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Levon Melik-Shahnazaryan:
Everyone Will Lose in Case of War against Iran, Including Armenia
Apprehensions are voiced more often lately over possible attack against Iran by the US. Open threats by Washington, as well as Teheran pursuing a hard-edged policy increase this alarm. Taking into account Armenia neighboring Iran, the good naborly relations between us, as well as the presence of a many-million Azerbaijani population in it, Yerevan, of course, cannot remain indifferent to the growing tension in the region. Political scientist Levon Melik-Shahnazaryan answers these and other questions of PanARMENIAN.Net.
03.04.2006 GMT+04:00
What are the forecasts regaring a war? Will Armenia suffer in case of possible US invasion of Iran?
Armenia cannot remain indifferent to the possibility of U.S. hostilities against Iran but unfortunately it has a few tools for influencing the developments. Armenia is not a member of the UN Security Council and doesn’t have political significance for the powers. It doesn’t mean we should keep silent. Iran is our friendly state but it’s not real to hope for serious assistance from Armenia. Especially taking into account the unsettled conflict with Azerbaijan.
Do you think US war against Iran is inevitable or there are still resources for mutual understanding?
Resources are always present. Though I have to note that in this case a huge confrontation way is passed. Washington spent to much energy and means to form the current conditions. In fact the invasion of Afghanistan, depriving Taliban movement of power, occupation of Iraq, pressure upon Syria are all parts of a common strategic plan of occupation of Iran. The Iranian Plateau is the heart of Asia. It is strategically important to any state, which claims world hegemony. Oil resources and especially gas in the bowels in that country are also important.
Those factors were a precondition for pressure upon Iran. Today that country is in fact surrounded with few exceptions. These are not hostile peoples – neighbors have no ground for hating Iran and Iranians, but unfriendly governments that are Washington's protégé. Today Iran does not have other well-wishing neighbors than Armenia, Syria and Turkmenistan and these have few capabilities. Huge propaganda is held in America itself and now many Americans believe Iran sponsors international terrorism.
What about Azerbaijan? Official Baku firmly stated several times that it will by no means allow using its territory as a bridgehead for attacking Iran.
Azerbaijan is an enemy of Iran since its birth in 1918. It comes out not only in “borrowing” north Iranian ostan’s annexationist name of that country. In soviet years Azerbaijan was the front line in struggle of Stalinism against Iran, while since 1991 Teheran had problems with Baku. These are problems of the Caspian Sea, oil transit to Europe and open provocation of separatism in Iran, hard repression against Iranian-speaking Talyshs and much more. The other day Azeri Deputy FM Araz Azimov was in Washington, where according to Baku media reports Baku gave its preliminary consent to join anti-Iranian coalition. Pentagon and State Department officials are expected to arrive in Baku in the near future. Nevertheless I do not believe Azerbaijan will provide its territory as a base for attack on Iran.
Why? Isn’t there a contradiction? You say Azerbaijan is Iran’s foe.
Ilham Aliyev proved much cleverer politicians than it was expected judging from his prolonged youth under his father’s wing. Azerbaijan has launched an all-prize lottery. Baku tries to create a situation that will offer a possibility to pretend ally to the winner and then “present a bill” for the service rendered. Not providing a base for the U.S. troops Baku will simultaneously incite the Turkic population of Iran to anti-governmental statements. However the U.S. has radar stations in Azerbaijan and near the Iranian border as well. The participation in anti-Iranian coalition does not necessarily provide for location of military bases. Merely propaganda activities can prove efficient.
Baku understands that Americans will not succeed without the support of the multi-million Turkic population of Iran. Washington is aware of this as well. Addressing the Senate Secretary Rice dropped a hint at the Turkic population of Iran as an instrument allowing to tense discrepancies between the Iranian people and the ruling regime.
That is why counting on Baku’s influence upon the Turkic population of Iran Washington is not offended by Azerbaijan’s pseudo-courageous position. Moreover the latest developments in Baku fully meet Washington’s plans. I mean the anti-Iranian statements at the second summit of the Azerbaijanis of the world against Ambassador Suleymani and the demands of some Milli Mejlis members to declare the Ambassador persona non grata. I should also note that Azerbaijanis from Iran were not invited to summit. Baku officials announced before the summit that Azerbaijanis of Iran are not Diaspora. It’s nothing but undisguised territorial claim to the neighbor, since the Diaspora are those who live beyond the homeland borders. It turns out that the Azerbaijanis of Iran live on a territory conquered by Iran bit in their homeland. That is to say the “South Azerbaijan” is presented as a part of territory taken from Transcaucasian Turks.
Such undisguised falsification is exercised at the state level. Inspired by Baku’s position many delegates of the summit called to struggle for the unification of “South” and “North” Azerbaijans. Some journalists even said the state of Iran does not exist. Nevertheless this doesn’t prove that Azerbaijan has considerable influence of the Turkic population of Iran. This is a recurrent bluff of the Azeri propaganda machine. On the other hand in case the operation against Iran fails Baku will try to prove Iran it was a real courage to refuse the U.S. in providing military bases.
Will the Turkic population of Iran take the side of the United States?
I cannot answer for sure. I should mention that those who speak the Turkic language are not necessarily Turks. The north of Iran had for a long time been under the Turkish governance and many Persians living there speak Turkic. Besides, the tolerant national policy pursued by Iran has yielded fruit and today the citizenship and religion in Iran have a greater importance that the communication tongue. The overwhelming majority of the residents consider themselves Iranians. This factor bears a great unifying supply.
On the other hand, a certain number of Turkic-speaking Iranian fell under the influence of Turkey and Azerbaijan’s propaganda. I suppose the U.S. counts on their support. The inevitable repressions by Iran will increase the number those who dream of the unification of the “South” and “North” Azerbaijan. For its part, on the threshold of war Iran can deploy troops in the Turkic-speaking regions. This simple and essential maneuver will allow Iran to solve to problems at once: to prevent the possible treason by the Turkic population and deprive the Americans of the space for launching military operations.
Who will win the war if it starts?
All including Armenia will suffer from the war. It will be a huge-scale humanitarian catastrophe. Using its incontestable technical advantage America is capable to bomb all Iranian power plants, bridges, ports, railway stations and airports… There is also a threat of civic war that can be provoked by Washington and Baku. Huge flows of refugees will move to the neighbor states greatly damaging their economy. Besides, the U.S. allies being in the hitting radius in the region will to all appearance be attacked by Iran. In case Tehran succeeds in blocking the Persian and Oman gulfs, Europe will face economic collapse
Will Iran die in this Apocalypses?
I wouldn’t say so. Iran is a he country, whose territory and population exceeds Iraq’s four times. The U.S. hasn’t come out of the Iraqi quagmire yet. In case with Iran it will collide with a much more numerous, organized and idealized nation. The U.S. can bomb Iran but it can’t occupy it. Such an attempts will turn a catastrophe for the United States; a greater catastrophe than in Vietnam. Besides, if Iran is attacked the guerilla movement in Iraq will sharply activate and Americans will face the increased counteraction of Shiites. So, the White House should think over the consequences of the aggression. If the U.S. restricts to a “distant war” it will first confirm Iran’s assurance in obtaining nuclear weapon and second, will face the organized power of the Islamic organizations throughout the globe. Besides, the Arab factor will activate. Somehow or other the hostilities will reach America and the assault on Iran will become the start of the end of the super power.
«PanARMENIAN.Net», 03.04.2006
! Reproduction in full or in part is prohibited without reference to «PanARMENIAN.Net».
Everyone Will Lose in Case of War against Iran, Including Armenia
Apprehensions are voiced more often lately over possible attack against Iran by the US. Open threats by Washington, as well as Teheran pursuing a hard-edged policy increase this alarm. Taking into account Armenia neighboring Iran, the good naborly relations between us, as well as the presence of a many-million Azerbaijani population in it, Yerevan, of course, cannot remain indifferent to the growing tension in the region. Political scientist Levon Melik-Shahnazaryan answers these and other questions of PanARMENIAN.Net.
03.04.2006 GMT+04:00
What are the forecasts regaring a war? Will Armenia suffer in case of possible US invasion of Iran?
Armenia cannot remain indifferent to the possibility of U.S. hostilities against Iran but unfortunately it has a few tools for influencing the developments. Armenia is not a member of the UN Security Council and doesn’t have political significance for the powers. It doesn’t mean we should keep silent. Iran is our friendly state but it’s not real to hope for serious assistance from Armenia. Especially taking into account the unsettled conflict with Azerbaijan.
Do you think US war against Iran is inevitable or there are still resources for mutual understanding?
Resources are always present. Though I have to note that in this case a huge confrontation way is passed. Washington spent to much energy and means to form the current conditions. In fact the invasion of Afghanistan, depriving Taliban movement of power, occupation of Iraq, pressure upon Syria are all parts of a common strategic plan of occupation of Iran. The Iranian Plateau is the heart of Asia. It is strategically important to any state, which claims world hegemony. Oil resources and especially gas in the bowels in that country are also important.
Those factors were a precondition for pressure upon Iran. Today that country is in fact surrounded with few exceptions. These are not hostile peoples – neighbors have no ground for hating Iran and Iranians, but unfriendly governments that are Washington's protégé. Today Iran does not have other well-wishing neighbors than Armenia, Syria and Turkmenistan and these have few capabilities. Huge propaganda is held in America itself and now many Americans believe Iran sponsors international terrorism.
What about Azerbaijan? Official Baku firmly stated several times that it will by no means allow using its territory as a bridgehead for attacking Iran.
Azerbaijan is an enemy of Iran since its birth in 1918. It comes out not only in “borrowing” north Iranian ostan’s annexationist name of that country. In soviet years Azerbaijan was the front line in struggle of Stalinism against Iran, while since 1991 Teheran had problems with Baku. These are problems of the Caspian Sea, oil transit to Europe and open provocation of separatism in Iran, hard repression against Iranian-speaking Talyshs and much more. The other day Azeri Deputy FM Araz Azimov was in Washington, where according to Baku media reports Baku gave its preliminary consent to join anti-Iranian coalition. Pentagon and State Department officials are expected to arrive in Baku in the near future. Nevertheless I do not believe Azerbaijan will provide its territory as a base for attack on Iran.
Why? Isn’t there a contradiction? You say Azerbaijan is Iran’s foe.
Ilham Aliyev proved much cleverer politicians than it was expected judging from his prolonged youth under his father’s wing. Azerbaijan has launched an all-prize lottery. Baku tries to create a situation that will offer a possibility to pretend ally to the winner and then “present a bill” for the service rendered. Not providing a base for the U.S. troops Baku will simultaneously incite the Turkic population of Iran to anti-governmental statements. However the U.S. has radar stations in Azerbaijan and near the Iranian border as well. The participation in anti-Iranian coalition does not necessarily provide for location of military bases. Merely propaganda activities can prove efficient.
Baku understands that Americans will not succeed without the support of the multi-million Turkic population of Iran. Washington is aware of this as well. Addressing the Senate Secretary Rice dropped a hint at the Turkic population of Iran as an instrument allowing to tense discrepancies between the Iranian people and the ruling regime.
That is why counting on Baku’s influence upon the Turkic population of Iran Washington is not offended by Azerbaijan’s pseudo-courageous position. Moreover the latest developments in Baku fully meet Washington’s plans. I mean the anti-Iranian statements at the second summit of the Azerbaijanis of the world against Ambassador Suleymani and the demands of some Milli Mejlis members to declare the Ambassador persona non grata. I should also note that Azerbaijanis from Iran were not invited to summit. Baku officials announced before the summit that Azerbaijanis of Iran are not Diaspora. It’s nothing but undisguised territorial claim to the neighbor, since the Diaspora are those who live beyond the homeland borders. It turns out that the Azerbaijanis of Iran live on a territory conquered by Iran bit in their homeland. That is to say the “South Azerbaijan” is presented as a part of territory taken from Transcaucasian Turks.
Such undisguised falsification is exercised at the state level. Inspired by Baku’s position many delegates of the summit called to struggle for the unification of “South” and “North” Azerbaijans. Some journalists even said the state of Iran does not exist. Nevertheless this doesn’t prove that Azerbaijan has considerable influence of the Turkic population of Iran. This is a recurrent bluff of the Azeri propaganda machine. On the other hand in case the operation against Iran fails Baku will try to prove Iran it was a real courage to refuse the U.S. in providing military bases.
Will the Turkic population of Iran take the side of the United States?
I cannot answer for sure. I should mention that those who speak the Turkic language are not necessarily Turks. The north of Iran had for a long time been under the Turkish governance and many Persians living there speak Turkic. Besides, the tolerant national policy pursued by Iran has yielded fruit and today the citizenship and religion in Iran have a greater importance that the communication tongue. The overwhelming majority of the residents consider themselves Iranians. This factor bears a great unifying supply.
On the other hand, a certain number of Turkic-speaking Iranian fell under the influence of Turkey and Azerbaijan’s propaganda. I suppose the U.S. counts on their support. The inevitable repressions by Iran will increase the number those who dream of the unification of the “South” and “North” Azerbaijan. For its part, on the threshold of war Iran can deploy troops in the Turkic-speaking regions. This simple and essential maneuver will allow Iran to solve to problems at once: to prevent the possible treason by the Turkic population and deprive the Americans of the space for launching military operations.
Who will win the war if it starts?
All including Armenia will suffer from the war. It will be a huge-scale humanitarian catastrophe. Using its incontestable technical advantage America is capable to bomb all Iranian power plants, bridges, ports, railway stations and airports… There is also a threat of civic war that can be provoked by Washington and Baku. Huge flows of refugees will move to the neighbor states greatly damaging their economy. Besides, the U.S. allies being in the hitting radius in the region will to all appearance be attacked by Iran. In case Tehran succeeds in blocking the Persian and Oman gulfs, Europe will face economic collapse
Will Iran die in this Apocalypses?
I wouldn’t say so. Iran is a he country, whose territory and population exceeds Iraq’s four times. The U.S. hasn’t come out of the Iraqi quagmire yet. In case with Iran it will collide with a much more numerous, organized and idealized nation. The U.S. can bomb Iran but it can’t occupy it. Such an attempts will turn a catastrophe for the United States; a greater catastrophe than in Vietnam. Besides, if Iran is attacked the guerilla movement in Iraq will sharply activate and Americans will face the increased counteraction of Shiites. So, the White House should think over the consequences of the aggression. If the U.S. restricts to a “distant war” it will first confirm Iran’s assurance in obtaining nuclear weapon and second, will face the organized power of the Islamic organizations throughout the globe. Besides, the Arab factor will activate. Somehow or other the hostilities will reach America and the assault on Iran will become the start of the end of the super power.
«PanARMENIAN.Net», 03.04.2006
! Reproduction in full or in part is prohibited without reference to «PanARMENIAN.Net».
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