Revolutions in the Middle East

[Mos]

Re: Revolutions in the Middle East

Turkey is the least Muslim of all the Muslim majority states, it could unite the region under a Muslim banner but its citizens would be far from being Muslim. A lot like the United States that claims to be a Christian entity when it is highly secular. I don't believe, for example, that profit in the form of interest from banking is either a Muslim or Christian monetary policy.

I wouldn't say so. There is a good portion of Turks that are religious - of course there exists a culture of secularity, especially in the big cities. There's still great respect to Islam in Turkey. Iranians actually are culturally not that religious - just see the Iranians living outside of Iran.

[Federate]

Re: Revolutions in the Middle East

Turkey is the least Muslim of all the Muslim majority states, it could unite the region under a Muslim banner but its citizens would be far from being Muslim. A lot like the United States that claims to be a Christian entity when it is highly secular. I don't believe, for example, that profit in the form of interest from banking is either a Muslim or Christian monetary policy.

I agree, had the same thing in mind. Times are a-changin' in Turkey though with the rise of AK parti. Secularism might be slowly being chipped away, though I believe it will never be replaced. Eastern Turkey is pretty religious too compared to the rest.

[KanadaHye]

Re: Revolutions in the Middle East

Muslims uniting is even more unlikely than Arabs uniting but if it were to happen, Armenia would have reason to worry only because Turkey would be a heavyweight member.

Turkey is the least Muslim of all the Muslim majority states, it could unite the region under a Muslim banner but its citizens would be far from being Muslim. A lot like the United States that claims to be a Christian entity when it is highly secular. I don't believe, for example, that profit in the form of interest from banking is either a Muslim or Christian monetary policy.

[Federate]

Re: Revolutions in the Middle East

imagine if Muslims united.....(we would most likely be one of the first victims of such an alliance)

Muslims uniting is even more unlikely than Arabs uniting but if it were to happen, Armenia would have reason to worry only because Turkey would be a heavyweight member.

[Mos]

Re: Revolutions in the Middle East

imagine if Muslims united.....(we would most likely be one of the first victims of such an alliance)

[Federate]

Re: Revolutions in the Middle East

If the Arabs united, they would grab the world by its balls but esh Arab@ esh g'mna.

[KanadaHye]

Re: Revolutions in the Middle East

The question remains... is that also what Israel wants them to do. If Israel believes it has the might to gain more territory by creating enemies via political infiltration, it would be to their advantage. However, I hope that the citizens in the surrounding states don't fall into that trap. They should work together to build bonds as a stance against Israeli policy but abstain from being the aggressors.

[Federate]

Egyptian government finally doing what its population wants it to do.
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In Shift, Egypt Warms to Iran and Hamas, Israel�s Foes



CAIRO � Egypt is charting a new course in its foreign policy that has already begun shaking up the established order in the Middle East, planning to open the blockaded border with Gaza and normalizing relations with two of Israel and the West�s Islamist foes, Hamas and Iran.

Egyptian officials, emboldened by the revolution and with an eye on coming elections, say that they are moving toward policies that more accurately reflect public opinion. In the process they are seeking to reclaim the influence over the region that waned as their country became a predictable ally of Washington and the Israelis in the years since the 1979 peace treaty with Israel.

The first major display of this new tack was the deal Egypt brokered Wednesday to reconcile the secular Palestinian party Fatah with its rival Hamas. �We are opening a new page,� said Ambassador Menha Bakhoum, spokeswoman for the Foreign Ministry. �Egypt is resuming its role that was once abdicated.�

Egypt�s shifts are likely to alter the balance of power in the region, allowing Iran new access to a previously implacable foe and creating distance between itself and Israel, which has been watching the changes with some alarm. �We are troubled by some of the recent actions coming out of Egypt,� said one senior Israeli official, citing a �rapprochement between Iran and Egypt� as well as �an upgrading of the relationship between Egypt and Hamas.�

�These developments could have strategic implications on Israel�s security,� the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because the issues were still under discussion in diplomatic channels. �In the past Hamas was able to rearm when Egypt was making efforts to prevent that. How much more can they build their terrorist machine in Gaza if Egypt were to stop?�

Israel had relied on Egypt�s help to police the border with Gaza, where arms and other contraband were smuggled to Hamas through tunnels.

Balancing its new independence against its old allegiances, Egypt is keeping all its commitments, including the peace treaty with Israel, Ambassador Bakhoum emphasized, and she said that it hoped to do a better job complying with some human rights protocols it had signed.

But she said that the blockade of the border with Gaza and Egypt�s previous enforcement of it were both �shameful,� and that Egypt intended soon to open up the border �completely.�

At the same time, she said, Egypt is also in the process of normalizing its relations with Iran, a regional power that the United States considers a dangerous pariah.

�All the world has diplomatic relations with Iran with the exception of the United States and Israel,� Ambassador Bakhoum said. �We look at Iran as a neighbor in the region that we should have normal relations with. Iran is not perceived as an enemy as it was under the previous regime, and it is not perceived as a friend.�

Several former diplomats and analysts said that by staking out a more independent path, Egypt would also regain a measure of power that came with the flexibility to bestow or withhold support.

If Egypt believes Israel�s refusal to halt settlements in the West Bank is the obstacle to peace, for example, then �cooperating with the Israelis by closing the border to Gaza did not make sense, as much as one may differ with what Hamas has done,� argued Nabil Fahmy, dean of the public affairs school at the American University in Cairo and a former Egyptian ambassador to the United States.

Many Egyptian analysts, including some former officials and diplomats who served under then-President Hosni Mubarak, say they are thrilled with the shift. �This is the new feeling in Egypt, that Egypt needs to be respected as a regional power,� said Emad Gad, a foreign policy expert on relations with Israel at the official Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies.

Egypt is recognizing Hamas, he said, for the same reason the Egyptian prime minister recently had breakfast with his family at a public restaurant without heavily armed body guards: any official who wants to stay in government is thinking about elections. �This is a new thing in Egyptian history,� Mr. Gad said.

Mahmoud Shokry, a former Egyptian ambassador to Syria under Mr. Mubarak, said: �Mubarak was always taking sides with the U.S., but the new way of thinking is entirely different. We would like to make a model of democracy for the region, and we are ensuring that Egypt has its own influence.�

In the case of Iran, a competing regional power, Ms. Bakhoum noted that although Egypt broke off relations with the Islamist government after its 1979 revolution, the countries reopened limited relations in 1991 on the level of a charg� d�affaires, so normalizing relations was more of an elevation than a reopening.

The deal between the Palestinian factions capitalized on the forces unleashed around the region by Egypt�s revolution. In its aftermath, Hamas found its main sponsor, the Assad government of Syria, shaken by its own popular protest movement, while the Fatah government in the West Bank faced throngs of young people adapting the chants of the Egyptian uprising to the cause of Palestinian unity.

Egypt had laid out a proposal virtually identical to the current deal for both sides as early as 2009, several participants from all sides said. But the turning point came in late March, about six weeks after the revolution.

For the first time in years of talks the Hamas leaders were invited to the headquarters of the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs instead of merely meeting at a hotel or the intelligence agency � a signal that Egypt was now prepared to treat Hamas as a diplomatic partner rather than a security risk.

They also met with Egypt�s interim head of state, Field Marshal Mohamed Tantawi, the leader of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces and Mr. Mubarak�s longtime defense minister.

�When I was invited to the meeting in the Foreign Ministry, that was something different, and this is what the agreement grew out of,� said Taher Nounou of Hamas. �We definitely felt that there was more openness from the new Egyptian leadership.� Foreign Minister Nabil el-Araby told the Palestinians that �he doesn�t want to talk about the �peace process� any more, he wants to talk about the peace,� Ambassador Bakhoum said.

She said the Egyptian government was still studying how to open the border with Gaza, to help the civilians who lived there, and to determine which goods might be permitted. But she said the government had decided to move ahead with the idea.

Mona El-Naggar contributed reporting.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/29/world/middleeast/29egypt.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Another consequence of the fall of the Mubarak regime: Fatah and Hamas reach a deal on ending their civil war and forming a unity government.
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Analysis: Egypt�s role in Palestinian deal shows its new stance



JERUSALEM�The fanfare touting the end of internal Palestinian strife can justifiably be met with skepticism, if not cynicism.

In spite of the buoyant mood among Palestinians, a united Palestinian front against Israel still seems far away at best.

The new deal signed by the radical Islamist Hamas from Gaza and the more pragmatic national Fatah leadership from the West Bank will show its first cracks once the lofty principles of the agreement are applied to decisions on the ground.

When funds and influence are up for grabs, personal ambition has so far proven to have a larger impact on Palestinian politicians than the attainment of national goals.

Already figures on both sides are at odds over security coordination with Israel, the demands of international donors about recognizing Israel�s right to exist and shunning the use of violence in the Palestinian struggle for independence.

Much of this represents life as usual among the Palestinians.

There is, however, a different angle to the deal hammered out in secret talks in Cairo. Egypt appears to be back in the game.

The new regime played a pivotal role in attaining the agreement, its first diplomatic achievement so far. And Egyptian officials are insisting they will continue brokering the issues.

This is a change.

Until Hosni Mubarak�s fall, Cairo unequivocally took Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas�s side in the Palestinian struggle, isolating Hamas diplomatically and silently helping Israel to enforce the siege on Gaza. The aim was to force the Islamists� hand and compel them to compromise.

That is apparently a thing of the past. The new deal between Hamas and Fatah was made possible by a radical turnaround in Egypt�s stance, which put pressure on Abbas to make concessions he did not envisage in his worst nightmares. Hamas got almost everything it asked for.

Even more disconcerting for Israelis is the fact that the agreement came as a complete surprise to them and to the United States, Egypt�s most important allies in the region.

While Mubarak carefully coordinated his policy with the two other Western powers in the region, the new regime does everything to distance itself, publicly and behind the scenes, from the xxxish state.

The Palestinian entente is only one sign of many: Egypt has announced its wish to restore diplomatic relations with Iran. Cairo has released Hamas activists from its prisons, and smuggling through Sinai has reportedly increased.

This new policy is the new political elite deference to public sentiment that is intensely hostile to Israel. A new poll found that 54 per cent of Egyptians think that the peace accords with Israel should be abolished. A similar proportion sympathizes with Hamas. Even Amr Moussa, the presumed front-runner in the presidential race, has questioned the peace treaty recently and stated that in the conflict with Hamas, Egypt should never come out on Israel�s side.

In its sweeping prosecution of former state officials, one of the subjects garnering a lot of attention is a deal selling natural gas to Israel.

Two former ministers have been put on trial for �committing the crimes of harming the country�s interests, squandering public funds and enabling others to make financial profits through selling and exporting Egyptian gas to the state of Israel at a price below international market rates at the time of the contract.�

In December, Israel signed a 20-year contract with Egypt worth more than $10 billion. The indictment claims the deal in question cost Egypt losses worth more than $714 million.

Israel maintains that it pays twice as much as other Arab countries for Egypt�s gas.

But economic facts are of little relevance. Egypt�s new leadership faces immense challenges at home, and foreign scapegoats serve it well to deflect public anger. In light of the public mood, Cairo apparently has opted to distance itself visibly from Washington and Israel.

The new Egypt seems to seek to establish itself as an assertive leader of the Arab world, as opposed to its former intimate partnership with the West. For the U.S. and its allies, this spells more unpredictability, and less influence in one of the world�s most volatile and strategically important regions.

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/982307--analysis-egypt-s-role-in-palestinian-deal-shows-its-new-stance

[KanadaHye]

Re: Revolutions in the Middle East

How can a government possibly mess up keeping a measly 1 million citizens happy....


Bahrain: Key U.S. Military Hub

The tiny island nation of Bahrain plays a big role in America's Middle East strategy. In fact, more than 6,000 U.S. military personnel and contractors are located just five miles from where government security forces violently put down demonstrations this week.

Bahrain is also home to the U.S. Fifth Fleet, a major logistics hub for the U.S. Navy ships. The island is located halfway down the Persian Gulf, just off the coast of Saudi Arabia, and is something of a rest stop for U.S. Navy ships cruising the waters of the Gulf.

"It has facilities that can provide support to our ships, including, you know, fuel, water provisions, resupply," retired Rear Adm. Steve Pietropaoli says.

Those facilities have been resupplying warships for nearly a half-century, ever since Great Britain's fleet left the island. Bahrain provided major basing facilities and support for the armada of U.S. Navy ships sent for the first Persian Gulf War in 1990 and the Iraq War in 2003.

"Bahrain is an outstanding partner," Pietropaoli says. "It has been the enduring logistical support for the United States Navy operating in the Persian Gulf for 50 years."

These days, it's not like there are a large number of Navy ships stationed there, the way there are in Norfolk, Va., or San Diego. There's usually just a minesweeper or two. The Fifth Fleet operates a carrier and a ship full of Marines that are almost always under way.

"Bahrain is a facility which is not something measured in the number of ships that are there day by day," defense analyst Tony Cordesman says. Rather, he says, Bahrain's importance is facilitating the Fifth Fleet as it deals with a growing naval threat from Iran and piracy in places like Somalia.

Dealing with all those challenges is made simpler because of Bahrain's location. It's just across the Gulf from Iran, where the U.S. can keep an eye on that country and also ensure that the vital sea lanes of the Persian Gulf remain open and free of trouble.

So what does Bahrain get out of this relationship besides rent? It receives security guarantees from the United States.

That's just the start. The Bahraini Defense Force sends its personnel to the U.S. for training and it buys high-quality American weapons as well. American military sales to Bahrain have totaled nearly $1.5 billion in the past decade alone.

Those sales include everything from Apache and Cobra attack helicopters to F-16 warplanes, missile launchers and howitzers, plus more than 50 Abrams tanks — some of which now patrol Bahrain's capital of Manama.

http://www.npr.org/2011/02/19/133893...S-Military-Hub

[Federate]

Re: Revolutions in the Middle East

UAE also sent troops in I heard. This is nuts...