Armenia, Azerbaijan `Close To Karabakh Deal'

[Gavur]

WE WILL FIGHT FOR INDEPEDENCE: NKR PRESIDENT

YEREVAN, JULY 19. ARMINFO. Karabakh excludes the possibility of
submission to Azerbaijan, NKR President Arkady Ghoyukassyan says in
an interview to Armenia's Public TV Company.

Asked where is the limit of compromises Karabakh can make Ghoukassyan
says that Karabakh has not deviated an inch from the principles
proclaimed in 1991. "We will not submit to Azerbaijan, we will
fight for our independence. This is a long and hard proces and the
international community is not ready yet to recognize our independence
but this is not impossible," says Ghoukassyan.

He notes that if formerly the talks considered Karabakh's status
in the framework of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity now all the
scenarios are on agenda. Both the international community and th
Azeri authorities realize that Karabakh will not agree to be part
of Azerbaijan.

Ghoukassyan also notes the importance of democratic processes in
Karabakh. It was not coincidence that the international community
attentively followed the last parliamentary elections in the country.
This may play a decisive role. This will show if Karabakh can build
an independent state, establish democratic relations, develop market
economy, be self-sufficient. Here we have serious advantages, says
Ghoukassyan.

[Gavur]

Russian daily views reasons for Turkish defence minister's visit to Azerbaijan

Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Moscow
21 Jul 05

Excerpt from report by Sohbat Mammadov in Russian newspaper
Nezavisimaya Gazeta on 21 July headlined "Ankara inspects Baku.
Turkey intends to bring military into Azerbaijan to guard pipelines
and interfere in Karabakh settlement"

The official visit to Baku by Turkish Defence Minister Vecdi Gonul
ends tomorrow [22 July]. [Passage omitted: schedule of Gonul's visit]

Officially this visit is in return for [Azerbaijani Defence Minister]
Safar Abiyev's visit to Turkey last year. However, independent analysts
are inclined to lend far more significance to it. Azerbaijani military
expert Uzeir Cafarov has said that any military contacts between Baku
and Ankara will contribute to strengthening the Azerbaijani armed
forces and speeding up the country's integration into NATO.

"A few months ago a plan was adopted for individual cooperation
between Azerbaijan and the alliance. In line with this plan, our
country pledged to reform the army and bring it into line with the
NATO standards. Turkey is the country responsible for the monitoring
and fulfilment of this plan's points," the expert told journalists.
In his opinion, the fact that visits to Azerbaijan by Turkish military
delegations have become more frequent in recent weeks demonstrates that
"they probably have unplanned missions in our country".

These missions may include, first, organizing and ensuring the
protection of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan main oil export pipeline and
the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil
pipeline is practically ready and is expected to be commissioned in
November. As for the gas pipeline, its construction is gaining momentum
and will be completed next year. These power lines are of strategic
importance both for Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey as well as for
the countries of the West and the USA. Hence, NATO intends to deploy
mobile groups on the Absheron Peninsula to guard the pipelines. Turkey,
whose military experts are training Azerbaijani servicemen, has no
small role in this matter.

Another equally important task is the settlement of the
Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Official Ankara, while supporting
Azerbaijan's position, is at the same time interested in normalizing
relations with Armenia. Hence, the Turkish defence minister discussed
with Azerbaijani leaders prospects for Ankara's involvement in the
settlement of the conflict. This problem was discussed a few days
ago during a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Sochi. In the opinion
of Azerbaijani analysts, the defence minister had something to tell
[Azerbaijani] President Ilham Aliyev about the results of the talks
in Sochi.

Anyway, during his meetings the Turkish defence minister pointed out
the need for the settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict within
the framework of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity.

[Gavur]

BAD BLOOD: CLASH IN AKHALKALAK THE LATEST EVIDENCE OF TENSIONS
IN GEORGIA

By Aris Ghazinyan ArmeniaNow Reporter

The situation in the Samtskhe-Javakheti province of Georgia, where half
of the population is Armenian, continues to be unstable. Tension has
existed between the Armenian population and the Georgians since 1990,
and have grown more tense since March, when the government of Georgia
decided to withdraw a Russian military base (where many Armenians
are employed) in Akhalkalak.

Matters intensified last weekend in the Akhalkalak region, when
residents of the Armenian-populated village of Samsar barred entrance
for Georgian students as well as representatives of the Georgian
clergy to the 12th century Armenian church of Surb Gevorg. As
some participants told ArmeniaNow, the action was in protest of the
destruction of several Armenian khachkars (stone crosses) situated in
the vestibule of the church, by students. (The Georgian Prosecutor's
Office initiated two criminal proceedings related to the vandalism.)

"Everything began on July 15, when a group of Georgian students, church
ministers and nuns - 30 people all in all - arrived in the village and
made themselves comfortable in the church territory," Samsar villager
Arakel Mahtesyan told ArmeniaNow. "This caused a certain concern
among the villagers, as the process of Georgianization of Armenian
churches long ago went beyond the boundaries of our province. Only
a few years ago someone scratched Georgian letters on the walls of
this very church."

Mahtesyan said some members of the Georgian party carried ladders
and spades.

"It is remarkable that the group was accompanied by representatives
of the regional militia, as well as members of the provincial
administration," villager Armen Kirakosyan said. "Students put up
tents in the church vestibule, and militia explained to us that the
group had come here for summer vacation. However, what we saw on the
third day of their stay dispelled our doubts. The broken khachkars -
one of the major symbols of the church's Armenian identity - forced
us to retaliate."

Villager Aram Kalantaryan said a fight broke out, during which one
Georgian clergy drew a knife and, after the clash said: "This puts
an end to Armenian-Georgian brotherhood".

The old Armenian village of Samsar situated 30 kilometers from the
regional center of Akhalkalaki, was always famous for its church,
which was a place of pilgrimage for the residents of the area.

Villagers say the Georgians plan to build a monastery on the church
site.

"Such behavior of the Georgians testifies about the continuation of
the policy aimed against the architectural monuments of Armenian
spiritual culture," said Superior of the Surb Khach Church Samuel
Torosyan. Residents of the Akhalkalaki region blame the local diocese
of the Georgian Orthodox Church.

On July 19, a meeting was held at the building of the Akhalkalaki
regional administration between members of the "United Javakhk"
Union and the unregistered "Viryu" organization. The meeting was
also attended by the authorized representative of the President of
Georgia in Samtskhe-Javakheti Giorgi Khachidze, head of the regional
administration Artur Yeremyan and head of the Samtskhe-Javakheti
diocese of the Armenian Apostolic Church, Father Babken Salbiyan.

During the meeting the sides discussed a broad spectrum of
Armenian-Georgian relations, including the events of last weekend. It
was mentioned during the meeting that only three months ago a bilateral
Armenian-Georgian agreement was reached about the so-called "disputable
churches", on which no one - either juridical or physical persons, are
entitled to dispute the belonging of any "disputed cultural facility"
until the Armenian Apostolic Church acquires a state status in Georgia.

The participants of the meeting said that this agreement was violated
by the Georgian side on July 15-17. As the "Javakhk-info" news agency
reports, Khachidze stated during the meeting that no such incidents
will occur in the future.

"The events of July 15-17 in the Akhalkalaki region are, of course,
another provocation, however, today one should barely pay attention
to the details," says political analyst Petros Arakelyan. "Similar
manifestations took place in the past and take place always and they
are only a tip of the iceberg. Now there is a vital need to develop
normal and constant contact between official representatives of both
neighboring states with discussions of concrete problems. Only in
this case will it become possible to prevent more radical forms of
outbreak of tensions."

"Currently, official Tbilisi and Yerevan continue to think that
it is the economic factor is the chief problem of the region,"
historian and political scientist Armen Ayvazyan told ArmeniaNow. "The
short-sightedness and artificial nature of such an approach is beyond
doubt and it is fraught with unpredictable and undesirable consequences
for both states. A strictly economic factor is only separate, and
can be even the last link in a longer chain of problems surrounding
the areas of compact residence of Armenians.

Ayvazyan speculates that failure to settle tensions in the Armenian
community of Georgia could lead to an exodus of Armenians, who would
likely be replaced by Meskhet Turks.

"The Turkic ring around Armenian statehood would be completed,"
Ayvazyan says, "for all the exits from Armenia to the outer world
would lie through Turkic-populated territories."

[Gavur]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WE WILL FIGHT FOR INDEPENDENCE: NKR PRESIDENT

I'll say this:I dont think being born in TC I can fight against them because i might be shooting at my own .But i'll be in the frontlines tommorow if Azeri's attack Karabagh, and if TC decide to join Azeri's against the Armenians that would be very unfortunate for everyone invoved.

[Gavur]

BAKU: Azeri opposition parliamentary contender beaten up in exclave -TV
From: Mihran Keheyian <[email protected]>
Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 00:24:40 +0500 (AMST)
Azeri opposition parliamentary contender beaten up in exclave - TV

ANS TV, Baku
21 Jul 05

[Presenter] Sahib Huseynov, who wants to stand for [November]
parliamentary election in the village of Nehram in the Naxcivan
Autonomous Republic [Azerbaijani exclave], has been taken to a police
department and subjected to pressure.

[Correspondent, over video of scenes in Babak district in Naxcivan]
Residents in Nehram have closed the Nehram-Babak road in protest at
the beating of their co-villager. Residents say that Sahib Huseynov,
a member of the [opposition] People's Front of Azerbaijan Party,
who is preparing to stand for the forthcoming parliamentary election,
was taken to the district police department on 19 July and subjected
to violence and then taken out of Naxcivan.

[Vahid Huseynov, captioned as Sahib Huseynov's father] They said he
would come at 1700 [1200 gmt]. A guy called us at 1700 and said that
his rib had been broken and he had been taken to Turkey and he was
in the street there.

[Correspondent] A representative of the Nehram executive authorities,
Isa Aliyev, said he had no knowledge of what had happened.

[Aliyev, uncaptioned] I am saying that I know nothing about this.

[Correspondent] The chief of the Babak district police department,
Almammad Abbasov, who came to the site of the protest, also denied any
knowledge of the incident. The police chief's talks with the residents
ended the protest. A few hours later, Sahib Huseynov was returned to
the village. He said that he had been taken to the district police
department and then to the Arpaca area of Sarur District [in Naxcivan]
accompanied by four policemen in plain clothes. He was beaten up there
and deported to Turkey with the condition that he would not be back.

[Sahib Huseynov, captioned] I was told that they would take me to
Turkey. They threatened that if I returned, my family, my child,
my mother and father would be beheaded.

[Correspondent] This is a second similar incident in a week. Several
days ago another opposition member, a resident in the village of
Tamasilli in Sarur District, Ayaz Agayev, was also beaten up and
deported to Turkey. The Babak district police department did not
comment on the incident to ANS's Naxcivan bureau.

Ayaz Mirzayev, Elman Abbasov, Ilqar Nasibov for ANS.

[Gavur]

Military Spending Increase Could Finance New Karabakh War: Azeri President

Military Spending Increase Could Finance New Karabakh War: Azeri President

25/07/2005 20:56

QUBA, Azerbaijan, July 25 (AFP) - Former Soviet Azerbaijan can reconquer the contested Nagorno Karabakh region at any time because of its expanded military budget, Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev said on Monday.




"This year defense spending has grown by 76 percent, we will create a powerful army and will be able to liberate our lands at any time," Aliyev said during a visit to Quba, a city in northern Azerbaijan.

Aliyev acknowledged that negotiations with Armenia over Nagorno Karabakh chaired by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe were important, but complained that they have "not brought results."

Azerbaijan will spend 300 million dollars (248 million euros) on its armed forces in 2005, Aliyev said earlier.

The oil-producing nation increased defense spending earlier this year after a windfall in the national budget due to higher-than-expected oil prices.

Oil revenues are expected to further increase after a massive US-backed oil pipeline starts pumping later this year.

The four-billion-dollar Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline could generate as much as 160 billion dollars (133 billion eurso) in oil revenues to Azerbaijan over the next 30 years, according to Britain's BP which heads the consortium running the pipeline.

Azerbaijan and Armenia fought a war for control over the mainly ethnic-Armenian Nagorno Karabakh enclave in the early 1990s.

Armenian forces took control of the region and seven others by the war's end in 1994, but its status has yet to be settled and it is still internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan.

Some 25,000 people were killed and a further one million displaced as a result of the Karabakh war.

[Gavur]

Armenian Defense Minister Downplays Azerbaijani War Rhetoric

ARMENIAN DEFENSE MINISTER DOWNPLAYS AZERBAIJANI WAR RHETORIC
YEREVAN, JULY 25, ARMENPRESS: Armenian defense minister Serzh Sarkisian downplayed last Saturday Azerbaijan's war rhetoric saying it would have tried to win Karabakh back by using force long ago had it been sure of its military build-up. Addressing a youth jamboree at Armenia's resort town of Tsakhkadzor Sarkisian said Azerbaijani presidents have been saying for years they are able to solve the problem through a war, "but if they are sure of their military capacity why they have not done this ?' he asked.
Sarkisian also dismissed a sharp increase in Azerbaijan's defense spending as an "imprudent " trick designed to bully the Armenians into making more concessions on Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev said last June that his country's military budget will increase from $175 million in 2004 to $300 million this year in response to the recent redeployment of Russian weapons from Georgia to Armenia and claimed that the Azerbaijani military has already gained superiority over its Armenian adversary.

[Gavur]

Karabakh accuse Azeri media of adverse coverage

Karabakh accuse Azeri media of adverse coverage

Nagornyy Karabakh Foreign Ministry, Stepanakert
2 Aug 05

Text of report by press release from Ministry of Foreign Affairs of
the Nagornyy Karabakh Republic on 2 August headlined "Commentary on
the publication of the article 'NKR torpedoes the peace process" in
the 23 July issue of Zerkalo newspaper

Representatives of the Azerbaijani mass media, having no idea of the
details of the peace process on the Karabakh problem and its
political and legal aspects, publish articles in which information
from Stepanakert is misconstrued. As a result, an atmosphere
hindering the understanding of human values and consideration of any
alternative means and goals is created in Azerbaijani society.

There is no doubt that the search for a mutually profitable and fair
settlement of the Karabakh conflict is possible only via the
establishment of effective communications between the Nagornyy
Karabakh Republic [NKR] and the Azerbaijani Republic.

In this connection, it should be re-emphasized that any settlement of
the Karabakh conflict, the current stage of which started with such a
humanitarian catastrophe as mass killings of Armenians in Sumqayit
and Baku, as well as further ethnic cleansing, deportation and
expulsion of nearly 500,000 Armenian citizens of the former
Azerbaijani SSR in 1988-1990, must, first of all, propose the
restoration of justice and reparation for moral and financial losses
to these people, including the recognition of their right to have
their motherland.

The Azerbaijani leadership is entirely responsible for unleashing
hostilities and for their results, including the issue of paying
reparations to all the refugees and internally displaced persons who
suffered from these actions, regardless of their nationality and
current citizenship.

Starting with a humanitarian catastrophe, the Karabakh conflict must
be settled only in the humanitarian dimension and in full accordance
with the fundamental principles and goals of international law.

[Signed] The information-analytical department of the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs of the Nagornyy Karabakh Republic

[Gavur]

Agreement Over Karabakh Issue May Be Reached At Kocharian-aliyev Meeting

AGREEMENT OVER KARABAKH ISSUE MAY BE REACHED AT KOCHARIAN-ALIYEV MEETING

PanArmenian News Network
Aug 4 2005

04.08.2005 02:46

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ "An agreement over the Nagorno Karabakh conflict
may be reached at the recurrent meeting of the Azeri and Armenian
Presidents to be held August 26. The talks held within the past
year provide ground for an opinion of this kind," Project Director
of International Crisis Group for Caucasus Sabine Freizer stated in
the air of RFE/RL. In her words, the population is not sufficiently
informed on the course of the talks, which results in discontent and
press speculations. "It is utterly important for the Governments
of Azerbaijan and Armenia to provide information to their country
population irrespective of whether an agreement is reached or not.
Otherwise the attitude of the population of both countries to any
arranged issues will be negative," she said. The International Crisis
Group monthly report says during OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs' visit
to the region there were optimistic conversations about peace. The
document says that the matter of the referendum in Karabakh was
discussed in the press, while the Azeri MFA denies it. The report
also notes that in spite of the public opinion in Azerbaijan still
being very critical, relative calmness is available in Armenia. It
notes that on the eve of the parliamentary election pressure over
Azerbaijan increases - the US, EU and OSCE make statements on the
need to hold free and fair election.

[Gavur]

Russia And Turkey Forge New Ties On Security, Trade

Eurasianet Organization
August 8, 2005

RUSSIA AND TURKEY FORGE NEW TIES ON SECURITY, TRADE

by Igor Torbakov


Turkish Prime-Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's recent talks with
Russian President Vladimir Putin suggest that the two Eurasian
countries have found common ground on a number of key regional
security issues.

`It's our fourth meeting during the last seven months, and I guess,
all of you understand what it means,' Erdogan said at a news
conference following the July 17-18 negotiations at Putin's posh
summer residence in the Russian Black Sea resort town of Sochi. `Our
views totally coincide with regard to the situation in the region as
well as to the issues concerning the preservation of stability in the
world,' Interfax news agency quoted Erdogan as saying.

The current Russian-Turkish encounter came after the Kremlin leader's
official visit to Ankara in December 2004 and Erdogan's trip to
Moscow in January 2005. Last May the Turkish prime minister also
attended festivities in the Russian capital commemorating the 60th
anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.

Such a sharp increase in top-level contacts appears to be the result
of both countries' wariness toward political turbulence in their
overlapping `near abroads' - specifically, in the South Caucasus and
Central Asia, the regional analysts say.

Both Moscow and Ankara are closely following the geopolitical changes
that are taking place in post-Soviet Eurasia - in particular, those
brought about by the so called `color revolutions.' In the South
Caucasus, the `frozen conflicts' between Tbilisi and the breakaway
territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and the stalemate between
Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh drive these mutual
concerns.

In public, both Russian and Turkish leaders have stressed their
commitment to the peaceful settlement of the inter-ethnic conflicts
in the Caucasus. However, a number of Turkish and Russian experts
argue that Ankara and Moscow seem reluctant to embrace political
changes in the Commonwealth of Independent States' southern tier and
would rather support the preservation of the status quo.

Even before the Putin-Erdogan meeting in Sochi, some regional
analysts suggested there might be joint Russian-Turkish attempts to
solve the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. As Armenia's main
geopolitical ally, Russia can be expected to mediate between Turkey
and Armenia on a number of issues, they say.

Russian media reports confirmed that the Nagorno-Karabakh issue was
discussed during the Russian-Turkish talks. The Russian government
newspaper Rossiiskaya Gazeta reported on July 19 that Moscow had
expressed its readiness to pursue the settlement in Nagorno-Karabakh
`more actively,' and that Ankara had agreed to cooperate on this
issue. Furthermore, according to some Russian and Azerbaijani
sources, Turkish Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul, who made an official
visit to Baku on July 18-21, hinted that Ankara is interested in
normalization of relations with Yerevan and discussed with
Azerbaijani leadership the prospects of Turkey's participation in the
Nagorno-Karabakh settlement.

At the same time, Turkey appears keen to act as a mediator in the
Georgian-Abkhazian conflict. Turkey is home to a sizeable Abkhazian
community, and Ankara has established friendly ties both with Moscow
and Tbilisi, some Turkish commentators note.

`We don't want to live in a world where enmity dominates; we need a
world where friendship reigns supreme,' Erdogan said in Sochi,
referring to the urgent need to settle the South Caucasus's
conflicts.

Both leaders, however, appear to share a strong apprehension
regarding potential political upheavals on post-Soviet territory.
While both Moscow and Ankara understand fully that a huge potential
exists for political change in the Caucasus and Central Asia, the
Putin administration and Erdogan government are unlikely to welcome
the revolutionary transformation of the authoritarian regimes in the
region, some Turkish analysts contend.

Azerbaijan's November 2005 parliamentary elections are a case in
point, noted Suat Kiniklioglu, head of the Turkish office of the
German Marshall Fund of the United States. For Russia, securing
stability in this energy-rich Caspian state is important within the
framework of the Kremlin's strategy of preserving its influence in
the Caucasus, Kiniklioglu said. But Turkey, too, wants to see
Azerbaijan stable, and keep secure the delivery of crude oil via the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan export pipeline, he said in an interview with the
Russian Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper.

Similarly, in Central Asia, Turkey and Russia seek to maintain the
geopolitical status quo. According to Kiniklioglu, both the Turks and
the Russians would prefer to deal with the likes of Uzbek President
Islam Karimov and other autocratic regional leaders than face the
uncertainty of revolutionary turmoil. A number of Turkish foreign
policy experts suggest that Ankara's strategic perspective on Central
Asia is much closer to the Russian position than to that of the
United States. `Neither Moscow nor Ankara is happy to see US forces
in the region,' wrote analyst Semih Idiz in the mass circulation
Milliyet daily.

The talk of shared security interests extends to economic issues,
too. Bilateral trade and energy issues figured prominently during the
Sochi meeting. The two leaders said they aim to raise the trade
volume between the two countries to $25 billion from the current $11
billion.

The Russian president signaled that Russia would like to increase
energy exports to Turkey. Putin set out plans for new gas pipelines
through Turkey to supply southern European markets and also raised
the possibility of electric power exports to Turkey and Iraq. Erdogan
appeared to welcome Moscow's intention to boost gas supplies to
Turkey. `There is serious potential for increasing supplies through
the Blue Stream pipeline,' the Turkish prime minister said. According
to Erdogan, the pipeline has a capacity of 16 billion cubic meters
per year, but current supplies amount to only 4.7 billion cubic
meters. The 1, 213-kilometer Blue Stream gas pipeline under the Black
Sea was completed in 2002, but has since been a source of dispute
between Russia and Turkey over gas prices.

Most Russian and Turkish commentators give a very positive overall
assessment of the Putin-Erdogan meeting's outcome. The rapid
rapprochement between the two Eurasian powers could serve as useful
leverage for boosting each country's geopolitical stature, they
argue.

The strengthening of cooperation between Russia and Turkey `adds
significantly to our country's international prestige,' noted one
Russian commentary posted on the Politcom.ru website. Many Turkish
experts seem to agree. Argued Milliyet foreign policy columnist Idiz:
`It may be an exaggeration to call our bilateral relations `strategic
partnership,' but Turkish-Russian relations have already grown in
importance to the extent that they affect the entire region.'

NOTES: Igor Torbakov is a freelance journalist and researcher who
specializes in CIS political affairs. He holds an MA in History from
Moscow State University and a PhD from the Ukrainian Academy of
Sciences. He was Research Scholar at the Institute of Russian
History, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow; a Visiting Scholar at
the Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for
Scholars, Washington DC; a Fulbright Scholar at Columbia University,
New York; and a Visiting Fellow at Harvard University. He is now
based in Istanbul, Turkey.