyunov.

The analyst added, however, that the SU-25 may be particularly suitable to Armenia’s defense needs.

“It is especially effective in local conflicts, and at use in highlands,” Harutyunov told ArmeniaNow. “Thus, the choice of Armenia’s Ministry of Defense reflects objective military-strategic conditions.”

News of the planes’ purchase has provoked conversations concerning quotas on the amount of military equipment in the countries of the region determined by the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty. Tenets of the treaty set the maximum quantity of warplanes for Azerbaijan and Armenia at 100 each and attack helicopters at 50 each.Join the discussion in ArmeniaNow forum

In addition to its newly-fortified warplane stable, Armenia has 14 “shock” helicopters, while Azerbaijan is believed to own 48 warplanes and 15 attack helicopters.

(Besides aircraft, Armenia and Azerbaijan have undertaken under the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty to remain within the limits of the following quantity of war reserve: 220 tanks (according to the UN Register of Conventional Weapons, Armenia has 110; while Azerbaijan has 270); 220 armored combat vehicles (Armenia has 140, Azerbaijan, 361); 285 artillery of 100 mm caliber or more (Armenia, 229; Azerbaijan, 301).

(Harutyunov points out that Armenia also benefits from 18 MiG-29s located on Russian bases in Armenia, intended for the defense of Armenian airspace.)

“Of course, it is dangerous when the military budget of a neighboring country drastically grows,” Armenia’s Minister of Defense Serzh Sargsyan said Tuesday. “But there is a question of the efficiency of use of these means. It is not a secret that we purchase the same military equipment at incomparably lower prices than Azerbaijan. It is desirable, of course, that we have comparable financial opportunities. However, we will not agree to concessions in any case.”

[Hovik]

Osce Monitoring To Be Held At Karabakh And Azeri Armed Forces Contact Line October 25

OSCE MONITORING TO BE HELD AT KARABAKH AND AZERI ARMED FORCES CONTACT LINE OCTOBER 25

Pan Armenian
24.10.2005 20:00 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ October 25 a recurrent OSCE monitoring will be held
at the contact line of the Nagorno Karabakh and Azeri Armed Forces
near the village of Borsunulu of Terter region. From the positions of
the Azeri Army, the monitoring mission will be led by Field Assistants
Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office Imre Palatinus,
Peter Kii and Olexandr Samarsky. From the Karabakh party it will be
led by Miroslav Vimetal, Harry Eronen and Yuri Aberle.

[Hovik]

Armenian Leader: Eu May Contribute To Conflict Settlement

ARMENIAN LEADER: EU MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CONFLICT SETTLEMENT

Assa-Irada, Azerbaijan
Oct 24 2005

Baku, October 21, AssA-Irada
The European Union may play an important role in the settlement of
the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Upper Garabagh and ensuring the
implementation of commitments assumed by the two sides during the
negotiating process, Armenian media quoted the country's President
Robert Kocharian as saying after his meeting with the EU foreign
policy chief Javier Solana in Brussels.

Solana voiced a hope that the conflicting sides will use the existing
opportunities for the conflict resolution and stated EU's readiness
to assist in the process.

Besides the Garabagh conflict, Kocharian and Solana discussed the
EU-Armenia relations within the New Neighborhood Policy.*

[Gavur]

The News Week: Bloody Red Revolution Probably To Take Place In Azerbaijan

Touching upon the current pre-electoral situation in Azerbaijan, the American The News Week weekly poses a question: "Has the revolution ripen in Azerbaijan? Not yet. Aliyev still has organizational opportunities to unite the population totally stricken with horror. The required condition for a revolution, i.e. "the force of the nation" lacks there." Regnum agency cites an extract from the article published in The News Week. It says the following: "Notwithstanding the fact whether the coming elections in Azerbaijan will be free and fair or not, the only colorful revolution that may take place in Azerbaijan in near future is the bloody red one."

http://www.azg.am/?lang=EN&num=2005102607

[Gavur]

Ghukasian Says Karabakh will Have its Constitution

By Karine Kalantarian

Work over a draft constitution is continuing in the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, with its leader saying that it will get off the drawing board before the New Year.

President Arkady Ghukasian said in an RFE/RL interview that it will take some time for the commission working on the draft to accommodate the recent alternations in the political lineup following the recent parliamentary elections in the country.

“The new political forces that came to parliament should also be involved in this work,” he said.

Nagorno-Karabakh has had no constitution so far and is being governed by constitutional laws instead.

Ghukasian said that the draft constitution will take its final shape in several months after which it will be submitted to the National Assembly for discussion and later put to a nationwide referendum.

“We should also consider the field created in Armenia today, because we think that in any case having a common economic field with Armenia, we cannot stay very far from Yerevan,” said Ghukasian. “Of course, we always try to improve the laws existing in Armenia, perhaps to be half a step ahead, but as changes in the constitution are also expected in Armenia, it certainly has its significance for us.”

http://www.armenialiberty.org/armeniareport/report/en/2005/10/9F3465D6-281E-4BC8-A37D-7979F47EAC0D.asp

[Gavur]

Karabakh Leader Sees Opportunity for Breakthrough in Peace Talks Next Year

By Karine Kalantarian in Stepanakert

The leader of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic finds that 2006 may become a year of positive shifts in the settlement of the long-standing dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh.

In an RFE/RL interview President Arkady Ghukasian said that international mediators perhaps see an opportune moment as “parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan are ending and there are no elections in Karabakh, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, or the United States.”

“The feeling is that the mediators are in a hurry,” Ghukasian said, adding Azerbaijan is showing a more constructive approach hoping for a positive conclusion about its parliamentary elections.

“Of course, I consider it positive that today Azerbaijan speaks about the status of Karabakh, does not avoid discussions. If you remember, in the past Azerbaijan spoke only about issues of particular interest to them. Today one can assume that Azerbaijan is perhaps ready to work in a more constructive field,” Ghukasian said. “But I find it difficult to say what the degree of this constructivism is and whether it will prove enough for the settlement of the problem. On the other hand, I am convinced that the international community is in a hurry to speed up the process of settling this problem.”

As regards Nagorno-Karabakh’s involvement in the peace process, Ghukasian does not think it right to say that it is not a party to the general process at all.

“On the one hand, there is no active negotiating process on our part within the framework of the Minsk Group. Meetings are held only between the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan. On the other hand, during their regional tours the Minsk Group cochairmen always pay visits to Nagorno-Karabakh, meaning that they negotiate with us as well,” said Ghukasian.

As for the current format of negotiations in which Armenia and Azerbaijan are represented as parties, the Karabakh leader thinks it is a forced step considering Azerbaijan’s reluctance to have direct contacts with Nagorno-Karabakh.

“I think it is a big obstacle to the process and the formula according to which Karabakh should join the talks only later is unclear to me,” he said. “Negotiating with Armenia only, Azerbaijan is dragging out the process. Meanwhile, its negotiations with Karabakh will mean that
Azerbaijan is ready for a settlement.”

Ghukasian believes that dealing with Armenia only, Azerbaijan is pursuing its goal of getting the international community to recognize Armenia as an aggressor in the conflict and to apply sanctions against it.

“There is an absurd opinion in Azerbaijan that negotiating with Karabakh will mean recognition of its independence. We have much more serious arguments for our independence than negotiations with Azerbaijan,” said Ghukasian.

The Karabakh leader expressed his strong opinion that any settlement plan should first of all consider the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh’s status as a priority.

“I see that the international community is showing a clear approach today that the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh’s status is really on the agenda,” Ghukasian said. “While Azerbaijan did not even want to speak about the status of Nagorno-Karabakh before, then now it is forced to discuss this issue.”

http://www.armenialiberty.org/armeniareport/report/en/2005/10/2A073F27-221C-46E1-8E9F-020EAB7FD8C5.asp

[Gavur]

Armenian FM: Baku Should Recognize Karabakh Right to Self-Determination

Armenian FM Vartan Oskanian in an interview with the Suddeutsche Zeitung German newspaper said that “recognition of Kosovo independence may be a positive sign for Armenians of Karabakh.” Commenting on prospects of settlement of the NK conflict after the parliamentary election in Azerbaijan November 6, Oskanian said, “If Baku does not display a realistic position, there will be no solution.” “Baku should recognize NK right to self-determination,” the Armenian FM said.
© PanArmenian